:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/47577387/usa-today-8810774.0.jpg)
The Thursday NFL game is at the very bottom as the remainder of the NFL picks won't be posted until the weekend.
Week 9
Straight: 16/17 94% (arrrrrgh it could have been 100% if Duke won!)
Spread: 7/17 41%
Year to Date
Straight: 78%
Spread: 53%
Change of Format a bit here this week. You can get straight to each pick and if you want further analysis you can read about each game underneath.
Week 10
Northern Illinois Huskies @ Toledo Rockets (Tol -8) - I omitted this game because I wasn't sure if I could get my picks in on time.
Baylor Bears @ Kansas State Wildcats (Bay -17) - If there is one thing I'm learning this season. Thursday night games are traps. Baylor wins but Kansas State makes it close. No metrics here, going off what I've seen.
Mississippi St. Bulldogs @ Missouri Tigers (Ms St. -8) - the 22nd best pass offense meets the 6th best pass defense. It's a Thursday game and this should be a trap so Bulldogs win but barely. Missouri is 3rd in the country in points against.
Temple Owls @ SMU Mustangs (Temp -12.5) - SMU lost 5 of their last 6 matchups by at least 9 points. (the one 3 points loss was the James Madison Dukes. They face a RANKED Temple team fresh off a tough loss. I see little that shows SMU having vastly improved as the season progressed. Temple should win this one by 18 as P.J. Walker throws for 2 and Jaham Thomas runs in 2 touchdowns.
Vanderbilt Commodores @ Florida Gators (Fla -20.5) - The Commodores have a decent defense. They are 23rd in points against per game. Only three opponents have scored at least 20points on them this season. However, Florida is somehow doing better without their starting QB having beaten their 3 of their last opponents by 23 points. Florida covers.
Duke Blue Devils @ UNC Tar Heels (UNC -8) - I will admit I can't pick Duke right, when they should win they lose and when they should lose they win. UNC has one of the best Pass Defenses in the country..and one of the worst Rush Defenses. Meanwhile Duke has one of the best pass defenses in the country AS WELL but they also have a very good rush defense. UNC wins, Duke with the points.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Pittsburgh Panthers (ND -7.5) - Notre Dame is good...at home. On the road they have beaten a bad Virginia team by 7, lost to Clemson and beat Temple by 4 points. It's not that they are bad, it's that they are a different team. They win but Pittsburgh with the points.
Stanford Cardinal @ Colorado Buffaloes (Stan -15.5) - Colorado is talented offensively enough to stay in many of these games and keep it within 7-10points. They are at home, I take Stanford to win but Buffaloes with the points. Stanford - much like Notre Dame isn't ...bad on the road but they aren't the same team.
Arkansas Razorbacks @ Ole Miss Rebels @Miss -10.5) - Heard the phrase anything you can do I can do better? Ole Miss will be doing that airing out the ball on Arkansas porous pass defense. Arkansas is getting better though and will keep this within 10 points.
Florida State Seminoles @ Clemson Tigers (Clem -12.5) - My bold pick of the week - Clemson is not only going to beat FSU, they are going to stomp over them, this will be a drudging of 20+ pt win for Clemson. They are a very ardent team and this game means the playoffs for them.
Cincinnati Bearcats @ Houston Cougars (Hou -8.5) - Two high flying offenses. Cincinnati has a two headed monster with Gunner Kiel and Hayden Moore airing the ball out. They will put up a good fight but the
Cougars are playing too well right now. Houston wins and covers the points.
TCU Horned Frogs @ Oklahoma State Cowboys (TCU -5) - This is going to be a fantastic game to watch. Both teams are playing at that elite tier right now and their offenses can't be stopped. I lean towards TCU being "more can't be stopped" as they win by a TD and cover the 5points. TCU has a slightly better run game behind Aaron Green and Trevone Boykin.
Iowa Hawkeyes @ Indiana Hoosiers (Iowa -7) - Iowa has won 6 of their 8 games by at least 9points this season. Indiana holds strong until the 4th quarter when they fall apart. Iowa covers the points.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Michigan Wolverines (Mich -22.5) - Michigan gets their defense back on track after a close call with Minnesota and shuts out Rutgers. They cover 22points in the win.
UCLA Bruins @ Oregon State Beavers (UCLA -17.5) - The Beavers are getting better as the season progresses. UCLA wins but Oregon State with the generous 17.5 points.
Michigan State Spartans @ Nebraska Cornhuskers (MSU -5) - 121st vs. 13th. That is Nebraska's pass defense vs. their rush defense right now. Connor Cook will look to exploit the former in this matchup where the Spartans prefer airing the ball out anyway. This should also allow them the touchdown lead to cover the 5 points. Nebraska just lost to Purdue and will be hungry to prove they are better than that in this night game but in reality, they are bad this season.
Navy Midshipmen @ Memphis Tigers (Mem -8.5) - Memphis is red hot now. Navy is good but Memphis at home wins by 10.
Iowa St. Cyclones @ Oklahoma Sooners (Okla -26) - Oklahoma has been crushing all opponents lately but the Cyclones kept Baylor and TCU within 26 points. Sooners win by Cyclones with the points.
Utah Utes @ Washington Huskies (Wash -1) - Figuring out Utah is a Sisyphean effort these days. They SHOULD win AND they are getting points so naively I'm going with the Utes.
Auburn Tigers @ Texas A&M Aggies (TA&M -7)- Aggies cover the points. They have a good pass game and Myles Garrett is among the sack leaders in NCAAF.
Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Ohio State Buckeyes (OSU -23) - Ohio State wins, but Cardale doesn't cover spreads. Take Minnesota with the points.
LSU Tigers @ Alabama Crimson Tide (Ala -6.5) - Alabama at home will be amped up for the night win here. Crimson Tide wins. LSU will keep it within 6.5 points as Leonard Fournette battles against the 3rd best rush defense in the country. He'll still score at least one touchdown.
Thursday NFL game
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (Cin -11.5) - Cleveland plays the Bengals tough each year. Well..I think the Bengals play down to the Browns. The Bengals have only beat two teams by more than 11.5 points. Bengals win. Browns with the points.