Consensus Position Rankings/Projections: Top 30 Shortstops for 2014, Part 1

Alex Kantecki opened Shortstop week here at Fake Teams with the fantasy state of the position earlier this morning. Now we bring you our consensus fantasy shortstop rankings for 2014. We used a points system for each of the 30 shortstops ranked by each of the Fake Teams writers who participated in the consensus rankings series.

We feel that providing you our consensus position rankings, you get an average ranking from the Fake Teams writers, rather than hearing me spew my rankings nonsense throughout the offseason. You will see some players ranked higher by one Fake Teams writer than the others, so this helps the reader see both sides of the argument for/against a certain player who might be getting too much love this offseason.

Each of the position rankings will be split into two parts, rankings, player profiles and projections for shortstops ranked 1 - 15 in part 1, and rankings, player profiles and projections for shortstops ranked 16 - 30 in part 2 to be published on Wednesday morning. Consensus rankings should bring about discussion amongst you, our readers, and the Fake Teams writers who participated in this series.

In addition to the rankings, we are now offering your 2014 projections for each player ranked, courtesy of Dan Schwartz from Fake Teams and Rotobanter. He has spent all offseason on his projections, and to learn more about how he calculates his projections, you can read his explanations here: Part 1| Part 2| Part 3. Part 1 details his projection approach, Part 2 details how he calculates his hitter projections and part 3 details how he calculates his pitcher projections.

We didn't stop at just providing you rankings and projections, as we are also providing you with auction values, courtesy of Dan, along with the Equivalent Fantasy Average for each player ranked, courtesy of Daniel Kelley. The equivalent fantasy average can be used to compare players at the same position.

Here is a brief explanation of Equivalent Fantasy Average, from Daniel's Fantasy Average Positional Breakdown piece a few weeks ago:

Those who have been around the last week or two probably saw my Fantasy Average piece, in which I attempted to use standard deviations to present every offensive players' fantasy contributions in terms of a batting average-like number. That presentation is a useful ranking tool and, since it's on a scale we're all familiar with, is a heck of a shorthand for overall strength. If your guy hit ".300" by Fantasy Average, he's a heck of a player.

And all of this is consolidated, with player photos, into statistical tables thanks to the work of Jason Hunt.

2014 Shortstop Rankings

Now let's take a look at part 1 of our Top 30 Fantasy Shortstop Rankings for 2014:

Rank	Player	Team	Ranking Points	Ray	Matt	Brian	Alex	Daniel	Joe	Jason	Zack
1	Hanley Ramirez	LAD	254	1	1	1	1	2	1	2	1
2	Troy Tulowitzki	COL	250	2	2	2	2	1	2	1	2
3	Ian Desmond	WSN	231	3	6	7	3	3	4	4	3
4	Jose Reyes	TOR	229	4	4	3	6	5	3	5	5
5	Jean Segura	MIL	221	5	3	8	4	9	5	3	6
6	Elvis Andrus	TEX	213	11	5	4	5	4	9	9	4
7	J.J. Hardy	BAL	190	6	10	13	10	10	10	7	8
8	Starlin Castro	CHC	188	7	11	10	9	11	8	10	10
9	Ben Zobrist	TBR	184	9	7	5	7	7	6	6
10	Everth Cabrera	SDP	183	12	8	9	8	8	14	15	7
11	Jed Lowrie	OAK	172	10	16	11	14	12	7	13	9
12	Xander Bogaerts	BOS	162	8	9	6	13	14	11	8
13	Andrelton Simmons	ATL	161	13	13	14	11	16	12	12	12
14	Asdrubal Cabrera	CLE	149	19	14	15	12	13	13	18	11
15	Alexei Ramirez	CHW	141	15	15	12	20	15	17	11	18

Player Profiles

	# 1 Hanley Ramirez (LAD)
Photo Credit: Rick Scuteri - USA Today Sports

2013 FANTASY STATISTICS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.345	62	20	57	10
2013 SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
336	0.402	0.638	8.03%	15.47%
2014 ROTOBANTER PROJECTIONS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.292	75	20	71	14
Auction Value: $ 15.45		Equivalent Fantasy Average: 0.281

I was high on Ramirez heading into the 2013 season and he did not disappoint, hitting .345-.402-.638 with 20 HRs, 62 runs, 57 RBI and 10 stolen bases in just 86 games. In those 86 games, he put up a 5.1 WAR, which ranked 25^th in baseball, despite missing almost half of the season. His 192 wRC+ ranked second in the game, only behind Miguel Cabrera, and ahead of Mike Trout's 176 wRC+.

Ramirez looked like the player we all adored back in 2007-2010, when he was the best fantasy shortstop and a perennial first round pick. I said this a few times her, but as a Dodgers fan who watches a lot of their games, he appears to be a much different player in Los Angeles than he was in his last two seasons in Miami. He is much happier and motivated on the field, and is now not the focal point in the Dodgers' lineup like he was in Miami. The pressure to perform is off of his shoulders, and maybe that is exactly what he needed to become the player he was four years ago.

Looking at his batted ball data shows that his line drive rate (22.0%) was the highest of his career, as was his 21.1% HR/FB%, so we should expect some regression in both of those rates. As a result, Hanley's batting average will drop from the .345 level from last season, and he may not hit home runs at the 35+ pace he was on last season, but I expect another solid season from our #1 consensus shortstop for 2014. I see him hitting in the .280-290 range with 20-25 HRs, 80-90 runs and RBI and 20 stolen bases. With that said, he is an injury risk based on his history.

	# 2 Troy Tulowitzki (COL)
Photo Credit: Rick Scuteri - USA Today Sports

2013 FANTASY STATISTICS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.312	72	25	82	1
2013 SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
512	0.391	0.54	11.13%	16.60%
2014 ROTOBANTER PROJECTIONS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.296	79	26	91	2
Auction Value: $ 19.49		Equivalent Fantasy Average: 0.286

Tulo is one of the top fantasy producers at the shortstop position and a legitimate argument can be made that he is STILL the #1 fantasy shortstop. Last season, Tulo hit .312-.391-.540 with 25 HRs, 72 runs, 82 RBI and just one stolen base, and there lies the beef with ranking him at #1. He doesn't run anymore, which makes sense because he isn't one to stay off the disabled list. Over the last four seasons, he has missed 40, 19, 115 and 35 games, so injuries seem to find Tulowitzki every season now, and he isn't getting any younger. But, when he is healthy, he is very productive, still capable of putting up a 30 HR, 90 run, 100 RBI, .300 season.

His batted ball profile hasn't changed much over his career, with a bump in line drive rate and HR/FB% last year, and a reduction in ground balls resulting in the bump in batting average, but any way you slice it, the guys can still hit and will continue to do so barring a serious injury. Like Hanley, he is an injury risk, which is a consideration on draft day.

	# 3 Ian Desmond (WSN)
Photo Credit: Brad Barr - USA Today Sports

2013 FANTASY STATISTICS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.28	77	20	80	21
2013 SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
655	0.331	0.453	6.56%	22.14%
2014 ROTOBANTER PROJECTIONS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.273	78	23	76	19
Auction Value: $ 16.83		Equivalent Fantasy Average: 0.283

I was a non-believer in Desmond repeating his breakout 2012 season, but he did just that in 2013, hitting .280-.331-.453 with 20 HRs, 77 runs, 80 RBI and 21 stolen bases. His home runs dropped by five and his batting average by .012, but he increased his runs scored and RBI while maintaining his stolen base total from 2012. He should be looked upon as the #3 fantasy shortstop after the top two, but one can make the case that he doesn't come with as much risk as Hanley and Tulo bring. Desmond was one of nine hitters to put up a 20 home run, 20 stolen base season in 2013, so there is lots of value in that, especially coming from a shortstop.

Desmond was pretty consistent last season, hitting righties as well as lefties, and hitting .281 or higher in four of six months. He actually hit 16 of his 20 home runs off of right-handed pitchers, so there are no platoon issues with him. His HR/FB% dropped from 18% to 13% last season, and he hit more line drives at the expense of ground balls, so there is a chance that one can be comfortable projecting a .280-.290 batting average with 17-20 home runs again in 2014. Over the last two seasons, Desmond has stolen 42 bases in 54 attempts, so he will continue to get the green light when on first base.

	# 4 Jose Reyes (TOR)
Photo Credit: Derick E. Hingle - USA Today Sports

2013 FANTASY STATISTICS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.296	58	10	37	15
2013 SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
419	0.353	0.427	8.11%	11.22%
2014 ROTOBANTER PROJECTIONS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.295	88	14	53	27
Auction Value: $ 17.53		Equivalent Fantasy Average: 0.283

Reyes was once one of the first two shortstops off draft boards several years ago, but that is no longer the case. With guys like Ian Desmond and Jean Segura coming into their own the last season or two, Reyes keeps creeping down the shortstop rankings. Last season, Reyes played in 93 games, hitting .296-.353-.427 with 10 HRs, 58 runs 37 RBI and 15 stolen bases, so he was very productive when healthy.

Once a 40+ stolen base guy, one has to wonder if we have seen the last of the 40 stolen base seasons from him, as he attempted just 21 stolen bases in 93 games last season. He injured his ankle sliding into second base last season, and attempted just 16 stolen bases over the last three months of the 2013 season, so he may have made a conscious decision not to run as much after the injury.

Between Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki and Reyes, there is a plenty of risk at the top of the shortstop rankings. Reyes has played more than 133 games just once since 2008. Since 2008 he has played 36, 133, 126, 160 and 93 games, so presents a health risk to his owners on draft day. Assuming good health, Reyes is capable of 12-15 home runs, 90 runs, 60 RBi and 25+ stolen bases in 2014.

	# 5 Jean Segura (MIL)
Photo Credit: Jake Roth - USA Today Sports

2013 FANTASY STATISTICS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.294	74	12	49	44
2013 SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
623	0.329	0.423	4.01%	13.48%
2014 ROTOBANTER PROJECTIONS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.28	82	10	58	35
Auction Value: $ 15.61		Equivalent Fantasy Average: 0.280

Segura started the 2013 on fire, hitting .367 in April and .345 in May, but as you can see from the stats below, he struggled as the season got longer:

April: .367-.418-.567

May: .345-.373-.538

June: .277-.296-.429

July: .281-.327-.343

August: .252-.271-.313

Sept.: .214-.267-.286

That was some drop off in the second half. Even with the huge second half decline, Segura still managed to hit .294-.329-.423 with 12 HRs, 74 runs, 49 RBI and 44 stolen bases, which makes him a very valuable fantasy shortstop. He doesn't hit a lot of fly balls, but he should be able to run into low digit home runs hitting in Miller Park 81 times a season. He hits plenty of ground balls, so he must continue to use his speed to beat out infield hits from time to time to keep his average up. His line drive rate improved to 185 from 15% last season, providing support for the average to stay in the .270-.280 range.

With Ryan Braun returning from suspension, along with a healthy Aramis Ramirez, we could see Segura score 90 runs in 2014, and he should continue to get the green light on the base paths with Ron Roenicke still managing the team.

	# 6 Elvis Andrus (TEX)
Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas - USA Today Sports

2013 FANTASY STATISTICS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.271	91	4	67	42
2013 SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
698	0.328	0.331	7.45%	13.90%
2014 ROTOBANTER PROJECTIONS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.277	88	4	61	38
Auction Value: $ 15.24		Equivalent Fantasy Average: 0.280

Andrus has been in the big leagues for five years now, and in those five years, he is more known for his fielding than his bat. More than likely that is due to the fact that he has zero power. Well, he does hit home runs, but just not that many. In addition to have a great glove and very little power, Andrus has solid plate discipline, limiting his strike outs to around 13-14% of his plate appearances and walk at around a 7-8% rate. His greatest skill for fantasy owners is his speed on the base paths.

He has averaged 33 stolen bases per season in his career, but last year he stole a career high 42 bases, as manager Ron Washington gave his team the green light quite a bit. Whether that will continue is anyone's guess. My guess is that it will, as Andrus was successful in 42 of his 50 stolen base attempts last season. This season, I expect him to hit in the .275 range with 80-90 runs and 35+ stolen bases.

	# 7 J.J. Hardy (BAL)
Photo Credit: Derick E. Hingle - USA Today Sports

2013 FANTASY STATISTICS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.263	66	25	76	2
2013 SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
644	0.306	0.433	5.90%	11.34%
2014 ROTOBANTER PROJECTIONS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.253	61	21	67	1
Auction Value: $ 3.64		Equivalent Fantasy Average: 0.265

I have to be honest, if I miss out on any of the top 5-6 shortstops in drafts this year, I would be perfectly happy landing Hardy as my shortstop. Hardy is known for his great glove, but he is one of the more consistent hitters in fantasy in terms of production. He is a low walk, low strikeout, high contact hitter who will hit .250-.265 in most years, but the power is why he is so valuable.

Hardy has hit 22 or more home runs in five of his seven seasons in the big leagues, and has hit 77 home runs over the last three seasons, ranking tied for 24^th in baseball over that period of time. The 77 home runs are 14 more than Troy Tulowitzki has hit over the last three years, and his 224 RBI are tied with Asdrubal Cabrera for most RBI among shortstops over the last three seasons.

I think we can expect another .260 BA, 25 HRs, 70 RBI and 70 runs from Hardy in 2014.

	# 8 Starlin Castro (CHC)
Photo Credit: Jake Roth - USA Today Sports

2013 FANTASY STATISTICS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.245	59	10	44	9
2013 SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
705	0.284	0.347	4.26%	18.30%
2014 ROTOBANTER PROJECTIONS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.276	75	13	59	14
Auction Value: $ 9.42		Equivalent Fantasy Average: 0.272

Castro endured his worst season as a big leaguer last year, hitting just .245-.284-.347 with 10 HRs, 59 runs, 44 RBI and 9 stolen bases in 161 games. Unlike some of the shortstops ranked ahead of him, Castro does not come with injury risk, as he has missed just five games over the last three seasons.

What led to his disappointing season? There were reports that the Cubs coaching staff were working with Castro to change his approach at the plate, being less aggressive and swinging only at pitches in his zone. Well, if true, it didn't work out too well, so I imagine the Cubs coaching staff under new manager Rich Renteria will allow him to return to his free swinging ways. If they can get him to loft the ball more, and reduce the number of ground balls he hits, we could see a few more home runs from Castro in 2014.

Castro is one of my favorite bounce back candidates in 2014, as I see him returning to the .290-.300 hitter he was prior to 2013.

	# 9 Ben Zobrist (TBR)
Photo Credit: Kim Klement - USA Today Sports

2013 FANTASY STATISTICS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.275	77	12	71	11
2013 SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
698	0.354	0.402	10.32%	13.04%
2014 ROTOBANTER PROJECTIONS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.267	81	15	74	11
Auction Value: $ 11.71		Equivalent Fantasy Average: 0.275

Zobrist had a bit of a down year at the plate in 2013, hitting .275-.354-.402 with 12 HRs, 77 runs, 71 RBI and 11 stolen bases in 14 attempts. We saw his home runs, runs scored, RBI and stolen base totals drop in 2013, and his power, as measured by slugging percentage and isolated power, was down in a big way. Zobrist saw his ISO drop from .202 to .127, while his SL dropped from .471 to .402.

We have seen this before from Zobrist, as his ISO experienced an extreme drop back in 2010, from .246 to .115, only to bounce back to the .200 level in 2011. The main culprit for the power drop was a huge drop in his HR/FB% from 12.5% to 6.1%. I see the power returning in 2014, but don't expect another 20 home run season from him.

	# 10 Everth Cabrera (SDP)
Photo Credit: Rick Scuteri - USA Today Sports

2013 FANTASY STATISTICS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.283	54	4	31	37
2013 SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
435	0.355	0.381	9.43%	15.86%
2014 ROTOBANTER PROJECTIONS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.257	76	4	43	51
Auction Value: $ 10.08		Equivalent Fantasy Average: 0.274

ECab was well on his way to a career year last year before he was suspended for his involvement with Biogenesis. Cabrera hit .283-.355-.381 with 4 HRs, 54 runs, 31 RBI and 37 stolen bases in 49 attempts in just 95 games. If you are looking for a stolen base guy at the shortstop position in your drafts this year, he is your guy. He has 50 stolen base potential, as he attempted 49 stolen bases in the 125 times he made it to first base last season (84 singles and 41 walks). So he has the green light from manager Bud Black. The Padres have difficulty scoring runs and Cabrera on second base increases their chances of scoring runs.

Cabrera puts the ball on the ground at a 60% clip, so he can utilize his speed. He also hits line drives at a 20% clip, so he should be able to maintain an average in the .260-.270 range in 2014. His .337 batting average of balls in play was not far above his .324 career BABIP, so we should expect some regression in his batting average and on base percentage, but not much.

	# 11 Jed Lowrie (OAK)
Photo Credit: Kyle Terada - USA Today Sports

2013 FANTASY STATISTICS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.29	80	15	75	1
2013 SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
662	0.344	0.446	7.55%	13.75%
2014 ROTOBANTER PROJECTIONS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.273	74	15	73	2
Auction Value: $ 8.09		Equivalent Fantasy Average: 0.270

I wrote about Lowrie in our second base rankings here.

	# 12 Xander Bogaerts (BOS)
Photo Credit: Steve Mitchell - USA Today Sports

2013 FANTASY STATISTICS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.25	7	1	5	1
2013 SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
50	0.32	0.364	10.00%	26.00%
2014 ROTOBANTER PROJECTIONS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.265	72	14	69	5
Auction Value: $ 6.43		Equivalent Fantasy Average: 0.268

I own Bogaerts in an AL only keeper league and have a pretty big man crush on him. Good, now that I got that out of the way, let's take a look at what he can do for you in 2014.

I originally had him ranked as my #5 fantasy shortstop but moved him down to # 8 behind J.J. Hardy, who is one of the more consistent fantasy performers at shortstop, and Starlin Castro, who I think will rebound in 2014. Bogaerts gave us a glimpse into his future in the playoffs and World Series last year, showing the plate discipline of a veteran. Bogaerts has all the tools to be the #1 fantasy shortstop in due time, assuming he plays enough games at shortstop. It all depends whether the Red Sox will sign Stephen Drew or not.

Bogaerts has the bat to hit 15-20 home runs this season and to hit .260-.275 in his rookie season. He is the #1 fantasy prospect for 2014 right now, and should be drafted as a top 10-12 shortstop on draft day.

	# 13 Andrelton Simmons (ATL)
Photo Credit: Kim Klement - USA Today Sports

2013 FANTASY STATISTICS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.248	76	17	59	6
2013 SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
658	0.296	0.396	6.08%	8.36%
2014 ROTOBANTER PROJECTIONS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.269	86	18	60	6
Auction Value: $ 9.88		Equivalent Fantasy Average: 0.273

Simmons surprised most fantasy owners by hitting 17 home runs last season. Last season, he hit just .248-.296-.396 with 17 HRs, 76 runs, 59 RBI and 6 stolen bases in 157 games. His batting average was brought down by a low .247 batting average of balls in play, so there is a chance he was unlucky last season and we could see his average in the .260 range, or higher.

Known for his elite glove at shortstop, his fantasy value is based on how much power he produces, and if he can improve upon his low batting average last season. To do so, he will have to improve his 17-18% infield fly ball rate. If he can turn some of them into line drives, we could see the batting average improve along with 12-17 home runs in 2014.

	# 14 Asdrubal Cabrera (CLE)
Photo Credit: Jake Roth - USA Today Sports

2013 FANTASY STATISTICS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.242	66	14	64	9
2013 SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
562	0.299	0.402	6.23%	20.28%
2014 ROTOBANTER PROJECTIONS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.263	69	17	68	9
Auction Value: $ 7.6		Equivalent Fantasy Average: 0.270

It seems odd to rank Cabrera so low, but he has not been able to duplicate his breakout 2011 season, where he hit 25 home runs, scored 87 runs with 92 RBI and 17 stolen bases. Since then we have seen his numbers drop across the board in each of the last two seasons, with his power dropping from 25 home runs and 32 doubles, to 16 HRs/35 doubles in 2012, and 14 HRs/35 doubles last season. I think he has settled into a mid-teens home run hitter, capable of hitting .250-.260 with 60-70 runs and RBI and 7-10 stolen bases.

He hits enough line drives (23%) that we could see his average jump back into the .270 range next season. He struggled hitting at home last season, hitting just .209 vs .276 on the road, after hitting .264 and .286 at home in each of the last two seasons, so there is another reason for his batting average to improve next season.

	# 15 Alexei Ramirez (CHW)
Photo Credit: Kyle Terada - USA Today Sports

2013 FANTASY STATISTICS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.284	68	6	48	30
2013 SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
674	0.313	0.38	3.86%	10.09%
2014 ROTOBANTER PROJECTIONS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.264	68	6	52	21
Auction Value: $ 3.61		Equivalent Fantasy Average: 0.265

What happened to Alexei's power last season? Ok, the last two seasons. Ramirez went from being a regular 15-18 home run hitter to hitting just 15 homes runs over the last two seasons combined. Fortunately, he has improved on the base paths, stealing 20 bases in 2012 and 30 bases in 2013.

Last season, he hit 284-.313-.380 with 6 HRs, 68 runs, 48 RBI and 30 stolen bases in 39 attempts. Over the last few seasons, we have seen him change his approach at the plate, hitting more line drives and less fly balls resulting in his highest batting average since he hit .290 in 2008. The fact that he has changed from a power hitter to more of a contact hitter and speed threat is not a bad thing. He still has value if he can continue to steal 20-30 bases this season.

Fantasy Rundown

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