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Fantasy Hockey Quarter Point Trends and Pretends 8.0 (NHL Power Rankings)

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Early trends. What to trust, what to watch out for. Power Rankings

Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

We are just over 29% into the 2015-2016 NHL season.


Deep dive into advanced stats again. CORSI Relative and CORSI Quality of Competition (often CORSI QoC) and CORSI Relative QoC - Minimum 10 games played:

1.       Here are the calculations for the three stats:

a.       CORSI Relative CORSI # for a player - CORSI # of team when player is not on ice. Basically this stat is telling you how many shots are going one way or another when a player is on ice vs. not. The higher the number the better. For example: #1 overall pick Aaron Eckblad has a 29.3 CORSI Relative which means 29 more shots go on the opposing goalie than his net while he is on ice relative to the other members on his team. This stat will be prevalent to show which players are the shining star on their team.

b.      CORSI Quality of Competition is calculated as: (Plus/Minus of when the player is on the ice/[plus/minus when the player is on the ice + plus/minus when the player is off it]) Essentially this is telling you which players are facing off against some of the best talent on the opposing side. The stat is weighted based on TOI versus the player. The higher the number the more quality opponents they faced.

c.       Finally there is a stat of CORSI Relative to Quality of Competition which will showcase a player who is not only among the better on his team but is also facing tough competition. This will be shown in points 9 and 10.

2.       Minnesota Wild were 9th in the league last year in favorable goals for vs. goals against at +30. This year they are 13th at +2. As part of this most of their star players are at or below a +2. They currently sit at 16th in the NHL standings as a whole. Part of this is due to the tough competition that a group of individuals on the team have faced as they have high CORSI QoC . Their stars are averaging around 20 points which isn't bad at all. The following players are among the top 10 in CORSI QoC right now for the Minnesota Wild: Jordan Schroeder, Charlie Coyle, Jonas Brodin, Nino Niederreiter, Ryan Suter, and Jared Spurgeon. The wild are currently 20th in the league in average shots against and most of the aforementioned list is defensemen who have managed against some tough competition this season. This speaks volumes to how well Ryan Suter and Jared Spurgeon are doing with points this season under the circumstances.

3.       Another team favorable in CORSI QoC is Edmonton where 6 of the top 13 stand: Mark Fayne, Lauri Korpiloski, Benoit Pouliot, Oscar Klefbom, Jordan Eberle and Taylor Hall. When you break down this team you start to see the difference. For some players like Taylor Hall who is currently 8th in the league in Points with a plus 11,  you see that he is excelling amongst some of the toughest competition in the league. The same is true for Benoit Pouliot and Oscar Klefbom who are showing points but have poor plus minus stats. At the bottom, Mark Fayne and Lauri Korpiloski have fewer than 5 points and are at minus 7 or worse. Facing that level of competition can weigh on any player. Jordan Eberle is minus 11 through 12 games which is not good either. One possible skew in the data is that both of these teams are among the 6 least penalized teams leaving a lot of 5 vs. 5 time that other teams wouldn't have to lend to the data.

4.       A team on the reverse side of this has 6 of the top 7 players from Montreal Canadiens meaning they are facing weak competition: Nathan Beaulieu, Tom Gilbert, Alex Galchenyuk, Lars Eller, Paul Byron and Alexander Semin. Chances are these opportunistic situation won't continue all season so favorable stats from Alex Galchenyuk and Lars Eller might diminish some in the future unless the team continues to face them against the easiest opposition on each team.

5.       CORSI Relative. Here are the team representatives in the top 12 in this stat category: Florida Panthers (21st in standings), Minnesota Wild (17th in the standings), Toronto Maple Leafs(26th in the standings), Winnipeg Jets (22nd in the standings), Detroit Red Wings (14th in the standings), Washington Capitals (5th in the standings), Nashville Predators (12th in the standings) and Buffalo Sabres (25th in the standings). This makes sense. The stat is showing teams where a player is head and shoulders providing more offensive output then the remainder of the team so it will be teams in the middle of the pack which are top heavy having shots and points from one group and then shots and goals allowed while remaining players are out there.

6.       Here are the top twelve in CORSI Relative meaning there is a favorable disparity between the team play when they are on the ice vs. off the ice: Aaron Eckblad (29.3), Jason Zucker (29.3), Mikko Koivu (28.3), James Van Riemsdyk (25.4), Mathieu Perreault (24.4), Teemu Pulkkinen (23.9), Nicklas Backstrom (22.5), Nino Niederreiter (22.4), Seth Jones (22.2), Evander Kane (21.9) and Barret Jackman (21.8)

7.       Some other notables amongst the top 30: Joe Pavelski (12th), Matt Duchene (18th), Brad Marchand (19th), Kyle Turris (21st) and Anthony Duclair (29th) who just had a 5 game point streak snapped.

8.       Notable names among the worst in CORSI Relative as many of these will be players who are hindering their team in shots for vs. shots against: Chris Kelly (7th -27), Erik Gudbranson (15th -24.8), Dan Girardi (16th at -24) and Chris Tierney (17th, -23.2).

9.       Top ten players in CORSI Relative QoC: Nick Spaling (2.905), Matt Hunwick (2.642), Erik Johnson (2.436), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (2.409), Francois Beauchemin (2.325), Joffrey Lupul (2.302), Ben Lovejoy (2.268), T.J. Brodie (2.211), Patrice Bergeron (2.175).

10.   The bottom of CORSI Relative QoC will often showcase enforcers on team as they don't play heavy  minutes, are penalized a lot and are generally not facing the top competition on an opposing team - rather they are thrown out for energy and to engage a crowd or rally the team when they are struggling. Examples of this are Zac Rinaldo, Tyler Randell, Shawn Thornton and Casey Zizikas.

NHL Power Rankings:

Week: 11/30/2015

Bleacher Report

ESPN

Fox Sports

CBS Sports

Average

vs. last week

Anaheim Ducks

24

22

26

22

23.50

22.00

Arizona Coyotes

16

19

11

17

15.75

20.00

Boston Bruins

12

12

9

12

11.25

15.00

Buffalo Sabres

23

23

21

23

22.50

22.50

Calgary Flames

30

29

29

29

29.25

25.75

Carolina Hurricanes

26

25

24

27

25.50

25.75

Chicago Blackhawks

6

6

7

7

6.50

10.50

Colorado Avalanche

28

27

27

28

27.50

28.50

Columbus Blue Jackets

22

26

25

26

24.75

27.50

Dallas Stars

2

1

3

2

2.00

1.25

Detroit Red Wings

15

13

15

15

14.50

11.75

Edmonton Oilers

29

30

30

30

29.75

28.75

Florida Panthers

19

18

18

19

18.50

19.75

Los Angeles Kings

8

5

6

6

6.25

9.25

Minnesota Wild

13

9

12

14

12.00

6.50

Montreal Canadiens

3

3

2

1

2.25

2.50

Nashville Predators

10

10

13

13

11.50

7.50

New Jersey Devils

17

14

17

16

16.00

15.25

New York Islanders

11

16

16

10

13.25

14.75

New York Rangers

5

7

5

5

5.50

2.25

Ottawa Senators

9

8

8

9

8.50

12.25

Philadelphia Flyers

25

24

22

24

23.75

27.50

Pittsburgh Penguins

14

15

14

11

13.50

11.75

San Jose Sharks

7

11

10

8

9.00

11.00

St. Louis Blues

4

4

4

4

4.00

5.25

Tampa Bay Lightning

18

17

20

18

18.25

14.00

Toronto Maple Leafs

27

28

28

25

27.00

24.75

Vancouver Canucks

21

21

19

20

20.25

19.50

Washington Capitals

1

2

1

3

1.75

4.00

Winnipeg Jets

20

20

23

21

21.00

18.00

Some extra cheddar:
A good look at some upcoming talent - Max Domi was amazing at this last year. I want to see how Dylan Strome and Travis Konecny look:
http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2015/12/1/9827468/canada-2016-world-junior-championship-selection-camp-roster

Corroborating the aforementioned stats about Taylor Halls good year:
http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2015/12/1/9818544/taylor-hall-is-having-a-terrific-season-you-havent-heard-about-edmonton-oilers

Quarter Season awards:
http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2015/11/24/9790960/2016-nhl-awards-quarter-season-mark-hart-vezina-calder-norris