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This piece is a follow up to a similar research piece I wrote last offseason where I looked at starting pitchers who threw more than 50 innings in 2014, focusing on the following pitching statistics:
- strikeouts per nine innings
- walks per nine innings
- ground ball ratio
I focused on pitchers who struck out more than seven batters and walked three batters or less per nine innings, and induce ground balls at a 45% rate or higher. My research from last year indicated that focusing on high strikeout pitchers yielded the best results in ERA and WHIP. I think this is common knowledge in the baseball and fantasy baseball community, but here I provide the actual results, starting with pitcher who struck out seven or more batters per nine innings:
Pitchers with K/9 > 7.00, BB/9 < 3.00 and GB% > 45%
Name |
Team |
W |
ERA |
IP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
GB% |
WHIP |
FIP |
xFIP |
Jose Fernandez |
4 |
2.44 |
51.2 |
12.19 |
2.26 |
48.80% |
0.95 |
2.18 |
2.18 |
|
Clayton Kershaw |
21 |
1.77 |
198.1 |
10.85 |
1.41 |
51.80% |
0.86 |
1.81 |
2.08 |
|
Corey Kluber |
18 |
2.44 |
235.2 |
10.27 |
1.95 |
48.00% |
1.09 |
2.35 |
2.57 |
|
Stephen Strasburg |
14 |
3.14 |
215 |
10.13 |
1.8 |
45.90% |
1.12 |
2.94 |
2.56 |
|
Carlos Carrasco |
Indians |
5 |
2.67 |
91 |
9.99 |
1.98 |
50.40% |
0.98 |
2.21 |
2.52 |
Jake Arrieta |
10 |
2.53 |
156.2 |
9.59 |
2.36 |
49.20% |
0.99 |
2.26 |
2.73 |
|
Felix Hernandez |
15 |
2.14 |
236 |
9.46 |
1.75 |
56.20% |
0.92 |
2.56 |
2.51 |
|
Masahiro Tanaka |
13 |
2.77 |
136.1 |
9.31 |
1.39 |
46.60% |
1.06 |
3.04 |
2.58 |
|
Jacob deGrom |
9 |
2.69 |
140.1 |
9.24 |
2.76 |
45.40% |
1.14 |
2.67 |
3.03 |
|
Zack Greinke |
Dodgers |
17 |
2.71 |
202.1 |
9.21 |
1.91 |
48.70% |
1.15 |
2.97 |
2.72 |
Shane Greene |
Yankees |
5 |
3.79 |
78.1 |
9.19 |
2.99 |
50.00% |
1.37 |
3.64 |
3.31 |
Gerrit Cole |
11 |
3.65 |
138 |
9 |
2.61 |
49.20% |
1.21 |
3.23 |
3.25 |
|
Johnny Cueto |
20 |
2.25 |
243.2 |
8.94 |
2.4 |
46.20% |
0.96 |
3.3 |
3.21 |
|
Garrett Richards |
13 |
2.61 |
168.2 |
8.75 |
2.72 |
50.90% |
1.04 |
2.6 |
3.15 |
|
Cole Hamels |
9 |
2.46 |
204.2 |
8.71 |
2.59 |
46.40% |
1.15 |
3.07 |
3.21 |
|
Alex Wood |
8 |
2.59 |
156.1 |
8.69 |
2.25 |
45.90% |
1.09 |
3.23 |
3.23 |
|
Jeff Samardzija |
A's |
7 |
2.99 |
219.2 |
8.28 |
1.76 |
50.20% |
1.07 |
3.2 |
3.07 |
Hyun-Jin Ryu |
Dodgers |
14 |
3.38 |
152 |
8.23 |
1.72 |
47.40% |
1.19 |
2.62 |
3.03 |
Alex Cobb |
10 |
2.87 |
166.1 |
8.06 |
2.54 |
56.20% |
1.14 |
3.23 |
3.33 |
|
Cliff Lee |
Phillies |
4 |
3.65 |
81.1 |
7.97 |
1.33 |
48.40% |
1.38 |
2.96 |
3.01 |
Brandon McCarthy |
Yankees |
10 |
4.05 |
200 |
7.88 |
1.49 |
52.60% |
1.28 |
3.55 |
2.87 |
Hisashi Iwakuma |
Mariners |
15 |
3.52 |
179 |
7.74 |
1.06 |
50.20% |
1.05 |
3.25 |
2.85 |
Marcus Stroman |
10 |
3.29 |
120.1 |
7.7 |
2.02 |
53.70% |
1.15 |
2.79 |
3.16 |
|
Homer Bailey |
Reds |
9 |
3.71 |
145.2 |
7.66 |
2.78 |
50.60% |
1.23 |
3.93 |
3.53 |
Gavin Floyd |
Braves |
2 |
2.65 |
54.1 |
7.45 |
2.15 |
49.40% |
1.25 |
3.79 |
3.47 |
Jimmy Nelson |
2 |
4.76 |
68 |
7.41 |
2.51 |
48.60% |
1.4 |
3.82 |
3.93 |
|
Anibal Sanchez |
8 |
3.46 |
125 |
7.34 |
2.16 |
45.40% |
1.1 |
2.71 |
3.56 |
|
James Shields |
14 |
3.21 |
227 |
7.14 |
1.74 |
45.20% |
1.18 |
3.59 |
3.56 |
|
T.J. House |
Indians |
5 |
3.39 |
101 |
7.13 |
1.96 |
60.50% |
1.34 |
3.7 |
3.09 |
Adam Wainwright |
20 |
2.38 |
227 |
7.1 |
1.98 |
46.30% |
1.03 |
2.88 |
3.34 |
|
Average |
3.34 |
1693.6 |
7.54 |
1.93 |
1.22 |
The above filter yields a list of starting pitchers that averaged an ERA of 3.34 and WHIP of 1.22. Good to very good ERA, and solid WHIP. Let's see what happens when we improve the filter to starting pitchers who struck out at least eight batters per nine innings, keeping the walks per nine and ground ball rate constant:
Pitchers with K/9 > 8.00, BB/9 < 3.00 and GB% > 45%
Name |
Team |
W |
ERA |
IP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
GB% |
WHIP |
FIP |
xFIP |
Felix Hernandez |
Mariners |
15 |
2.14 |
236 |
9.46 |
1.75 |
56.20% |
0.92 |
2.56 |
2.51 |
Alex Cobb |
Rays |
10 |
2.87 |
166.1 |
8.06 |
2.54 |
56.20% |
1.14 |
3.23 |
3.33 |
Clayton Kershaw |
Dodgers |
21 |
1.77 |
198.1 |
10.85 |
1.41 |
51.80% |
0.86 |
1.81 |
2.08 |
Garrett Richards |
Angels |
13 |
2.61 |
168.2 |
8.75 |
2.72 |
50.90% |
1.04 |
2.6 |
3.15 |
Carlos Carrasco |
Indians |
5 |
2.67 |
91 |
9.99 |
1.98 |
50.40% |
0.98 |
2.21 |
2.52 |
Jeff Samardzija |
A's |
7 |
2.99 |
219.2 |
8.28 |
1.76 |
50.20% |
1.07 |
3.2 |
3.07 |
Shane Greene |
Yankees |
5 |
3.79 |
78.1 |
9.19 |
2.99 |
50.00% |
1.37 |
3.64 |
3.31 |
Jake Arrieta |
Cubs |
10 |
2.53 |
156.2 |
9.59 |
2.36 |
49.20% |
0.99 |
2.26 |
2.73 |
Gerrit Cole |
Pirates |
11 |
3.65 |
138 |
9.00 |
2.61 |
49.20% |
1.21 |
3.23 |
3.25 |
Jose Fernandez |
Marlins |
4 |
2.44 |
51.2 |
12.19 |
2.26 |
48.80% |
0.95 |
2.18 |
2.18 |
Zack Greinke |
Dodgers |
17 |
2.71 |
202.1 |
9.21 |
1.91 |
48.70% |
1.15 |
2.97 |
2.72 |
Corey Kluber |
Indians |
18 |
2.44 |
235.2 |
10.27 |
1.95 |
48.00% |
1.09 |
2.35 |
2.57 |
Hyun-Jin Ryu |
Dodgers |
14 |
3.38 |
152 |
8.23 |
1.72 |
47.40% |
1.19 |
2.62 |
3.03 |
Masahiro Tanaka |
Yankees |
13 |
2.77 |
136.1 |
9.31 |
1.39 |
46.60% |
1.06 |
3.04 |
2.58 |
Cole Hamels |
Phillies |
9 |
2.46 |
204.2 |
8.71 |
2.59 |
46.40% |
1.15 |
3.07 |
3.21 |
Johnny Cueto |
Reds |
20 |
2.25 |
243.2 |
8.94 |
2.40 |
46.20% |
0.96 |
3.3 |
3.21 |
Stephen Strasburg |
Nationals |
14 |
3.14 |
215 |
10.13 |
1.80 |
45.90% |
1.12 |
2.94 |
2.56 |
Alex Wood |
Braves |
8 |
2.59 |
156.1 |
8.69 |
2.25 |
45.90% |
1.09 |
3.23 |
3.23 |
Jacob deGrom |
Mets |
9 |
2.69 |
140.1 |
9.24 |
2.76 |
45.40% |
1.14 |
2.67 |
3.03 |
Average |
2.74 |
2029.4 |
9.35 |
2.16 |
1.13 |
This filter yeilds some of the top starting pitchers in the game, along with a few pitchers, Jake Arrieta, Jacob deGrom, Alex Wood, Shane Greene and Carlos Carrasco, who pitched great in 2014, yet own a limited track record of success.
Carrasco, Wood, Arrieta and deGrom will get plenty of love from the fantasy community this offseason, and for good reason. I am not sold on Greene yet. Some think deGrom, Carrasco and Arrieta have made changes that are repeatable, so we can expect more of the same in 2015, while some are still skeptical of Wood.
The above list of starters provided an average ERA of 2.74 and a 1.13 WHIP, ace-like stats. Now, let's limit our universe of starters to pitchers who struck out nine or more batters, while leaving the walks per nine and ground ball rate constant once again:
Pitchers with K/9 > 9.00, BB/9 < 3.00 and GB% > 45%
Name |
Team |
W |
ERA |
IP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
GB% |
WHIP |
FIP |
xFIP |
Felix Hernandez |
Mariners |
15 |
2.14 |
236 |
9.46 |
1.75 |
56.20% |
0.92 |
2.56 |
2.51 |
Clayton Kershaw |
Dodgers |
21 |
1.77 |
198.1 |
10.85 |
1.41 |
51.80% |
0.86 |
1.81 |
2.08 |
Carlos Carrasco |
Indians |
5 |
2.67 |
91 |
9.99 |
1.98 |
50.40% |
0.98 |
2.21 |
2.52 |
Shane Greene |
Yankees |
5 |
3.79 |
78.1 |
9.19 |
2.99 |
50.00% |
1.37 |
3.64 |
3.31 |
Jake Arrieta |
Cubs |
10 |
2.53 |
156.2 |
9.59 |
2.36 |
49.20% |
0.99 |
2.26 |
2.73 |
Gerrit Cole |
Pirates |
11 |
3.65 |
138 |
9 |
2.61 |
49.20% |
1.21 |
3.23 |
3.25 |
Jose Fernandez |
Marlins |
4 |
2.44 |
51.2 |
12.19 |
2.26 |
48.80% |
0.95 |
2.18 |
2.18 |
Zack Greinke |
Dodgers |
17 |
2.71 |
202.1 |
9.21 |
1.91 |
48.70% |
1.15 |
2.97 |
2.72 |
Corey Kluber |
Indians |
18 |
2.44 |
235.2 |
10.27 |
1.95 |
48.00% |
1.09 |
2.35 |
2.57 |
Masahiro Tanaka |
Yankees |
13 |
2.77 |
136.1 |
9.31 |
1.39 |
46.60% |
1.06 |
3.04 |
2.58 |
Stephen Strasburg |
Nationals |
14 |
3.14 |
215 |
10.13 |
1.8 |
45.90% |
1.12 |
2.94 |
2.56 |
Jacob deGrom |
Mets |
9 |
2.69 |
140.1 |
9.24 |
2.76 |
45.40% |
1.14 |
2.67 |
3.03 |
Average |
2.65 |
1877.1 |
9.81 |
2.00 |
1.08 |
As you can see from the list above, there aren't many starting pitchers in baseball who struck out more than nine batters per nine innings in 2014, twelve to be exact. The list includes several of the starters I discussed above, which bodes well for a repeat in 2015. But, then again, nothing is guaranteed in baseball. Injuries, reported or not, can affect the performance of any pitcher in the game.
The refined filter produces an average ERA of 2.65 and a WHIP of 1.08. These are elite level stats for any starting pitcher. The performance of Clayton Kershaw and Felix Hernandez certainly influence the performance of the set of pitchers in the list above, but you can see that pitchers who possess the ability to keep the ball on the ground, limit the free pass and strike out batters at an above league average rate can help your fake baseball rosters in the pitching categories.
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