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Week 19: Two-Start Pitchers (Aug. 4-10)

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Ranking and tiering the two-start pitchers for Week 19, including Wade Miley, Charlie Morton and Dillon Gee.

Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Last week was my first five-win week of the season, with Jake Odorizzi, Jacob deGrom and Danny Salazar all earning victories in five starts combined. Week 18 has been nearly as productive, with three wins already out of Odorizzi, Marcus Stroman and Mike Leake through one turn. Trevor Bauer produced the only clunker so far, and all four starters are scheduled to pitch on Sunday.

Results (Through 1/2 of Week 18)

42-27
7.33 K/9
2.40 BB/9
3.39 ERA
1.15 WHIP

Start!

Clayton Kershaw: Tue-LAA (Skaggs), Sun-@MIL (Garza)
Felix Hernandez: Tue-ATL (Wood), Sun-CWS (Danks)
Max Scherzer: Mon-@NYY (McCarthy), Sat-@TOR (Stroman)
David Price: Tue-@NYY (Kuroda), Sun-@TOR (Buehrle)
Johnny Cueto: Tue-@CLE (McAllister), Sun-MIA (Hand)
Corey Kluber: Mon-CIN (Simon), Sat-@NYY (McCarthy)
Zack Greinke: Mon-LAA (Richards), Sat-@MIL (Lohse)

Tier 1

Garrett Richards: Mon-@LAD (Greinke), Sat-BOS (Buchholz)
Alex Cobb: Mon-@OAK (Samardzija), Sun-@CHC (Wood)
Jeff Samardzija: Mon-TB (Cobb), Sat-MIN (Gibson)
Gio Gonzalez: Tue-NYM (Wheeler), Sun-@ATL (Harang)
Tanner Roark: Mon-BAL (Gausman), Sat-@ATL (Santana)
Zack Wheeler: Tue-@WSH (Gonzalez), Sun-@PHI (Kendrick)
Matt Garza: Tue-SF (Lincecum), Sun-LAD (Kershaw)

Tier 2

Dallas Keuchel: Tue-@PHI (Kendrick), Sun-TEX (Martinez)
Danny Duffy: Tue-@ARI (Miley), Sun-SF (Lincecum)
Wade Miley: Tue-KC (Duffy), Sun-COL (Lyles)
Tim Lincecum: Tue-@MIL (Garza), Sun-@KC (Duffy)
Tim Hudson: Mon-@NYM (Gee), Sat-@KC (Shields)
Alfredo Simon: Mon-@CLE (Kluber), Sat-MIA (Alvarez)
Charlie Morton: Tue-MIA (Hand), Sun-SD (Ross)
Dillon Gee: Mon-SF (Hudson), Sat-@PHI (Hamels)
Brandon McCarthy: Mon-DET (Scherzer), Sat-CLE (Kluber)

Tier 3

Kevin Gausman: Mon-@WSH (Roark), Sat-STL (Lynn)
Phil Hughes: Tue-SD (Hahn), Sun-@OAK (Hammel)
Kyle Kendrick: Tue-HOU (Keuchel), Sun-NYM (Wheeler)
John Danks: Tue-TEX (Lewis), Sun-@SEA (Hernandez)
Bud Norris: Tue-@TOR (Buehrle), Sun-STL (Lackey)
Jason Hammel: Tue-TB (Smyly), Sun-MIN (Hughes)
Hiroki Kuroda: Tue-DET (Price), Sun-CLE (McAllister)
Brad Hand: Tue-@PIT (Morton), Sun-@CIN (Cueto)

Not this week

Mark Buehrle: Tue-BAL (Norris), Sun-DET (Price)
Joe Kelly: Tue-@STL (Lackey), Sun-@LAA (Skaggs)
Jordan Lyles: Tue-CHC (Wood), Sun-@ARI (Miley)
Nick Martinez: Mon-@CWS (Noesi), Sun-@HOU (Keuchel)
Zach McAllister: Tue-CIN (Cueto), Sun-@NYY (Kuroda)
Hector Noesi: Mon-TEX (Martinez), Sat-@SEA (Iwakuma)
Tyler Skaggs: Tue-@LAD (Kershaw), Sun-BOS (Kelly)
Travis Wood: Tue-@COL (Lyles), Sun-TB (Cobb)

My Week 19 Picks

Wade Miley, Diamondbacks
2014: 7-7, 145.2 IP, 8.16 K/9, 2.84 BB/9, 49.99 GB%, 4.14 ERA, 1.28 WHIP

Miley is a bit of a wildcard in the desert. His 4.14 ERA has undoubtedly led to his low ownership (16.8 percent in ESPN, 26 percent in Yahoo), but he's been closer to that of a 3.50 ERA pitcher, at least according to his 3.40 xFIP and 3.53 SIERA. Miley is striking out a career-best 8.16 batters per nine, including strikeout games of 10, 8 and 7 in the past month. Miley won't give you a tidy WHIP, but the strikeout upside alone should be worth the cheap price of a simple waiver addition. In Week 19, Miley gets the Royals and Rockies at Chase Field, where he has struggled overall (5.45 ERA in 67 2/3 innings), but Kansas City and Colorado are coming off terrible July's. Neither team is particularly patient (the Royals are dead last in walk rate, in fact), so Miley's recent bout of wildness isn't as great of a concern.

Charlie Morton, Pirates
2014: 5-10, 137.1 IP, 7.08 K/9, 3.08 BB/9, 54.0 GB%, 3.54 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

Chuck has put together his best season to date, despite logging a 5-10 record. He's recorded a quality start in half of his 22 games started, and his 1.0 WAR, according to FanGraphs, is currently the best mark on the Pirates. (Brandon Cumpton and Vance Worley are tied for second on that list, at 0.8 fWAR. Maybe the Buccos should have traded for a starter...) Really, though, you'll want to use Morton for his extremely advantageous pair of starts in Week 19, when he faces the struggling Reds and the season-long offensive black hole that is the Padres. Cincinnati scored the 29th fewest runs in July, and San Diego -- while playing much better on offense as of late -- weren't far behind at 22nd. We've seen an uptick in Morton's strikeouts to over seven strikeouts per nine innings (first time in career), and he's still producing a solid 54 percent groundball rate. Morton has never tossed this many innings before, but we shouldn't be worried about a possible innings limit/fatigue situation just yet.

Dillon Gee, Mets
2014: 4-4, 76.1 IP, 6.25 K/9, 2.48 BB/9, 45.1 GB%, 3.77 ERA, 1.10 WHIP

This week's available two-start pool isn't great, to be honest, so I was happy see the steady Gee available at my disposal. Injuries have slowed down Gee's 2014, but I expect him to finish strong. His velocity hasn't been affected much, and helping matters in Week 19 are a pair of bottom-five offenses (in terms of wOBA) on deck in the Giants and Phillies. I expect nothing short of two quality starts from the dependable Gee in Week 18.

Stats from FanGraphs.com