In seemingly less than one calendar year, Manuel Margot has gone from top dynasty sleeper to over-hyped sell high candidate. Observant owners were on Margot pre-2014 after his 50 game stint in short-season ball hinted at a high-AVG, high SB total fantasy player. This year, Margot rewarded those who bought in early by dropping a monster .293/.356/.462 triple slash with 12 HRs and 42 SBs across Low-A and High-A. It's my opinion though that the pendulum has shifted too much on Margot and fantasy owners are distracted by the gaudy numbers and not necessarily the underlying skillset.
Signed out of the Dominican Republic by the Boston Red Sox, Margot is 20 years old and likely headed back to Hi-A to start the 2015 season. He's been advanced for his age throughout his minor league career, which makes his numbers all the more impressive. Margot is an elite athlete and has flashed plus potential in CF thanks to some big wheels and a solid arm. Offensively, Margot has quick hands and a short stroke that doesn't generate much power, but he shows the ability to make consistent contact. At 5'11" and 170 lbs Margot doesn't have the size of a double-digit HR threat, but he should be able to hold his plus-plus speed long into his career.
Where the profile falls off for Manuel Margot is the amount of projection left in his offensive game and how much his elite speed can make a difference at the highest level. Scouts rave about his straight-line speed, but note that he doesn't get the best jumps on the base paths and lacks the natural instincts of most great base stealers. Margot relies heavily on his skill, which while far and away superior in A-ball, will be no match for catchers in the Show. He's still very young and there's a great chance he improves in his base stealing ability, but when the numbers vastly out produce the scouting reports, that's typically a time to sell high regardless of your dynasty team's current direction. The other somewhat troubling sign for Margot's future fantasy production is the fringe hit and power tools. Both could play up to average, but there's also a chance neither one gets there. Margot is aggressive at the plate and will need to continue to fill out if the power is going to fully come around.
This write-up ended up being a little more pessimistic then I was thinking it would be. Margot is still a valuable fantasy asset, and the ceiling could still be a .270 AVG, 12+ HR, and 30+SB hitter. If you're a believer in him, then ignore my warnings and go for it, because if it all click's he's an all-star caliber player. My concern is that there's still a lot of obstacles in his development, and his value in fantasy circles is the highest it's ever been. The Red Sox are loaded in the OF so Margot will simmer slowly in the minors until he's absolutely ready. Given the current development road ahead of him, that could work well in his favor.