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Fantasy Second Base Rankings: Steamer Projections for 2015

Let's take a look at what the Steamer projections have in store for the second baseman we ranked this week.

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Projecting player stats for the upcoming season, for me, has always been a gut feel. I usually look at other project systems like ZiPS, Steamer, Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster, but I usually look at what the player has done in the past and come up with my own projection. No formulas or spreadsheets,

Sometimes I have been on target, while other times, I have been way off. Attempting to predict how a player is going to perform is not an easy task. Projecting anything for which you have no control over is very hard. Just ask the weather forecasters after the failed "snowmageddon" here on the east coast a week ago.

One of the more well known projection systems out there is ZiPS, which is created by Dan Szymborski, and published over at FanGraphs. Another projection system which FanGraphs publishes for all to see is the Steamer projections. I am going to publish the Steamer projections here for each position we cover in our Consensus Rankings Series to help you prepare for your drafts and keeper league decisions in the coming weeks and months.

Here is more on Steamer from both the Steamer Projections website and from FanGraphs:

Steamer Projections is a projection system for baseball player statistics. The system was created and is maintained and operated by Jared Cross, Dash Davidson, and Peter Rosenbloom. Dash and Peter just graduated from college and are both former students of Jared - a high school science and statistics teacher. The three creators share a deep passion and interest for baseball and the statistics that are intrinsic to the game.

The project began in the Fall of 2008 at Saint Ann's School in Brooklyn, New York. Saint Ann's offers its students an independent research program where they may embark on collaborative projects motivated by personal interest together with a teacher. The Steamer Projections system is the result of this program.

What began as an explorative academic pursuit soon became a passionate and time-consuming endeavor as we quickly began to expand and improve our system - and increase the requisite amount of work - as our skill and knowledge of the intricate process of statistical projection improved.

Now we are in the midst of working on the seventh iteration of our system, which has released a full set of projections for MLB players for each of the past five seasons by the end of March. We are still constantly tinkering on and tweaking Steamer Projections in the hope of making it ever more accurate and efficient. We are also investigating possible business partnerships with fantasy sports websites and MLB teams to leverage the predicative power of our system.  You can find our full pre-season and daily projections at www.fangraphs.com and at www.razzball.com.

Steamer - This uses the playing time projection from our (FanGraphs) depth charts. These are temporarily using playoff rosters, so there may be the occasional weird playing time allocation. Playing time may be updated on a nightly basis.

So let's take a look what the Steamer projections have in store for the second baseman we ranked earlier this week.

Onto the Steamer projections for 2015:

Rank

Name

PA

AB

H

HR

R

RBI

SB

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

wOBA

wRC+

1

Anthony Rendon

642

569

159

19

84

72

11

0.279

0.350

0.454

0.804

0.354

125

2

Robinson Cano

646

578

171

18

81

82

6

0.295

0.360

0.461

0.821

0.355

132

3

Jose Altuve

666

615

184

9

84

62

35

0.299

0.341

0.411

0.752

0.331

113

4

Ian Kinsler

674

612

163

16

87

67

14

0.266

0.322

0.413

0.734

0.325

106

5

Brian Dozier

652

573

138

16

78

63

16

0.240

0.320

0.381

0.701

0.314

100

6

Dustin Pedroia

657

584

166

11

82

71

11

0.283

0.352

0.406

0.758

0.337

113

7

Jason Kipnis

612

540

137

13

71

62

20

0.253

0.330

0.386

0.717

0.320

107

8

Neil Walker

529

470

128

16

63

62

3

0.273

0.343

0.439

0.782

0.345

123

9

Dee Gordon

585

535

137

2

63

38

47

0.257

0.308

0.335

0.643

0.288

80

10

Daniel Murphy

616

570

158

9

67

56

11

0.277

0.320

0.393

0.712

0.314

104

11

Howie Kendrick

551

507

139

9

55

58

8

0.275

0.323

0.397

0.720

0.316

104

12

Ben Zobrist

657

570

152

12

82

66

9

0.266

0.353

0.406

0.759

0.337

119

13

Chase Utley

575

512

132

13

62

59

7

0.257

0.329

0.402

0.731

0.321

103

14

Kolten Wong

516

474

122

11

55

51

17

0.257

0.305

0.383

0.688

0.304

93

15

Javier Baez

589

539

119

27

72

67

14

0.221

0.276

0.418

0.694

0.304

90

16

Brett Lawrie

548

495

130

17

64

65

7

0.263

0.324

0.427

0.751

0.332

116

17

Jedd Gyorko

576

523

126

19

59

66

4

0.240

0.302

0.400

0.702

0.311

102

18

Brandon Phillips

535

495

128

12

53

55

4

0.259

0.306

0.385

0.691

0.305

91

19

Scooter Gennett

547

510

138

10

56

52

8

0.270

0.307

0.388

0.695

0.305

90

20

Martin Prado

633

579

158

11

68

63

5

0.274

0.326

0.401

0.726

0.321

103

21

Rougned Odor

357

332

84

8

38

39

9

0.252

0.292

0.391

0.684

0.301

86

22

Asdrubal Cabrera

601

540

132

14

65

61

8

0.244

0.310

0.383

0.693

0.307

101

23

Aaron Hill

634

579

146

16

67

65

6

0.252

0.306

0.398

0.704

0.311

92

24

Arismendy Alcantara

300

276

65

7

31

29

10

0.236

0.285

0.379

0.665

0.294

83

25

Marcus Semien

571

503

120

16

66

62

9

0.239

0.317

0.396

0.713

0.317

105

26

Jonathan Schoop

507

467

105

15

52

53

5

0.226

0.273

0.366

0.639

0.284

77

27

Joe Panik

598

546

139

5

56

47

4

0.255

0.309

0.338

0.647

0.290

88

28

Omar Infante

516

481

131

7

54

49

7

0.273

0.311

0.376

0.688

0.304

93

29

Nick Franklin

519

460

108

12

56

50

9

0.235

0.310

0.367

0.678

0.303

98

30

Emilio Bonifacio

478

432

106

4

51

36

26

0.245

0.304

0.327

0.631

0.284

76

Quick Thoughts

Javier Baez, Cubs - Steamer is optimistic that Baez will start the season in the big leagues, and hit for very good power, albeit with a low batting average. His projected wRC+ of 90 tells you how bad he could be if he doesn't change his approach at the plate.

Arismendy Alcantara, Cubs - I am pretty high on Alcantara this season, but know that, like his teammate Baez, he will need to improve his approach at the plate, as he struck out in 31% of his plate appearances after his call up last season. That said, I think the Steamer projection is light, as he has the tools to put up double digit home runs and 25+ stolen bases in a full season of at bats. I see manager Joe Maddon using him all over the field this season, and he could gain eligibility at third base, second base, and in the outfield this season, making him all the more valuable.

Jason Kipnis, Indians - I see Kipnis exceeding the Steamer projection this season, as he has worked on being more flexible in the offseason. I see a return to the 30 stolen base club, and see him scoring and driving in more runs as well.

Marcus Semien, Athletics - As a Semien owner in my AL only keeper league, I would be perfectly happy with the Steamer projection of 16 home runs, 60+ runs scored and RBI and near double digits in stolen bases. I actually think he will run more than that, so I wouldn't be surprised if he stole 15 bases in 2015.

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