Catcher Profile: Russell Martin

In 2014, at 31 years old, Russell Martin enjoyed the best season of his career. In 460 PA, Martin achieved heights he’s never reached before, including an incredible .402 on base percentage. Martin’s on base percentage was fourth best in baseball (minimum 450 PA) and his 140 wRC+ was top 20, ahead of notable stars Robinson Cano and Hanley Ramirez.

Here’s a look at Martin’s 2014 season in comparison to his career prior:

Table 1

Year(s)	AVG	OBP	SLG	BABIP	wRC+
2006-13	.255	.349	.396	.284	102
2014	.290	.402	.430	.336	140

Table 2

Year(s)	K%	BB%
2006-13	15.6%	11.5%
2014	17.0%	12.8%

Table 3

Year(s)	LD%	GB%	FB%
2006-13	19.1%	49.4%	31.4%
2014	19.3%	49.0%	31.7%

Martin significantly improved his career AVG, OBP, SLG and wRC+ while keeping his other peripherals like K%, BB%, LD% GB% and FB% virtually the same. His production increase in 2014 was largely BABIP driven.

The puzzling thing is that Martin’s BABIP had been trending downward since his Dodger days. In the 3 seasons prior to last year, Martin ran a BABIP of .247. That makes his 2014 jump in BABIP to .336 look crazy extreme.

So what accounted for the rise in BABIP?

Was Martin hitting the ball harder?

A spike in hard contact can equal a spike in BABIP because hard contact is more difficult to field and turn into outs than softer contact. If Martin began crushing the ball in 2014, it would explain a rise in BABIP, but that didn't happen:

Year	Hard hit rate	League average
2014	17.0%	17.2%
2013	16.7%	17.2%
2012	19.9%	20.8%
2011	24.9%	20.8%
2010	21.8%	20.8%
2009	21.6%	23.4%
2008	21.9%	23.4%
2007	23.9%	23.4%

Martin’s hard hit rate has stuck around league average consistently, so that doesn’t explain the increase in BABIP.

Martin’s infield hits were significantly higher in 2014

Russell Martin had a gigantic increase in infield hits on grounders in 2014 in comparison with the rest of his career.

Year(s)	Infield hit rate
2006-13	5.2%
2014	11.3%

Here’s an example of that:

Tell me which player on this list sticks out like a sore thumb:

Top 15 players in infield hit percentage, 2014 (Min. 450 PA)

Player	Infield hit rate
Mike Trout	15.9%
Starling Marte	14.5%
Rajai Davis	13.5%
Lorenzo Cain	12.9%
Carlos Gomez	12.7%
Andrew McCutchen	12.6%
Adam Eaton	12.2%
Corey Dickerson	12.1%
Yoenis Cespedes	11.8%
Jose Reyes	11.8%
Dexter Fowler	11.3%
Russell Martin	11.3%
Dee Gordon	11.3%
Billy Hamilton	11.2%
Yasiel Puig	11.2%

Martin is sandwiched between Billy Hamilton/Dee Gordon and Dexter Fowler/Jose Reyes for infield hit rate. He had two less infield hits in 2014 than 80 grade runner Billy Hamilton.

Fortunate batted ball placement, such as these dribbling infield hits, are the primary explanation for the huge jump in BABIP for Martin in 2014. This type of BABIP increase is not sustainable. Martin's numbers are going to go down in 2015.

What can we expect from Martin in 2015?

I labeled Martin in my "catcher's to avoid" list, but that's not because I think he'll be a bad player, I just think he'll be overvalued based on last season. Despite moving to an excellent hitter’s park in Toronto, Martin will regress to something near his career norm. Steamer currently has him at .242/.341/.405 with a 111 wRC+. That sounds about right.

Martin is still a solid catcher option at the back end of drafts, but only draft him if the value is right. Don't overpay for him based on 2014. You'll get burned.

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Talk baseball/fantasy with Tim on twitter at @TimFinn521