Time to reveal one of my GPP lineups I am using on Sunday. This week built my lineup around the Wide Receivers, and then worked out the rest from there. This week went with a few chalk plays, but felt they were necessary in order to do well.
Carson Palmer $8,700 and Michael Floyd $6,100:
As was mentioned in the tournament plays article, his ownership percentage from the Thursday night slate was actually fairly low. While it is no shock that Russell Wilson is the highest owned QB, given the matchup I expected a lot more people to be on Palmer. With the Cardinals facing the Eagles, a team that has allowed two different QB's to put up 5 TD's on them in the past 4 games, Palmer can be expected to play at his best with the defense not going to do much to get in his way. Over that 4 game span, the Eagles defense is allowing 29.48 FanDuel points a game to opposing QB's. That is something to take advantage of when you have a QB playing as well as Palmer is this year. The guy I am stacking him with is Michael Floyd for a couple of reasons. His upside is greater than Larry Fitzgerald is the first reason. The second reason is that he was cheaper than John Brown and I saw those two as being equal in opportunity and potential, so why not save $200 and use that elsewhere.
DeAndre Hopkins $8,700:
The recent slip in Hopkins play has allowed for a buying opportunity on Hopkins. Sure T.J. Yates will be his QB, but that doesn't matter to me. I have seen Yates play a competent before and I expect him to be able to get the ball out to Hopkins. I mean where else will Yates throw the ball? Remember this is a guy on the season who has over 1200 yards and 10 TD's. This week the Texans are facing the Colts, a team that is allowing teams to throw the ball all over them. This is the week we see the early season Hopkins come back.
Tyler Lockett $6,000:
Russell Wilson and the Seahawks are firing on all cylindars currently. With this new found energy in the offense, Doug Baldwin has been getting all of the notirity, which is well deserved given his gaudy stats, but Tyler Lockett is also improving each and every week. The last two weeks the Seahawks have been finding ways to get Lockett the ball to make plays as a receiver, not just as a returner anymore. With Marshawn Lynch still out, and Thomas Rawls now out for the year, this means the Seahawks may leave even more on the pass game this week to move the ball. This can then result in more quick routes for Lockett where he can be put in space to make plays. The upside is great here, as we saw last week he can put up near 100 yards and 2 TD's just like that.
Julius Thomas $6,200:
Thomas has scored in 4 consecutive games for the Jaguars. This week the Jaguars are facing the reeling Atlanta Falcons. The one thing that the Falcons have actually done a decent job at this season, at least before last week, was shutting down opposing WR's. With the Falcons doing a decent job of shutting down WR's, this leaves room for teams to use their TE to beat them. Blake Bortles clearly trusts Thomas, as he has been feeding him the ball each and every week, especially in the redzone. Because we know that the Jaguars are going to be moving the ball and putting points on the board, I expect Thomas to score at least one TD in the redzone, and probably a second one.
Matt Prater $4,500:
Finally a minimum priced kicker I can feel confident in playing this week. The Lions will have no trouble putting points on the board. I expect a high scoring game on Monday night, with the Lions constantly getting the ball in the redzone. Because the Lions won't be able to probably finish every drive with a TD, this leaves room for Prater to kick a couple of field goals.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense $5,200:
Over the last 7 games, the Chiefs defense has scored over 12 points in six of those games, averaging 14.4 points per game. That alone make them a safe play, along with a top end play for this week. Now factor in that the Chiefs are facing the Ravens, and you have almost a 100% chance that they put up double digits again this week.
Jeremy Hill $6,000:
Hill has the best matchup possible this week. While he does come with some risk due to inconsistnecy, I believe that this risk is mitigated by A.J. McCarron being the starting QB this week. Because the Bengals know that controlling the game will be key in trying to get them to win. This means a lot of work for Jeremy Hill. The Bengals are facing the 49ers, and as I mentioned, they present the best matchup possible. Each of the past four games the 49ers have allowed 6 TD's, with at least one in each of those games. Hill will almost assuredly find the endzone at least once, and if he can break off some big runs, the yards by the end of the game will be huge.
Adrian Peterson $8,600:
Because of the cap that I saved with Jeremy Hill and Michael Floyd instead of John Brown, this allowed me to put in Adrian Peterson as my last back. While Peterson will be the highest owned back on Sunday, I think it is well deserved. For his last 7 games, Peterson is averaging 17.4 FanDuel points a game, and that is with one game of 4.4 in there when he faced the Seahawks. You take that game away and he has averaged 19.6 a game. This week he gets to face the Bears, where he rushed for 103 yards last time they played. The downside from that matchup was that he didn't score in it. Keep in mind though, opposing backs are averaging 100.6 rushing yards per game and have scored nine total touchdowns against the Bears. Peterson is now at home, they are considered 5.5 point favorites, things are looking prime for a dominate Peterson game.