NFBC ADP Rankings Analysis: Third Base

Today we take a look at the average draft position data for third baseman to see how our consensus rankings fared against the NFBC (National Fantasy Baseball Championship) ADP rankings courtesy of NESN.com.

Along with the NFBC ADP rankings, the NESN site also provides the Max Pick and Min Pick data, which tells readers where the player was drafted the highest and the lowest thus far in the NFBC drafts.

In addition, I thought it would be helpful to include the Fake Teams consensus third base rankings in the table below to see how close the collective rankings of eight independent writers fared vs the NFBC ADP rankings. The NFBC rankings are collected from all the NFBC drafts that have completed to date. Each of the NBC drafts consist of 15 teams and 30 rounds, so the data is a good barometer for where players are being drafted.

Quick Thoughts

We ranked Tigers third baseman/first baseman Miguel Cabrera as our #1 third baseman, as he is still eligible at third in most leagues, while the NFBC did not reflect him in their third base ADP rankings. After Miggy, the next six third baseman are ranked in the same order, so there is plenty of agreement there.

But, that is where the agreement ends and the disagreements begin, save the ranking for Kyle Seager and Matt Davidson. The Fake Teams writers are higher on Pablo Sandoval and Chris Johnson and lower on virtually every one else.

The largest discrepancies are in the rankings for Aramis Ramirez and Martin Prado. Frankly, I agree with the NFBC ranking as I ranked ARam as my 10th ranked fantasy third baseman in 2014. I also think the NFBC is too high on Martin Prado and Manny Machado, as Prado, while very good, doesn't hit for near enough power for me, and I don't see how Machado can be ranked ahead of some of the third baseman ranked below him.

If you are looking for some value plays at third base on draft day, grabbing Aramis Ramirez in the 10th round is solid value. I think his ranking is taking a hit due to age and injury concerns. Another value play is Braves third baseman Chris Johnson in the 17th round, as he will hit low digit home runs along with a high batting average which is sustainable due to his propensity to hit line drives.

I have seen Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre get picked in the first round of 13 and 15 team mock drafts, and that shouldn't surprise anyone. If healthy, he is a virtual guarantee to hit .290-.300 with 30 home runs and 90-100 RBI, with two on base machines in Shin-Soo Choo and Prince Fielder ahead of him in the Rangers lineup.

NFBC ADP Rankings-Third Base

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