The Keeper Corner #84-70

I continue with the review of my pre2015 rankings I used for a 6x6 league.  Once you get into the sub 100 ranks there are no longer value picks, but you can waste value on players whom whose primarily production can be supplemented by cheaper players.  With that said, I can't think of the last speed player or closer I invested in the top 100 picks.  So while there are players who were projected to be worth this much, I personally wouldn't have drafted them. Side note, after I do these 15 players, I am going to post #300-70 players, as one reader said it was hard to keep up with who I had been ranking. Now, lets continue with the list.

#84 Jayson Werth, OF, WSH

$15.69, 69 R, 15 HR, 62 RBI, 8 SB, .292 AVG, .850 OPS

Werth only played 88 games because of a wrist injury.  I expect something similar to 2014 if he can remain healthy during the 2016 season (80R, 15 HR, 80 RBI, 10 SB, .290).  He's been a very solid hitter his whole career.  I expect more reliable production next season.

#83 Todd Frazier, 3B/1B, CIN

$15.81, 79 R, 24 HR, 79 RBI, 12 SB, .260 AVG, .766 OPS

Frazier blasted 35 homers last season, but hung a lot of his owners out to dry in the second half, including the fantasy playoffs.  25 of those bombs were in the first half,  in the second half his OPS dropped from .922 to .664, his strikeout rate jumped from 17% to 23%, and he just didn't hit the ball as hard as he did in the first half.  Next year I think he'll hit fewer homers, but also experience better batted ball luck, and have a better average.  He had the 20^th best hard hit rate last year, which should be worth more than a .255 average.

#82 David Robertson, RP, CWS

$15.88, 100 K, 4 W, 41 SV, 2.375 ERA, 1.111 WHIP, 4.00 K/BB

Robertson posted another great season, and had an undeservedly high ERA as the huge gap between his ERA and FIP and xFIP would indicate.  The terrible White Sox defense isn't going anywhere, but with so many strikeouts and so few walks, I'd expect him to be back under 3 with his ERA next season, and a WHIP approaching 1.  He's a great reliever, but I wouldn't draft him at #82.  He's valuable, but don't burn picks on guys like this unless they fall (Don't pay for saves)

#81 James Shields, SP, SD

$16.64, 190 K, 14 W, 3.509 ERA, 1.202 WHIP, 3.80 K/BB

Shields went to San Diego, and saw an unusual jump in his three true outcomes.  His strikeouts, walks, and home runs all increased last season.  13 wins and 216 strikeouts are great, however owners definitely expected more than a 3.91 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP.  He was hit harder than he has been hit in the past, and this may be the first sign of him having diminished velocity.  His pitches were all roughly 1 mph slower last season than the year prior, and at 33 it's a real possibility he's in serious decline.  Next year at 34 years old he will be a risky player to draft, even while playing in Petco Park.

#80 Justin Morneau, 1B, COL

$16.92, 61 R, 19 HR, 76 RBI, 0 SB, .295 AVG, .825 OPS

Morneau dealt with neck and more concussion issues last year.  He only played 49 games and fell short of his projections.  Next year at 35 years old I believe he'll be able to find more work if he's interested in continuing his career, but a move away from Colorado won't help his value, and the Rockies have already made it clear they are looking at other options.

#79 Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, LAD

$16.98, 169 K, 13 W, 3.135 ERA, 1.174 WHIP, 4.297 K/BB

Ryu missed the 2015 season with a shoulder injury.  These are risky to deal with, and you're going to have to wait and see what Ryu looks like next season in spring training.

#78 Jeff Samardzija, SP, CWS

$17.07, 206 K, 14 W, 3.516 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 3.492 K/BB

If it could have gone wrong, it went wrong for Shark last season.  He struck out less, walked more, and gave up more homers.  His babip went up, his strand rate dropped, and his ground ball percentage plummeted.  I can't find anything terribly unusual with his pitch f/x information, but his I'll devote more time to this later in the offseason.  Samardzija is a free agent, so a move away from US Cellular, will help, and a pitching coach who can turn him back into a ground ball pitcher would be even better.  In 2015 he'll be 31 and if you're drafting him, you're hoping for a return to his old batted ball profile, and a revival of his strikeout rate.

#77 Adam LaRoche, 1B, CWS

$17.25, 70 R, 25 HR, 79 RBI, 3 SB, .263 AVG, .834 OPS

LaRoche just looked old last year.  Everything about him made him seem like he was behind the game.  He was chasing pitches he didn't previously chase, was swinging more, and was missing more.  To me this indicates he was gearing up to swing earlier, and giving himself less room for error by guessing earlier in the balls flight.  He has another year on his deal with the White Sox, but the Sox seemed ready to let other hitters get playing time in the DH slot instead of devoting it fully to LaRoche.

#76 Jose Reyes, SS, TOR

$17.33, 90 R, 11 HR, 51 RBI, 30 SB, .287 AVG, .748 OPS

Reyes missed time with rib and Achilles injuries last season.  Last year he posted his worst season since the Mets decided he should be moved to second for Kaz Matsui.  An interesting note is that he actually performed considerably worse once he got to the Rockies.  Perhaps he's getting older, or maybe he's unhappy being in Colorado watching his old teammates get into the playoffs without him.  Either way, looking at Reyes right now is a risky proposition.  Part of me wants to say, anyone going to Colorado with a dip in production is a great buy low.  But so much of his value is tied into his batting average and speed.  Last year both of those went in the toilet, but knowing what I know about the Coors effect, I'm likely going to be buying into Reyes off a down year in 2016.

#75 Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA

$17.82, 73 R, 25 HR, 84 RBI, 9 SB, .265 AVG, .783 OPS

Seager almost matched his projections perfectly.  He's one of the few top 100 players who I can't imagine being a top 50 player, but would always rank in the top 100.  In his 5 seasons in the MLB he's hit between .258 and .268, that's consistency.  His home runs are on a 5 year upward trend, and with the Mariner offense improving, his R and RBI production are slowly creeping up.  He sprays the ball from line to line, his line drive rate keeps improving, and his hard hit rate is good.  I won't be ranking him as a super star, but knowing what you are going to get has sneaky value.

#74 Ian Kinsler, 2B, DET

$17.88, 94 R, 16 HR, 77 RBI, 14 SB, .276 AVG, .750 OPS

Kinsler significantly lowered his pull rate resulting in more balls sprayed around the field, and hit the highest percentage of line drives ever.  This helped his babip jump after being a dead pull hitter previously in his career.  He is no longer a speed player, but if he's going to keep hitting liners all over the field, he can definitely replicate his value from 2015 without pouring on homers or steals.  Also, the return of Miguel Cabrera for a full year, and the Tigers looking to spend could improve the lineup and help Kinsler improve his R or RBI depending on his lineup position.

#73 Nelson Cruz, OF, SEA

$17.94, 74 R, 27 HR, 87 RBI, 5 SB, .262 AVG, .783 OPS

Did I say 27 homers, I meant 44 HR with 90R and 93 RBI, along with a .300 batting average.  His .350 babip was sky high, and considering 44 of his hits didn't land in play, its not likely he is so fortunate next season with his batting average.  Next year, you'll be paying for his 2015, but you'll be praying you don't get his games played from 2013, 2011, 2010, or 2009.  A .280 season with 30+ homers is what you'll be hoping for, along with a better offensive season from the other Mariners surrounding him.

#72 Evan Gattis, C, HOU

$18.18, 63R, 31 HR, 84 RBI, 0 SB, .264 AVG, .821 OPS

Gattis made an interesting decision last year: he hit far more grounders, more line drives, and he sprayed balls around the field more than ever before.  For most people this would result in a batting average improvement, but not for the lumbering slugger, this only gave him a .264 babip, and consequentially a .246 batting average.  Despite popular belief, Gattis actually had a below average strikeout rate.  If Gattis was to return to his old slightly higher fly ball rate, and stick with a sub 20% strikeout rate, we could see a big power spike from him in 2016.

#71 Adam Wainwright, SP, STL

$18.23, 177 K, 14 W, 3.262 ERA, 1.144 WHIP, 4.023 K/BB

Wainwright tore his Achilles tendon and missed almost all of 2015.  While this hurt all of his 2015 owners, if you are looking to keep him, the questions about how much his elbow can take after his last Tommy John surgery can be put to rest with almost a full year of healthy rest.  I do not think he'll have a resurgence in his strikeout rate, which previously made him an ace, as its been in constant decline since he tore his UCL in 2011.

#70 Chris Davis, 1B/3B, BAL

$18.35, 75R, 33 HR, 87 RBI, 3 SB, .241 AVG, .826 OPS

Crush Davis had an absolutely monster contract year after the nuclear disaster that he had in 2014.  His power will play anywhere, but a move away from Baltimore would hurt his value. I enjoyed owning Davis, and saw him produce all year long, I think 2014 can be put in the back of your mind, as he'll be a slugger anywhere he goes.

As requested by a reader here are the ranks up to #70.  If you have any questions about them please feel free to comment below or reach out to me on twitter at @jackcecil1

Rank	Name	Position	Value
70	Chris Davis	1B, 3B	18.35
71	Adam Wainwright	P	18.23
72	Evan Gattis	C	18.18
73	Nelson Cruz	OF, DH	17.94
74	Ian Kinsler	2B	17.88
75	Kyle Seager	3B	17.82
76	Jose Reyes	SS	17.33
77	Adam LaRoche	1B	17.25
78	Jeff Samardzija	P	17.07
79	Hyun-Jin Ryu	P	16.98
80	Justin Morneau	1B	16.92
81	James Shields	P	16.64
82	David Robertson	P	15.88
83	Todd Frazier	3B, 1B	15.81
84	Jayson Werth	OF	15.69
85	Carlos Carrasco	P	15.68
86	Devin Mesoraco	C	15.5
87	J.D. Martinez	OF	15.47
88	Phil Hughes	P	15.37
89	Melky Cabrera	OF	15.23
90	Matt Harvey	P	15.06
91	Kenley Jansen	P	15
92	Starlin Castro	SS	14.96
93	Glen Perkins	P	14.91
94	Hunter Pence	OF	14.85
95	Jorge Soler	OF	14.76
96	Pedro Alvarez	3B	14.65
97	Dellin Betances	P	14.63
98	Julio Teheran	P	14.5
99	Brandon Moss	1B, OF	14.36
100	Mark Trumbo	1B, OF	14.23
101	Matt Carpenter	3B	14.19
102	Manny Machado	3B	14.17
103	Jason Heyward	OF	14.07
104	Hisashi Iwakuma	P	13.98
105	Huston Street	P	13.64
106	Rusney Castillo	OF	13.51
107	Jacob deGrom	P	13.46
108	Dustin Pedroia	2B	13.22
109	Neil Walker	2B	13.08
110	Alex Cobb	P	13.03
111	Andrew Miller	P	12.97
112	Christian Yelich	OF	12.96
113	Sean Doolittle	P	12.95
114	Jonathan Papelbon	P	12.64
115	Jay Bruce	OF	12.6
116	Alex Gordon	OF	12.48
117	Marcell Ozuna	OF	12.23
118	Brian Dozier	2B	11.99
119	Homer Bailey	P	11.98
120	Lucas Duda	1B	11.93
121	Yadier Molina	C	11.84
122	Leonys Martin	OF	11.84
123	Matt Adams	1B	11.78
124	Cody Allen	P	11.7
125	Steve Cishek	P	11.5
126	Joaquin Benoit	P	11.45
127	Alex Wood	P	11.28
128	Jason Kipnis	2B	11.16
129	Brandon McCarthy	P	11.08
130	Trevor Rosenthal	P	10.92
131	Adam Lind	1B, DH	10.91
132	Kolten Wong	2B	10.81
133	Ben Zobrist	2B, SS, OF	10.79
134	Gerrit Cole	P	10.75
135	Chase Utley	2B	10.72
136	David Wright	3B	10.63
137	Charlie Blackmon	OF	10.55
138	Aramis Ramirez	3B	10.51
139	Anibal Sanchez	P	10.49
140	Ken Giles	P	10.26
141	Martin Prado	3B, 2B	10.14
142	Drew Smyly	P	10.14
143	Steve Pearce	1B, OF	10.05
144	Fernando Rodney	P	10
145	Jake Arrieta	P	9.99
146	Yan Gomes	C	9.8
147	Drew Storen	P	9.75
148	Gio Gonzalez	P	9.73
149	Daniel Murphy	2B	9.46
150	Michael Cuddyer	OF	9.39
151	Doug Fister	P	9.37
152	Michael Wacha	P	9.12
153	Joe Mauer	1B	9.04
154	Brett Gardner	OF	9.04
155	Hector Rondon	P	8.87
157	Scooter Gennett	2B	8.62
156	Alexei Ramirez	SS	8.62
158	Tyson Ross	P	8.6
159	Billy Butler	DH, 1B	8.54
160	Mat Latos	P	8.48
161	Howie Kendrick	2B	8.43
162	Eric Hosmer	1B	8.41
163	Garrett Richards	P	8.09
164	Brandon Belt	1B	8.07
165	Josh Harrison	OF, 3B	8.06
166	Jake McGee	P	8
167	Andrew Cashner	P	7.9
168	A.J. Pollock	OF	7.88
169	John Lackey	P	7.86
170	Marlon Byrd	OF	7.7
171	Jedd Gyorko	2B	7.55
172	Francisco Rodriguez	P	7.47
173	Yusmeiro Petit	P	7.45
174	Alex Rios	OF	7.39
175	Oswaldo Arcia	OF	7.32
176	Khris Davis	OF	7.19
177	Salvador Perez	C	7.15
178	Mike Fiers	P	7.06
179	Billy Hamilton	OF	6.84
180	Brian McCann	C	6.76
181	Addison Reed	P	6.6
183	Bartolo Colon	P	6.41
182	Lance Lynn	P	6.41
184	Scott Kazmir	P	6.37
185	Shin-Soo Choo	OF, DH	6.21
186	Carl Crawford	OF	6.04
187	Chase Headley	3B	5.98
188	Jose Quintana	P	5.95
189	Tony Watson	P	5.82
190	Justin Verlander	P	5.69
191	Brad Boxberger	P	5.64
192	Dan Haren	P	5.59
193	Aaron Hill	2B	5.44
194	Rick Porcello	P	5.35
195	Luke Gregerson	P	5.29
196	Michael Pineda	P	5.29
197	Rougned Odor	2B	5.2
198	Michael Saunders	OF	5.2
199	Lonnie Chisenhall	3B	5.19
200	Mike Leake	P	5.18
201	Ian Kennedy	P	5.12
202	Jonathon Niese	P	5.1
203	Wade Davis	P	5.07
204	Yasmany Tomas	OF	5.06
205	Wilin Rosario	C	5.05
206	Jhonny Peralta	SS	5
207	Torii Hunter	OF	4.71
208	Mike Napoli	1B	4.71
209	Matt Shoemaker	P	4.69
210	Jimmy Rollins	SS	4.66
211	Zach Britton	P	4.63
212	Russell Martin	C	4.44
213	Josh Reddick	OF	4.38
214	Collin McHugh	P	4.37
215	Jered Weaver	P	4.35
216	Brandon Finnegan	P	4.27
217	Jake Peavy	P	4.25
218	Matt Cain	P	4.25
219	Sergio Romo	P	4.25
220	Gregory Polanco	OF	4.2
221	Matt Wieters	C	4.12
222	CC Sabathia	P	4.11
223	Carlos Beltran	OF, DH	3.9
224	Erick Aybar	SS	3.89
225	Jake Odorizzi	P	3.79
227	Joe Nathan	P	3.74
226	Sonny Gray	P	3.74
228	Bobby Parnell	P	3.71
229	Dallas Keuchel	P	3.68
230	Danny Salazar	P	3.66
232	Curtis Granderson	OF	3.65
231	Joc Pederson	OF	3.65
233	Kyle Lohse	P	3.55
234	Rafael Soriano	P	3.54
235	Jose Fernandez	P	3.43
236	Wei-Yin Chen	P	3.31
237	Drew Hutchison	P	3.27
238	Derek Holland	P	3.25
239	Darren O'Day	P	3.14
240	Trevor Plouffe	3B	3.1
241	Chris Tillman	P	3.1
242	John Jaso	C, DH	3.07
243	Nick Markakis	OF	2.86
244	Elvis Andrus	SS	2.77
245	Kevin Gausman	P	2.75
246	Tyler Clippard	P	2.7
247	Jason Hammel	P	2.68
248	Matt Garza	P	2.62
249	Coco Crisp	OF	2.52
250	Dillon Gee	P	2.49
251	Neftali Feliz	P	2.43
252	Chris Archer	P	2.31
253	Josh Collmenter	P	2.24
254	Ben Revere	OF	2.18
255	Pat Neshek	P	2.16
256	David Peralta	OF	2.14
257	Denard Span	OF	1.82
258	Santiago Casilla	P	1.76
259	Nick Castellanos	3B	1.71
260	Adam Eaton	OF	1.64
261	Wilson Ramos	C	1.6
262	Wil Myers	OF	1.6
263	Jenrry Mejia	P	1.5
264	Kyle Hendricks	P	1.45
265	Steven Souza	OF	1.42
266	Vance Worley	P	1.32
267	Dalton Pompey	OF	1.17
268	Joakim Soria	P	1.15
269	Nathan Eovaldi	P	1.1
270	Andrew Heaney	P	1.04
271	Joe Smith	P	0.81
272	Lorenzo Cain	OF	0.68
273	Marco Estrada	P	0.46
274	Francisco Liriano	P	0.39
275	Dee Gordon	2B	0.3
276	Desmond Jennings	OF	0.2
277	Ervin Santana	P	0.08
278	Kevin Quackenbush	P	0.06
279	Mark Teixeira	1B	0
280	Mike Minor	P	0
281	Michael Morse	1B, OF	-0.01
282	James Loney	1B	-0.07
284	Kennys Vargas	DH	-0.08
283	Justin Smoak	1B	-0.08
285	Rajai Davis	OF	-0.14
286	Angel Pagan	OF	-0.19
287	Junichi Tazawa	P	-0.23
288	Henderson Alvarez	P	-0.41
289	R.A. Dickey	P	-0.44
290	Clay Buchholz	P	-0.46
291	Brandon Phillips	2B	-0.51
292	Asdrubal Cabrera	SS, 2B	-0.55
293	Danny Santana	SS, OF	-0.76
294	Shelby Miller	P	-0.79
295	LaTroy Hawkins	P	-0.87
296	Jed Lowrie	SS	-1.02
297	Wade Miley	P	-1.05
298	T.J. House	P	-1.09
299	Danny Farquhar	P	-1.12
300	Brett Cecil	P	-1.15