Stud: Carson Palmer $8,700 vs. GB
Everyone is talking about Roethlisberger and Bortles this week, and rightfully so as they both are in great spots. However, the Cardinals and Packers game currently has the highest over/under of the weekend at 51 points. The Cardinals have an implied point total of 27.75 points which is the second highest of the slate. This matchup has a lot of playoff seeding implications because if the Cardinals beat the Packers, they lock up the number two seed in the NFC and clinch a first round bye. Palmer averages 21.4 fantasy points per game and has thrown 300+ yards in all but one game in Arizona. He's thrown 14 touchdowns in six home games. The Packers allow 255 passing yards per game and have allowed 18 passing touchdowns, including 11 in their last seven games. This week they will likely be without their top cornerback Sam Shields (concussion). Palmer has exceeded his value 80 percent of the time this season by an average of 3.57 points, per Fantasy Labs. He offers one of this week's top ceilings and was just 1.2 percent owned in Thursday's $2 Snap.
Other Studs: Cam Newton $9,300, Aaron Rodgers $8,500, Ben Roethlisberger $8,900, and Blake Bortles $8,200
Value: Tyrod Taylor $7,700 vs. DAL
Taylor has topped 19 fantasy points in four straight games. In that span, he's averaging 251 passing yards and 51.5 rushing yards per game, while scoring 10 total touchdowns. The weather in this game could be ugly, so it may be tough for Taylor to get much done through the air, but his ability to run makes him an interesting play. The Cowboys have surrendered three rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks which is tied for most in the league by a defense. In the last five games, the Cowboys have also surrendered six passing touchdowns. Taylor has a pretty high floor and has displayed his 29 fantasy point ceiling. He has exceeded value 69 percent of the time by an average of 5.70 points, per Fantasy Labs.
Other Values: Jameis Winston $7,300, Ryan Tannehill $6,900, and Jay Cutler $6,900
Stud: David Johnson $7,300 vs. GB
I was going to write about DeAngelo Williams, but after looking at the ownership percentages from Thursday night's $2 snap, it appears they will be somewhat close in ownership percentages and I rather go with the back at home and with a better matchup. Johnson carved up the Eagles' defense last week as he rushed for 187 yards on 29 carries. He got in the end zone three times and also caught four passes for 42 yards. He has topped 100 total yards in each of the last three games and has scored four touchdowns in that span. He's getting 20+ touches per game and has been targeted 14 times in the last three weeks. He will face the Packers who surrender 87 rushing yards per game and have allowed 11 total touchdowns this season, including three rushing touchdowns in their last five games. Johnson provides a steady floor and plenty of upside. As I always say, chalk is needed to win tournaments, so don't hesitate to use him in some of your lineups.
Other Studs: Adrian Peterson $8,200, Doug Martin $8,100, and DeAngelo Williams $7,400
Value: Denard Robinson $6,400 at NO
T.J. Yeldon is not expected to play this week as he is still nursing an MCL sprain. Robinson, who suffered a foot sprain last week, is probable to play this week and is expected to get another start. Last week, he did not perform as I anticipated, but he still scored 12.7 Fantasy points. He had 74 total yards and caught eight passes. This is a great bounce back spot for Robinson as he takes on the Saints who are one of the worst run defenses in the league. Opposing running backs average 119.9 rushing yards, 59.6 receiving yards, and six receptions per game against them. They've also reached the end zone 16 times and average 5.24 yards per carry. He was just 4.2 percent owned in Thursday night's $2 snap. This should be a high scoring game for the Jaguars, which means potentially plenty of scoring opportunities for Robinson.
Other values: Charcandrick West $6,700, Lamar Miller $6,500, and Frank Gore $6,000
Stud: Antonio Brown $9,300 at BAL
I know the ownership percentage is going to be through the roof, but that doesn't matter to me with a player like Brown. He's one of the most consistent receivers in the league and offers a ton of upside as well. He has topped 32 fantasy points in four of his last six games. In two of his last six games, he has two 16+ reception and 180+ receiving yards games. It's difficult to disregard that type of potential in a great matchup simply because of ownership percentages. Last week he absolutely torched the league's best pass defense, this week he has a far better matchup. The Ravens allow 13.5 receptions and 175.1 receiving yards per game to receivers, while giving up 25 touchdowns which is the most given up by any defense. Brown is averaging 11.8 targets per game on the season, but since Week 8 he is averaging 14.1 targets per game. He's hit his ceiling several times in recent weeks and has another shot at doing so again against Baltimore.
Other Studs: DeAndre Hopkins $8,700, Allen Robinson $8,400, and Mike Evans $8,200
Value: Michael Floyd, $6,300 vs. GB
The Packers could be without cornerback Sam Shields this week, leaving the outside receivers at an advantage against them this week. Since Week 6, Floyd is averaging 7.5 targets, 4.6 receptions, and 77.3 receiving yards per game in all the games he's played in. He's also scored six touchdowns in that span. In his last 10 games, he has exceeded value 70 percent of the time by an average of 4.67 points, per Fantasy Labs. The Packers are allowing 161.1 receiving yards and 11.4 receptions per game, while yielding 10 receiving touchdowns to opposing receivers. This game has the highest over/under of the slate at 51 points and the Cardinals have the second highest implied point total of the weekend at 27.75 points. Floyd was owned just 4.6 percent in Thursday night's $2 Snap.
Other Values: Martavis Bryant $7,200, Allen Hurns $7,100, Randall Cobb $6,800, Golden Tate $6,700, Kamar Aiken $6,600, John Brown $6,400, Stefon Diggs $6,000, and Markus Wheaton $6,000
Stud: Rob Gronkowski at NYJ $8,200
A lot of people see the Jets on the schedule and stay away because of their defense. They are really good at defending tight ends as they surrender just 48 yards and 4.6 receptions per game to tight ends, while allowing just two touchdowns. However, one of those touchdowns was to Gronkowski in Week 7. In that game, he caught 11 passes for 108 yards and a touchdown. That was good for 22.3 fantasy points. Gronk has scored a touchdown in three consecutive games and has been targeted 25 times in that span. With a win and a Bengals loss, the Patriots could lock in the number one seed in the AFC for the playoffs. I'm expecting them to go into New York and take care of business. Gronk shouldn't have any trouble against the Jets defense this week. He is matchup proof. Oh, and he was owned just 5.4 percent in Thursday night's $2 Snap.
Other studs: Greg Olsen $6,800, Delanie Walker $6,600, and Julius Thomas $6,500
Value: Will Tye $5,100 at MIN
Tye is averaging 6.3 targets in his last six games and could be in for a more targets this week with the Odell Beckham Jr. suspension. ODB averages 10.8 targets per game so that leaves a good amount of targets to be spread out in the Giants' offense. Tye has been relatively consistent with five or more catches in four of his last five games. He has also scored in back-to-back games now. The Vikings are solid against opposing tight ends, but opportunity alone and the potential in the targets increase for Tye makes him a solid tournament play. He and Manning appear to have established a good rapport.
Other values: Richard Rodgers $5,300