The Keeper Corner #199-185

We continue down my rankings that I used prior to the start of this season.  These were made for a 14 team, 6x6 league with OPS and K/BB added onto the standard 5x5 CATs.  Today's group hits a large group of aging players who were former fantasy studs.  With that, let us proceed to the ranks.

#199 Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, CLE

$ 5.19, 64 R, 16HR, 63RBI, 3 SB, .271 AVG, .763 OPS

Chisenhall wasn't good, and is no longer the starting 3B on the Indians.  I wouldn't invest in him going forward as his batted ball profile is bad, he has no speed, and his career high in homers is 13.  I haven't found anything to indicate he has underlying stats that should indicate more to come.

#198 Michael Saunders, OF, TOR

$5.20, 61 R, 15 HR, 51 RBI, 10 SB, .264 AVG, .809 OPS

Saunders has always shown tantalizing power & speed, and defused everyone's love for him with his inability to make contact.  This season was totally lost in his development as he suffered injuries before the season started, and had setbacks once he got on the field.  He only managed 9 games.  He'll be 29 and deserves another one year deal next season, but I do not know who is going to award that to him and park factors are important to his game.

#197 Rougned Odor, 2B, TEX

$5.20, 66R, 15HR, 69 RBI, 12 SB, .269 AVG, .711 OPS

Not to be confused with his brother also named Rougned Odor who plays 2B for the Texas Rangers...  The real Rougned had a fine line, and basically matched his projections, but that fails to explain his season properly.  Odor had a very bad first half, which resulted in his demotion early on.  His second half was an .834 OPS, good for the 6^th best amongst second basemen.  He'll be 22 years old next year and he's shown a lot of promise.  His walk rate is incredibly low, but most players his age are still in AA or lower, so him getting this development at the MLB level is very impressive.  Going forward I think Rougned should continue to grow and will eventually be a top 5 2B.

#196 Michael Pineda, SP, NYY

$5.29, 134K, 11W, 3.524 ERA, 1.211 WHIP, 2.914 K/BB

Michael Pineda is going to be my breakout pitcher in 2016.  He was healthier this season, amassing 160 innings, and not having injury issues that have followed him the past few seasons.  In the offseason I collect info on pitchers, and make spreadsheets, one of them being pitcher risk analysis.  Without getting into it, Pineda is in the top group, a group made up of only 9 pitchers.  He was in the top third of all pitchers with over 130 innings in GB%, K%, and BB%.  Out of those arms, he was also the least lucky with his ERA being 1.03 runs higher than his FIP.  I don't expect him to magically be given all of that, but I also don't think his home run rate to be as high next season.  If he can pitch 200 innings, Pineda could be a fantasy ace in 2016.

#195 Luke Gregerson, RP, HOU

$5.29, 63K, 4W, 17 SV, 2.571 ERA, 1.057 WHIP, 3.706 K/BB

Gregerson far outperformed my projected value by accumulating 31 saves, having a K/BB over 5, and a WHIP under 1.  Next season he should return to his job as the Astros closer, on a team that I expect to improve next season.

#194 Rick Porcello, SP, BOS

$5.35, 140 K, 14 W, 3.768 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 3.182

I don't know why, but I keep liking Porcello.  He had a strong K/BB (3.92), that's 20^th in all of baseball.  Of course, 14% of his fly balls becoming homers will doom him, but that's not in line with what he's done in his career, and his babip grew by 20 points this season, something that I can't find a good reason for happening.  Next season, I can easily see myself rostering Porcello as my last arm and seeing his Wins and ratios both go up with more normal luck.

#193 Aaron Hill, 2B, ARI

$5.44, 65 R, 15 HR, 64 RBI, 5 SB, .270 AVG, .758 OPS

I'm done with Aaron Hill.  He had his time a few years ago, and took advantage of great hitters parks.  He's now behind Nick Ahmed, Chris Owings, Brandon Drury, and Jake Lamb.  He'll be 34 next season, and I don't see him regaining his power or speed of yore.  He just isn't good, don't keep him.

#192 Dan Haren, SP, MIA

$5.59, 138K, 9 W, 4.091 ERA, 1.227 WHIP, 3.833 K/BB

Haren had a decent season, and has now retired.

#192 Brad Boxberger, RP, TB

$5.64, 110K, 4 W, 10 SV, 2.52 ERA, 1.107 WHIP, 3.333 K/BB

Jake McGee got hurt in the beginning of the season, and Boxberger never gave the old closer his job back.  Boxberger managed to hold onto the job in the unstable closer situation that is the Tampa Bay Rays, he did this with huge strikeout, walk, and homer totals.  It's strange, but he might have been the three true outcome leader for closers last season.  Next season I expect him to start as the closer, but Its hard to project much job security on a player who walks so many batters, and gives up so many homers on a team known for switching it up.

#190 Justin Verlander, SP, DET

$5.69, 191K, 13 W, 4.029 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 2.938 K/BB

Verlander beat his ERA, WHIP, and K/BB projections.  Injury kept him well short of his Strikeout and Win projections.  Going forward I expect a fairly average fantasy pitcher.  He did have his second lowest babip season of his career, but also had a career high fly ball rate.  Fly balls can suppress batting average, but its unreasonable for anyone to expect his homeruns to not to slide upwards as well, with this new approach.  Perhaps Verlander has learned to be a be more of finesse, pitch to contact pitcher, as his pitch mix has changed with him throwing the most fastballs since 2010 and the fewest changeups since 2010.  Its an interesting move for a player who has experienced diminished velocity in recent years.  I'll need to look further into him this offseason, but he seems like a very risky player to own next season.

#189 Tony Watson, RP, PIT

$5.82, 75 K, 5W, 2 SV, 2.16 ERA, 1.013 WHIP, 4.688 K/BB

Watson struck out far fewer batters, but lowered his ERA and WHIP.  While an excellent reliever, he's showing signs of aging, and next season will be turning 31.  Next season he'll be behind Melancon again, and his owners will have to hope for injury, as it seems like both relievers are on the downward slope of their career arc.

#188 Jose Quintana, SP, CWS

$5.95, 165 K, 13 W, 3.600 ERA, 1.264 WHIP, 2.75 K/BB

I'm starting to think Quintana's thing is having a low three's ERA and a 1.2s WHIP.  He did it for the third straight year, He did lower his walk rate to a career best 1.92, which boosted his K/BB.  His line drive rate and babip rose for the third straight season, so next year in his age 27 season we will see if he can continue to reduce the walks and improve or get hit harder, and begin to fall off.  He has average stuff, which from the left side plays up, but the book is not out on Quintana.  We'll have to wait and see in Spring Training to see if Quintana has any tricks up his sleeve.

#187 Chase Headley, 3B, NYY

$5.98, 66R, 17 HR, 61 RBI, 9 SB, .262 AVG, .771 OPS

Chase Headley is perpetually overrated in fantasy baseball because of his one 30 homer season.  Last season he put up the worst isolated power season of his career, despite moving to Yankee Stadium.  Next season he will be further down this list towards the unownable players

#186 Carl Crawford, OF, LAD

$6.04 66R, 9 HR, 44 RBI, 22 SB, .288 AVG, .745 OPS

Crawford only had 193 PA's, so he fell short of all his counting projections, and his lingering injuries only made his production while he was on the field, subpar.  I've never been a Crawford fan even when he was a top 25 pick, so its very safe to assume he will not be on a single team of mine next year when the best case scenario is him having the most playing time out of Van Slyke (who will already get all the PAs vs lefties), Enrique Hernandez, and Andre Ethier in left field.

#185 Shin-Soo Choo, OF, TEX

$6.21, 79 R, 15 HR, 46 RBI, 12 SB, .263 AVG, .783 OPS

Choo quietly blew away his projections by playing a full healthy season, and allowing his high walk strategy be the fuel that helped all other Rangers accumulate RBIs.  I like Choo, but I'm not sure what his price will be next season.  He can no longer run, but trusting him, Adrian Beltre, Prince Fielder, and Mitch Moreland to reproduce what they just did is hard to imagine.  All of those players have their warts, and unless I feel like I'm getting them at a bargain, I cannot invest in any of them.

This group had a lot of veterans, something that is criminally frowned upon in keeper leagues, but a lot of production was realized, and likely at a below market price.