Cleveland Indians 2015 Top 10 Fantasy Prospects

The season didn't quite go as well as was hoped in Cleveland, but there remains a lot of reason for optimism with the current roster. We saw the C.C. Sabathia trade finally turn out an elite fantasy option with Michael Brantley making the jump from a top 25 outfielder to a top 10 overall fantasy option on the strength of a 20 HR, 23 SB, .327 campaign. The experiment for Carlos Santana to play third base didn't last too long, but we saw the return of his power with 27 home runs, and added 113 walks, making him a potentially elite option in OBP leagues despite the low batting average. His replacement behind the dish, Yan Gomes, has become a top 5 option at catcher who will provide both a high batting average and excellent power production.

The team will look for bounce back performances from a number of the other spots in the lineup, with second baseman Jason Kipnis at the front of that list. The big drop off last year came in his batting average, down nearly 40 points, and power (11 fewer home runs), but there is hope that the oblique injury he suffered last year was the main culprit. After poor production from their two big signees from the 2012-13 offseason, the hope is that both Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher can return to at least a partial version of their previous forms. They've also added former Oakland slugger Brandon Moss to take over in right field, who is coming off a 25 home run season in 2014 and a 30 homer campaign in 2013.

In the rotation, the team is anchored by the reigning Cy Young award winner, Corey Kluber. Kluber has become a top 10 fantasy starter, and the return of Carlos Carrasco to the rotation in August potentially gives the Indians a dominant 1-2 punch if Carrasco can continue the level of performance from the last two months of the season. With both Trevor Bauer and Danny Salazar flashing more upside during some starts last year as well, the rotation can potentially be one of the strongest in the division. The bullpen remains a strength as well with Cody Allen likely closing out games for the full season for the first time.

The farm system is likely in the middle of the pack right now, but with some definite impact talent coming sooner rather than later. It's really not a question of if, but when Francisco Lindor takes over as the everyday shortstop. It may not be in the first half, but I'd be very surprised if he isn't the starter in Cleveland by the end of the year. There are also other talents which are a bit further away, but can potentially be impact players as well in Clint Frazier, Francisco Mejia and Bradley Zimmer.

Overall, it's not hard to see the potential for the Indians to be in the middle of the division race down to the wire. The Tigers and Royals remain the class of the division after their performances last year, but the Indians are ready to go after them as well. They have the prospects in the minors to potentially go out and acquire a player they need down the stretch, and seem like they may be a bit overlooked in this race.

In the rotation, there's likely to be a battle for the fifth rotation spot, with free agent signee Gavin Floyd likely having the best shot. It's not clear that there's a prospect in the high minors for the team right now that could really push on him or the other incumbents, but whoever loses that job likely ends up in the pen as the swingman.

Top 10 Fantasy Prospects
by Brian Creagh

Our top 10 fantasy prospect rankings are based upon standard 5x5 fantasy baseball leagues, with a balancing of ceiling and present value. While we are having discussions regarding these lists as a collective group, the top 10 fantasy prospect rankings are finalized by the writer listed above. Players are no longer considered prospects once they exceed either 130 at bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 days of service time in the Majors.

	1. Francisco Lindor (SS)
Photo Credit: Lance Iversen - USA Today Sports

2014 FANTASY STATISTICS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.276	75	11	62	28
2014 SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
567	0.338	0.389	8.64%	17.11%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE	Bats	Throws	2014 Levels
20	S	R	AA-AAA
Roster Status: Protect after 2015 Season
ETA to Majors: Mid-2015

Since being drafted 8th overall by the Cleveland Indians in 2011, Lindor has been on top of every Cleveland Indians prospect list. He's always been viewed as a sure-fire shortstop with a great hit tool and wheels to boot. The Indians have been aggressive with his assignments and Lindor has responded positively every step of the way. This past season, Francisco Lindor in his age-20 season reached the AAA level and produced at a similar pace as the rest of his minor league career. Between AA and AAA Lindor finished with a .276/.338/.389 line with 11 HRs and 28 SBs. If I were to nitpick at anything in his stat line it is that his K% jumped and BB% dropped significantly during his 38 game stint in AAA. Keeping in mind that he's only 20 years old and it was a small sample size, I'm not very worried about the numbers.

The scouting report for Lindor is drool-inducing for MLB general managers; however, fantasy owners should probably take a closer look before putting Lindor in an elite class. His three standout tools are his 70 grade glove, which will keep him at SS for a long, long time, a 60 grade arm, and a hit tool that could develop into a 60-65 grade weapon. Only one of these truly matter from a fantasy context, but the guarantee of playing SS does carry some value in the fantasy world. Lindor has put up 25+ SB numbers every year in the minors, but his straight-line speed does not suggest he's the type to steal a lot of bases at the highest level. His success is a result of his pure instinct. That instinct will still allow him to steal bases in the majors, but I'm not comfortable projecting 20+ SBs on an annual basis. I have him more in the 10-15 SB range, with an outside chance for more depending on how his OBP plays from year-to-year. There is almost no power to speak of in Lindor's game, and scouts have even noted his tendency to get a little slap-happy when going the other way. I would like to see Lindor drive the ball a little more to keep pitchers honest, but at such a young age, there's a chance double digit HR power still exists in his bat.

So how do we value Lindor in our fantasy realm? I tend to think a realistic production comp could be Erick Aybar. .270-.290 AVG seasons, 15-20 SBs every year, and high single-digit HR production. The only missing variable is that Lindor's development isn't complete. There's a chance for more power, and an opportunity for the hit tool to take a step forward and maybe flirt with .300 AVG. I don't know if that is still Top 5 SS worthy in standard leagues, but the safety of that production is tough to match. I'm more inclined to knock Lindor down a few spots in our prospect rankings as a result of his defensive-first profile, but he's still an easy Top-50 fantasy prospect and may even sneak into the Top 25 once the list settles. His fantasy vs. reality value proposition is not as extreme as Austin Hedges, but his fantasy value is still considerably lower than the value placed on him by baseball scouts.

	2. Clint Frazier (OF)
Photo Credit: Kirby Lee - USA Today Sports

One of my favorite fantasy prospects is the Georgia high school product, Clint Frazier. Selected 5th overall in the 2013 draft, Frazier is an interesting combination of tools and oozes potential despite being very far away from capitalizing on it. 2014 was Frazier's first full season in professional baseball and it came with mixed results. He was assigned to Low A Lake County in the Midwest League and struggled to find his footing. Something started to click when the calendar turned to June and Frazier starting showing signs of the premiere prospect the Indians expected when drafting him. When it was all said, Frazier hit .266/.349/.411 with 13 HRs and 12 SBs. He struck out an alarming 161 times in 120 games, but scouts seem to think it's a result of over-aggressiveness as opposed to too much swing-and-miss in his game. The final line isn't sexy, but still hints at the fantasy monster this kid can become.

Frazier's scouting report holds the super trifecta for fantasy owners: potential 60-grade hit, power, and run tools. Only his speed is currently at that level, and the hit and power are a few years away from hitting that potential, but when Frazier is on his game the sky is the limit. Frazier played almost exclusively in CF this past season, and the Indians plan to keep him there as long as possible, but scouts are already doubting his ability to stick up the middle. His instincts in the field can be too slow to get great jumps and he struggles to read routes on the baseball. From a fantasy perspective, we don't care too much about this since the bat will play anywhere. Frazier appears to have the arm to handle RF so that may be where he ends up next, but with so much time left in his minor league development, that change may not come for another year or two.

The peak production for Frazier, if everything clicks, could be scary good: .280 AVG, 25+ HRs, and 20+ SBs making him a lock for a first round selection. There's a ton of risk in the profile and the floor is somewhere at 4th OF or Quad-A type if he doesn't tone down the aggressiveness and strikeouts. Frazier will likely spend all of 2015 in Hi-A, and while I would like to see some improvements in the approach, the big test for Frazier is going to come at the AA level where he'll see a lot more spin and the advanced pitching will give us a better indication of where Frazier is at in his development. The ETA for Frazier in Cleveland is probably something like 2017, but he's the type of guy you're willing to let cook for 3-4 years in your farm system.

Francisco Mejia is the guy you want to really dream on in this system. He emerged at the end of last year as one of the trendier breakout prospects thanks to his ability to stick behind C and the raw offensive potential he shows at the plate. Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2012, Mejia possesses the combination of offensive-skill and defensive premium that is a potential game-changer in fantasy circles. The majority of Mejia's hype is built around the scouting reports since there isn't a large sample size to draw from. Mejia has played 96 games across two seasons between rookie ball and short season ball. His combined line is an impressive .289/.342/.442 with 6 HRs and 5 SBs. The line must also be taken in context as he was a teenager during both seasons so his offensive abilities are very advanced for his age. There's potential for more power down the line and his defensive tools - a 70 grade arm, and 60 grade glove, suggest a long-career behind the dish.

The scouting report on Mejia's offensive profile is all based on potential at this point, but boy is it a high ceiling. A potential 60 grade hit tool, and 50+ power tool depending on how his 5'10" 175 lbs frame fills out. He has plus bat speed from both sides of the plate and creates natural, loud contact on a consistent basis. The power is easy to project as a result, even if the immediate results don't match. Mejia creates natural backspin with his swing, and controls the barrel with ease. His natural ability to hit is hindering his offensive game at the present since he often goes out of the zone in an attempt to make contact. The approach will get exposed at the higher levels, but there's plenty of time for him to adjust before really being tested. The ceiling for fantasy players is a future Top 25 player, but the risk is ridiculous as well. His youth and the physical demands of his position, make him one of the biggest boom-or-bust prospects in the minor league landscape.

The first of the Indians three 1st Round picks in 2014, was University of San Francisco outfielder, Bradley Zimmer. A left-handed swinger, Zimmer has a wiry frame at 6'4" 185 lbs. Viewed as a polished bat coming out of college, Zimmer lacks the upside of Clint Frazier or Francisco Mejia. What he lacks in gaudy-potential, he makes up for in a tangible, present skill set that should move quickly through the Cleveland system. Zimmer started at short-season ball and handled it with ease stroking .304/.401/.464 with 4 HRs and 11 SBs in only 45 games. The numbers weren't all that surprising for a college bat, so don't get too excited with the production. Zimmer moved on for a brief three game taste of full-season ball in Lo-A. He'll be 22 next year and depending on how he does in Spring Training, could jump straight to Hi-A to start 2015. He'll move quickly through the system and outside of Lindor, could have the quickest return of anyone on this list.

The scouting profile on Bradley Zimmer lacks sex appeal, but similarly lacks in any weakness. He's a 50ish grade guy across the board, and that includes his centerfield defense where he has shown the tools to handle the position. The hit tool may end up playing up to 55 grade and Zimmer could develop into a .280 AVG guy with 15ish HRs. The power is missing at present, but his athletic frame and easy stroke should add some pop as he matures. He's a solid runner and should chip in some SBs but not enough to carry his value in a meaningful way. He has the look of a future OF2 for fantasy purposes and it's hard to envision anything more than that. The power will hold the key to him hitting that point, and if it doesn't develop, Zimmer will end up an average-only guy.

If a prospect is to be saddled early in his career as a "1B-only" player, you hope he has the offensive profile of Bobby Bradley. Easy plus raw power, and a potentially above-average hit tool, it's not hard to envision Bradley handling the pressure that will be on his bat to produce. Grabbed in the 3rd Round of the 2014 draft, Bradley signed above slot and Cleveland was able to get him out of his commitment to play at LSU. He had an insane start to his career by hitting .361/.426/.652 with 8 HRs in only 39 games in the Arizona rookie league. At 6'1" and 225 lbs, Bradley's frame looks like a prototypical slugger and suggests the power will continue to grow as he develops. He also demonstrates plus bat speed and a great feel for the strike zone.

Bradley, while very much a raw prospect, flashes a complete offensive profile and a future middle of the order slugger. I wouldn't fight the argument that despite his Round 3 selection, he's a better fantasy prospect than any of the Indians 3 first rounders. I'll give Zimmer a slight edge due to his proximity, but the margin is razor thin. His bat is advanced well beyond his 18 years and could rip through the minor league system at a torrid pace. It's important that a 1B slot is open in a few years for Bradley to break into, but the bat may end up being so good that it doesn't matter. Don't let his 1B-only profile fool you, Bradley is still fantasy gold and worth stashing for a few years in your minor league system. Unfortunately, 2018 or 2019 is the earliest we may see him in Cleveland.

Drafted 15th overall in the 2012 draft, Naquin is similar to Bradley Zimmer from a fantasy perspective with his average-across-the-board profile. Not as relevant for fantasy owners, but Naquin appears to be a better bet to stick in CF thanks to his elite arm strength and improved reads in the outfield. Naquin's 2014 season ended early thanks to a HBP that required surgery on his hand. He was close to a AAA promotion and could very well start 2015 at that level. Naquin will turn 24 next year so he's not a young prospect, and could work his way into a September call-up this year. Before his season was cut short, Naquin was hitting .313/.371/.424 with 4 HRs and 14 SBs in AA. Naquin has yet to put together a dominant season in the minors, but he's progressed quickly as a college bat coming out of Texas A&M University.

Naquin's glaring weakness for fantasy owners is a questionable power ceiling. There's a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, which is difficult to swallow if you aren't getting above-average power production. His hit tool could play to 55-60 grade, which would support a .280-.290 AVG at peak, but he'll have to tone down the approach and learn to be more selective. He's a line drive hitter with great baseball instincts and I like his chance of carving out an everyday role in the major leagues, but the final stat line will never be too exciting. He's a deep league target and nothing much else at the moment.

Arguably the best arm in the Cleveland system is recently drafted lefty, Justus Sheffield. Selected 31st overall out of a Tennessee high school, Sheffield is all potential at this point. Sheffield managed a brief 20 inning debut in the rookie league and the results were encouraging. A 3-1 record, 4.87 ERA, and 12.8 K/9 vs 4.0 BB/9. It's too small of a sample to get worked up over, but the ability to get punch outs is great to see from a young prospect. Sheffield doesn't project to a rotation ace, but he does have an interesting repertoire from the left-side of the rubber and looks the part of a mid-rotation piece. For a teenager, his frame is well filled out especially in the lower half where he generates a lot of his velocity. Sheffield stands 5'10" and 196 lbs.

Justus Sheffield offers a three-pitch mix with a fastball, changeup and curveball. The fastball sits in the low 90's with some late, arm-side run. His command is iffy at the moment, but at 18 years old and with his athletic ability, it should come with time. Both the curveball and changeup show average potential, but lack consistency at present. Due to his shorter stature, there isn't a ton of projection on any of his pitches and his development will be more about improved command as opposed to adding movement or velocity. Sheffield did have a recent underage drinking incident that calls some character concerns into question. It will hurt his development and for a prospect lacking big upside, it hurts his fantasy value as well. Sheffield is not a guy you want to reach on since he's so far away and isn't likely to pay off in anything more than an innings eater with okay strikeout numbers.

	8. Mike Papi (OF/1B)
Photo Credit: Bruce Thorson - USA Today Sports

The third of the Indians' first round picks in 2014, Mike Papi is a college bat already flirting with a move to 1B from his current corner outfield position. A product of the University of Virginia, Papi spent the majority of his debut season in Low-A Lake County. In 39 games, the results weren't encouraging: .178/.305/.274 with 3 HRs and 2 SBs. Papi doesn't look like a future 1B prospect at 6'2" and 190 lbs. but he looks able to put on some strength and the power will hopefully develop as a result. He has a short, quick swing and looks able to initiate contact at a high rate. I'm mostly ignoring the poor start to his minor league career and am more willing to lean on his impressive collegiate career as an indicator of his ability. He has an advanced approach at the plate as evidenced by his 26 BBs to only 32 Ks, and I expect him to make the necessary adjustments in his career.

Scouts do like Papi's swing and think he's a bat-first prospect. At 22 years old, I would like to have a more complete minor league career to look back on, and as a result there is more risk with Papi then there might be with other collegiate bats drafted in 2014. The potential move to 1B also drains a lot of his fantasy value. The power will absolutely have to fully max out if he's going to stay relevant as a 1B prospect, and there's a big gap between that point and the present. I expect Papi to rebound nicely to kick off his 2015 season and he could be looking at an ETA in Cleveland in 2017. Keep an eye on his defensive placement because if he stick in the outfield he could move up this list next year.

Urshela has been in the Cleveland for a long, long time after signing as an international free agent in 2008 out of Colombia. 6 years later, he reached AAA at only 22 years old and had an impressive showing. Urshela hit .276/.331/.473 with 13 HRs in AAA and a 51/30 K:BB ratio in 104 games. The combination of power and approach is enticing especially for a hitter so far through the development system. Urshela is a 3B prospect and has the chops to stick at the hot corner long-term. His glove and arm are his two best tools to go with a hit tool that could play to above-average.

Urshela's power outbreak is a new facet to his game that he'll need to prove again in 2015 before I really believe in it. He has a contact-oriented swing and is more of a doubles hitter than a HR slugger. There's certainly still use for that, especially in the power depleted context of the MLB. Urshela should settle in nicely as a regular 3B, and could be on the fringe of fantasy relevance during his peak. Probably not a guy to stash in dynasty formats unless you're in a deep, 30-man setup. He's an interesting flier in AL-only leagues since he's so close to MLB-ready and should get a shot sometime in 2015.

Only the second pitching prospect in the Top 10, Mitch Brown is a righty starter drafted out of a Minnesota high school in 2012. Brown spent the entirety of 2014 in Lo-A with useful results. In 138.1 innings pitched, Brown struck out 8.3 per 9 and walked 3.6 per 9 with a 3.32 ERA. It's not overly sexy but exciting for a prospect this far down a Top 10 list. It was also great to see considering the struggles of Mitch Brown's 2013 campaign. He's firmly entrenched himself in dynasty league considerations and worth a pick in deep leagues.

Brown has two plus pitches his fastball and cutter and has a curveball that could develop into another plus offering. The command needs improvement, but Brown has the athleticism to throw with consistency and throw more strikes. The arsenal doesn't make him a sure-fire starter, but he's been taking the right steps in his development and he looks at worst, a backend rotation piece with the upside of a #3 starter. AA will prove a good test at some point this season, and if he can survive the upper minors he could slide into the back of Cleveland's rotation by 2017.

Other Interesting Prospects
by Brian Creagh

Willi Castro - A toolsy, SS prospect signed out of the Dominican in 2013, Castro is too far away to be a Top 10 member. The results of his state-side debut weren't great but it was a tough assignment for a 17 year old. He's 6'1" already and might outgrow the position, but there's a shot he stick at SS and develops plus power, which immediately puts him in the conversation for the top half of this list. Keep an eye on Castro this year and if things start to click, he immediately becomes a target in off-season rookie drafts for all dynasty players.

About the Authors

Jason Hunt is a contributing writer for Fake Teams, specializing in the minor leagues and prospects. 
Follow him on Twitter @jasonsbaseball

Brian Creagh is a contributing writer for Fake Teams, specializing in fantasy baseball and the minor leagues.
Follow him on Twitter @BrianCreagh