Fantasy Hockey Quasi-Early Trends and Pretends 4.0 (NHL Power Rankings)

We are just over 15% into the 2015-2016 NHL season. 
Below are the rankings for teams Goals, Assists and Shots on Goal at home and on the road. A low ranking is positive, for example Boston Bruins have the most Total Goals right now and are ranked 1 in the overall Total Goal Rank.

We are in the 4^th week of the season. This is where the stats lines become a little ambiguous. Early anomalies are starting to straighten out and it's in this gray area where some of the stats tell the true story and some are false pretenses evening out. With this sample size - I'm going to toss out some teams and players to watch going forward given teams success records at home vs. on the road.

Top 5 Home Teams:  Montreal Canadiens, Dallas Stars, Minnesota Wild, Boston Bruins and New York Islanders (in their new venue).
Top 5 Away Teams: Washington Capitals, Montreal Canadiens, Boston Bruins, Los Angeles Kings and Dallas Stars.

Some Trends to believe in:
Nashville Predators - They are 12^th in goals, 13^th in assists and exactly where they should be across the board. This is a team that is above average and works the puck around a fair amount creating opportunities and assists at an above average rate. They are 7^th in ‘Corsi For per 60' (CF60 which calculates shots for plus missed shots and block shots across 60 minutes) and around 10^th in Shots on Goal. Peter Laviolette system is working just as it should right now.

Dallas Stars - In total assists, Dallas ranks second currently. They rank 1^st at home and 4^th away.  Lindy Ruff has a team that is working well as a unit. Their passing is constant and they keep their feet moving which creates open players and opportunities. Believe in early stat lines from Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and John Klingberg. This team will score the goals but more importantly will see assists (both primary and secondary) quite often on their goals.

Tampa Bay Lighting - are 18^th in the league in goals scored and that is NOT a fluke. Their shots are down (22^nd ranking at home and 26^th away) and have a 14^th CF60 ranking. Talented scoring by the Triplets line of Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat and Nikita Kucherov coupled with Steven Stamkos makes the most of the opportunities they have. At their current pace, they will not be the league leading goal scoring team they were last year but you can always expect their stars to make the most of the opportunities they get which can mean few shots and more goals.

Vancouver Canucks - They are another team much like Predators that are in the above average category. They are 10^th in goals and 15^th in assists. They are playing better on the road where they are 10^th in shots, 8^th in goals and 8^th in assists (they have 2 away games this week). They struggle more at home where they are 15^th in shots, 15^th in goals and 12^th in assists. At this pace, the Canucks will continue to score in the top 3^rd and maintain an equal assist to goal ratio under Willie Desjardins. They have a strong top 6 in forwards and it tapers off a bit after that.

Pretends:
Pittsburgh Penguins - They are currently 24^th in goals. 20^th at home and 25^th on the road. They are also 2^nd in shots at home. Unlike Toronto (who I also think will see a boost in goals in the oncoming weeks), Pittsburgh is loaded with three 30 goals capable goal scorers (Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby and Phil Kessel). What they have here is a chemistry issue. They added Kessel in at the same time as a new coach, it will take a few games to adapt to Mike Johnston's system which can be fast and involves an aggressive play forward (and also concedes some odd man situations against). Their CF60 puts them in the middle of the pack which WOULD STILL be an increase over their current 24^th. 

Chicago Blackhawks - Currently 24^th in goals alongside the Penguins. Their CF60 is currently 5^th. With these scorers it's only a matter of time until goals fall in. Taking it a step further - on the road they are 2^nd in shots and 28^th in goals. This will come back down to Earth as they find the net on the road. Oh and they have 3 games on the road this week so we can put the test to theory.

Boston Bruins - They are 1^st in Goals right now and I am not sold. 1. As a team they are scoring on 17% of their shots among their goal scorers. This is unsustainable. 2.  Their CF60 is 20^th in the league. 3. Corroborating #2 - they are 24^th in shots at home vs. a Home Goal Rank of 4. They are the inverse of the Blackhawks - an opportune team that will come back down to earth. Expect to see David Krejci's numbers come down to earth.

Florida Panthers - They are currently 6^th in total goals and 8^th in total assists. Don't get me wrong, this team is playing with a ton of energy, forechecking and turning up the tempo on games. Much like Boston - their scoring percentages are unsustainable. They are close to scoring at 15% of shots among their goal scorers which will go down in the near future. This team should fall more within the average territory of 13-17 ranking for goals. Jagr's hurt hamstring will hurt a bit and might be offset by some goal production from Jonathan Huberdeau but look for this team to come back to earth a bit after the three home games this week (where the team is thriving currently).

The Jury is currently out:
Toronto Maple Leafs should be seeing some more goal scoring then they currently are. Here is a snapshot of the team. Mike Babcock is a good coach, he's not a demi-god but he's good. The Maple Leafs don't have the overall talent that the Red Wings have. Nazem Kadri, Dion Phaneuf, Brad Boyes and Shawn Matthias are all at least 2 goals below expectations given their play and shots. I expect this team to be just below 20^th in goals for which adds another half goal for per game.

Buffalo Sabres are another team that is firing a lot of shots. They are 8^th at home and 1^st on the road. Much like Toronto - Dan Bylsma is a good/solid coach. The talent on this team isn't stellar but there are some good pieces there. Given this I would expect to see their total goals to fall a little lower than 22^nd, more like the 15-17 area. I expect a few more goals at this point out of: Cody Franson, Rasmus Ristolainen, Evander Kane and Brian Gionta.They have two games on the road and I'll be eager to see if they can find the back of the net more given a sustainable shot total.

Big Goal to Assist Gaps:
New York Rangers 10^th in goals; 16^th in assists. Partially believable with the solo talents of Mats Zucarello, Oscar Lindberg and Rick Nash. Additionally this team is capitalizing big on turnovers in the opponents defensive zone. I expect the ratio to be more like 10^th in goals an  13^th in assists so in general expect fewer assists on this team. 
Colorado Avalanche  19^th in goals and 13^th in assists. Personally I think this team passes too much. They look for the perfect look instead of just firing in more shots. When you have Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog, Jarome Iginla and Nathan Mackinnon you let them fire the puck as much as possible.
Pittsburgh Penguins 24^th in goals and 29^th in assists. Chemistry issue aforementioned, they will start to feed more goals as the season progresses.
Philadelphia Flyers 28^th in goals and 23^rd on assists. A lot of their goals come from Power Plays where they cycle the puck and this lends itself to assists. Most Power Play points have an assist.
San Jose Sharks 12^th in goals and 16^th in assists. For starters their power play is struggling AND they are second in the league in shorthanded goals but more definitively, Peter Deboer is good at forcing teams into narrow areas and creating turnovers and more importantly odd man rushes. Assists should come down a bit as their power play improves.

NHL Rankings