Reminder: Always double check the lineup card before rosters lock to make sure that a player you've chosen to roster is playing that day.
P- Jacob deGrom vs. Miami Marlins, $9,400
deGrom at this price is my favorite choice at pitcher for the 7:05 pm EST games. Citi Field is one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the game and deGrom has the swing and miss stuff to rack up a high strikeout total. deGrom owns a career FIP of 2.72 with a 25% strikeout rate. His career FIP against RHB is 2.5, and Miami's meat of the order is very RHB heavy with with Giancarlo Stanton, Martin Prado and Mike Morse. Mat Latos opposes deGrom, and with Latos' stuff diminishing in the last two years, I lean towards the Mets being the favorites in this matchup.
P- Carlos Martinez vs. Cincinnati Reds, $7,900
For the early games, Martinez' low price jumps out at me. Martinez faced the Reds last weekend at Great American Ballpark and racked up 8 strikeouts in 6 IP with only 2 runs allowed. This park environment will be more neutral, and Martinez flashed a nasty change up that will be huge for improving his production against LHB, which has been his one Achilles heel to this point. Martinez sits in the mid 90s with his fastball and breaks off a fierce curve that generates a lot of swings and misses. He's a good bet to go 6 innings with 6 or more strikeouts with above average run prevention, which would field anywhere from 10-16 points, depending on if his team scores runs for him.
I was also tempted to go with the high upside of Danny Salazar against a weak Minnesota Twins offense, but he's too much of a risk not go deep enough into the game, which would hurt the IP point total. Martinez is the safer bet, but I wouldn't be opposed to going with Salazar in a multiple entry.
Seattle Mariners hitters vs. Colby Lewis, specifically:
OF- Seth Smith vs. Colby Lewis, $2,600
Colby Lewis gives up a lot of hard contact and Smith has been batting second in the order in front of Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager. Smith owns a career 123 wRC+ against RHP, and Lewis' FIP last year against RHB was 4.8. I think it's likely Smith hits the ball well against Lewis and will be in good position to score runs if/when he gets on base.
OF- Dustin Ackley vs. Colby Lewis, $3,000
Last July, Ackley changed his process at the plate and became one of the best performers in hard contact in baseball. He's continued that in 2015, posting a hard hit% of 26%, which is among the best in the game. The negative is that he's been batting 7th in Seattle's lineup, but even at that low batting spot, I really like this matchup. Lewis gives up a lot of hard contact and Ackley generates a lot of hard contact. It's a recipe for production.
2B- Robinson Cano vs. Colby Lewis, $3,900
Like Ackley, Cano is at the top of the league in hard contact at roughly 26%, and as stated above, Lewis gives up a lot of hard contact. Cano's wRC+ against RHP is about 155 the last two seasons, and Lewis' FIP was about 4.8 against LHB last year. This is a terrific matchup.
Follow me on Twitter at @TimFinn521, I usually tweet out more good options as lineups are released.