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The Keeper Corner #84-70

The sluggers of 2015 are ranked.

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

I continue with the review of my pre2015 rankings I used for a 6x6 league.  Once you get into the sub 100 ranks there are no longer value picks, but you can waste value on players whom whose primarily production can be supplemented by cheaper players.  With that said, I can't think of the last speed player or closer I invested in the top 100 picks.  So while there are players who were projected to be worth this much, I personally wouldn't have drafted them. Side note, after I do these 15 players, I am going to post #300-70 players, as one reader said it was hard to keep up with who I had been ranking. Now, lets continue with the list.

#84 Jayson Werth, OF, WSH

$15.69, 69 R, 15 HR, 62 RBI, 8 SB, .292 AVG, .850 OPS

Werth only played 88 games because of a wrist injury.  I expect something similar to 2014 if he can remain healthy during the 2016 season (80R, 15 HR, 80 RBI, 10 SB, .290).  He's been a very solid hitter his whole career.  I expect more reliable production next season.

#83 Todd Frazier, 3B/1B, CIN

$15.81, 79 R, 24 HR, 79 RBI, 12 SB, .260 AVG, .766 OPS

Frazier blasted 35 homers last season, but hung a lot of his owners out to dry in the second half, including the fantasy playoffs.  25 of those bombs were in the first half,  in the second half his OPS dropped from .922 to .664, his strikeout rate jumped from 17% to 23%, and he just didn't hit the ball as hard as he did in the first half.  Next year I think he'll hit fewer homers, but also experience better batted ball luck, and have a better average.  He had the 20th best hard hit rate last year, which should be worth more than a .255 average.

#82 David Robertson, RP, CWS

$15.88, 100 K, 4 W, 41 SV, 2.375 ERA, 1.111 WHIP, 4.00 K/BB

Robertson posted another great season, and had an undeservedly high ERA as the huge gap between his ERA and FIP and xFIP would indicate.  The terrible White Sox defense isn't going anywhere, but with so many strikeouts and so few walks, I'd expect him to be back under 3 with his ERA next season, and a WHIP approaching 1.  He's a great reliever, but I wouldn't draft him at #82.  He's valuable, but don't burn picks on guys like this unless they fall (Don't pay for saves)

#81 James Shields, SP, SD

$16.64, 190 K, 14 W, 3.509 ERA, 1.202 WHIP, 3.80 K/BB

Shields went to San Diego, and saw an unusual jump in his three true outcomes.  His strikeouts, walks, and home runs all increased last season.  13 wins and 216 strikeouts are great, however owners definitely expected more than a 3.91 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP.  He was hit harder than he has been hit in the past, and this may be the first sign of him having diminished velocity.  His pitches were all roughly 1 mph slower last season than the year prior, and at 33 it's a real possibility he's in serious decline.  Next year at 34 years old he will be a risky player to draft, even while playing in Petco Park.

#80 Justin Morneau, 1B, COL

$16.92, 61 R, 19 HR, 76 RBI, 0 SB, .295 AVG, .825 OPS

Morneau dealt with neck and more concussion issues last year.  He only played 49 games and fell short of his projections.  Next year at 35 years old I believe he'll be able to find more work if he's interested in continuing his career, but a move away from Colorado won't help his value, and the Rockies have already made it clear they are looking at other options.

#79 Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, LAD

$16.98, 169 K, 13 W, 3.135 ERA, 1.174 WHIP, 4.297 K/BB

Ryu missed the 2015 season with a shoulder injury.  These are risky to deal with, and you're going to have to wait and see what Ryu looks like next season in spring training.

#78 Jeff Samardzija, SP, CWS

$17.07, 206 K, 14 W, 3.516 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 3.492 K/BB

If it could have gone wrong, it went wrong for Shark last season.  He struck out less, walked more, and gave up more homers.  His babip went up, his strand rate dropped, and his ground ball percentage plummeted.  I can't find anything terribly unusual with his pitch f/x information, but his I'll devote more time to this later in the offseason.  Samardzija is a free agent, so a move away from US Cellular, will help, and a pitching coach who can turn him back into a ground ball pitcher would be even better.  In 2015 he'll be 31 and if you're drafting him, you're hoping for a return to his old batted ball profile, and a revival of his strikeout rate.

#77 Adam LaRoche, 1B, CWS

$17.25, 70 R, 25 HR, 79 RBI, 3 SB, .263 AVG, .834 OPS

LaRoche just looked old last year.  Everything about him made him seem like he was behind the game.  He was chasing pitches he didn't previously chase, was swinging more, and was missing more.  To me this indicates he was gearing up to swing earlier, and giving himself less room for error by guessing earlier in the balls flight.  He has another year on his deal with the White Sox, but the Sox seemed ready to let other hitters get playing time in the DH slot instead of devoting it fully to LaRoche.

#76 Jose Reyes, SS, TOR

$17.33, 90 R, 11 HR, 51 RBI, 30 SB, .287 AVG, .748 OPS

Reyes missed time with rib and Achilles injuries last season.  Last year he posted his worst season since the Mets decided he should be moved to second for Kaz Matsui.  An interesting note is that he actually performed considerably worse once he got to the Rockies.  Perhaps he's getting older, or maybe he's unhappy being in Colorado watching his old teammates get into the playoffs without him.  Either way, looking at Reyes right now is a risky proposition.  Part of me wants to say, anyone going to Colorado with a dip in production is a great buy low.  But so much of his value is tied into his batting average and speed.  Last year both of those went in the toilet, but knowing what I know about the Coors effect, I'm likely going to be buying into Reyes off a down year in 2016.

#75 Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA

$17.82, 73 R, 25 HR, 84 RBI, 9 SB, .265 AVG, .783 OPS

Seager almost matched his projections perfectly.  He's one of the few top 100 players who I can't imagine being a top 50 player, but would always rank in the top 100.  In his 5 seasons in the MLB he's hit between .258 and .268, that's consistency.  His home runs are on a 5 year upward trend, and with the Mariner offense improving, his R and RBI production are slowly creeping up.  He sprays the ball from line to line, his line drive rate keeps improving, and his hard hit rate is good.  I won't be ranking him as a super star, but knowing what you are going to get has sneaky value.

#74 Ian Kinsler, 2B, DET

$17.88, 94 R, 16 HR, 77 RBI, 14 SB, .276 AVG, .750 OPS

Kinsler significantly lowered his pull rate resulting in more balls sprayed around the field, and hit the highest percentage of line drives ever.  This helped his babip jump after being a dead pull hitter previously in his career.  He is no longer a speed player, but if he's going to keep hitting liners all over the field, he can definitely replicate his value from 2015 without pouring on homers or steals.  Also, the return of Miguel Cabrera for a full year, and the Tigers looking to spend could improve the lineup and help Kinsler improve his R or RBI depending on his lineup position.

#73 Nelson Cruz, OF, SEA

$17.94, 74 R, 27 HR, 87 RBI, 5 SB, .262 AVG, .783 OPS

Did I say 27 homers, I meant 44 HR with 90R and 93 RBI, along with a .300 batting average.  His .350 babip was sky high, and considering 44 of his hits didn't land in play, its not likely he is so fortunate next season with his batting average.  Next year, you'll be paying for his 2015, but you'll be praying you don't get his games played from 2013, 2011, 2010, or 2009.  A .280 season with 30+ homers is what you'll be hoping for, along with a better offensive season from the other Mariners surrounding him.

#72 Evan Gattis, C, HOU

$18.18, 63R, 31 HR, 84 RBI, 0 SB, .264 AVG, .821 OPS

Gattis made an interesting decision last year: he hit far more grounders, more line drives, and he sprayed balls around the field more than ever before.  For most people this would result in a batting average improvement, but not for the lumbering slugger, this only gave him a .264 babip, and consequentially a .246 batting average.  Despite popular belief, Gattis actually had a below average strikeout rate.  If Gattis was to return to his old slightly higher fly ball rate, and stick with a sub 20% strikeout rate, we could see a big power spike from him in 2016.

#71 Adam Wainwright, SP, STL

$18.23, 177 K, 14 W, 3.262 ERA, 1.144 WHIP, 4.023 K/BB

Wainwright tore his Achilles tendon and missed almost all of 2015.  While this hurt all of his 2015 owners, if you are looking to keep him, the questions about how much his elbow can take after his last Tommy John surgery can be put to rest with almost a full year of healthy rest.  I do not think he'll have a resurgence in his strikeout rate, which previously made him an ace, as its been in constant decline since he tore his UCL in 2011.

#70 Chris Davis, 1B/3B, BAL

$18.35, 75R, 33 HR, 87 RBI, 3 SB, .241 AVG, .826 OPS

Crush Davis had an absolutely monster contract year after the nuclear disaster that he had in 2014.  His power will play anywhere, but a move away from Baltimore would hurt his value. I enjoyed owning Davis, and saw him produce all year long, I think 2014 can be put in the back of your mind, as he'll be a slugger anywhere he goes.

As requested by a reader here are the ranks up to #70.  If you have any questions about them please feel free to comment below or reach out to me on twitter at @jackcecil1

Rank

Name

Position

Value

70

Chris Davis

1B, 3B

18.35

71

Adam Wainwright

P

18.23

72

Evan Gattis

C

18.18

73

Nelson Cruz

OF, DH

17.94

74

Ian Kinsler

2B

17.88

75

Kyle Seager

3B

17.82

76

Jose Reyes

SS

17.33

77

Adam LaRoche

1B

17.25

78

Jeff Samardzija

P

17.07

79

Hyun-Jin Ryu

P

16.98

80

Justin Morneau

1B

16.92

81

James Shields

P

16.64

82

David Robertson

P

15.88

83

Todd Frazier

3B, 1B

15.81

84

Jayson Werth

OF

15.69

85

Carlos Carrasco

P

15.68

86

Devin Mesoraco

C

15.5

87

J.D. Martinez

OF

15.47

88

Phil Hughes

P

15.37

89

Melky Cabrera

OF

15.23

90

Matt Harvey

P

15.06

91

Kenley Jansen

P

15

92

Starlin Castro

SS

14.96

93

Glen Perkins

P

14.91

94

Hunter Pence

OF

14.85

95

Jorge Soler

OF

14.76

96

Pedro Alvarez

3B

14.65

97

Dellin Betances

P

14.63

98

Julio Teheran

P

14.5

99

Brandon Moss

1B, OF

14.36

100

Mark Trumbo

1B, OF

14.23

101

Matt Carpenter

3B

14.19

102

Manny Machado

3B

14.17

103

Jason Heyward

OF

14.07

104

Hisashi Iwakuma

P

13.98

105

Huston Street

P

13.64

106

Rusney Castillo

OF

13.51

107

Jacob deGrom

P

13.46

108

Dustin Pedroia

2B

13.22

109

Neil Walker

2B

13.08

110

Alex Cobb

P

13.03

111

Andrew Miller

P

12.97

112

Christian Yelich

OF

12.96

113

Sean Doolittle

P

12.95

114

Jonathan Papelbon

P

12.64

115

Jay Bruce

OF

12.6

116

Alex Gordon

OF

12.48

117

Marcell Ozuna

OF

12.23

118

Brian Dozier

2B

11.99

119

Homer Bailey

P

11.98

120

Lucas Duda

1B

11.93

121

Yadier Molina

C

11.84

122

Leonys Martin

OF

11.84

123

Matt Adams

1B

11.78

124

Cody Allen

P

11.7

125

Steve Cishek

P

11.5

126

Joaquin Benoit

P

11.45

127

Alex Wood

P

11.28

128

Jason Kipnis

2B

11.16

129

Brandon McCarthy

P

11.08

130

Trevor Rosenthal

P

10.92

131

Adam Lind

1B, DH

10.91

132

Kolten Wong

2B

10.81

133

Ben Zobrist

2B, SS, OF

10.79

134

Gerrit Cole

P

10.75

135

Chase Utley

2B

10.72

136

David Wright

3B

10.63

137

Charlie Blackmon

OF

10.55

138

Aramis Ramirez

3B

10.51

139

Anibal Sanchez

P

10.49

140

Ken Giles

P

10.26

141

Martin Prado

3B, 2B

10.14

142

Drew Smyly

P

10.14

143

Steve Pearce

1B, OF

10.05

144

Fernando Rodney

P

10

145

Jake Arrieta

P

9.99

146

Yan Gomes

C

9.8

147

Drew Storen

P

9.75

148

Gio Gonzalez

P

9.73

149

Daniel Murphy

2B

9.46

150

Michael Cuddyer

OF

9.39

151

Doug Fister

P

9.37

152

Michael Wacha

P

9.12

153

Joe Mauer

1B

9.04

154

Brett Gardner

OF

9.04

155

Hector Rondon

P

8.87

157

Scooter Gennett

2B

8.62

156

Alexei Ramirez

SS

8.62

158

Tyson Ross

P

8.6

159

Billy Butler

DH, 1B

8.54

160

Mat Latos

P

8.48

161

Howie Kendrick

2B

8.43

162

Eric Hosmer

1B

8.41

163

Garrett Richards

P

8.09

164

Brandon Belt

1B

8.07

165

Josh Harrison

OF, 3B

8.06

166

Jake McGee

P

8

167

Andrew Cashner

P

7.9

168

A.J. Pollock

OF

7.88

169

John Lackey

P

7.86

170

Marlon Byrd

OF

7.7

171

Jedd Gyorko

2B

7.55

172

Francisco Rodriguez

P

7.47

173

Yusmeiro Petit

P

7.45

174

Alex Rios

OF

7.39

175

Oswaldo Arcia

OF

7.32

176

Khris Davis

OF

7.19

177

Salvador Perez

C

7.15

178

Mike Fiers

P

7.06

179

Billy Hamilton

OF

6.84

180

Brian McCann

C

6.76

181

Addison Reed

P

6.6

183

Bartolo Colon

P

6.41

182

Lance Lynn

P

6.41

184

Scott Kazmir

P

6.37

185

Shin-Soo Choo

OF, DH

6.21

186

Carl Crawford

OF

6.04

187

Chase Headley

3B

5.98

188

Jose Quintana

P

5.95

189

Tony Watson

P

5.82

190

Justin Verlander

P

5.69

191

Brad Boxberger

P

5.64

192

Dan Haren

P

5.59

193

Aaron Hill

2B

5.44

194

Rick Porcello

P

5.35

195

Luke Gregerson

P

5.29

196

Michael Pineda

P

5.29

197

Rougned Odor

2B

5.2

198

Michael Saunders

OF

5.2

199

Lonnie Chisenhall

3B

5.19

200

Mike Leake

P

5.18

201

Ian Kennedy

P

5.12

202

Jonathon Niese

P

5.1

203

Wade Davis

P

5.07

204

Yasmany Tomas

OF

5.06

205

Wilin Rosario

C

5.05

206

Jhonny Peralta

SS

5

207

Torii Hunter

OF

4.71

208

Mike Napoli

1B

4.71

209

Matt Shoemaker

P

4.69

210

Jimmy Rollins

SS

4.66

211

Zach Britton

P

4.63

212

Russell Martin

C

4.44

213

Josh Reddick

OF

4.38

214

Collin McHugh

P

4.37

215

Jered Weaver

P

4.35

216

Brandon Finnegan

P

4.27

217

Jake Peavy

P

4.25

218

Matt Cain

P

4.25

219

Sergio Romo

P

4.25

220

Gregory Polanco

OF

4.2

221

Matt Wieters

C

4.12

222

CC Sabathia

P

4.11

223

Carlos Beltran

OF, DH

3.9

224

Erick Aybar

SS

3.89

225

Jake Odorizzi

P

3.79

227

Joe Nathan

P

3.74

226

Sonny Gray

P

3.74

228

Bobby Parnell

P

3.71

229

Dallas Keuchel

P

3.68

230

Danny Salazar

P

3.66

232

Curtis Granderson

OF

3.65

231

Joc Pederson

OF

3.65

233

Kyle Lohse

P

3.55

234

Rafael Soriano

P

3.54

235

Jose Fernandez

P

3.43

236

Wei-Yin Chen

P

3.31

237

Drew Hutchison

P

3.27

238

Derek Holland

P

3.25

239

Darren O'Day

P

3.14

240

Trevor Plouffe

3B

3.1

241

Chris Tillman

P

3.1

242

John Jaso

C, DH

3.07

243

Nick Markakis

OF

2.86

244

Elvis Andrus

SS

2.77

245

Kevin Gausman

P

2.75

246

Tyler Clippard

P

2.7

247

Jason Hammel

P

2.68

248

Matt Garza

P

2.62

249

Coco Crisp

OF

2.52

250

Dillon Gee

P

2.49

251

Neftali Feliz

P

2.43

252

Chris Archer

P

2.31

253

Josh Collmenter

P

2.24

254

Ben Revere

OF

2.18

255

Pat Neshek

P

2.16

256

David Peralta

OF

2.14

257

Denard Span

OF

1.82

258

Santiago Casilla

P

1.76

259

Nick Castellanos

3B

1.71

260

Adam Eaton

OF

1.64

261

Wilson Ramos

C

1.6

262

Wil Myers

OF

1.6

263

Jenrry Mejia

P

1.5

264

Kyle Hendricks

P

1.45

265

Steven Souza

OF

1.42

266

Vance Worley

P

1.32

267

Dalton Pompey

OF

1.17

268

Joakim Soria

P

1.15

269

Nathan Eovaldi

P

1.1

270

Andrew Heaney

P

1.04

271

Joe Smith

P

0.81

272

Lorenzo Cain

OF

0.68

273

Marco Estrada

P

0.46

274

Francisco Liriano

P

0.39

275

Dee Gordon

2B

0.3

276

Desmond Jennings

OF

0.2

277

Ervin Santana

P

0.08

278

Kevin Quackenbush

P

0.06

279

Mark Teixeira

1B

0

280

Mike Minor

P

0

281

Michael Morse

1B, OF

-0.01

282

James Loney

1B

-0.07

284

Kennys Vargas

DH

-0.08

283

Justin Smoak

1B

-0.08

285

Rajai Davis

OF

-0.14

286

Angel Pagan

OF

-0.19

287

Junichi Tazawa

P

-0.23

288

Henderson Alvarez

P

-0.41

289

R.A. Dickey

P

-0.44

290

Clay Buchholz

P

-0.46

291

Brandon Phillips

2B

-0.51

292

Asdrubal Cabrera

SS, 2B

-0.55

293

Danny Santana

SS, OF

-0.76

294

Shelby Miller

P

-0.79

295

LaTroy Hawkins

P

-0.87

296

Jed Lowrie

SS

-1.02

297

Wade Miley

P

-1.05

298

T.J. House

P

-1.09

299

Danny Farquhar

P

-1.12

300

Brett Cecil

P

-1.15