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Has Anything Changed: Noah Syndergaard, RHP, New York Mets

Jason Hunt wrote about Noah Syndergaard almost a year ago to the date. Has anything changed with the top pitching prospect, and when can we anticipate seeing him in the bigs?


A year ago, I took a look at Noah Syndergaard, a top prospect in the Mets' system that had recently been promoted to AA Binghamton. It's been a busy year for him, so let's take another look to see where he stands now.

What has happened in the last year?

Syndergaard was promoted to AA shortly before the end of June last year, and finished up the season at AA Binghamton, throwing 54 innings, striking out 69 and walking 12 with a 3.00 ERA. The final numbers weren't as reflective as they could have been, as Syndergaard finished his season with a three inning, nine earned run outing which brought that ERA up to 3.00.

Despite just the low inning total, Syndergaard was done with AA, as the organization sent him to AAA Las Vegas at the start of the season. It was expected that he would be capped at around 150-160 innings pitched, with speculation on a number of methods on how the team would accomplish that. So far, he has thrown 69 innings at AAA Las Vegas, but has missed time this year due to a pair of injuries. The performance doesn't look amazing (5.35 ERA, 1.493 WHIP), but Las Vegas is known for being a hitters' paradise and the peripherals look solid (71 K, 23 BB in 69 IP). He appears to have been a bit unlucky so far, with a .359 BABIP and a strand rate of just 63% on the season.

Has Anything Changed in His Prospect Status?

Honestly, not really. He was viewed as our #19 consensus prospect during the offseason, and was our #7 pitching prospect. The injuries have forced him to miss time, but with one of them being on his non-pitching shoulder and one being a flexor-pronator strain on his throwing shoulder, the organization does not seem to be as concerned, and Syndergaard has already made three starts since returning from the left shoulder injury. His performance has been good overall, if unlucky, and there hasn't really been anything in the more recent reports which are particularly concerning. With this season's graduations, he's likely a top 15 fantasy prospect, and fairly easily a top five pitching prospect.

When Could We See Him in the Majors, and What Does It Mean When It Happens?

At this point, Syndergaard has moved into the middle of the Buy and Hold list, as he could be called up within the next month or so. His potential performance in the majors would rank him in the top 30-40 of starting pitchers over a full season, and realistically should be owned as soon as he is called up in all formats. He's currently blocked in the rotation by Jacob deGrom and Daisuke Matsuzaka, and it seems like the team will eventually replace one of them with Syndergaard. I can see him producing a line with an ERA around 3.75, 80 strikeouts, and a 1.20 WHIP if he's called up by the All-Star break. I wouldn't grab him ahead of any of the five players ahead of him on the Buy and Hold just yet, but he could be in the top 3 by next week.