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I continue with the review of my pre2015 rankings I used for a 6x6 league. Once you get into the sub 100 ranks there are no longer value picks, but you can waste value on players whom whose primarily production can be supplemented by cheaper players. With that said, I can't think of the last speed player or closer I invested in the top 100 picks. So while there are players who were projected to be worth this much, I personally wouldn't have drafted them. Side note, after I do these 15 players, I am going to post #300-70 players, as one reader said it was hard to keep up with who I had been ranking. Now, lets continue with the list.
#84 Jayson Werth, OF, WSH
$15.69, 69 R, 15 HR, 62 RBI, 8 SB, .292 AVG, .850 OPS
Werth only played 88 games because of a wrist injury. I expect something similar to 2014 if he can remain healthy during the 2016 season (80R, 15 HR, 80 RBI, 10 SB, .290). He's been a very solid hitter his whole career. I expect more reliable production next season.
#83 Todd Frazier, 3B/1B, CIN
$15.81, 79 R, 24 HR, 79 RBI, 12 SB, .260 AVG, .766 OPS
Frazier blasted 35 homers last season, but hung a lot of his owners out to dry in the second half, including the fantasy playoffs. 25 of those bombs were in the first half, in the second half his OPS dropped from .922 to .664, his strikeout rate jumped from 17% to 23%, and he just didn't hit the ball as hard as he did in the first half. Next year I think he'll hit fewer homers, but also experience better batted ball luck, and have a better average. He had the 20th best hard hit rate last year, which should be worth more than a .255 average.
#82 David Robertson, RP, CWS
$15.88, 100 K, 4 W, 41 SV, 2.375 ERA, 1.111 WHIP, 4.00 K/BB
Robertson posted another great season, and had an undeservedly high ERA as the huge gap between his ERA and FIP and xFIP would indicate. The terrible White Sox defense isn't going anywhere, but with so many strikeouts and so few walks, I'd expect him to be back under 3 with his ERA next season, and a WHIP approaching 1. He's a great reliever, but I wouldn't draft him at #82. He's valuable, but don't burn picks on guys like this unless they fall (Don't pay for saves)
#81 James Shields, SP, SD
$16.64, 190 K, 14 W, 3.509 ERA, 1.202 WHIP, 3.80 K/BB
Shields went to San Diego, and saw an unusual jump in his three true outcomes. His strikeouts, walks, and home runs all increased last season. 13 wins and 216 strikeouts are great, however owners definitely expected more than a 3.91 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. He was hit harder than he has been hit in the past, and this may be the first sign of him having diminished velocity. His pitches were all roughly 1 mph slower last season than the year prior, and at 33 it's a real possibility he's in serious decline. Next year at 34 years old he will be a risky player to draft, even while playing in Petco Park.
#80 Justin Morneau, 1B, COL
$16.92, 61 R, 19 HR, 76 RBI, 0 SB, .295 AVG, .825 OPS
Morneau dealt with neck and more concussion issues last year. He only played 49 games and fell short of his projections. Next year at 35 years old I believe he'll be able to find more work if he's interested in continuing his career, but a move away from Colorado won't help his value, and the Rockies have already made it clear they are looking at other options.
#79 Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, LAD
$16.98, 169 K, 13 W, 3.135 ERA, 1.174 WHIP, 4.297 K/BB
Ryu missed the 2015 season with a shoulder injury. These are risky to deal with, and you're going to have to wait and see what Ryu looks like next season in spring training.
#78 Jeff Samardzija, SP, CWS
$17.07, 206 K, 14 W, 3.516 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 3.492 K/BB
If it could have gone wrong, it went wrong for Shark last season. He struck out less, walked more, and gave up more homers. His babip went up, his strand rate dropped, and his ground ball percentage plummeted. I can't find anything terribly unusual with his pitch f/x information, but his I'll devote more time to this later in the offseason. Samardzija is a free agent, so a move away from US Cellular, will help, and a pitching coach who can turn him back into a ground ball pitcher would be even better. In 2015 he'll be 31 and if you're drafting him, you're hoping for a return to his old batted ball profile, and a revival of his strikeout rate.
#77 Adam LaRoche, 1B, CWS
$17.25, 70 R, 25 HR, 79 RBI, 3 SB, .263 AVG, .834 OPS
LaRoche just looked old last year. Everything about him made him seem like he was behind the game. He was chasing pitches he didn't previously chase, was swinging more, and was missing more. To me this indicates he was gearing up to swing earlier, and giving himself less room for error by guessing earlier in the balls flight. He has another year on his deal with the White Sox, but the Sox seemed ready to let other hitters get playing time in the DH slot instead of devoting it fully to LaRoche.
#76 Jose Reyes, SS, TOR
$17.33, 90 R, 11 HR, 51 RBI, 30 SB, .287 AVG, .748 OPS
Reyes missed time with rib and Achilles injuries last season. Last year he posted his worst season since the Mets decided he should be moved to second for Kaz Matsui. An interesting note is that he actually performed considerably worse once he got to the Rockies. Perhaps he's getting older, or maybe he's unhappy being in Colorado watching his old teammates get into the playoffs without him. Either way, looking at Reyes right now is a risky proposition. Part of me wants to say, anyone going to Colorado with a dip in production is a great buy low. But so much of his value is tied into his batting average and speed. Last year both of those went in the toilet, but knowing what I know about the Coors effect, I'm likely going to be buying into Reyes off a down year in 2016.
#75 Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA
$17.82, 73 R, 25 HR, 84 RBI, 9 SB, .265 AVG, .783 OPS
Seager almost matched his projections perfectly. He's one of the few top 100 players who I can't imagine being a top 50 player, but would always rank in the top 100. In his 5 seasons in the MLB he's hit between .258 and .268, that's consistency. His home runs are on a 5 year upward trend, and with the Mariner offense improving, his R and RBI production are slowly creeping up. He sprays the ball from line to line, his line drive rate keeps improving, and his hard hit rate is good. I won't be ranking him as a super star, but knowing what you are going to get has sneaky value.
#74 Ian Kinsler, 2B, DET
$17.88, 94 R, 16 HR, 77 RBI, 14 SB, .276 AVG, .750 OPS
Kinsler significantly lowered his pull rate resulting in more balls sprayed around the field, and hit the highest percentage of line drives ever. This helped his babip jump after being a dead pull hitter previously in his career. He is no longer a speed player, but if he's going to keep hitting liners all over the field, he can definitely replicate his value from 2015 without pouring on homers or steals. Also, the return of Miguel Cabrera for a full year, and the Tigers looking to spend could improve the lineup and help Kinsler improve his R or RBI depending on his lineup position.
#73 Nelson Cruz, OF, SEA
$17.94, 74 R, 27 HR, 87 RBI, 5 SB, .262 AVG, .783 OPS
Did I say 27 homers, I meant 44 HR with 90R and 93 RBI, along with a .300 batting average. His .350 babip was sky high, and considering 44 of his hits didn't land in play, its not likely he is so fortunate next season with his batting average. Next year, you'll be paying for his 2015, but you'll be praying you don't get his games played from 2013, 2011, 2010, or 2009. A .280 season with 30+ homers is what you'll be hoping for, along with a better offensive season from the other Mariners surrounding him.
#72 Evan Gattis, C, HOU
$18.18, 63R, 31 HR, 84 RBI, 0 SB, .264 AVG, .821 OPS
Gattis made an interesting decision last year: he hit far more grounders, more line drives, and he sprayed balls around the field more than ever before. For most people this would result in a batting average improvement, but not for the lumbering slugger, this only gave him a .264 babip, and consequentially a .246 batting average. Despite popular belief, Gattis actually had a below average strikeout rate. If Gattis was to return to his old slightly higher fly ball rate, and stick with a sub 20% strikeout rate, we could see a big power spike from him in 2016.
#71 Adam Wainwright, SP, STL
$18.23, 177 K, 14 W, 3.262 ERA, 1.144 WHIP, 4.023 K/BB
Wainwright tore his Achilles tendon and missed almost all of 2015. While this hurt all of his 2015 owners, if you are looking to keep him, the questions about how much his elbow can take after his last Tommy John surgery can be put to rest with almost a full year of healthy rest. I do not think he'll have a resurgence in his strikeout rate, which previously made him an ace, as its been in constant decline since he tore his UCL in 2011.
#70 Chris Davis, 1B/3B, BAL
$18.35, 75R, 33 HR, 87 RBI, 3 SB, .241 AVG, .826 OPS
Crush Davis had an absolutely monster contract year after the nuclear disaster that he had in 2014. His power will play anywhere, but a move away from Baltimore would hurt his value. I enjoyed owning Davis, and saw him produce all year long, I think 2014 can be put in the back of your mind, as he'll be a slugger anywhere he goes.
As requested by a reader here are the ranks up to #70. If you have any questions about them please feel free to comment below or reach out to me on twitter at @jackcecil1
Rank |
Name |
Position |
Value |
70 |
Chris Davis |
1B, 3B |
18.35 |
71 |
Adam Wainwright |
P |
18.23 |
72 |
Evan Gattis |
C |
18.18 |
73 |
Nelson Cruz |
OF, DH |
17.94 |
74 |
Ian Kinsler |
2B |
17.88 |
75 |
Kyle Seager |
3B |
17.82 |
76 |
Jose Reyes |
SS |
17.33 |
77 |
Adam LaRoche |
1B |
17.25 |
78 |
Jeff Samardzija |
P |
17.07 |
79 |
Hyun-Jin Ryu |
P |
16.98 |
80 |
Justin Morneau |
1B |
16.92 |
81 |
James Shields |
P |
16.64 |
82 |
David Robertson |
P |
15.88 |
83 |
Todd Frazier |
3B, 1B |
15.81 |
84 |
Jayson Werth |
OF |
15.69 |
85 |
Carlos Carrasco |
P |
15.68 |
86 |
Devin Mesoraco |
C |
15.5 |
87 |
J.D. Martinez |
OF |
15.47 |
88 |
Phil Hughes |
P |
15.37 |
89 |
Melky Cabrera |
OF |
15.23 |
90 |
Matt Harvey |
P |
15.06 |
91 |
Kenley Jansen |
P |
15 |
92 |
Starlin Castro |
SS |
14.96 |
93 |
Glen Perkins |
P |
14.91 |
94 |
Hunter Pence |
OF |
14.85 |
95 |
Jorge Soler |
OF |
14.76 |
96 |
Pedro Alvarez |
3B |
14.65 |
97 |
Dellin Betances |
P |
14.63 |
98 |
Julio Teheran |
P |
14.5 |
99 |
Brandon Moss |
1B, OF |
14.36 |
100 |
Mark Trumbo |
1B, OF |
14.23 |
101 |
Matt Carpenter |
3B |
14.19 |
102 |
Manny Machado |
3B |
14.17 |
103 |
Jason Heyward |
OF |
14.07 |
104 |
Hisashi Iwakuma |
P |
13.98 |
105 |
Huston Street |
P |
13.64 |
106 |
Rusney Castillo |
OF |
13.51 |
107 |
Jacob deGrom |
P |
13.46 |
108 |
Dustin Pedroia |
2B |
13.22 |
109 |
Neil Walker |
2B |
13.08 |
110 |
Alex Cobb |
P |
13.03 |
111 |
Andrew Miller |
P |
12.97 |
112 |
Christian Yelich |
OF |
12.96 |
113 |
Sean Doolittle |
P |
12.95 |
114 |
Jonathan Papelbon |
P |
12.64 |
115 |
Jay Bruce |
OF |
12.6 |
116 |
Alex Gordon |
OF |
12.48 |
117 |
Marcell Ozuna |
OF |
12.23 |
118 |
Brian Dozier |
2B |
11.99 |
119 |
Homer Bailey |
P |
11.98 |
120 |
Lucas Duda |
1B |
11.93 |
121 |
Yadier Molina |
C |
11.84 |
122 |
Leonys Martin |
OF |
11.84 |
123 |
Matt Adams |
1B |
11.78 |
124 |
Cody Allen |
P |
11.7 |
125 |
Steve Cishek |
P |
11.5 |
126 |
Joaquin Benoit |
P |
11.45 |
127 |
Alex Wood |
P |
11.28 |
128 |
Jason Kipnis |
2B |
11.16 |
129 |
Brandon McCarthy |
P |
11.08 |
130 |
Trevor Rosenthal |
P |
10.92 |
131 |
Adam Lind |
1B, DH |
10.91 |
132 |
Kolten Wong |
2B |
10.81 |
133 |
Ben Zobrist |
2B, SS, OF |
10.79 |
134 |
Gerrit Cole |
P |
10.75 |
135 |
Chase Utley |
2B |
10.72 |
136 |
David Wright |
3B |
10.63 |
137 |
Charlie Blackmon |
OF |
10.55 |
138 |
Aramis Ramirez |
3B |
10.51 |
139 |
Anibal Sanchez |
P |
10.49 |
140 |
Ken Giles |
P |
10.26 |
141 |
Martin Prado |
3B, 2B |
10.14 |
142 |
Drew Smyly |
P |
10.14 |
143 |
Steve Pearce |
1B, OF |
10.05 |
144 |
Fernando Rodney |
P |
10 |
145 |
Jake Arrieta |
P |
9.99 |
146 |
Yan Gomes |
C |
9.8 |
147 |
Drew Storen |
P |
9.75 |
148 |
Gio Gonzalez |
P |
9.73 |
149 |
Daniel Murphy |
2B |
9.46 |
150 |
Michael Cuddyer |
OF |
9.39 |
151 |
Doug Fister |
P |
9.37 |
152 |
Michael Wacha |
P |
9.12 |
153 |
Joe Mauer |
1B |
9.04 |
154 |
Brett Gardner |
OF |
9.04 |
155 |
Hector Rondon |
P |
8.87 |
157 |
Scooter Gennett |
2B |
8.62 |
156 |
Alexei Ramirez |
SS |
8.62 |
158 |
Tyson Ross |
P |
8.6 |
159 |
Billy Butler |
DH, 1B |
8.54 |
160 |
Mat Latos |
P |
8.48 |
161 |
Howie Kendrick |
2B |
8.43 |
162 |
Eric Hosmer |
1B |
8.41 |
163 |
Garrett Richards |
P |
8.09 |
164 |
Brandon Belt |
1B |
8.07 |
165 |
Josh Harrison |
OF, 3B |
8.06 |
166 |
Jake McGee |
P |
8 |
167 |
Andrew Cashner |
P |
7.9 |
168 |
A.J. Pollock |
OF |
7.88 |
169 |
John Lackey |
P |
7.86 |
170 |
Marlon Byrd |
OF |
7.7 |
171 |
Jedd Gyorko |
2B |
7.55 |
172 |
Francisco Rodriguez |
P |
7.47 |
173 |
Yusmeiro Petit |
P |
7.45 |
174 |
Alex Rios |
OF |
7.39 |
175 |
Oswaldo Arcia |
OF |
7.32 |
176 |
Khris Davis |
OF |
7.19 |
177 |
Salvador Perez |
C |
7.15 |
178 |
Mike Fiers |
P |
7.06 |
179 |
Billy Hamilton |
OF |
6.84 |
180 |
Brian McCann |
C |
6.76 |
181 |
Addison Reed |
P |
6.6 |
183 |
Bartolo Colon |
P |
6.41 |
182 |
Lance Lynn |
P |
6.41 |
184 |
Scott Kazmir |
P |
6.37 |
185 |
Shin-Soo Choo |
OF, DH |
6.21 |
186 |
Carl Crawford |
OF |
6.04 |
187 |
Chase Headley |
3B |
5.98 |
188 |
Jose Quintana |
P |
5.95 |
189 |
Tony Watson |
P |
5.82 |
190 |
Justin Verlander |
P |
5.69 |
191 |
Brad Boxberger |
P |
5.64 |
192 |
Dan Haren |
P |
5.59 |
193 |
Aaron Hill |
2B |
5.44 |
194 |
Rick Porcello |
P |
5.35 |
195 |
Luke Gregerson |
P |
5.29 |
196 |
Michael Pineda |
P |
5.29 |
197 |
Rougned Odor |
2B |
5.2 |
198 |
Michael Saunders |
OF |
5.2 |
199 |
Lonnie Chisenhall |
3B |
5.19 |
200 |
Mike Leake |
P |
5.18 |
201 |
Ian Kennedy |
P |
5.12 |
202 |
Jonathon Niese |
P |
5.1 |
203 |
Wade Davis |
P |
5.07 |
204 |
Yasmany Tomas |
OF |
5.06 |
205 |
Wilin Rosario |
C |
5.05 |
206 |
Jhonny Peralta |
SS |
5 |
207 |
Torii Hunter |
OF |
4.71 |
208 |
Mike Napoli |
1B |
4.71 |
209 |
Matt Shoemaker |
P |
4.69 |
210 |
Jimmy Rollins |
SS |
4.66 |
211 |
Zach Britton |
P |
4.63 |
212 |
Russell Martin |
C |
4.44 |
213 |
Josh Reddick |
OF |
4.38 |
214 |
Collin McHugh |
P |
4.37 |
215 |
Jered Weaver |
P |
4.35 |
216 |
Brandon Finnegan |
P |
4.27 |
217 |
Jake Peavy |
P |
4.25 |
218 |
Matt Cain |
P |
4.25 |
219 |
Sergio Romo |
P |
4.25 |
220 |
Gregory Polanco |
OF |
4.2 |
221 |
Matt Wieters |
C |
4.12 |
222 |
CC Sabathia |
P |
4.11 |
223 |
Carlos Beltran |
OF, DH |
3.9 |
224 |
Erick Aybar |
SS |
3.89 |
225 |
Jake Odorizzi |
P |
3.79 |
227 |
Joe Nathan |
P |
3.74 |
226 |
Sonny Gray |
P |
3.74 |
228 |
Bobby Parnell |
P |
3.71 |
229 |
Dallas Keuchel |
P |
3.68 |
230 |
Danny Salazar |
P |
3.66 |
232 |
Curtis Granderson |
OF |
3.65 |
231 |
Joc Pederson |
OF |
3.65 |
233 |
Kyle Lohse |
P |
3.55 |
234 |
Rafael Soriano |
P |
3.54 |
235 |
Jose Fernandez |
P |
3.43 |
236 |
Wei-Yin Chen |
P |
3.31 |
237 |
Drew Hutchison |
P |
3.27 |
238 |
Derek Holland |
P |
3.25 |
239 |
Darren O'Day |
P |
3.14 |
240 |
Trevor Plouffe |
3B |
3.1 |
241 |
Chris Tillman |
P |
3.1 |
242 |
John Jaso |
C, DH |
3.07 |
243 |
Nick Markakis |
OF |
2.86 |
244 |
Elvis Andrus |
SS |
2.77 |
245 |
Kevin Gausman |
P |
2.75 |
246 |
Tyler Clippard |
P |
2.7 |
247 |
Jason Hammel |
P |
2.68 |
248 |
Matt Garza |
P |
2.62 |
249 |
Coco Crisp |
OF |
2.52 |
250 |
Dillon Gee |
P |
2.49 |
251 |
Neftali Feliz |
P |
2.43 |
252 |
Chris Archer |
P |
2.31 |
253 |
Josh Collmenter |
P |
2.24 |
254 |
Ben Revere |
OF |
2.18 |
255 |
Pat Neshek |
P |
2.16 |
256 |
David Peralta |
OF |
2.14 |
257 |
Denard Span |
OF |
1.82 |
258 |
Santiago Casilla |
P |
1.76 |
259 |
Nick Castellanos |
3B |
1.71 |
260 |
Adam Eaton |
OF |
1.64 |
261 |
Wilson Ramos |
C |
1.6 |
262 |
Wil Myers |
OF |
1.6 |
263 |
Jenrry Mejia |
P |
1.5 |
264 |
Kyle Hendricks |
P |
1.45 |
265 |
Steven Souza |
OF |
1.42 |
266 |
Vance Worley |
P |
1.32 |
267 |
Dalton Pompey |
OF |
1.17 |
268 |
Joakim Soria |
P |
1.15 |
269 |
Nathan Eovaldi |
P |
1.1 |
270 |
Andrew Heaney |
P |
1.04 |
271 |
Joe Smith |
P |
0.81 |
272 |
Lorenzo Cain |
OF |
0.68 |
273 |
Marco Estrada |
P |
0.46 |
274 |
Francisco Liriano |
P |
0.39 |
275 |
Dee Gordon |
2B |
0.3 |
276 |
Desmond Jennings |
OF |
0.2 |
277 |
Ervin Santana |
P |
0.08 |
278 |
Kevin Quackenbush |
P |
0.06 |
279 |
Mark Teixeira |
1B |
0 |
280 |
Mike Minor |
P |
0 |
281 |
Michael Morse |
1B, OF |
-0.01 |
282 |
James Loney |
1B |
-0.07 |
284 |
Kennys Vargas |
DH |
-0.08 |
283 |
Justin Smoak |
1B |
-0.08 |
285 |
Rajai Davis |
OF |
-0.14 |
286 |
Angel Pagan |
OF |
-0.19 |
287 |
Junichi Tazawa |
P |
-0.23 |
288 |
Henderson Alvarez |
P |
-0.41 |
289 |
R.A. Dickey |
P |
-0.44 |
290 |
Clay Buchholz |
P |
-0.46 |
291 |
Brandon Phillips |
2B |
-0.51 |
292 |
Asdrubal Cabrera |
SS, 2B |
-0.55 |
293 |
Danny Santana |
SS, OF |
-0.76 |
294 |
Shelby Miller |
P |
-0.79 |
295 |
LaTroy Hawkins |
P |
-0.87 |
296 |
Jed Lowrie |
SS |
-1.02 |
297 |
Wade Miley |
P |
-1.05 |
298 |
T.J. House |
P |
-1.09 |
299 |
Danny Farquhar |
P |
-1.12 |
300 |
Brett Cecil |
P |
-1.15 |