Fantasy Second Base Rankings: Steamer Projections for 2015

Projecting player stats for the upcoming season, for me, has always been a gut feel. I usually look at other project systems like ZiPS, Steamer, Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster, but I usually look at what the player has done in the past and come up with my own projection. No formulas or spreadsheets,

Sometimes I have been on target, while other times, I have been way off. Attempting to predict how a player is going to perform is not an easy task. Projecting anything for which you have no control over is very hard. Just ask the weather forecasters after the failed "snowmageddon" here on the east coast a week ago.

One of the more well known projection systems out there is ZiPS, which is created by Dan Szymborski, and published over at FanGraphs. Another projection system which FanGraphs publishes for all to see is the Steamer projections. I am going to publish the Steamer projections here for each position we cover in our Consensus Rankings Series to help you prepare for your drafts and keeper league decisions in the coming weeks and months.

Here is more on Steamer from both the Steamer Projections website and from FanGraphs:

Steamer Projections is a projection system for baseball player statistics. The system was created and is maintained and operated by Jared Cross, Dash Davidson, and Peter Rosenbloom. Dash and Peter just graduated from college and are both former students of Jared - a high school science and statistics teacher. The three creators share a deep passion and interest for baseball and the statistics that are intrinsic to the game.

The project began in the Fall of 2008 at Saint Ann's School in Brooklyn, New York. Saint Ann's offers its students an independent research program where they may embark on collaborative projects motivated by personal interest together with a teacher. The Steamer Projections system is the result of this program.

What began as an explorative academic pursuit soon became a passionate and time-consuming endeavor as we quickly began to expand and improve our system - and increase the requisite amount of work - as our skill and knowledge of the intricate process of statistical projection improved.

Now we are in the midst of working on the seventh iteration of our system, which has released a full set of projections for MLB players for each of the past five seasons by the end of March. We are still constantly tinkering on and tweaking Steamer Projections in the hope of making it ever more accurate and efficient. We are also investigating possible business partnerships with fantasy sports websites and MLB teams to leverage the predicative power of our system.  You can find our full pre-season and daily projections at www.fangraphs.com and at www.razzball.com.

Steamer - This uses the playing time projection from our (FanGraphs) depth charts. These are temporarily using playoff rosters, so there may be the occasional weird playing time allocation. Playing time may be updated on a nightly basis.

So let's take a look what the Steamer projections have in store for the second baseman we ranked earlier this week.

Onto the Steamer projections for 2015:

Quick Thoughts

Javier Baez, Cubs - Steamer is optimistic that Baez will start the season in the big leagues, and hit for very good power, albeit with a low batting average. His projected wRC+ of 90 tells you how bad he could be if he doesn't change his approach at the plate.

Arismendy Alcantara, Cubs - I am pretty high on Alcantara this season, but know that, like his teammate Baez, he will need to improve his approach at the plate, as he struck out in 31% of his plate appearances after his call up last season. That said, I think the Steamer projection is light, as he has the tools to put up double digit home runs and 25+ stolen bases in a full season of at bats. I see manager Joe Maddon using him all over the field this season, and he could gain eligibility at third base, second base, and in the outfield this season, making him all the more valuable.

Jason Kipnis, Indians - I see Kipnis exceeding the Steamer projection this season, as he has worked on being more flexible in the offseason. I see a return to the 30 stolen base club, and see him scoring and driving in more runs as well.

Marcus Semien, Athletics - As a Semien owner in my AL only keeper league, I would be perfectly happy with the Steamer projection of 16 home runs, 60+ runs scored and RBI and near double digits in stolen bases. I actually think he will run more than that, so I wouldn't be surprised if he stole 15 bases in 2015.

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