Top Prospects: 2014 Consensus Top 200 Fantasy Prospects, Part 2

It's been a long offseason, and with baseball games already being played, the prospect staff here at Fake Teams has finished up the last of their coverage plan with the completion of our consensus top 200 fantasy prospects. We've seen changes in our staff, but as always our aim is to provide the readers with as much coverage of the minor leagues as possible for your dynasty and keeper formats. The top 200 will be split into three parts: Top 50, 51-100, and 101-200.

Our Process

After participating in the discussion of each team's list over the offseason, our prospect staff submitted an initial top 200 list of prospects. We pulled those lists together, and gave each player ranked a set amount of points based on each list's ranking, starting with 200 points for the #1 prospect on each list, and so on. Once we had our initial list, we discussed players where we felt one ranker may have been out of step in either direction. The goal wasn't necessarily to change that ranker's mind about their ranking, but more to get an understanding of their concerns regarding the prospect.

For each prospect, we are providing their ranking on the individual lists of Jason Hunt, Brian Creagh, and Matt Mattingly, as well as the overall consensus ranking based on our points system. In addition, I (Jason) have gone through and estimated the start level and league for each player for the 2014 season, as well as an approximate ETA to the majors. These are all educated estimates, and we will likely find out that players are going elsewhere as the spring wears on.

The Usual Reminders

You've probably heard it before, but any time you prepare a ranked list of any kind, it bears repeating. This list is a snapshot of a moment in time, and will likely change at any given point in the future. We believe that these are the top 50 fantasy prospects right now collectively, but each writer had their own opinion on where each prospect belongs on their own list. So you'll see players that are ranked differently by each of our writers, some very substantially. This is the first time Fake Teams has ever produced a set of prospect rankings this deep, and we're very proud of the work we've done this offseason. We welcome your comments and questions, and want discussion to follow along with these lists.

While I will not be writing up every prospect in our rankings (you can see quite a few of them in our Minor League Keeper Thoughts series from this year), I will be providing some notes on a lot of them. I'm also dividing the rankings up into groups of 10. These are not tiers or specifically divided that way for a reason other than I wanted to divide them into more manageable groups, so don't read too much into the specific separations. With that, let's get into the rankings.

• There are extremely conflicting reports on what J.P. Crawford can be for fantasy owners moving forward. He is considered a solid hitter, but with little power to speak of as of now. He's a lock to stay at shortstop long-term, so the threshold he would need to pass to be a usable hitter isn't that high, and his advocates believe strongly that he will end up an excellent hitter. He's definitely a player to watch this season, as he could be 30 spots higher with a good offensive year.
• It was a lost year for David Dahl, and as a result now might be the time to try to buy low on the Rockies' prospect. A year ago we were looking at a potential fantasy monster who would play at Coors Field, and realistically I don't think the ceiling has really changed on him. There is some risk, especially with him losing the full year of development due to suspension and injuries, but he's another prospect who could jump these rankings with a good year.
• I am a big fan of Nationals' prospect A.J. Cole, and really wish the A's hadn't traded him back to the Nats. He put together a great year in 2013 after a lost season between the California League and Low-A in 2012, and has put himself on the map to be in the rotation for the Nationals by season's end potentially.
• Mookie Betts may be one of the few prospects on this list where his situation forced me to drop his ranking a little bit. Keith Law noted that he may be the most blocked prospect in the minors, and while I think he has similar upside potential to Arismendy Alcantara, there is almost no path that is clear enough to be visible to get him into Boston's lineup right now.

• Matt Davidson is a bit overlooked this year, as he walks into the starting third base job on the south side of Chicago. I don't think it will be particularly difficult for him to hit .270 with 15-20 home runs this year, and consistently moving forward.
• The spectrum on Kyle Crick is one of the wider ones amongst pitching prospects. There's still the potential for the high upside #2 type of starting pitcher, but there's also the possibility that he cannot make the adjustments needed and ends up as a high-leverage reliever with the potential to be a closer long-term.
• Jake Marisnick had a poor major league debut last year, but should still be the starting center fielder for the Marlins by season's end. He's capable of providing 10+ home runs along with 15-20 stolen bases, and I think that may be on the low end.

• Joey Gallo is known for his top flight power potential, and in spite of the ridiculous strikeout rate, is making that power play in game. If we thought he could hit for at least a passable average (.245+), he'd probably be in the top 50 instead.
• The initial reports on Sean Manaea this spring are making it sound like we're all going to be too low on him, and that the injury concerns should be mostly behind him. He could be a quick mover if everything goes smoothly this year.
• The book on Alexander Guerrero hasn't been written yet, but it's a bit worrisome that there are rumblings that Dee Gordon may start the season as the starting second baseman in spite of Guerrero's contract and arrival. It will be worth watching as we get closer to the start of the season, but I do think that Guerrero ends the season as the starter even if he doesn't start as it.

• Dan Vogelbach came into camp this year 30 pounds lighter, and if it helps with his mobility enough to keep him as a first baseman instead of a future designated hitter, his value could jump a lot. He still will have solid value in dynasty formats even if he does end up as a DH-only option in the future, but will need to continue to hit at each level to ensure that value.
• Liriano and Kelly are two prospects who missed all of last year due to injury, but both could be in San Diego by the end of the season in starting roles. Your opportunity to buy low on both of them could be passing, especially Liriano who has the potential to be a 20 HR/20 SB outfielder.
• Cecchini is a name to remember if you're in an OBP league, as he has shown an elite ability to get on base so far in the minors. There are questions about how much power he will hit for down the line, but he's definitely a name that would move up about 20-25 spots in OBP leagues.

• The tools keep me looking at Courtney Hawkins, but the assignment that the White Sox gave him last year may have stunted his development some. There's still the potential for a 20 HR/20 SB outfielder there as well. If he can go out and make the necessary adjustments, he could be back in the top 50 at season's end.
• A name that could also move way up this list in 2014 is Ryan McMahon. A power hitting third baseman, McMahon could turn into a .280/25 HR hitter with the potential to provide true four-category production in a huge offensive environment.
• Both Paxton and Johnson are lined up to get a shot at a spot in their team's starting rotations this spring, and while Nelson could be also, I think Johnson is the most likely to get one. All three would be deep league plays or streaming options for this year.