Baseball Prospectus NL Only Mock Auction Draft Results

Mike Gianella from Baseball Prospectus was kind enough to invite me to participate in the Baseball Prospectus NL only mock auction draft about a week and a half ago. I was very excited to participate, as I have been playing in NL only auction leagues for at least 20 years now, and I wanted to see how the rest of the fantasy industry was valuing players heading into the 2014 season.

This draft also helps me for two of my NL only auction keeper leagues, to an extent. Both leagues have some inflation, which is always present in auction keeper leagues, but the inflation in one of my leagues is very tame when compared to my New York City based keeper league, so the draft results will be pretty comparable to what I can expect on draft day.

Before I get to the auction result, here are the participants in the BP NL only mock auction:

The Participants

• Baseball Prospectus - Mike Gianella
• Fake Teams - Ray Guilfoyle
• Fantasy Trade 411 - Terrance Bridgett
• KFFL - Tim Heaney
• Roto Wire - Nick Shlain
• Patton and Company - Keith Cromer
• Real Time Sports - Jeff Paur
• Roto Wire - Kenn Ruby
• The Dynasty Guru - Ryan Potter
• The Fantasy Fix - Brett Talley
• Wise Guy Baseball - Gene McCaffrey
• Regular Guy - Brian Green-Young

Quick Thoughts

I came into this draft expecting to pay for a couple ace or near ace starting pitchers, but instead did just the opposite. I did not prepare much for this draft, as the consensus rankings series has kept me quite busy since the end of January. With that said, my 20+ years of auction draft experience and offseason rankings and research work left me prepared enough to know what a fair price is for players we would bid on.

My first purchase was Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun, who I purchased for $31. Based on the winning bid, it appears many in the room are scared off by his PED suspension, probably wondering if his 30 home run power was the result of a long-term PED program. I am not in that camp, and think Braun will revert back to the Braun of old this season. ZiPS projects him to hit .290 with 33 home runs and 22 stolen bases this season. That's first round value in any league.

My next purchase was Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki at $36. It was more than I wanted to pay for him, but after seeing several of the top players at each position, namely Clayton Kershaw, Paul Goldschmidt, Andrew McCutchen go for $40+, I felt that Tulo, with the injury risk and all, at $36 was a fair price to pay.

Once I won the bidding on Adrian Gonzalez at $26 and Giancarlo Stanton at $32, I knew my pre-draft strategy was out the window, and decided to focus my draft on hitters who played every day.

Once I realized I was going hitter heavy in this draft, I decided that I should grab one of the best power hitters in the game, Pirates third baseman Pedro Alvarez, despite the .230 average and 30% strikeout rate.

I did win the bidding on one ace starter-Zack Greinke-at $25, and did grab two closers in Trevor Rosenthal at $23 and Addison Reed at $13, I knew I wouldn't be winning the bidding on any second tier starting pitchers either.

I felt I got great value in winning the bidding on Braves outfielder B.J. Upton at $11. He is a year removed from a 20 home run, 30 stolen base season, and I see him bouncing back nicely in 2014.

Looking back, I think I would feel better about my team had I used the $23 I spent on Rosenthal on another starting pitcher or two.