Stud: Carson Palmer $8,700 at PHI
When I looked at the ownership percentages for Thursday night’s $2 Snap I was not surprised to see Russell Wilson as the highest owned quarterback, but was very surprised that Palmer was the sixth highest owned quarterback at 7.3 percent. Palmer heads to Philly to take on one of the worst pass defenses in the league. The Eagles are allowing 272.2 passing yards per game and have given up the second-most passing touchdowns (29). They have surrendered two or more passing touchdowns in five of their last six games, including two five-touchdown games by Jameis Winston and Matthew Stafford. Palmer averages 307 passing yards and nearly 35 passing attempts per game. Palmer has eclipsed 20 fantasy points and 300 yards in five of his last six games. In that span, he has thrown 15 touchdowns. The line for this has moved up since it opened and is now one of the two games with the highest over/under at 51 points. The Cardinals have an implied point total of 27.25 points. This is a good spot for Palmer and there’s a chance you get him at a low ownership percentage.
Other Studs: Tom Brady $9,500, Cam Newton $9,400, Aaron Rodgers $9,000, Russell Wilson $8,800, and Drew Brees $8,000
Value: Matthew Stafford $7,800 at NO
Stafford has not been impressive this season by any means, but he has had some big games against subpar defenses. This week he faces the Saints and there’s basically no better matchup than this. The Saints are giving up 292.2 passing yards per game and have allowed 36 passing touchdowns, which is the most allowed by a defense this year. In his last three games, Stafford is averaging 23 fantasy points and 267.3 passing yards per game, and has thrown nine touchdowns in that span. This is the other game with the highest over/under of the slate at 51 points and the Lions have an implied point total of 24.25. The potential game flow of this game is one that benefits Stafford as it is setting up to be a shootout. This is a great Monday night hammer!
Other Values: Blake Bortles $7,900, Tyrod Taylor $7,500, and Alex Smith $7,000
Stud: Adrian Peterson $8,600 at MIN
Peterson was the highest owned back in Thursday night’s $2 Snap, but as I’ve said before, you need chalk to win tournaments. Peterson is in a great bounce back spot after struggling in his last two games. In those games he combined for 17.5 fantasy points and 110 total yards. However, it was against two stingy run defenses, the Seahawks and Cardinals. This week he faces off against the Bears who aren’t as tough against the run. Opposing backs are averaging 100.6 rushing yards per game and have scored nine total touchdowns against the Bears. The last time that Peterson faced the Bears he rushed for 103 yards on 20 carries. That was on the road, this is at home. Oh yea, and the Vikings are a 5.5 point favorite.
Other Studs: Devonta Freeman $8,400 and LeSean McCoy $7,900
Value: Eddie Lacy $6,900 at OAK
Lacy has rushed for 100 or more yards and has 20+ touches in three of this last four games. The only game he didn’t accomplish either of the two was in Week 13’s game where he only received five carries because he was in the coach’s doghouse for missing curfew. If you put that game aside, Lacy has been playing well as of late. The Raiders are allowing 86.5 rushing yards, 49.1 receiving yards, and 6.4 receptions per game. They’re giving up 4.1 yards per carry and have surrendered 10 total touchdowns. If you look at some of the top running backs that the Raiders have recently faced, you’ll notice that they struggled at stopping them. DeAngelo Williams rushed for 170 yards and two touchdowns, and Adrian Peterson rushed for 203 yards and a touchdown against the Raiders several weeks back. So while they aren’t a walk in the park, they certainly can be vulnerable against the run.
Other values: Lamar Miller $6,700, David Johnson $6,500, Denard Robinson $6,300, Charcandrick West $5,900 (if Ware is out), and Brandon Bolden $5,500
Stud: Julio Jones $8,600 at JAC
Jones has failed to top 100 receiving yards in three straight games and has not scored a touchdown in five straight games. This is good as recency biased will keep people off of him in a good spot like the one he is in this week. In fact, he was the eighth highest owned wide receivers of Thursday night’s $2 Snap at just 12.3 percent, I’ll take that. Jones has caught seven or more passes in six of his last seven games and has topped 90 receiving yards five times in that span. This week he faces the Jaguars who are allowing 160.7 receiving yards per game and have given up 13 touchdowns to opposing receivers. The over/under in this contest has moved up from where it opened and is now at 49 points. The spread is three points, which indicates that on a neutral field, this game would be pretty much even. The Falcons have an implied point total of 23 points. Jones should benefit from this potential shootout in Jacksonville and should receive plenty of opportunities to score fantasy points.
Other Studs: Odell Beckham Jr. $9,100, A.J. Green $8,700, DeAndre Hopkins $8,700, Allen Robinson $8,100, Calvin Johnson $8,000, and Alshon Jeffery $7,900
Value: Larry Fitzgerald $7,200 at PHI
I was very surprised to see Fitzgerald’s ownership percentage in Thursday night’s $2 Snap at just 5.10 percent. I mean, he was the 17th highest owned wide receiver of the tournament. I’m not sure if I’m missing something or not, but I’m all in on Fitzgerald if that’s the ownership percentage he’s expected to be at on Sunday. In seven career games against the Eagles (including playoffs), he has caught 47 passes for 802 yards and has scored 11 touchdowns. In fact, he has scored at least one touchdown in every game he’s played against them. The Eagles surrender 185.7 receiving yards and 14.8 receptions per game, while allowing the second-most receiving touchdowns by receivers (21). They surrender over 25 fantasy points per game and have allowed at least one touchdown in all but one game to receivers. Fitzgerald has been targeted over 10 times in five of his last six games. He hasn’t scored a touchdown in five straight games, but I expect that to change this week. He has potential to finish top five in fantasy points amongst wide receivers this week.
Other Values: Jarvis Landry $7,100, Brandin Cooks $7,000, Golden Tate $6,900, Jeremy Maclin $6,700, John Brown $6,300, Michael Floyd $6,100, and Tyler Lockett $6,000
Stud: Rob Gronkowski $8,500 vs. TEN
Gronk returned last week after missing one game with a knee injury. To no one’s surprise, Gronk had a nice game. He caught four passes for 87 yards and a touchdown. There’s no doubt that he is the best and most reliable tight end in the league. He averages 16.03 fantasy points per game and has topped 17 fantasy points in four of his last seven games. Gronk offers a high ceiling, to go along with a steady floor. He’s one of the few players who provides three touchdown upside in a single game. Not that it matters who he plays against, but this is a good matchup for Gronk. The Titans have surrendered five touchdowns in the last five games to tight ends and have been getting torched through the air in recent weeks. Gronk has 10 touchdowns this season and has scored a touchdown in six of the last eight games. This could be a blowout and Gronk may sit towards the end of the game, but he should do plenty of damage before then.
Other studs: Greg Olsen $6,800, Jordan Reed $6,300, and Julius Thomas $6,200
Value: Will Tye $4,900 vs. CAR
Tye didn’t even show up on the field report at RotoGrinders.com, so I’m assuming he wasn’t rostered in the Thursday night’s $2 Snap. This tells me that nobody is one him, and I can totally understand why. However, since Week 9, Tye is averaging six targets per game. He has topped eight fantasy points in four straight games and scored his first touchdown last week against the Dolphins. This game has a surprisingly high over/under at 48 points and the Giants have an implied point total of 22 points. Josh Norman will have his hands full with Odell Beckham for most of the day which means that someone else has to get it done in the passing game, and that would be Tye if you ask me. The Panthers have allowed five touchdowns to tight ends this season. If you’re trying to save some cash at tight end this week, Tye is intriguing.
Other values: Heath Miller $5,600