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Closer Rankings: How's the job security looking?

A mix of factors help decide who will and won't keep their closer job. Let's look at how it might shake out.

By Daniel Kelley
Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Job security is a huge thing for closers. Even a bad closer, if he has no one there behind him, is still likely to accrue saves one way or another.

Funnily enough (and no, this isn't a coincidence), the bad closers often don't have a strong reliever coming up behind them. So the best closers have job security because they're really stinkin' good, and the worst closers often have job security, because the alternative is that we let some terrible no-name save games.

The sweet spot of danger, then, is the middle-of-the-road closers. They're good, of course — good enough to become a closer to begin with. But they aren't spectacular. At the same time, they were just good enough to beat out another pitcher or pitchers for the gig, and those pitchers aren't going anywhere.

Basically, if you drafted Aroldis Chapman, woohoo, he's the closer as long as he's healthy. And if you ended up with Neftali Feliz, you know, woohoo, because he doesn't exactly have anyone breathing down his neck. Whatever save chances Texas gets, they will likely to go Feliz.

Today, I'm running through all 30 current closers in a test of job security. For the sake of this list, I'm assuming health, because "this guy will lose his job if he literally can't pitch" isn't much of an insight. It's pretty subjective, of course, but hey, I'm writing this. You clicked on it.

Aroldis Chapman — Well, let's see. He's the best reliever in the game, and there's only one other candidate for the spot with any real claim for it. Meanwhile, there isn't a closer-ready pitcher anywhere else to be seen in the Cincinnati bullpen. What, you were thinking Kevin Gregg?
If-he-struggles chance of a change: 0/10
Guy with best shot: Jumbo Diaz

David Robertson — The White Sox went and got Robertson because their bullpen was oh-my-god-cover-your-eyes bad last year. He's been great this season already, and the circumstances that would lead to a change are tough to fathom.
If-he-struggles chance of a change: 0/10
Guy with best shot: Zach Putnam or Zach Duke; basically someone named Zach

Joakim Soria — He would have been much further down this list a week ago, as the Tigers seemed pretty set on giving the job back to Joe Nathan whenever he got healthy again. Well, now Nathan's earliest possible health date is sometime next season, and the Tigers don't have many other guys possible for the role.
If-he-struggles chance of a change: 0/10
Guy with best shot: Joba Chamberlain

Glen Perkins — He's 32 now, but the numbers aren't slowing at all. He's at five baserunners allowed in eight innings, with no walks. The Twins won't give him a lot of save chances, so his numbers might not skyrocket, but there's no one around to replace him.
If-he-struggles chance of a change: 0/10
Guy with best shot: Casey Fien

Drew Storen — It hasn't been a great start for the Nationals' reliever, with 10 baserunners in seven innings, and at least two hits in each of his last three outings (one inning apiece). That said, he has struck out nine guys in seven innings, and the Nationals are only going to get better. And there aren't any strong candidates to replace him if he falters.
If-he-struggles chance of a change: 1/10
Guy with best shot: Blake Treinen right now; Casey Janssen if and when he gets healthy

Kenley Jansen — He's not around yet, as he works his way back from foot surgery. In the meantime, no one in the Dodgers' bullpen has shown enough to replace him. There is the worry about the possibility he doesn't do well upon his return, but overall, like I said:


If-he-struggles chance of a change: 1/10
Guy with best shot: Yimi Garcia, who has been surprisingly good so far

Craig Kimbrel — He's basically as good as Chapman, but while there's no one else in the Reds' bullpen to challenge Chapman, the Padres do have Joaquin Benoit there as a closer-in-waiting on the off chance something happens. I'm not expecting it, but Kimbrel's leash basically has to be shorter than Chapman's just for that reason.
If-he-struggles chance of a change: 2/10
Guy with best shot: Joaquin Benoit

Greg Holland — Wade Davis is so damn good. But if you assume Holland will be healthy in the next couple weeks — and it appears likely — the Royals like the setup they have. Holland in the ninth, Davis in the eighth, Kelvin Herrera in the seventh, their million other great relievers the rest of the time. (Seriously, so much relief goodness.) Once healthy, they ain't gonna fix what ain't broke.
If-he-struggles chance of a change: 2/10
Guy with best shot: Wade Davis

Trevor Rosenthal — After a frustrating start to 2014, Rosenthal more-or-less figured it out. This year, he's starting strong, with six baserunners in 8.2 innings and only one run so far. Jordan Walden has some closing experience, but the Cardinals are going to let Rosenthal go a while before even considering a move.
If-he-struggles chance of a change: 2/10
Guy with best shot: Jordan Walden

Jonathan Papelbon — Lost in all the talks of bad contracts and trade possibilities is that Papelbon has been really good with the Phillies, with a 2.38 ERA over the last four years. Yeah, it's a wild misuse of finances to have a closer making that much, particularly for an awful team, but as long as he's been there, he's handled business. Meanwhile, Ken Giles still has a 0.00 ERA, and a nice scouting profile, but he's also given up almost two baserunners an inning and six unearned runs.
If-he-struggles chance of a change: 3/10
Guy with best shot: Ken Giles

Steve Cishek — If the season had started April 11, Cishek would have four innings with no hits or walks allowed and three strikeouts. Unfortunately for Cishek, he started with five runs, six baserunners and one strikeout in his first 1.1 innings. Until further notice, I'm comfortable calling that a working-into-the-season period.
If-he-struggles chance of a change: 3/10
Guy with best shot: A.J. Ramos

Zach Britton — No one ever thought Britton would take the job and run with it last year, but he's been great with it. Meanwhile, the start-of-season closer last year, Tommy Hunter, has been terrible, and Darren O'Day's platoon splits don't portend good things in a closer role. If Britton were to falter, you can always trust Buck Showalter to make wine from water, but his leash is fairly long.
If-he-struggles chance of a change: 3/10
Guy with best shot: Tommy Hunter

Huston Street — There's nothing not to like about Street since the start of last year, with a  1.22 ERA in 66.1 innings and 48 saves in 51 chances. He's always been a health risk, but as long as he's healthy, he's good. Joe Smith had a fantastic year last year, but he hasn't started out as well this season.
If-he-struggles chance of a change: 4/10
Guy with best shot: Joe Smith

Koji Uehara — Before Saturday's mini-blowup, Uehara had six strikeouts and no walks across four innings since returning from the DL. Still, that's only four appearances, and things can change quickly. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have some decent relievers hanging around. Edward Mujica, Alexi Ogando, Junichi Tazawa. Uehara would have to go a long way down a bad road, but he's aging and has started to look inconsistent.
If-he-struggles chance of a change: 4/10
Guy with best shot: Edward Mujica

Francisco Rodriguez — His surface numbers the last two years have been okay, but every last little deeper number portends worry. He gives up too many homers, and that just isn't changing. On the other hand, the Brewers were desperate to sign Rodriguez after they failed to trade for Papelbon in the spring because they couldn't bear the idea of going into the season with Jonathan Broxton at closer.
If-he-struggles chance of a change: 4/10
Guy with best shot: Jonathan Broxton

Jason Grilli — There was a chance his career was over a year ago, after he blew up in Pittsburgh and didn't do much better in Los Angeles. He got a shot in Atlanta this season, looked good at the start of the spring, and suddenly became the closer when Kimbrel got dealt to San Diego. Suddenly, Grilli's a closer again and looking good. Jim Johnson has had a similar, if lesser, resurgence, but he's struggled of late. The job is Grilli's.
If-he-struggles chance of a change: 4/10
Guy with best shot: Jim Johnson

Sean Doolittle — If Tyler Clippard had taken the job and run with it to start the season, Doolittle's job might have been in serious jeopardy. Instead, Clippard has struggled more than expected, with 12 baserunners in 8.1. innings through Sunday's blown save. When Doolittle is healthy (three weeks, give or take), he'll take the job back.
If-he-struggles chance of a change: 4/10
Guy with best shot: Tyler Clippard

Neftali Feliz — There isn't a lot to love about Feliz right now. Bad team, iffy peripherals, rough results so far. The plus side for him, such as it is, is that the Rangers' bullpen, so often a strength in recent years, is awful right now. I think he has a long leash just because there isn't a great alternative.
If-he-struggles chance of a change: 4/10
Guy with best shot: Shawn Tolleson or Tanner Scheppers, depending on if the latter can round into form

Hector Rondon — Rondon doesn't get talked about as much as ... well, basically every single one of his teammates, but since becoming the closer last year he's been nothing but good. There are closer options in Chicago, but unless something big changes, it's hard to see why the Cubs would want to change.
If-he-struggles chance of a change: 5/10
Guy with best shot: Pedro Strop, probably, or maybe Jason Motte

Jeurys Familia — Okay, first off, the Mets aren't this good. They're going to start losing more, and when they do, Familia's numbers will fall as well. That said, he's been fantastic so far, especially for a guy who wasn't the closer to start the season. A couple weeks ago, the Mets were certain Bobby Parnell would regain the job when he was healthy; that's quiet now. Still, if Familia regresses as expected, they have options
If-he-struggles chance of a change: 5/10
Guy with best shot: Bobby Parnell

Fernando Rodney — I mentioned this in The Ticker LINK TO IT, but I'll say it again here. Rodney is no great shakes these days, but the Mariners aren't big fans of their other options. Still, this was a team that expected to compete this season, and they're struggling to start the season. They can't afford Rodney to hurt them for long, if he does that.
If-he-struggles chance of a change: 5/10
Guy with best shot: Danny Farquhar or Yoervis Medina

Addison Reed — Reed is bad. Maybe that's mean of me, and he's certainly a better pitcher than I'd ever be. But I wouldn't want him as my closer in real life or fantasy. He's walking everyone, and giving up hits to the rest of the guys. All that, and he's on one of the worst handful of teams in baseball, meaning he won't even help you that way in fantasy. Still, the only other good reliever in Arizona, Brad Ziegler, isn't a prototypical closer, and guys are loathe to go out on limbs.
If-he-struggles chance of a change: 5/10
Guy with best shot: Brad Ziegler

Cody Allen — With a different bullpen surrounding him, Allen might have lost his job already. He's been really bad. But the Indians don't have a likely replacement in waiting, and Allen has a track record of success before this season. They'll give him some chance to turn things around.
If-he-struggles chance of a change: 6/10
Guy with best shot: Bryan Shaw

Andrew Miller — He's been strong since seizing the job, and it's hard not to like his track record the last couple seasons. Still, since being a worry in spring, Dellin Betances has been really good in season, and he's a more prototypical closer. Miller has the job, but if he starts to struggle, his leash is certainly not that long.
If-he-struggles chance of a change: 7/10
Guy with best shot: Dellin Betances

Mark Melancon — His velocity issues are well-chronicled at this point. His results have at least improved of late, but it's hard to count on Melancon confidently right now, especially with Tony Watson pitching well behind him. He's done well enough the last year-plus that the Pirates will let him go for a bit, but Watson has already been discussed.
If-he-struggles chance of a change: 7/10
Guy with best shot: Tony Watson, or maybe Arquimedes Caminero in a twist ending

Luke Gregerson — The "closer battle" in Houston this spring never really made sense, as Gregerson is better than Chad Qualls in every way except career save totals. Still, if Gregerson does struggle, Qualls has shown he can do it for Houston, and he's already gotten two saves this season as Gregerson rests. As long as Gregerson does well, there's nothing Qualls can do, but if he starts to struggle, things could happen.
If-he-struggles chance of a change: 7/10
Guy with best shot: Chad Qualls

Santiago Casilla — I might be calling this riskier than it actually is, but I have not been impressed by Casilla. He doesn't strike many guys out, he walks too many, and he gives up hits. Only the very surface numbers are exciting, and those aren't by much. He took the job from Sergio Romo last year; I wouldn't be shocked if it went the other way this year.
If-he-struggles chance of a change: 7/10
Guy with best shot: Sergio Romo

Adam Ottavino — He's been spectacular this year. Shockingly so. The Rockies, though, have a long list of former closers in the bullpen — John Axford, Rafael Betancourt, LaTroy Hawkins. Ottavino doesn't have a track record, and he's already missed a couple days with some soreness. The Rockies don't have any reason to let Ottavino struggle for long, if it comes to that.
If-he-struggles chance of a change: 8/10
Guy with best shot: John Axford

Miguel Castro — Example No. 8,547,268 why spring training stats are overrated: Castro was a spring darling this year, but has looked much less exciting this season, including three runs in his last four outings. Thirteen baserunners and only seven strikeouts in 9.2 innings. Meanwhile, Brett Cecil looms, and while he's looked bad himself, the Blue Jays can't let a single closer hurt them for long.
If-he-struggles chance of a change: 8/10
Guy with best shot: Brett Cecil, maybe Roberto Osuna

Jake McGee — It sounds like McGee will get his job back with he's healthy in a couple weeks. Still, Brad Boxberger has looked good in his stead, and the Rays and Kevin Cash have shown a penchant for being more flexible in their closer usage, meaning there's every possibility they'll go back and forth with the righty Boxberger and the lefty McGee as situations warrant.
If-he-struggles chance of a change: 9/10
Guy with best shot: Brad Boxberger

Okay, that took way too long. On to the rankings. As always, there are two rankings, the Right-Now list and the Rest-Of-Season list. No "Thoughts" column this week, since I hit on basically everything in my novel above:

Right-Now Rankings

Rank Player Team Last Week
1 Aroldis Chapman CIN 1
2 Craig Kimbrel SDP 2
3 Wade Davis KCR 3
4 Joakim Soria DET 5
5 David Robertson CWS 4
6 Huston Street LAA 6
7 Andrew MIller NYY 10
8 Trevor Rosenthal SLC 12
9 Drew Storen WAS 7
10 Glen Perkins MIN 11
11 Koji Uehara BOS 9
12 Adam Ottavino COL 16
13 Zach Britton BAL 13
14 Steve Cishek MIA 14
15 Jonathan Papelbon PHI 15
16 Jason Grilli ATL 19
17 Jeurys Familia NYM 28
18 Brad Boxberger TAM 17
19 Hector Rondon CHC 20
20 Mark Melancon PIT 8
21 Francisco Rodriguez MIL 23
22 Luke Gregerson HOU 21
23 Fernando Rodney SEA 26
24 Santiago Casilla SFG 25
25 Yimi Garcia LAD NR
26 Neftali Feliz TEX NR
27 Cody Allen CLE 22
28 Tyler Clippard OAK 18
29 Miguel Castro TOR 27
30 Addison Reed ARI NR

Rest-Of-Season Rankings

Rank Player Team Last Week
1 Aroldis Chapman CIN 1
2 Craig Kimbrel SDP 2
3 Joakim Soria DET 23
4 David Robertson CWS 3
5 Huston Street LAA 8
6 Greg Holland KCR 5
7 Kenley Jansen LAD 6
8 Trevor Rosenthal SLC 7
9 Andrew Miller NYY 12
10 Glen Perkins MIN 10
11 Drew Storen WAS 4
12 Koji Uehara BOS 11
13 Steve Cishek MIA 14
14 Zach Britton BAL 13
15 Jason Grilli ATL 20
16 Adam Ottavino COL 16
17 Jonathan Papelbon PHI 15
18 Jeurys Familia NYM 30
19 Hector Rondon CHC 18
20 Luke Gregerson HOU 19
21 Mark Melancon PIT 9
22 Wade Davis KCR 28
23 Sean Doolittle OAK 21
24 Francisco Rodriguez MIL 22
25 Jake McGee TAM 27
26 Fernando Rodney SEA 25
27 Santiago Casilla SFG 24
28 Brad Boxberger TAM 29
29 Cody Allen CLE 17
30 Neftali Feliz TEX NR