Yesterday, I took a look back at my preseason American League bold predictions. Today, I do the same for my preseason National League bold predictions. I went 5-25 with my 30 AL-only predictions, let's see if my NL-only predictions were better or worse.
National League East
Michael Taylor puts up a 20 home run, 20 stolen base season as starting center fielder Denard Span misses the first three months of the season, and can't stay healthy all season long.
Casey Janssen, who I own in the Tout Wars NL only league, saves more games than Drew Storen, as Storen loses the job in mid-May, and never gets it back.
Well, I was right about Denard Span not staying healthy all season, and Taylor came close to putting up a 20-20 season, but fell a few home runs and stolen bases short, as he put up a 49-14-63-16 season. I can see him improving on the home run and stolen base stats in his second full season in the big leagues in 2016.
Janssen, didn't come close to saving more games than Storen, but Storen did eventually lose the closer job, but not due to poor performance.
Wilmer Flores makes the Mets front office look smart for not signing/trading for a shortstop this offseason, as he leads the team in home runs with 25 and RBI with 86.
The Mets battle the Nationals for the division title but fall 4 games short.
Flores put up a pretty decent stat line, but did not lead the Mets in home runs.
The Mets not only battled the Nationals for the division title, they won the damn thing.
Marcell Ozuna hits more home runs (35) than Giancarlo Stanton (33), and steals 15 bases as well, and finishes as a top 5 outfielder in 2015.
Jose Fernandez fires a no-hitter in his seventh start back from the disabled list.
Ozuna not only didn't come close to finishing as a top 5 outfielder, he spent more time in AAA than in the majors in 2015. While Fernandez did pitch well once he came off the disabled list, he didn't come close to pitching a no-hitter.
I have bashed Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman all offseason, as I think he is being overvalued in drafts this season. He went for $31 in the NL-only Tout Wars draft on Sunday, and that is about $8-9 more than I would have paid. The Braves had trouble scoring runs last season, and now they are without Justin Upton, Jason Heyward and Evan Gattis....and, oh yeah, Melvin Upton Jr. too.
The Braves will bring up the rear in runs scored in MLB this season.....and by a good margin.
Jason Grilli will lead the Braves in saves this season with 18 after the Braves finally deal closer Craig Kimbrel to the Cardinals in late May.
The Braves finished last in runs scoredthis season, scoring 573 runs, 40 runs fewer than the Marlins.
Well, Kimbrel was not traded to the Cardinals, but he was traded to the Padres, and Grilli did lead the Braves in saves this season with 24.
The Phillies deal Ryan Howard to the Orioles in June, and Darin Ruf takes over first base for him and hits 22 home runs and drives in 65 runs.
Maikel Franco takes over third base after Cody Asche is moved to left field on a full time basis. Franco proceeds to hit .265 with 20 home runs, 75 RBI and challenges Kris Bryant for the NL Rookie of the Year award.
The Phillies did not deal Howard to the Orioles or anyone, and Ruf was pretty bad at the plate when he did play, but he did hit 12 home runs in 102 games.
Franco did take over third base for Asche, who moved to left field, and Franco did challenge Bryant for the Rookie of the Year award until he was hit by a pitch in Arizona in early August. He finished the season hitting .280 with 14 home runs and 50 RBI.
National League Central
Gregory Polanco has a huge breakout season, hitting .290 with 24 home runs and 28 stolen bases, while putting up a better statistical season than teammates Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte.
The Pirates win the NL Central by 6 games.....over the Cubs.
Polanco actually disappointed this season, hitting ,256 with 9 home runs, 83 runs scored, 52 RBI and 27 stolen bases. Not a breakout season and McCutchen and Marte had much better seasons at the plate.
The Pirates won 98 games, but finished two games behind the Cardinals and just one game ahead of the third place Cubs.
Third base prospect Kris Bryant gets called up on Monday April 20th as the Cubs open up a 7 game road trip in Pittsburgh, and proceeds to lead the National League with 39 home runs and drives in 105, winning the NL Rookie of the Year award.
Utility hitter Arismendy Alcantara hits .265 with 17 home runs and 27 stolen bases and finishes the season as a top 5 player at second and third base.
I also like Alex's bold prediction on Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro.
Castro had a miserable season and lost his starting shortstop job to Addison Russell, and Alcantara performed horribly in April was spent the rest of the season in AAA. Bryant is the favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year award, but didn't come close to hitting 39 home runs, but did drive in 99 runs.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals struggle to score runs and finish in third place, 11 games out of first place after going through their roughest season in many years.
Third baseman Matt Carpenter hits more home runs (14) than left fielder Matt Holiday (11), as Holiday endures his worst season as a major leaguer.
While the Cardinals did struggle to score runs this season, they did a great job at preventing runs and won 100 games, finishing with the best record in baseball.
Carpenter did hit more home runs (28) than Matt Holliday (4), and Holliday did endure his worst season as a major leaguer.
Khris Davis leads the Brewers in home runs with 28 and RBI with 89, besting Ryan Braun who hits 26 home runs and drives in 84.
Corey Knebel leads the Brewers in saves with 21 after Francisco Rodriguez gives up 8 home runs by May 15th and loses his closer job.
Despite missing 40 games this season, Davis did lead the Brewers with 27 home runs, while Braun hit 25 bombs.
Knebel didn't lead the Brewers in saves, but I have a feeling I was a year early on this prediction.
Joey Votto returns to the old Joey Votto in 2015, the one with power, as he hits 28 home runs, drives in 90 runs while hitting .325 and finishes in the top 5 in NL MVP voting.
Tony Cingrani ends the season as the Reds closer after dominating in a set up role. The Reds are out of the wild card race in July and deal closer Aroldis Chapman and starter Johnny Cueto to the Cubs for Javier Baez.
Votto was one of the best hitters in baseball this season, hitting 29 home runs, driving in 80 runs and hitting .314. And, I have a feeling he will finish in the Top 5 in NL MVP voting as well.
The Reds did deal Johnny Cueto, and there is a good chance they deal Chapman in the offseason, assuming they go in full rebuild mode, but Cingrani did not end the season as the Reds closer.
National League West
New Dodgers starter Brett Anderson makes 28 starts, going 14-6 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, and finishes the season as a top 30 starter.
Shortstop prospect Corey Seager gets called up in June, after an injury to Jimmy Rollins, and finishes the season with 13 home runs, and a slash line of .270-.350-.450.
Anderson made 31 starts, going 10-9 with a 3.69 ERA, but I wouldn't say he was a top 30 starter at the end of the season.
Seager SHOULD have been called up in June, as shortstop Jimmy Rollins struggled at the plate all season. Seager WAS called up in September and will be the Dodgers starting shortstop in the playoffs.
Outfielder Matt Kemp goes all 2011 on us, silencing his critics by winning the National League MVP award, hitting .295 with 33 home runs, 110 RBI and 25 stolen bases, as the Padres are in the division race through Labor Day, but finish five games behind the Dodgers.
The Padres solve their glut in the outfield by moving Kemp to first base after Yonder Alonso once again disappoints at the plate.
Like 2014, Kemp put up a very good second half, but didn't come close to my prediction of winning the NL MVP award, and the Padres were out of the NL West race in August.
Kemp wasn't moved to first base, but could see time there next season, as he is the worst defensive outfielder besides former teammate Hanley Ramirez.
The Giants move Buster Posey to first base on a full time basis due to the play of catching prospect Andrew Susac, who hits .270 with 16 home runs and 65 RBI. Posey responds to the move by hitting .310 with 26 home runs and 90 RBI, and finishes in the top 3 in MVP voting.
The toll of all those high pressure innings last October catch up to ace Madison Bumgarner as he suffers a Tim Lincecum-like season, going 10-15 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.
Posey did not move to first base, but I can see it happening in the next year or so. Susac didn't come close to my bold prediction, but Posey did hit .318 with 19 home runs and 95 RBI.
Bumgarner did not have a down season after tossing so many innings in 2014, and is still one of the best pitchers in the game.
Outfielder Yasmany Tomas spends more time in AAA than he does in the big leagues after hitting just .185 with 3 home runs and 20 RBI through Memorial Day.
Mark Trumbo benefits from the Tomas demotion, as he goes on to finish second in the National League in home runs with 37, while driving in 94 runs.
Tomas did spend time in AAA but it was only for a week or two, and Trumbo had a disappointing season and was traded to the Mariners before the trade deadline.
The Rockies finally clean house in 2015, trading off Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez and Wilin Rosario, and go into full rebuild mode. Tulowitzki is traded to the Pirates for pitching prospect Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Austin Meadows.
Outfielder Corey Dickerson improves upon his 2014 breakout, hitting .305 with 31 home runs and 95 RBI, and even steals 11 bags as well.
The Rockies did finally deal Tulowitzki, but held onto Gonzalez and Rosario. Dickerson hit well when healthy this season, but missed 95 games. When healthy, he hit .310 with 10 home runs, 30 runs scored and 31 RBI in 65 games.
My National League only bold predictions had a win percentage of 25%, better than my American League win percentage of 17%. Overall I was 13-49, a 21% win percentage. I have to admit this was my best season with the bold predictions.
Was I not bold enough?
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