Reminder: Always double check the lineup card before rosters lock to make sure that a player you've chosen to roster is playing that day.
Tier 1 pitching
P- Felix Hernandez vs. Minnesota Twins, $11,500
Hernandez is the best play for a pitcher tomorrow. He faces a terrible Twins offense that is last in the American League with a team wRC+ of 67. The Twins also have the lowest amount of home runs in the AL at 8; Hernandez's teammate Nelson Cruz has the same amount of home runs as the entire Twins team. Hernandez appears to be over his quad problem and is a strong candidate to rack up 15+ points.
Tier 2 pitching
If you decide you would rather gamble on a cheaper, high upside pitcher and load up on pricier hitters, I think these two pitchers have the highest upside:
Danny Salazar vs. Detroit Tigers, $8,100
Salazar was electric in his first start in the big leagues this year, striking out 42% of the batters he faced and generating an incredible 19% swinging strike% (although against the same lousy Twins offense mentioned above). He averaged about 96 mph on his fastball and posted an excellent FIP/xFIP combo at 2.90/1.87.
Not everything was great about the start, though, and two stats jump out at me. 1. Salazar gave up a hard hit ball in 27% of his opponents at bats, which is significantly below average; and 2. his first pitch strike percentage of 50% was also significantly below average. Pitchers have much better results through 0-1 counts than 1-0 counts, and part of Salazar's problems last year were working up high pitch counts early in games. Exiting games early can be a problem for FanDuel scoring. Salazar can mitigate that to some degree with high strikeout totals, but he's still a little risky to bank on for me at the moment. I support taking a shot with him in a large tournament format, though, because the ceiling is tremendous.
Carlos Martinez vs. Milwaukee Brewers, $8,200
The Brewers have the worst offense in baseball by wRC+ at 57 and they have lost Jonathan Lucroy for the foreseeable future with a foot injury. Martinez hasn't pitched to his potential yet this year (don't be fooled by the 2 ERA, his peripherals all point to fortunate outcomes), but his stuff is filthy. Like Salazar, Martinez is a high ceiling guy who can payoff in a big tournament if everything clicks for him.
Hitters: Coors Field
The Giants face RHP Eddie Butler tomorrow in Denver, who ZiPS projects to have a 5.33 ERA for the rest of the season. You are going to want to get some players from this game into your lineup tomorrow.
C- Buster Posey, $4,400
If there was ever a time to pay for Buster Posey, this series in Denver is it. Jonathan Lucroy, Travis d'Arnaud, Devin Mesoraco and Wilin Rosario are either injured or in the minor leagues, so the position is thin tomorrow. I am comfortable paying a big price for Posey here and compensating by finding undervalued players elsewhere.
1B- Brandon Belt, $3,400
Belt has got off to a slow start, but a player with his talent priced this low in Coors Field is very appealing. Belt has hit RHP significantly better than LHP since making a swing adjustment in April of 2013, and Coors Field is the perfect environment for Belt to kick his production into gear.
SS- Brandon Crawford, $3,000
Crawford has some pop in his bat: he's been above average offensively since the start of 2014, and I like the combination of potential production+price with him against Butler in Coors.
Rockies- OF Carlos Gonzalez, $3,500
CarGo hasn't been having good outcomes, largely due to a wildly unsustainable .196 BABIP, and it's led to his price taking a massive drop. A player of CarGo's talent in this run scoring environment priced at $3,500 screams bargain, and he's going to start having better results as his BABIP normalizes. Take advantage of his low price now.
Follow me on Twitter at @TimFinn521, I usually tweet out more good options as lineups are released.