The Keeper Corner #10-1

We reach the final installment of my review of the 2015 rankings I used for short term evaluations of a 6x6 dynasty league.  These rankings are purely based off projected stats, so there were no biases at all.  After posting this, I will post my before and after a year of ownership in this league. Below the rankings, I'll post my full list #1-300.  Let's get back to listing players.

#10 Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL

$37.10, 88 R, 27 HR, 75 RBI, 2 SB, .314 AVG, .948 OPS

This is the best example of my rankings be purely based off projection.  I would never take Tulo this high, but when on the field, Tulo has posted elite numbers, which obviously influence a machine's projections.  The key to that last sentence was the phrase "has posted".  Tulo was league average last year at the plate, and in his career his road numbers are .274/.347/.462.  Now that he's out of Coors, despite Toronto also being a hitter's haven, I really think Tulo's value drops significantly.  Add that teams are constantly talking about the impact of playing on an artificial surface, paired with Tulo being known for leg injuries, and we have a player I will be avoiding as I anticipate him being overpriced in 2016.

#9 Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, TOR

$ 37.53, 87 R, 36 HR, 102 RBI, 6 SB, .270 AVG, .895 OPS

Another heavy hitter at the Rogers Centre, he posted his forth consecutive season with an OPS over .900, and smacked over 30 home runs.  His 94 R, and 111 RBI were both career highs.  He had great plate discipline yet again, and next season it's hard to not expect another elite performance.  He has a skill set that ages well, a great home park, a hitter's division, and a star studded surrounding lineup, invest with confidence.

#8 Felix Hernandez, SP, SEA

$40.04, 234 K, 18 W, 2.31 ERA, .991 WHIP, 4.776 K/BB

Felix is one of the 8 players projected to earn $40 on draft day, and he fell short of that despite winning 18 games.  He was giving up more homers, his strikeouts dropped, and his walks were up.  While not a fantasy stat, his 2.8 WAR was the worst of his career, and its indicative of his performance.  His pitch f/x data doesn't show a drop in velocity, but what is unusual is that after a career of great sinkers leading him to victory, his sinker was absolutely killed in 2015.  Teams should not be hitting .288/.373/.490 against the pitch he throws most often, that's a 152 wRC+.  Its scary to view him as your ace in 2016, and I wouldn't want to invest one of my first 4 picks in him next season.  If he's around after that, I'll likely be an owner, but big arms coming off poor years isn't where I've made my money in the past.

#7 Jose Bautista, OF, TOR

$40.50, 100 R, 34 HR, 94 RBI, 7 SB, .277 AVG, .908 OPS

He's a beast.  He hit 40 homers, had over 100 R and RBI, and he walked more than he struck out.  When you have two other teammates that were ranked in the top 10, and the AL MVP, it is safe to say you are in good shape going forward.  He's an elite bat, I wouldn't be worried about his age.

#6 Giancarlo Stanton, OF, MIA

$46.82, 92 R, 40 HR, 106 RBI, 9 SB, .276 AVG, .933 OPS

Stanton was hitting for power at a blistering pace to start last season before breaking his hamate bone.  The beauty of this injury is that they remove the bone after players have it, so he will not be susceptible to reinjuring himself the same way.  If his hand feels good going into 2016, you can have Stanton back in your lineups as a premium power hitter.  I'm not concerned with the 20-30 games he misses annually, because he is so far above average while on the field.

#5 Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT

$46.82, 96 R, 27 HR, 84 RBI, 21 SB, .311 AVG, .934 OPS

Probably the second most well rounded player in baseball.  McCutchen played through knee issues and only had 11 steals, besides that he was his normal self hitting .292/.401/.488 with 23 homers 91 R, and 96 RBI.  Next year he'll back back in my top 10, he's an elite hitter.

#4 Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, ARI

$49.41, 102 R, 29 HR, 101 RBI, 15 SB, .297 AVG, .927 OPS

Goldschmidt had high expectations placed on him, and he exceeded them with ease.  He was a fantasy monster, hitting 33 home runs, and stealing 21 bags.  He's 28 years old and is primed to enjoy the peak of his career in the thin air of Arizona.

#3 Clayton Kershaw, SP, LAD

$49.94, 253 K, 20 W, 2.129 ERA, .915 WHIP, 5.884 K/BB

Kershaw is the best of the best when it comes to arms.  After striking out 300 batters in 2015, while walking fewer than 2 per 9, and posting a 50% ground ball rate, he's elite in every metric that he can control.  This price is more than I'd ever be willing to pay for a pitcher, but you can't find a hole in Kershaw's game to criticize him.

#2 Miguel Cabrera, 1B, DET

$50.11, 94 R, 29 HR, 109 RBI, 2 SB, .318 AVG, .940 OPS

Cabrera had calf and back injuries which forced him to limp around the field, but he continued to rake as he had in the past.  I expect him to be an elite hitter again next season, and while I'll have to rank Goldschmidt ahead of him in 2016, I'd still happily take Cabrera if I'm priced out in the Goldy sweepstakes.

#1 Mike Trout, OF, LAA

$54.43, 113 R, 32 HR, 97 RBI, 20 SB, .296 OPS, .937 OPS

Perhaps the least surprising part of this whole list is Trout being on top.  He's an elite power and average hitter, and despite watching his steal totals dip, you have to realize that he's still giving you 10+ SB, and nobody would be surprised if that number went up as Trout seems to improve aspects of his game at will sometimes.  He's the clear #1, and the only thing surprising about him now is that he actually wasn't good the first time he came up.  He may be the best player we ever see in our lives.

With that, I conclude the review of my rankings, as always I'm open to explaining them even though I generated these with projections, and didn't physically sit and rank every player one by one.  Please feel free to ask any questions in the comments or ask me on twitter @jackcecil1.  I hope you enjoyed the review, and get ready for 2016 rankings that are coming!