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Hard hit rate is an excellent stat to use to evaluate both hitters and pitchers because the harder a ball is hit, the more likely it results in strong offensive production. It also gives us an idea of the process behind a player's batting average and OPS.
The following overview is attributed to ESPN's Mark Simon.
Hard hit rate is the percentage of at bats that end in a hard hit ball. It is determined by a video review team using measures like exit velocity, trajectory and contact on the sweet spot.
The average MLB hitter has a hard hit rate of roughly 17%.
Batting average by batted ball type:
Hard: around .700
Medium: around .400
Soft: around .140-.150
% of _ that are hard hit:
Home runs: about 100%
Triples: over 80%
Doubles: over 70%
Singles: about 30%
Outs: about 7%
The top 50 hitters for hard hit rate in 2014 were:
(Name, hard hit rate)
1. Troy Tulowitzki, 24.1%
2. Paul Goldschmidt, 23.7%
3. David Ortiz, 23.7%
4. Miguel Cabrera, 23.3%
5. Devin Mesoraco, 23.3%
6. Victor Martinez, 23.1%
7. Andrew McCutchen, 22.9%
8. Adrian Beltre, 22.9%
9. Edwin Encarnacion, 22.4%
10. Corey Dickerson, 21.8%
11. Lucas Duda, 21.6%
12. Josh Donaldson, 21.4%
13. Albert Pujols, 21.3%
14. Michael Brantley, 21.3%
15. Josh Harrison, 21.2%
16. Evan Gattis, 21%
17. Freddie Freeman, 21%
18. Anthony Rendon, 21%
19. Buster Posey, 20.9%
20. Carlos Santana, 20.6%
21. Jose Bautista, 20.5%
22. Giancarlo Stanton, 20.5%
23. Justin Upton, 20.4%
24. Kyle Seager, 20.4%
25. Mike Trout, 20.3%
26. Josh Reddick, 20.2%
27. Garrett Jones, 20.2%
28. Tori Hunter, 20.1%
29. John Jaso, 20.1%
30. Adrian Gonzalez, 19.9%
31. Jayson Werth, 19.9%
32. Adam LaRoche, 19.9%
33. J.D. Martinez, 19.9%
34. Nolan Arenado, 19.9%
35. Steve Pearce, 19.8%
36. Billy Butler, 19.7%
37. Jose Abreu, 19.6%
38. Khris Davis, 19.5%
39. Dustin Ackley, 19.5%
40. Colby Rasmus, 19.4%
41. Chase Utley, 19.2%
42. Justin Morneau, 19.2%
43. Chris Carter, 19.2%
44. Brian Roberts, 19.1%
45. Jay Bruce, 19.0%
46. Jonathan Lucroy, 18.9%
47. Jed Lowrie, 18.8%
48. Jacoby Ellsbury, 18.7%
49. Logan Morrison, 18.7%
50. Derek Norris, 18.6%
One player that strongly stands out from this list to me is Carlos Santana. Santana's 20.6% hard hit rate, which was 20th best in baseball, combined with his low .249 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which was 5th lowest in baseball, points to a flukey low and unlucky BABIP. The harder a ball is hit the more likely it goes for a hit, so Santana's hard hit rate and low BABIP doesn't add up. (Note: Santana did have an above average infield fly ball (IFFB) rate of 15%; IFFBs are essentially strikeouts put into play, so that also contributed to his low BABIP to some degree.)
A more normal BABIP would give Santana a strong rise in 2015 production. This means a higher batting average, higher OPS, more RBI and more runs scored in 2015. I will be targeting Santana as a player with strong value relative to his probable 2015 draft position and consider him to be an undervalued player going into 2015.