Fantasy Baseball: Early Top 30 First Base Rankings for 2015

Today, I continue with my early 2015 position rankings, ranking my Top 30 first baseman for next season. Yeah, it is early for rankings, and we have yet to see any free agent signings or offseason trades, so my rankings may change as a result. But, for now, here are my 2015 first base rankings, assuming any offseason free agent signings or trades won't have a material impact on my rankings.

Before we get into my first base rankings, here is a link to my 2015 catcher rankings:

Top 30 Catchers for 2015

There is no question who the top fantasy first baseman is for 2015, Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera. But he comes with some minor concerns. He had a terrific 2014 season, but it was his worst season in the power department in quite some time. Injuries certainly had something to do with the drop in power, so I will give the game's best hitter the benefit of the doubt here. Assuming good health in 2015, he should be the top first baseman off the board and a top 3-4 pick in all drafts.

Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt had his season cut short in 2014, but he should be healthy in 2015, and should return to be the 30 home run, 100 RBI, .300 hitter he was in 2013. Following Goldschmidt is the guy who could lead the majors in home runs, or at least the American League, if he can stay healthy, Blue Jays power hitter Edwin Encarnacion. He played in just 128 games, but still hit 34 home runs and drove in 98 runs, so if you were to tell me you wanted to rank Encarnacion ahead of Goldschmidt, I wouldn't argue. I may even move him up in future rankings.

I have included several hitters that qualify at other positions in my rankings, including several designated hitters - Red Sox DH David Ortiz, Astros DH Chris Carter, and Tigers DH Victor Martinez, Giants catcher Buster Posey, and Reds third baseman Todd Frazier. They all played 20 or more games at first base in 2014, making them  eligible at first base in 2015. In the case of the designated hitters, I don't rank them since there are so few full-time DHs, so I included them here.

Below you will find my early 205 Top 30 first base rankings, along with 2014 player stats, courtesy of FanGraphs. Included in the rankings and stats provided below, I have included each players' 2014 wRC+, which is defined below, courtesy of FanGraphs:

Weighted Runs Created (wRC) is an improved version of Bill James' Runs Created (RC) statistic, which attempted to quantify a player's total offensive value and measure it by runs.  In Runs Created, instead of looking at a player's line and listing out all the details (e.g. 23 2B, 15 HR, 55 BB, 110 K, 19 SB, 5 CS), the information is synthesized into one metric in order to say, "Player X was worth 24 runs to his team last year."

Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) measures how a player's wRC compares with league average after controlling for park effects.  League average for position players is 100, and every point above 100 is a percentage point above league average. For example, a 125 wRC+ means a player created 25% more runs than a league average hitter would have in the same number of plate appearances. Similarly, every point below 100 is a percentage point below league average, so a 80 wRC+ means a player created 20% fewer runs than league average.

For example, Jose Abreu's 165 wRC+ indicates he created 65% more runs than the league average hitter, or is 65% better than the league average hitter.

I included wRC+ because I think, along with others, that it is one of the single stats you can look at to tell you how good a hitter is vs all major league hitters, and it factors in park effects as well.

The first baseman ranked 14-20 all have a chance at 30+ home runs in 2015, with the exception of Rocking outfielder/first baseman Michael Cuddyer. One player who easily could be ranked much higher here is Rangers first baseman Prince Fielder (ranked 14th). Fielder missed most of the 2014 season due to injury, after a sub-par 2013 season.

Fielder joins Reds first baseman Joey Votto who falls to 13th in my rankings. Fantasy owners want a power hitter when drafting first baseman, but Votto dealt with a bad quad injury last season and saw his home run total drop to 6 in 272 plate appearances. Over the last three seasons, Votto has seen his RBI total drop from 103 in 2011 to 56 in 111 games in 2012, to 73 in 162 games in 2013 to just 23 in 62 games last season. He could come at a bargain in 2015, but the 31 year old first baseman will have to prove he can stay healthy and hit for power to move up in my rankings in the next few seasons.

Fantasy Rundown

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