Minnesota Twins 2015 Top 10 Fantasy Prospects

2014 Graduates

The following players have surpassed their rookie maximums of 130 AB, 50 IP, or 45 days of service time.

Kennys Vargas (AB), Danny Santana (AB), Josmil Pinto (AB), Eric Fryer (ST), Yohan Pino (IP), Caleb Thielbar (ST)

Major League Opportunities in 2015

by Jason Hunt

For a team that only won 70 games last year, the Twins have a surprising number of positions locked down for the 2015 season. Miguel Sano could be the hitting prospect that has the biggest impact in 2015, but it's not clear when he will be up in the Majors and whether he will unseat incumbent Trevor Plouffe early on. Center field has continued to be a black hole for the Twins, and while their top prospect is the center fielder of the future, that future likely doesn't start in the bigs until at least 2016. The team will go with one of Aaron Hicks or Jordan Schafer as the starter, although neither is a particularly good fantasy option.

The starting rotation has four pitchers essentially locked in, with Hughes, Santana, Nolasco and Gibson all expected to make 30+ starts this year. There are a number of candidates for the fifth starter spot, including prospects Alex Meyer and Trevor May. That said, with both Mike Pelfrey and Tom Milone under contract for at least $3 million each, I find it really unlikely that either prospect starts the year in the rotation over either of these guys.

Top 10 Fantasy Prospects
by Brian Creagh

Our top 10 fantasy prospect rankings are based upon standard 5x5 fantasy baseball leagues, with a balancing of ceiling and present value. While we are having discussions regarding these lists as a collective group, the top 10 fantasy prospect rankings are finalized by the writer listed above. Players are no longer considered prospects once they exceed either 130 at bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 days of service time in the Majors.

	1. Byron Buxton (OF)
Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas - USA Today Sports

2014 FANTASY STATISTICS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.234	19	4	16	6
2014 SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
137	0.307	0.395	7.30%	26.28%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE	Bats	Throws	2014 Levels
20	R	R	A+-AA
Roster Status: Protect after 2016 Season
ETA to Majors: 2016

Although it was just one game, Buxton did manage to reach AA last season. His final line isn't pretty and not really worth discussing given it's 31 game sample, but reaching AA as a 20 year old is a huge mark in his favor. Assuming a return to healthy play, this trajectory puts Buxton in Minnesota by early 2016, and I kind of want to think he could see a September call up this year but that's probably a little too aggressive. Buxton's fantastic 2013 season gives us a better indication of what his production could look like: in 137 games, Buxton hit 15 HRs, 57 SBs, .322/.411/.509 triple slash with an 120/81 K/BB ratio. Keep in mind that Buxton's power hasn't fully developed so there is still some projection left on those HR numbers. The final line during Buxton's peak is gamebreaking.

The scouting reports fully back up the potential stud that Buxton is being hyped as. His defining tool is his 80 grade speed. Buxton has all the instincts and athletecism to make his every movement on the field look natural. He'll play CF due to his crazy range, but he has the strong arm of a right-fielder and should provide dozens of memorable web gems. Both Buxton's power and hit tool project to plus but are not fully developed. It should come with time as Buxton shows an advanced feel at the plate, but his body will need to fill out to come closer to the 20+ HR potential scouts see. Buxton is a legit 20 HR/50 SB candidate with a .300 AVG. He's going to be the catalyst for many fantasy league championships.

	2. Miguel Sano (3B)
Photo Credit: Steve Mitchell - USA Today Sports

Roster Status: On 40 Man Roster (1 Option Left)

ETA to Majors: Late 2015

Miguel Sano's fantasy value is tied entirely to his 80 grade power. Through 401 minor league games, Sano has mashed 94 HRs including two seasons with 30+ HR production. In a time where power is down across the entire league, Sano will be a welcome addition to the fantasy landscape. 40+ HR potential is a reasonable projection during his prime years making him a future leader in the HR category. The risk with Sano is that the AVG might play to a level that saps a lot of his HR value. A .250 AVG is a reasonable starting point, with more downside risk than that. While he's probably not Chris Carter, Sano could fall victim to a similar level of devaluation from an anchor AVG. He does draw a ton of walks and recoups some value in OBP leagues.

Defensively, Sano projects to stay at 3B despite his enormous frame. He has a plus-plus arm but it will be curious to see how well it recovers from TJS. He may outgrow the position, but he'll have the athleticism to handle the hot corner for the first few years of his career and maybe more. Sano is a huge risk/reward guy whose value is about to start climbing again once he starts to play post-TJS. The window may have been missed to acquire him, and I wouldn't be surprised if there's a good argument to trade him away if he comes out hot in AA.

	3. Alex Meyer (RHP)
Photo Credit: Steve Mitchell - USA Today Sports

2014 FANTASY STATISTICS
W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
7	0	3.52	1.38	153
2014 SECONDARY STATISTICS
IP	HR/9	GO/AO	BB%	K%
130.1	0.70	1.13	11.33%	27.08%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE	Bats	Throws	2014 Levels
24	R	R	AAA
Roster Status: On 40 Man Roster (3 Options Left)
ETA to Majors: 2015

Spending the entire year in AAA, Meyer threw 130.1 innings in 2014 with a 10.6 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, and 3.52 ERA. The strikeouts are huge against advanced bats in AAA, but the walks are certainly a concern. Long-limbed pitchers typically struggle to repeat their delivery, and if they do manage to find consistency it is late in their development. The walk numbers as they are probably good enough to get away with, but I do think there's a chance for improvement even as he hits the major leagues.

Meyer features a fastball, slider, and changeup combo and has a legit three-mix arsenal that can stand as a starter. The fastball is a plus-plus offering sitting in the high 90's. The slider is a plus pitch that induces a lot of swing-and-misses. Most important for Meyer's chances to stick as a starter has been the development of his changeup, it is now an average offering with a chance for more. Scouts still see Meyer's fastball/slider combo and pin him as a future closer, while others think there's enough to be a #3 starter. Either one will work for fantasy owners thanks to the strikeout totals that are sure to come with it.

Stewart throws a fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup; and all four pitches project to be average or better offerings. The fastball/slider combo are the best pitches and each could end up being plus-plus offerings. He commands all of his pitches well and when mixed with the electric movement he shows, it could all come together into a special package. The curveball and changeup have flashed potential to be bat-missers, but require a little more development and consistency. Stewart also ran into some injuries in 2014, which adds a small amount of risk to the profile. His body should hold up over a long season, but there's always going to be risk until he goes out and logs a full season. Stewart can shoot up this list, and overall rankings lists with another strong season.

The upside for Gordon is a solid AVG, and low double-digit HRs and SBs. That ceiling comes only if everything clicks and the realistic outcome is probably less than that. If you haven't had your dynasty draft yet, scoot Gordon back to a 2nd Round pick in your rankings. If you've already drafted and have Gordon, I would recommend selling him now while his small-sample production looks attractive. This isn't to say Gordon holds no value, I certainly have shares of him in my dynasty leagues, but despite the position, athleticism, and high draft pedigree - the offensive ceiling is probably less than you expect. He's also quite a few years away from reaching the big leagues, and the low-upside at the cost of a minor league roster spot for the next 3-4 years is a pretty big opportunity cost to swallow.

	6. Jose Berrios (RHP)
Photo Credit: Jerry Lai - USA Today Sports

2014 FANTASY STATISTICS
W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
12	0	2.77	1.12	140
2014 SECONDARY STATISTICS
IP	HR/9	GO/AO	BB%	K%
139.2	0.40	0.79	6.65%	24.52%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE	Bats	Throws	2014 Levels
20	R	R	A+-AA-AAA
Roster Status: Protect after 2016 Season
ETA to Majors: 2016

Berrios throws a fastball, curveball, changeup; and all three pitches project to be plus offerings. The fastball sits 92-95 mph with solid command. The curveball and changeup are a little further behind, but he consistently keeps them down in the zone and rarely gets hurt bad as a result. A big hurdle for Berrios is his 6'0" frame, which makes it difficult for him to throw with a downward plane. His stuff is electric when it's all clicking so his height isn't an insurmountable challenge, but something to look out for as he faces more advanced hitting. Some scouts see him settling in a bullpen role, but the Twins will give him every opportunity to stick as a starter, and I think he ultimately settles in as a valuable #3 starter.

Thorpe has three above-average pitches that can all miss bats. As a result, Thorpe has the potential to be a high-strikeout fantasy option and someone to get excited about. The fastball, changeup, and curveball are all potentially plus pitches, and he throws a slider that shows potential as well. An important step for Thorpe in 2015 is to get a full season's worth of work in. He'll need to build up endurance and get the necessary repetitions to iron out any control problems that may exist. Despite his presence far down the list, Thorpe is still a player worth investing in, and his low ranking is more a result of Minnesota's depth than Thorpe's talent.

	8. Eddie Rosario (OF)
Photo Credit: Derick Hingle - USA Today Sports

2014 FANTASY STATISTICS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.243	45	8	40	9
2014 SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
370	0.286	0.387	5.68%	19.73%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE	Bats	Throws	2014 Levels
22	L	R	AA-A+
Roster Status: On 40 Man Roster (3 Options Left)
ETA to Majors: 2016

Rosario has a shot to play in Minnesota this year if he can recapture his previous skillset. Scouts note Rosario's unwillingness to settle in as a gap-to-gap hitter. Too often, he tries to mash home run and embraces the slugger's mindset and his numbers struggle as a result. Rosario's 68:17 K:BB ratio needs improvement and would be aided by a more patient approach at the plate. The ceiling isn't what it once was, but he can still develop into a starter in all formats.

Gonsalves works off a fastball/changeup combo and mixes in a curveball that needs some work to become effective. There are some command concerns, but as I've mentioned multiple times for other projectable arms, the big-bodied pitchers can take a while to develop the consistency required for repeating deliveries with long limbs. Gonsalves' upside is still a #2 option and he's probably the least owned in dynasty formats of all Minnesota pitchers. He's worth an investment if he's still on the open market.

	10. Nick Burdi (RHP)
Photo Credit: Jamie Rhodes - USA Today Sports

2014 FANTASY STATISTICS
W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
2	5	2.66	1.131	38
2014 SECONDARY STATISTICS
IP	HR/9	GO/AO	BB%	K%
20.1	0.00	1.22	12.20%	46.34%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE	Bats	Throws	2014 Levels
21	R	R	A-A+
Roster Status: Protect after 2017 Season
ETA to Majors: 2016

Drafted in the 2nd Round last year out of University of Louisville, Nick Burdi rounds out this list as another potential impact arm. What puts Burdi beneath the other options is his relegation to a reliever so early in his career. He could end up a dynamic reliever with big strikeout numbers, but there's no shot he is a starter and that hurts his potential ceiling. Burdi will likely move quickly through the system, but to gamble on a role being ready for him early in his career is a silly endeavor for fantasy owners. We can't predict the composition of the Minnesota bullpen in two years, so to give credit to Burdi as a short-term closer is fools gold.

Other Interesting Prospects
by Brian Creagh

Jorge Polanco - A high-floor middle infield prospect, Polanco is what he is at this point in his career. He has a plus hit tool and some wheels to boot so there's a chance he provides a good AVG and double digit steals at the highest level. Unfortunately, that production is more likely to come at 2B due to lackluster arm strength. In deeper leagues, Polanco could be a sneaky MI play that will pay off in a year or two.

Trevor May - His MLB debut wasn't great, but May can still turn into a backend rotation piece. He has a big fastball, but needs to learn to keep it down in the zone. May found a ton of success in AAA last season and his poor results in Minnesota could just be a matter of him finding his footing. A longer look in Spring Training and potential rotation spot out of camp, could give May a late boost heading into Opening Day.