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Fantasy First Base Rankings: Steamer Projections for 2015

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Let's take a look at what the Steamer projections have in store for the first baseman we ranked this week.

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Projecting player stats for the upcoming season, for me, has always been a gut feel. I usually look at other project systems like ZiPS, Steamer, Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster, but I usually look at what the player has done in the past and come up with my own projection. No formulas or spreadsheets,

Sometimes I have been on target, while other times, I have been way off. Attempting to predict how a player is going to perform is not an easy task. Projecting anything for which you have no control over is very hard. Just ask the weather forecasters after the failed "snowmageddon" here on the east coast a week ago.

One of the more well known projection systems out there is ZiPS, which is created by Dan Szymborski, and published over at FanGraphs. Another projection system which FanGraphs publishes for all to see is the Steamer projections. I am going to publish the Steamer projections here for each position we cover in our Consensus Rankings Series to help you prepare for your drafts and keeper league decisions in the coming weeks and months.

Here is more on Steamer from both the Steamer Projections website and from FanGraphs:

Steamer Projections is a projection system for baseball player statistics. The system was created and is maintained and operated by Jared Cross, Dash Davidson, and Peter Rosenbloom. Dash and Peter just graduated from college and are both former students of Jared - a high school science and statistics teacher. The three creators share a deep passion and interest for baseball and the statistics that are intrinsic to the game.

The project began in the Fall of 2008 at Saint Ann's School in Brooklyn, New York. Saint Ann's offers its students an independent research program where they may embark on collaborative projects motivated by personal interest together with a teacher. The Steamer Projections system is the result of this program.

What began as an explorative academic pursuit soon became a passionate and time-consuming endeavor as we quickly began to expand and improve our system - and increase the requisite amount of work - as our skill and knowledge of the intricate process of statistical projection improved.

Now we are in the midst of working on the seventh iteration of our system, which has released a full set of projections for MLB players for each of the past five seasons by the end of March. We are still constantly tinkering on and tweaking Steamer Projections in the hope of making it ever more accurate and efficient. We are also investigating possible business partnerships with fantasy sports websites and MLB teams to leverage the predicative power of our system.  You can find our full pre-season and daily projections at www.fangraphs.com and at www.razzball.com.

Steamer - This uses the playing time projection from our (FanGraphs) depth charts. These are temporarily using playoff rosters, so there may be the occasional weird playing time allocation. Playing time may be updated on a nightly basis.

So let's take a look what the Steamer projections have in store for the first baseman we ranked earlier this week. I did not include stolen bases since the majority of first baseman do not run.

Rank

Name

PA

AB

HR

R

RBI

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

wOBA

wRC+

1

Paul Goldschmidt

649

553

31

89

91

0.283

0.380

0.523

0.902

0.389

146

2

Miguel Cabrera

648

566

32

96

105

0.317

0.394

0.557

0.952

0.408

164

3

Jose Abreu

611

542

35

86

100

0.285

0.358

0.537

0.895

0.385

146

4

Edwin Encarnacion

636

549

35

91

101

0.268

0.359

0.515

0.873

0.378

142

5

Anthony Rizzo

655

567

32

89

94

0.271

0.36

0.503

0.863

0.376

139

6

Adrian Gonzalez

642

581

24

77

85

0.280

0.34

0.461

0.801

0.349

126

7

Freddie Freeman

649

559

24

80

83

0.284

0.375

0.48

0.856

0.375

141

8

Victor Martinez

590

525

20

78

83

0.309

0.376

0.486

0.863

0.371

139

9

Albert Pujols

613

554

26

78

87

0.269

0.33

0.466

0.796

0.344

127

10

Buster Posey

565

503

19

69

75

0.299

0.368

0.476

0.844

0.368

142

11

Joey Votto

550

445

18

72

64

0.280

0.409

0.47

0.878

0.384

145

12

Prince Fielder

599

510

24

81

86

0.282

0.38

0.483

0.863

0.373

136

13

Todd Frazier

574

514

22

65

68

0.249

0.317

0.432

0.750

0.33

108

14

Carlos Santana

591

489

21

74

73

0.245

0.366

0.433

0.799

0.355

131

15

Chris Davis

551

483

30

71

79

0.242

0.326

0.477

0.803

0.348

122

16

Lucas Duda

621

534

24

69

75

0.234

0.333

0.419

0.751

0.332

116

17

Adam LaRoche

592

504

25

73

77

0.239

0.343

0.434

0.777

0.341

116

18

Brandon Belt

591

520

20

68

73

0.268

0.346

0.454

0.799

0.35

130

19

Eric Hosmer

635

573

19

76

77

0.278

0.339

0.44

0.779

0.342

119

20

Matt Adams

508

470

19

57

69

0.268

0.312

0.455

0.767

0.334

114

21

Justin Morneau

527

478

19

68

74

0.295

0.352

0.484

0.836

0.364

117

22

Ryan Zimmerman

570

509

19

70

71

0.275

0.344

0.449

0.793

0.348

122

23

Mark Trumbo

577

525

29

67

80

0.246

0.304

0.463

0.767

0.333

108

24

Brandon Moss

516

452

28

67

76

0.248

0.332

0.485

0.817

0.356

132

25

Mike Napoli

546

460

22

71

72

0.244

0.352

0.444

0.796

0.352

123

26

Joe Mauer

617

534

9

73

62

0.284

0.37

0.403

0.774

0.341

119

27

Steve Pearce

584

511

23

77

73

0.270

0.349

0.467

0.816

0.358

129

28

Billy Butler

633

563

16

73

76

0.274

0.346

0.420

0.765

0.337

119

29

Adam Lind

560

501

21

65

73

0.272

0.339

0.451

0.79

0.346

118

30

Michael Morse

552

504

20

60

70

0.259

0.313

0.438

0.752

0.33

109

Ike Davis

508

430

17

60

60

0.239

0.346

0.415

0.762

0.338

120

Chris Carter

612

533

32

76

84

0.223

0.314

0.453

0.767

0.336

116

Logan Morrison

578

515

20

67

71

0.254

0.326

0.43

0.756

0.333

116

Allen Craig

209

190

6

25

27

0.277

0.335

0.438

0.773

0.341

115

Yonder Alonso

544

488

14

56

60

0.265

0.331

0.41

0.741

0.326

112

Yasmani Grandal

446

385

13

48

50

0.241

0.336

0.401

0.736

0.328

112

Garrett Jones

342

310

14

41

45

0.25

0.311

0.448

0.759

0.332

110

Justin Smoak

441

387

16

52

54

0.24

0.324

0.416

0.739

0.327

107

James Loney

600

548

11

61

62

0.271

0.325

0.386

0.711

0.314

106

Nick Swisher

476

416

14

53

50

0.234

0.321

0.386

0.707

0.316

105

Mark Teixeira

527

460

22

62

67

0.223

0.314

0.414

0.728

0.323

104

Stephen Vogt

434

397

10

47

48

0.26

0.312

0.402

0.714

0.314

103

Jon Singleton

270

231

10

30

30

0.213

0.317

0.389

0.706

0.315

101

Mark Reynolds

188

163

8

20

22

0.214

0.308

0.397

0.704

0.314

100

Mitch Moreland

425

383

15

48

51

0.244

0.308

0.416

0.724

0.318

98

C.J. Cron

296

276

9

32

35

0.247

0.287

0.404

0.691

0.304

98

Darin Ruf

250

223

8

25

27

0.233

0.306

0.39

0.696

0.31

96

Ryan Howard

385

341

14

39

45

0.224

0.305

0.398

0.703

0.309

95

Eric Campbell

245

216

4

23

22

0.236

0.315

0.344

0.659

0.298

93

Tommy Medica

204

185

6

20

22

0.222

0.284

0.38

0.664

0.295

91

Maikel Franco

578

541

19

59

63

0.244

0.280

0.407

0.688

0.302

90

Ryan Rua

269

246

7

28

30

0.242

0.295

0.383

0.679

0.301

86

Lyle Overbay

328

292

6

31

31

0.228

0.303

0.35

0.653

0.292

84

Brayan Pena

318

296

5

27

29

0.25

0.289

0.355

0.644

0.285

78

Quick Thoughts

Maikel Franco, Phillies

If Franco can meet the Steamer projections, he could win rookie of the year. I have to say those are optimistic, but as a Franco owner, I would be pretty happy if he can come close to that projection.

Eric Hosmer, Royals

Steamer project Hosmer to return to the hitter he was before 2014, and I completely agree here. He just won't be an MVP caliber hitter that some thought he could be a few seasons ago.

Freddie Freeman, Braves

I think you all know my thoughts on Freeman by now, but I will say Steamer appears pretty optimistic he can hit a career high 24 home runs this season.

If the following hitters meet their Steamer projections, I would be pretty happy if i owned one, or more, of any of them:

Mark Trumbo, Diamondbacks

Prince Fielder, Rangers

Steve Pearce, Orioles - his projection seems optimistic to me

Adam Lind, Brewers

Fantasy Rundown

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