I was with a group of my friends one night a few years ago and we wanted to go see a movie. Battle Los Angeles had just come out and it seemed like a winner.
I was sure it was going to be good.
It made sense to me. There were (supposed to be) aliens, creepy battle scenes, it was set in Los Angeles, the women seemed pretty and the men seemed like badasses. It was supposed to be good.
And you might ask why I'm bringing up this bizarre story about a mildly irrelevant movie.
Sub out Battle LA and input Robert Griffin III. I'm sorry I recommended playing him last week. I didn't see it coming but maybe I just didn't see the writing on the wall? Aaron Eckhart can't carry a movie by himself, RG III was just waiting to get hurt again. I should've seen it coming and I didn't. So I apologize to those of you out there that trusted me. If it makes you feel any better Griffin's stinker lost me a matchup in one of my leagues as well so I ate what I made. I'll still provide you with some killer commentary this week about what you should and shouldn't be buying. On that note...
Theory 1: Kirk Cousins is a bottom three fantasy starter this week
I checked this morning and saw that Kirk Cousins was ranked as the 29th quarterback in ESPN's rankings. I'm not saying the guy is about to throw up 45 and should be started over the Brees/Manning types but 29 seems awfully low.
Washington is traveling to Philadelphia, home of the friendly Eagles defense in what should be a high paced game. His best offensive threat on the outside, Desean Jackson, assuming he's healthy, is returning to play against the team that he believes wronged him, giving him ample motivation for the night.
Lets also acknowledge the fact that Cousins has proven he's more than capable of having a good game. He's not totally an unproven rookie at this point in time. RG III gets hurt once every 7 seconds and Cousins has been the guy to successfully back him up. There's a reason Washington drafted him as early as they did even when they had their franchise quarterback lined up.
He's playing in a system that should work for him well. I mean...Geno Smith, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jake Locker? These are some of the guys that are ranked ahead of Cousins.
Conclusion: Certainly pick him up as a backup qb at the very least because, for all we know, he might just go off in Sean McVay's system. And if you're looking at one of those mid-teen quarterbacks, on that third tier (Big Ben, Eli, Alex Smith, etc), think hard about popping Cousins into your lineup over them.
Theory 2: A healthy Cecil Shorts is too risky a play this week
I don't buy this one either. Jacksonville should be down big and down early against the Colts, forcing them to air it out.
Shorts also has traditionally done quite well against the Colts, given a healthy dose of targets both of his appearances against them. Meanwhile the Indy D loooooves giving up passing yards (3rd worst against the pass this year).
Conclusion: It's a no-brainer to me. An easy play at your WR 2 in my eyes. They'll lose, he'll get his targets. End of discussion.
Theory 3: Danny Woodhead is going to advance his role in the offense
When Ryan Matthews went down with a major knee injury, obviously there was a scramble for the two Chargers backs: Donald Brown and Danny Woodhead.
Unfortunately that's not really how NFL backfield committees work. Matthews being down may marginally affect the usage of Woodhead, but he remains San Diego's third down back. Brown takes over as the starter and lead back for the Bolts and will have a more significant uptick in his fantasy opportunities. Woodhead certainly has a bit of value, he's one of the best third down backs in the league and always finds a way to impact the game, but don't be fooled into thinking you got a pseudo lead back if you just picked him up. Same ole Danny.
Conclusion: Don't buy this one either. Woodhead will remain San Diego's third down back, although that often time merits consideration in your lineup. He usually tears up Buffalo so don't be afraid to throw him in your flex spot if you're strapped for guys. Just don't be upset when he's not getting 15 carries a game because Matthews is hurt. Not going to happen.
So that's what I got for this week. Best of luck and happy tinkering!