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by Jason Hunt
It's been an odd couple years for the Yankees, having missed the playoffs the past two seasons after a 20 year run that included five World Championships and 17 playoff appearances, but that wasn't even the big story last year. It came time for the changing of the guard in the Bronx, as the Captain retired after 20 seasons and 3,465 hits. The void left by Jeter's retirement is no small thing, but the Yankees will look again to compete for a World Series title in 2015.
The biggest gaps in the lineup coming into the offseason were at shortstop and third base, and were able to address both needs in different manners. Chase Headley had been the third baseman at the end of the season after a midseason trade brought him from San Diego, and after testing the free agent waters, re-signed with the Yankees on a 4 year, $52 million contract. They also were able to go out and get a starting shortstop from the Diamondbacks, acquiring Didi Gregorius by sending starting pitcher Shane Greene to Detroit. While Gregorius isn't remotely the kind of impact player that the Yankees usually go acquire, he should be a solid defensive shortstop and at least decent at the plate, both of which the team really needs. They'll also be looking for bounce back years from Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran, and of course there's Alex Rodriguez. Rodriguez is expected to be the spend the majority of his time as a designated hitter, although he's expected to be in a platoon with the newly-acquired Garrett Jones. After reporting for Spring Training, the media circus surrounding A-Rod has died down somewhat, but we will see whether it roars back to life once the season begins.
The starting rotation has more questions than is ideal at this point. They were hoping from a better year from staff ace C.C. Sabathia after a down 2013 season, but he was limited to just eight starts due to a knee injury, and it's not clear which version of himself he will be. The Yankees' biggest acquisition an offseason ago was Japanese starter Masahiro Tanaka, who was excellent from the get-go. Unfortunately, a tear in his UCL kept him from pitching for nearly three months, and there remains the potential for the injury to knock him out again at some point in the future. Michael Pineda was excellent after he returned from his own injuries in August, and will look to build on that with a full season this time around. They lost starters Hiroki Kuroda (Japan) and Brandon McCarthy (Dodgers) via free agency, but were able to add a high-upside starter in Nathan Eovaldi in a trade with the Marlins. There is the potential for four above-average starting pitchers if they can all stay healthy, but that is a big question at this time.
In the bullpen, Dellin Betances was outstanding in his first full season in the majors, striking out 135 batters in 90 innings while allowing a ridiculously low 46 hits. It was assumed that he would take over the closer's role with David Robertson leaving via free agency, but it's not a guarantee after the team went out and signed the top reliever on the market (Andrew Miller) and gave him a 4 year, $36 million contract. The Yankees are being vague right now about which one will be the closer, potentially leading to them both being undervalued in fantasy leagues. They've remade the rest of their bullpen this offseason as well, acquiring two relievers from the Braves and another from the Pirates.
The farm is in another bit of an up-and-down wave, as there have been a number of prospects that have vaulted up rankings this year with strong performances. Both of our top prospects, Aaron Judge and Luis Severino, were ranked at #9 and not ranked at all in last year's list, and have jumped up rankings across the web. Meanwhile, two of our top three prospects from last year dropped off the list entirely, and have fallen almost completely off the radar. Overall the system is stronger than it has been in recent years, but remains more of a middle-range system than a top end one.
Overall, the team has the potential to be a contender this year if their health breaks right and they see some improved performance over last year. They have a strong lineup from top to bottom, and the potential for an excellent pitching staff. There are assets in the minors that can be used should a specific need arise during the year, and addressed either via trade or call-up. They just need a bit of luck in having it all come together as hoped.
2014 Graduates
The following players have surpassed their rookie maximums of 130 AB, 50 IP, or 45 days of service time.
Yangervis Solarte (AB), Dellin Betances (IP), Masahiro Tanaka (IP), Shane Greene (IP), Chase Whitley (IP), Vidal Nuno (IP/trade)
There are likely to be two key opportunities as Spring Training progresses for the Yankees. Second base was a fairly large disaster last year after the departure of Robinson Cano to Seattle, as Brian Roberts manned the position for most of the year before Stephen Drew was acquired. Drew was re-signed this offseason, but there is the potential for our #5 prospect, Rob Refsnyder, to debut and potentially take over the job long-term. The other opportunity is in the 5th starter role, as Adam Warren may be the leading candidate amongst a number of minor-league signings like Scott Baker and Kyle Davies. There's also the possibility that we see our #2 prospect, Luis Severino, before too long. The only other prospect I would anticipate reaching the majors and having an impact would be one of last year's draft picks, college reliever Jacob Lindgren, but I don't expect him to get save opportunities in the near future.
by Brian Creagh
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1. Aaron Judge (OF) |
Photo Credit: Kim Klement - USA Today Sports |
2014 FANTASY STATISTICS | ||||
AVG | R | HR | RBI | SB |
0.308 | 80 | 17 | 78 | 1 |
2014 SECONDARY STATISTICS | ||||
PA | OBP% | SLG% | BB% | K% |
563 | 0.419 | 0.486 | 15.81% | 23.27% |
OTHER INFORMATION | ||||
AGE | Bats | Throws | 2014 Levels | |
22 | R | R | A-A+ | |
Roster Status: Protect after 2016 Season | ||||
ETA to Majors: 2017 |
Judge ended 2014 with a combined line of .308/.419/.486 with 17 HRs in 131 games evenly split across Low-A and High-A. The offensive production should be tempered slightly by the fact that Judge was a 22 year old college bat playing A-ball, but the realization of the raw power is an encouraging sign nonetheless. Judge did also strike out a ton in his debut with 131 K's in the 131 games. It's not a death sentence for a power bat, but something that will need to be refined as he develops.
Right field seems to be the ultimate landing spot for Judge thanks to a big arm that can handle the position. His offensive development hinges on his ability to control his 6'7" frame and make enough contact to let his power play. Some scouts have noted concern that advanced pitching in AA and above will be too much for him to handle and the swing and miss in his game will negate the rest of his value. 2015 is shaping up to be a huge year for Judge to prove scouts wrong and take another big step in his development. I'm a believer in Judge and feel the hit tool is developing later for most due to his big body and the additional coordination that comes with controlling it.
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2. Luis Severino (RHP) |
Photo Credit: Kim Klement - USA Today Sports |
2014 FANTASY STATISTICS | ||||
W | SV | ERA | WHIP | K |
6 | 0 | 2.47 | 1.06 | 127 |
2014 SECONDARY STATISTICS | ||||
IP | HR/9 | GO/AO | BB% | K% |
113 | 0.20 | 1.56 | 5.91% | 27.79% |
OTHER INFORMATION | ||||
AGE | Bats | Throws | 2014 Levels | |
20 | R | R | A-AA-A+ | |
Roster Status: Protect after 2015 Season | ||||
ETA to Majors: Late 2015 |
2014 saw Severino pass through three separate levels and see success at every step. The majority of his season was spent in Low-A, but his success warranted a promotion to High-A, and shortly after a promotion to AA. His combine line was 113 innings, 2.47 ERA, 10.1 K/9, and 2.2 BB/9. Big numbers for a starter and worthy of the Top 50 rankings he's garnering from every major publication. In our fantasy-focused list, I have him sitting at the #100 spot currently, with a chance of moving him down slightly as a tweak the list.
His arsenal is built around a lethal fastball/changeup combo and a developing slider to boot. Severino's fastball is a plus-plus offering sitting 93-96 mph with an explosive late movement. The velocity sits comfortably at 97 in short bursts, another point in favor of moving him to a set-up role. His release is loose and consistent, which helps his advanced changeup play to its ceiling. The change has bottom-dropping action and looks just like his fastball out of his hand. The slider is too inconsistent at this point and not thrown with enough velocity sitting at 83-86 mph with regularity. The development of an average slider is crucial to Severino being taken seriously as a SP prospect. I'd recommend selling high on Severino as he's getting a ton of love on prospect lists at the moment. If he sticks as a starter, I don't believe the huge strikeout numbers will stick, that's not a common result of the fastball/changeup guys.
3. Ian Clarkin (LHP) |
2014 FANTASY STATISTICS | ||||
W | SV | ERA | WHIP | K |
4 | 0 | 3.12 | 1.25 | 75 |
2014 SECONDARY STATISTICS | ||||
IP | HR/9 | GO/AO | BB% | K% |
75 | 0.700 | 1.100 | 7.57% | 24.67% |
OTHER INFORMATION | ||||
AGE | Bats | Throws | 2014 Levels | |
19 | L | L | A-A+ | |
Roster Status: Protect after 2017 Season | ||||
ETA to Majors: 2018 |
Across two levels in 2014, Clarkin threw 75 innings with a 3.12 ERA, 9.0 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. All said, it was a relatively light workload for the 19 year old and so I will keep expectations modest until we get a full workload out of Clarkin. Clarkin showed great control last year and consistently pounded the strike zone with all of his offerings. He's an athletic kid and with his 6'2" frame gets good downward plane on his pitches. There is some projection left on the body and he could fill out in the next few years. Regardless, he has the frame to log the heavy workload of an SP and any physical growth will hopefully come with an increase in velocity.
Clarkin features a fastball, changeup, and curveball and all are projectable pitches. His fastball and curveball look to be his best pitches and his changeup, like many high school pitchers, is the last pitch to develop. Command is a plus with all of his pitches, and if the fastball can consistently sit in the low-90's and the curveball can maintain that sharp break deep into games, then Clarkin has the potential to be a #2 starter. A lot would need to go right for that happen, but the projection is still there. A weakness in Clarkin's profile is the lack of movement on his fastball. He's still a lanky kid and will need to develop control of his body/delivery. There's potential for him to develop into a serious fantasy threat, but there's a long development road ahead so I don't advise jumping all in on him yet.
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4. Gary Sanchez (C) |
Photo Credit: Kim Klement - USA Today Sports |
2014 FANTASY STATISTICS | ||||
AVG | R | HR | RBI | SB |
0.270 | 48 | 13 | 65 | 1 |
2014 SECONDARY STATISTICS | ||||
PA | OBP% | SLG% | BB% | K% |
477 | 0.338 | 0.406 | 9.01% | 19.08% |
OTHER INFORMATION | ||||
AGE | Bats | Throws | 2014 Levels | |
21 | R | R | AA | |
Roster Status: On 40 Man Roster (1 Option Left) | ||||
ETA to Majors: Late 2015 |
Sanchez spent the entire year in AA and put up similar mediocre numbers as previous seasons. In 110 games Sanchez hit .270/.330/.406 with 13 HRs. If Sanchez was a sure-fire catching prospect, you'd take that line all day, but with his likely relegation to 1B or even DH, the power needs to be a lot better than a .406 slugging percentage. I should note that the decrease in power has come with an increase in contact skills. It appears Sanchez has chosen to sacrifice some power for putting more balls in play. The only real plus tool Sanchez can hang his hat on for fantasy owners is a plus power potential that has yet to fully materialize. It's tough to be down on a guy who once had potential for fantasy stardom, but the dream appears to be just about dead for Gary Sanchez.
5. Rob Refsnyder (2B) |
2014 FANTASY STATISTICS | ||||
AVG | R | HR | RBI | SB |
0.318 | 82 | 14 | 63 | 9 |
2014 SECONDARY STATISTICS | ||||
PA | OBP% | SLG% | BB% | K% |
577 | 0.387 | 0.497 | 9.53% | 18.20% |
OTHER INFORMATION | ||||
AGE | Bats | Throws | 2014 Levels | |
23 | R | R | AAA-AA | |
Roster Status: Protect after 2015 Season | ||||
ETA to Majors: 2015 |
Refsnyder will be mostly an AVG-only guy but there's enough pop to make him an interesting fantasy play. He won't steal many bases despite some decent minor league numbers - his SB output has been decreasing every year as he faces better defenses. His 2014 combined line between AA and AAA was .318/.387/.497 with 14 HRs and 9 SBs in 137 games. The HRs and the triple slash are going to be difficult to duplicate, but Refsnyder will pitch in at every category. There's a very high probability Refsnyder becomes a .270 AVG with 10 HR guy at the 2B position. He won't cost much in dynasty leagues, and should be able to hold down 2B for a few years.
6. Jorge Mateo (SS) |
2014 FANTASY STATISTICS | ||||
AVG | R | HR | RBI | SB |
0.276 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 11 |
2014 SECONDARY STATISTICS | ||||
PA | OBP% | SLG% | BB% | K% |
65 | 0.354 | 0.397 | 10.77% | 26.15% |
OTHER INFORMATION | ||||
AGE | Bats | Throws | 2014 Levels | |
19 | R | R | Rk | |
Roster Status: Protect after 2015 Season | ||||
ETA to Majors: 2019 |
Looks at Mateo have been limited during his time with the Yankees, but scouting reports have all been positive. In his 3 seasons with the organization, Mateo has hit .280/.375/.431 with 8 HRs and 64 SBs in 93 games. SB totals at the lower levels are always tough to project because the quality of defense is so poor, but it does seem Mateo knows how to swipe a bag when he gets the opportunity (only 12 caught stealings in the 3 seasons). Mateo has quality bat speed and loose hands which lead scouts to project a possible league average hit and power tools. If that comes together, Mateo is a potential all-star with .280ish AVG, double digit HR numbers, and 40+ SBs. That's the absolute dream scenario. Reality will probably be somewhere less than that, but while he's so far away and the looks have been so limited it's fun to at least dream on a kid like Mateo.
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7. Greg Bird (1B) |
Photo Credit: Kim Klement - USA Today Sports |
2014 FANTASY STATISTICS | ||||
AVG | R | HR | RBI | SB |
0.271 | 52 | 14 | 43 | 1 |
2014 SECONDARY STATISTICS | ||||
PA | OBP% | SLG% | BB% | K% |
441 | 0.376 | 0.472 | 14.29% | 22.00% |
OTHER INFORMATION | ||||
AGE | Bats | Throws | 2014 Levels | |
21 | L | R | A+-AA | |
Roster Status: Protect after 2015 Season | ||||
ETA to Majors: Late 2016 |
Across Hi-A and AA, Bird hit .271/.376/.472 with 14 HRs and a 97:63 K:BB ratio. He struggled to make contact in a small sample at AA, but the power definitely carried over as he hit 7 HRs in 27 games. There are a handful of 1B options currently in the Yankee organization - Teixeira is there now, McCann figures to move there in a year or two, Gary Sanchez will likely move there in a year. All of those options will get priority over Bird, but he has time to wait at just 22 years old. Bird is going to move up this list or fall off it completely based on how he produces at the AA level.
8. Leonardo Molina (OF) |
2014 FANTASY STATISTICS | ||||
AVG | R | HR | RBI | SB |
0.193 | 18 | 1 | 21 | 6 |
2014 SECONDARY STATISTICS | ||||
PA | OBP% | SLG% | BB% | K% |
217 | 0.267 | 0.260 | 8.76% | 23.50% |
OTHER INFORMATION | ||||
AGE | Bats | Throws | 2014 Levels | |
16 | R | R | Rk | |
Roster Status: Protect after 2017 Season | ||||
ETA to Majors: 2019 |
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9. Jacob Lindgren (LHP) |
Photo Credit: Kim Klement - USA Today Sports |
2014 FANTASY STATISTICS | ||||
W | SV | ERA | WHIP | K |
2 | 1 | 2.19 | 1.01 | 48 |
2014 SECONDARY STATISTICS | ||||
IP | HR/9 | GO/AO | BB% | K% |
24.2 | 0.00 | 9.00 | 12.50% | 46.15% |
OTHER INFORMATION | ||||
AGE | Bats | Throws | 2014 Levels | |
21 | L | L | AA-A+-A-Rk | |
Roster Status: Protect after 2017 Season | ||||
ETA to Majors: Late 2015 |
10. Luis Torrens (C) |
2014 FANTASY STATISTICS | ||||
AVG | R | HR | RBI | SB |
0.256 | 32 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
2014 SECONDARY STATISTICS | ||||
PA | OBP% | SLG% | BB% | K% |
254 | 0.331 | 0.383 | 7.87% | 19.69% |
OTHER INFORMATION | ||||
AGE | Bats | Throws | 2014 Levels | |
18 | R | R | A--A-Rk | |
Roster Status: Protect after 2016 Season | ||||
ETA to Majors: 2019 |
Other Interesting Prospects
by Brian Creagh
Miguel Andujar - Another young, toolsy prospect Andujar is a slugging 3B 19 year old. He is still learning to turn his raw power into in-game power, but he has quick hands and generates good backspin when he makes contact. He'll take a long time to fully develop, so I don't recommend buying in quite yet, but if the power starts to materialize you'll want to jump on board. There is a very strong chance Andujar finds himself in the Top 10 of next year's list and momentum will start to pick up on this kid.
More on the Yankees and the minors
About the Authors
Jason Hunt is a contributing writer for Fake Teams, specializing in the minor leagues and prospects.
Follow him on Twitter @jasonsbaseball
Brian Creagh is a contributing writer for Fake Teams, specializing in fantasy baseball and the minor leagues.
Follow him on Twitter @BrianCreagh