Consensus Position Rankings/Projections: Top 75 Starting Pitchers for 2014, Part 3

We published part 1 of our consensus starting pitcher rankings on Monday morning, and part 2 on Wednesday morning. Today we bring you part 3 of our rankings for 2014. We used a points system for each of the 75 starting pitchers ranked by each of the Fake Teams writers who participated in the consensus rankings series.

Below you will find links to all of our position rankings and projections that we have published to date:

Catcher: Part 1| Part 2

First Base: Part 1| Part 2

Second Base: Part 1| Part 2

Shortstop: Part 1| Part 2

Third Base: Part 1| Part 2

Outfielders: Part 1| Part 2| Part 3

Starting Pitchers: Part 1| Part 2

We feel that providing you with our consensus position rankings, you get an average ranking from the Fake Teams writers, rather than just my updated rankings throughout the offseason. You will see some players ranked higher by one Fake Teams writer than the others, so this helps the reader see both sides of the argument for/against a certain player who might be getting too much love this offseason.

The starting pitcher rankings will be split into three parts, rankings, player profiles and projections for starting pitchers ranked 1 - 25 in part 1, and rankings, player profiles and projections for starting pitchers ranked 26 - 50 in part 2 to be published on Wednesday morning, and starting pitchers ranked 51-75 on Friday morning. I probably won't write about each of the starting pitchers ranked, but will provide comments on players that I like/dislike for 2014. Consensus rankings should bring about discussion amongst you, our readers, and the Fake Teams writers who participated in this series.

In addition to the rankings, we are now offering your 2014 projections for each player ranked, courtesy of Dan Schwartz from Fake Teams and Rotobanter. He has spent all offseason on his projections, and to learn more about how he calculates his projections, you can read his explanations here: Part 1| Part 2| Part 3. Part 1 details his projection approach, Part 2 details how he calculates his hitter projections and part 3 details how he calculates his pitcher projections.

And all of this is consolidated, with player photos, into statistical tables thanks to the work of Jason Hunt.

2014 Starting Pitcher Rankings

Now let's take a look at part 3 of our Top 75 Fantasy Starting Pitcher Rankings for 2014:

Rank	Player	Team	Ranking Points	Ray	Matt	Brian	Alex	Daniel	Joe	Jason	Zack
51	Corey Kluber	CLE	202	52	50	49	65		39	56	33
52	R.A. Dickey	TOR	200	48	43		45	38	73	60	39
53	Tim Lincecum	SFG	175	55	61	58	62	46	53	71	43
54	Ubaldo Jimenez	BAL	161	53		43	57	75	59	46	52
55	Chris Archer	TBR	159	49	49	66	56	63	71	50	61
56	Lance Lynn	STL	158	54		65	42		37	40	72
57	Yovani Gallardo	MIL	150	56	56	50	61		61	53	59
58	Zack Wheeler	NYM	145	51	45	67	48		74	61	55
59	Dan Haren	LAD	134	71	60	69	63	66	47	68	46
60	Jarrod Parker	OAK	133	61	66		54	67	65	35	65
61	Jake Peavy	BOS	127		57	64	50	64	66	58	60
62	Ervin Santana	FA	125			61	51	39	67	57	68
63	John Lackey	BOS	125	59		51	58	45	75	75	58
64	Chris Tillman	BAL	123	72	64		55	41	64		49
65	Marco Estrada	MIL	118		62	55	66	74	56	62	53
66	A.J. Griffin	OAK	109	57	54			52	40
67	Rick Porcello	DET	102	58	70	54	64		49		71
68	Bartolo Colon	NYM	99	64			69	58	45	55
69	Dan Straily	OAK	98	67			60	56	43		66
70	Josh Johnson	SDP	90		51		75	49		47
71	Ian Kennedy	SDP	84	75		68	73		50		40
72	Ivan Nova	NYY	78	70		72	72	57	41
73	Tyson Ross	SDP	73	46		60			55
74	Taijuan Walker	SEA	70	69	31				69		73
75	Ricky Nolasco	MIN	65			63		51		70	63

Also receiving votes: Alex Wood (62), Martin Perez (60), Drew Smyly (60), Jose Quintana (50), Tim Hudson (48), Derek Holland (48), Scott Kazmir (44), Dillon Gee (39), Wade Miley (38), Edwin Jackson (33), Matt Harrison (30), Travis Wood (28), Jonathon Niese (24), Brandon Beachy (21), Brandon Morrow (19), Danny Duffy (16), Nate Eovaldi (15), Miguel Gonzalez (13), Wandy Rodriguez (11), Jhoulys Chacin (10), Yordano Ventura (10), Kyle Lohse (9), James Paxton (9), Jeremy Hellickson (8), Kevin Gausman (8), Jason Vargas (7), Mark Buehrle (6), Trevor Cahill (6), Erik Johnson (6), Hector Santiago (5), Alexi Ogando (5), Jarred Cosart (4), Archie Bradley (3)

Player Profiles

	# 51 Corey Kluber (CLE)
Photo Credit: Lance Iversen - USA Today Sports

2013 FANTASY STATISTICS
W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
11	0	3.85	1.262	136
2013 SECONDARY STATISTICS
IP	HR/9	H/9	BB%	K%
147.1	0.9	9.3	5.43%	22.37%
2014 ROTOBANTER PROJECTIONS
W	IP	ERA	WHIP	K
13	174	3.70	1.26	167
Auction Value: $ 9.79

Zack Smith profiled Kluber earlier in the week, and he is a pitcher I think should be targeted in the mid-rounds of mixed league drafts this season. Under the tutelage of pitching coach Mickey Callaway, who could be one of the best in the business, Kluber had a breakout year in 2013. He strikes out more than eight batters per nine, limits the walks and keeps the ball on the ground, the perfect recipe for Kluber to take another step up in 2014.

	# 52 R.A. Dickey (TOR)
Photo Credit: Kim Klement - USA Today Sports

2013 FANTASY STATISTICS
W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
14	0	4.21	1.237	177
2013 SECONDARY STATISTICS
IP	HR/9	H/9	BB%	K%
224.2	1.4	8.3	7.53%	18.77%
2014 ROTOBANTER PROJECTIONS
W	IP	ERA	WHIP	K
13	215	4.37	1.27	167
Auction Value: $ 4.59

Dickey endured a rough start to the 2013 season, pitching to a 4.69 ERA in the first half, but turned things around in the second half, lowering his ERA to 3.56. His strikeout rate dropped from just under nine strikeouts per nine to just over seven strikeouts per nine, but we warned you that would happen. The move out of Citi Field to the Rogers Centre didn't help his home run rate, as he gave up 35 home runs in 224.2 innings. If he can limit the long ball in 2014, we could see another sub-4.00 ERA from Dickey, but don't expect another spike in the strikeout rate.

	# 53 Tim Lincecum (SFG)
Photo Credit: Joe Camporeale - USA Today Sports

2013 FANTASY STATISTICS
W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
10	0	4.37	1.315	193
2013 SECONDARY STATISTICS
IP	HR/9	H/9	BB%	K%
197.2	1	8.4	9.04%	22.95%
2014 ROTOBANTER PROJECTIONS
W	IP	ERA	WHIP	K
12	197	3.99	1.30	185
Auction Value: $ 7.08

Lincecum apparently started throwing in the offseason for the first time ever, so he is one to keep your eye on in spring training to see if there is an uptick in his fastball velocity, which has dropped into the low 90 mph range. He still strikes out more than eight batters per nine, but he gets hurt by the walk and the long ball, as his HR/FB% has been above league average in each of the last two seasons. If you need a strikeout pitcher late in drafts, he is your guy, but don't expect a sub-4.00 ERA to come along with it.

	# 54 Ubaldo Jimenez (BAL)
Photo Credit: Kevin C. Cox - Getty Images

2013 FANTASY STATISTICS
W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
13	0	3.3	1.33	194
2013 SECONDARY STATISTICS
IP	HR/9	H/9	BB%	K%
182.2	0.8	8	10.30%	24.97%
2014 ROTOBANTER PROJECTIONS
W	IP	ERA	WHIP	K
12	182	3.88	1.32	171
Auction Value: $ 6.55

We all know the deal with Ubaldo Jimenez. He had a great stretch against a lot of bad teams late in the season, and ended the season with ace like stats, winning 13 games with a 3.30 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 3.62 xFIP, a 1.33 WHIP and a 25% strikeout rate in 182 innings. The question is how will he perform now that he is moving from the pitcher-friendly Progressive Field to the home run-friendly Camden Yards. If he can keep the strikeout rate above nine, and can see an uptick in the ground ball rate, he could continue to dominate hitters like he did last season. He moves from one excellent pitching coach in Mickey Callaway in Cleveland to another in Dave Wallace in Baltimore. Add in the fact that he has one of the best infields in baseball behind him, and he could come close to repeating his 2013 performance.

For more on Jimenez, check out this profile written by Daniel Kelley on Wednesday.

	# 55 Chris Archer (TBR)
Photo Credit: Tommy Gilligan - USA Today Sports

2013 FANTASY STATISTICS
W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
9	0	3.22	1.127	101
2013 SECONDARY STATISTICS
IP	HR/9	H/9	BB%	K%
128.2	1	7.5	7.24%	19.24%
2014 ROTOBANTER PROJECTIONS
W	IP	ERA	WHIP	K
12	187	4.05	1.30	153
Auction Value: $ 5.12

Archer had a solid 2013 season, winning nine of his 23 starts, with a 3.22 ERA, 4.07 FIP, a 3.91 xFIP, 1.13 WHIP and a19.2% strikeout rate in 128.2 innings. Archer struck out just over seven batters per nine, but limited the walks to 2.66 BB/9 and owned a ground ball rate of 47% last season. If he can improve the strikeout rate, we could see another sub-3.50 ERA in 2014.

	# 56 Lance Lynn (STL)
Photo Credit: Steve Mitchell - USA Today Sports

2013 FANTASY STATISTICS
W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
15	0	3.97	1.314	198
2013 SECONDARY STATISTICS
IP	HR/9	H/9	BB%	K%
201.2	0.6	8.4	8.88%	23.13%
2014 ROTOBANTER PROJECTIONS
W	IP	ERA	WHIP	K
12	195	3.57	1.28	184
Auction Value: $ 10.53

Lynn had a solid 2013 season, winning 15 of his 33 starts, with a 3.97 ERA, 3.28 FIP, 3.66 xFIP, 1.31 WHIP and a 23.1% strikeout rate in 201.2 innings. Lynn is prone to the blow up from time to time, but offers plenty of strikeouts and a sub-4.00 ERA, but that comes with lots of base runners. If your pitching staff needs wins and strikeouts and can deal with a sub-par ERA and WHIP, Lynn is not a bad option later in drafts. He pitched better than his ERA indicates, so there might be a breakout season in Lynn's tank.

	# 57 Yovani Gallardo (MIL)
Photo Credit: Lance Iversen - USA Today Sports

2013 FANTASY STATISTICS
W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
12	0	4.18	1.362	144
2013 SECONDARY STATISTICS
IP	HR/9	H/9	BB%	K%
180.2	0.9	9	8.54%	18.63%
2014 ROTOBANTER PROJECTIONS
W	IP	ERA	WHIP	K
12	195	3.91	1.33	177
Auction Value: $ 6.29

Gallardo is a lot like Lynn, as he usually strikes out plenty of batters, until last season. Gallardo saw his strikeout rate drop from 9.00 K/9 to 7.17 K/9 last season, but there was growth elsewhere. He lowered his walk rate slightly, lowered his home runs allowed and increased his ground ball rate, so we could see 12-14 wins with a sub-4.00 ERA from him in 2014.

	# 58 Zack Wheeler (NYM)
Photo Credit: Brad Barr - USA Today Sports

2013 FANTASY STATISTICS
W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
7	0	3.42	1.36	84
2013 SECONDARY STATISTICS
IP	HR/9	H/9	BB%	K%
100	0.9	8.1	10.67%	19.49%
2014 ROTOBANTER PROJECTIONS
W	IP	ERA	WHIP	K
10	167	3.82	1.27	148
Auction Value: $ 5.73

So a story in the New York Post yesterday quoted a scout saying that he would prefer the Mets top three arms, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler and Noah Syndergaard over Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg.

Mighty high statement to make, but Wheeler has a bright future ahead of him. Last season he went 7-5 in his 17 starts with a3.42 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 4.21 xFIP, 1.36 WHIP and a 19.5% strikeout rate in 100 innings. He struck out 7.56 batters per nine but couldn't limit the free pass as he walked over four batters per nine. He did keep the ball on the ground at a solid 43.2% rare, so if he can raise his strikeout rate a bit and gain some control, we could see a sub-4.00 ERA from Wheeler in 2014. He won't go all Matt Harvey on us, but he should be a decent late round starting pitcher option.

Name	W	ERA	WHIP	K	Auc $
# 59 Dan Haren (LAD)	11	3.90	1.18	150	8.82

	# 60 Jarrod Parker (OAK)
Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas - USA Today Sports

2013 FANTASY STATISTICS
W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
12	0	3.97	1.223	134
2013 SECONDARY STATISTICS
IP	HR/9	H/9	BB%	K%
197	1.1	8.1	7.70%	16.38%
2014 ROTOBANTER PROJECTIONS
W	IP	ERA	WHIP	K
12	181	3.90	1.25	131
Auction Value: $ 6.35

Maybe it is because I traded Parker last year in my AL only keeper league, but I am just not that high on him, even though he pitches in a very pitcher-friendly stadium. I ranked him as my 66th ranked starter in our rankings, but am pretty sure I had him ranked higher heading into last season. Last season, he won 12 of his 32 starts with a 3.97 ERA, 4.40 FIP, 4.41 xFIP , 1.22 WHIP, and a 16.25 strikeout rate in 197 innings. He barely strikes out over six batters per nine, and walked under three batters per nine, with a 41% ground ball rate, but I expected more from the once highly-touted prospect. He doesn't appear to be big strikeout pitcher, and I could see him being an option on the waiver wire this year rather than drafted on draft day.

Name	W	ERA	WHIP	K	Auc $
# 61 Jake Peavy (BOS)	12	4.11	1.23	138	6.09

	# 62 Ervin Santana (FA)
Photo Credit: Jake Roth - USA Today Sports

2013 FANTASY STATISTICS
W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
9	0	3.24	1.142	161
2013 SECONDARY STATISTICS
IP	HR/9	H/9	BB%	K%
211	1.1	8.1	5.94%	18.74%
2014 ROTOBANTER PROJECTIONS
W	IP	ERA	WHIP	K
11	203	3.90	1.27	155
Auction Value: $ 6.36

Santana is still a free agent at the moment, and judging by the teams that have shown interest in him, he would probably drop out of our top 75 rankings if he signed with any of them except for the Mariners. Seattle is his best destination for fantasy purposes, as he is a fly ball, homer-prone pitcher, and Safeco would be a better fit than Baltimore, Colorado or Texas.

Name	W	ERA	WHIP	K	Auc $
# 63 John Lackey (BOS)	12	4.02	1.27	129	4.81

	# 64 Chris Tillman (BAL)
Photo Credit: Kevin C. Cox - Getty Images

2013 FANTASY STATISTICS
W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
16	0	3.71	1.221	179
2013 SECONDARY STATISTICS
IP	HR/9	H/9	BB%	K%
206.1	1.4	8	8.05%	21.18%
2014 ROTOBANTER PROJECTIONS
W	IP	ERA	WHIP	K
12	195	3.95	1.25	163
Auction Value: $ 7.98

Tillman had a breakout season in 2013, winning 16 of his 33 starts with a 3.71 ERA, 4.42 FIP, 3.88 xFIP, 1.22 WHIP and 21.2% strikeout rate in a career high 206.1 innings. Tillman is the reason why I think Ubaldo Jimenez can do well pitching in Camden Yards in 2014, as he strikes out more batters and induces ground balls at a higher rate.

Tillman will have to reduce his 1.44 HR/9 rate to get his ERA in the 3.30-.3.50 range, but he did improve his strikeouts per nine and kept his walk rate down under 3.00 BB/9 last season, so we could see more growth from Tillman this season.

Name	W	ERA	WHIP	K	Auc $
# 65 Marco Estrada (MIL)	10	3.72	1.19	144	8.23
# 66 A.J. Griffin (OAK)	12	3.72	1.17	142	10.23

	# 67 Rick Porcello (DET)
Photo Credit: Kim Klement - USA Today Sports

2013 FANTASY STATISTICS
W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
13	0	4.32	1.282	142
2013 SECONDARY STATISTICS
IP	HR/9	H/9	BB%	K%
177	0.9	9.4	5.71%	19.29%
2014 ROTOBANTER PROJECTIONS
W	IP	ERA	WHIP	K
13	186	3.87	1.27	152
Auction Value: $ 7.75

If you are looking for a late round starting pitcher to target, look no further than Rick Porcello (or Ian Kennedy or Tyson Ross) to fill out your rotation needs. Porcello showed lots of across the board growth in 2013, winning 13 of his 29 starts, with a 4.32 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 3.19 xFIP, 1.28 WHIP and a 19.3% strikeout rate. His advanced pitching stats indicate he pitched better than his ERA, so there is room for improvement in 2014.

For an idea as to his growth, let's take a look at some peripheral stats:

ERA: moved from 4.59 to 4.32

FIP: moved from 3.91 to 3.53

xFIP: improved from 3.89 to 3.19

K/9: improved from 5.46 to 7.22

GB%: improved from 53.2% to 55.3%

WHIP: improved from 1.53 to 1.28

K%: improved from 13.7% to 19.35

So his K%, WHIP and xFIP showed the most growth in 2013, and if xFIP is a predictor of future ERAs, he could really surprise in 2014.

Name	W	ERA	WHIP	K	Auc $
# 68 Bartolo Colon (NYM)	13	3.68	1.20	116	9.02
# 69 Dan Straily (OAK)	12	3.74	1.23	158	9.41

	# 70 Josh Johnson (SDP)
Photo Credit: Joe Camporeale - USA Today Sports

2013 FANTASY STATISTICS
W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
2	0	6.2	1.66	83
2013 SECONDARY STATISTICS
IP	HR/9	H/9	BB%	K%
81.1	1.7	11.6	7.81%	21.61%
2014 ROTOBANTER PROJECTIONS
W	IP	ERA	WHIP	K
8	130	3.37	1.24	120
Auction Value: $ 5.8

Of all the Padres starters in the bottom third of our Top 75 Rankings, Johnson is the starter that I would stay away from due to his history of shoulder issues. But, if he can stay healthy, he could be an excellent late round gamble as your 5th-6th starter, as he still strikes out more than a batter per inning, limits the walks, and induces ground balls at a 45-50% rate.

	# 71 Ian Kennedy (SDP)
Photo Credit: Joe Camporeale - USA Today Sports

2013 FANTASY STATISTICS
W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
7	0	4.91	1.395	163
2013 SECONDARY STATISTICS
IP	HR/9	H/9	BB%	K%
181.1	1.3	8.9	9.19%	20.53%
2014 ROTOBANTER PROJECTIONS
W	IP	ERA	WHIP	K
13	188	3.94	1.29	168
Auction Value: $ 7.52

Kennedy gives up a lot of home runs, as his HR/9, 1.21 HR/9 in 2012 and 1.34 HR/9 in 2013, indicate, but that should change now that he is pitching in Petco Park for at least half of his starts in 2014. He has given up 55 home runs over the last two seasons, covering roughly 390 innings, but that number should fall this season. He strikes out eight batters per nine, but will have to reduce his walks per nine back under three (as he did in 2011 and 2012) to see his ERA drop back into the 3.50-.400 range.

Name	W	ERA	WHIP	K	Auc $
# 72 Ivan Nova (NYY)	12	3.66	1.29	179	9.49

	# 73 Tyson Ross (SDP)
Photo Credit: Joe Camporeale - USA Today Sports

2013 FANTASY STATISTICS
W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
3	0	3.17	1.152	119
2013 SECONDARY STATISTICS
IP	HR/9	H/9	BB%	K%
125	0.6	7.2	8.73%	23.61%
2014 ROTOBANTER PROJECTIONS
W	IP	ERA	WHIP	K
9	155	3.59	1.21	149
Auction Value: $ 8.09

Ross was used out the bullpen and rotation last season, and was pretty dominant when placed in the starting rotation in the second half. In his 16 starts, he went just 3-5, but with an excellent 3.06 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and a 97-33 strikeout to walk rate in 94 innings. He pretty much stopped throwing his two seam fastball, relying on his fastball and slider to raise his strikeout rate from 13.5% in 20122 to 23.6% last season. Not only did he improve his K/9 from 5.65 K/9 to 8.57 K/9, but he reduced his walk rate from 4.54 BB/9 to 3.17 BB/9, and improved his ground ball rate to just under 55%. He was one of the best starters in the second half last season, and I see him building on that in 2014.

Name	W	ERA	WHIP	K	Auc $
# 74 Taijuan Walker (SEA)	10	3.72	1.28	146	6.12

	# 75 Ricky Nolasco (MIN)
Photo Credit: Steve Mitchell - USA Today Sports

2013 FANTASY STATISTICS
W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
13	0	3.7	1.209	165
2013 SECONDARY STATISTICS
IP	HR/9	H/9	BB%	K%
199.1	0.8	8.8	5.52%	19.78%
2014 ROTOBANTER PROJECTIONS
W	IP	ERA	WHIP	K
12	188	4.03	1.31	141
Auction Value: $ 4.2

Nolasco had a bit of a bounce back season, winning 13 of his 33 starts in Miami and Los Angeles, and saw his strikeouts per nine jump above 7.9 K/9 for the first time since 2010. He's a control pitcher who induces ground balls at a 40-45% rate. I can see him putting up an ERA in the 3.50-.3.75 range with 10-11 wins and a 1.25 WHIP in 2014.

Fantasy Rundown

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