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There's no "way" to win at fantasy baseball. I assume you know that, but it's worth repeating. You can go pitching-heavy, homer-happy, all leadoff hitters, lefties only, limit yourself to just guys from San Pedro da Macoris. If you hit on the right guys, you can win with any of them.
A couple seasons ago, I tried to Moneyball my main league. My list of potential keepers was uninspired, and I knew a few things about my leaguemates - they undervalued saves and steals as fantasy categories (a couple guys literally never owned relievers). In addition to that, I used a very aggressive campaign to get us to move to K/9 over K's, plus a few other moves to rate stats over counting ones.
The result, then, was that I loaded up on guys who were undervalued in the traditional categories. High-OBP guys with steals and runs scored. Homers and RBI were fine if I ended up with them, but I wasn't going that way. And I totally punted on wins, only getting enough starters to meet the innings minimum while grabbing every closer I could, locking up saves while hopefully rolling through the rate categories.
And it would have worked too, if it wasn't for those meddling kids and their dog. (In this case, "those meddling kids and their dog" means "injuries to Joey Votto, Mariano Rivera, Ryan Madson, Brett Gardner, Brandon Beachy, Cory Luebke, Wilson Ramos ..." I lost something like a dozen guys to season-ending injury that season.)
Anyway, the point is that any strategy can work, but you're still always looking for that market inefficiency. Going heavy on the power? You'll probably be fine with like eight different first basemen, but who are you going to use at shortstop? Need steals? Catcher's going to be a tough position for you.
Those who have been around the last week or two probably saw my Fantasy Average piece, in which I attempted to use standard deviations to present every offensive players' fantasy contributions in terms of a batting average-like number. That presentation is a useful ranking tool and, since it's on a scale we're all familiar with, is a heck of a shorthand for overall strength. If your guy hit ".300" by Fantasy Average, he's a heck of a player.
Well, the obvious next step in Fantasy Average - suggested by more than a few on the original piece - was to break it down by position. In my initial calculations, I weighed each player against every offensive player with 400 or more plate appearances. That's all well and good, but how often are you actually considering the prospect of Elvis Andrus vs. Mark Trumbo? No, it's more likely you're wondering whether Jonathan Lucroy or Wilin Rosario is the catcher for you, or if Paul Goldschmidt's well-rounded game does enough to overtake Chris Davis' power.
So I went back and found each player's Fantasy Average against only his position mates, lowering the threshold to 300 plate appearances so as to have sufficient player population to make standard deviations worth considering. I then re-ranked every player by his position-only Fantasy Average.
As you might expect, most players didn't see a huge difference from their overall numbers, particularly the outfielders. Robinson Cano, who puts up good numbers for a generic hitter but great numbers for a second baseman, saw his Fantasy Average climb from .299 to .311, and his overall rank climb from ninth to fifth. Fellow second baseman Jason Kipnis and shortstop Ian Desmond, both of whom supply power numbers at power-starved positions, reached the top 10, as did the leading base-stealer among catchers, Jonathan Lucroy.
Below, I have listed the top 25 at each position (75 in the outfield), and the top 200 overall. Some players played multiple positions and had different Fantasy Averages based on each position; in the top 200, I have listed only each player's highest score.
One note: In addition to being a handy little sorting tool (at least in my opinion), I'm running these pieces as a sort of statistical crowd-sourcing. I'm planning to figure a longer-range (three years, probably) Fantasy Average for regulars, in an effort to track consistency and see if I can offer more predictiveness to the tool. But I'm happy to hear any other critiques/suggestions for fine-tuning the metric as I go. Let's see what we can do with this puppy.
Catcher
This was the position that was probably the most interesting. Catchers, as a rule, just don't produce on a level comparable to many of the other positions - they naturally tend to play fewer games, and they wear down more quickly. But when they are just scaled against one another, the top tend to rise a lot. It was also notable how low Buster Posey - the widely accepted position leader - ranked against his own position mates. It's true 2013 wasn't as good as 2012 for him, but I was still surprised by his low rank.
Rank | Player | Fantasy Average |
1 | Jonathan Lucroy | .301 |
2 | Wilin Rosario | .294 |
3 | Carlos Santana | .290 |
4 | Yadier Molina | .289 |
5 | Jarrod Saltalamacchia | .280 |
6 | Buster Posey | .279 |
7 | Matt Wieters | .277 |
8 | Jason Castro | .274 |
9 | Russell Martin | .273 |
10 | Salvador Perez | .268 |
A.J. Pierzynski | .268 | |
12 | Joe Mauer | .267 |
13 | Evan Gattis | .260 |
14 | Brian McCann | .258 |
15 | Ryan Doumit | .255 |
Yan Gomes | .255 | |
17 | John Buck | .251 |
Wilson Ramos | .251 | |
19 | J.P. Arencibia | .247 |
Derek Norris | .247 | |
21 | Welington Castillo | .244 |
22 | A.J. Ellis | .242 |
23 | Nick Hundley | .240 |
24 | Miguel Montero | .238 |
25 | Alex Avila | .237 |
First Base
The guys who get steals did well here. Paul Goldschmidt and Eric Hosmer - the only first basemen to steal double-digit bases last year - did the best against their own position. For those who are trying a strategy like the one I outlined at the top, guys like Goldschmidt and Hosmer who do something no one else at the position can do offer huge value.
Rank | Player | Fantasy Average |
1 | Paul Goldschmidt | .326 |
2 | Chris Davis | .315 |
3 | Edwin Encarnacion | .296 |
4 | Eric Hosmer | .291 |
5 | Joey Votto | .289 |
6 | Freddie Freeman | .286 |
7 | Mark Trumbo | .280 |
8 | Prince Fielder | .276 |
9 | Brandon Moss | .274 |
10 | Allen Craig | .273 |
11 | Adrian Gonzalez | .272 |
12 | Brandon Belt | .270 |
13 | Mike Napoli | .267 |
Anthony Rizzo | .267 | |
15 | Adam Lind | .264 |
16 | James Loney | .262 |
17 | Chris Carter | .259 |
Adam Dunn | .259 | |
19 | Adam LaRoche | .257 |
20 | Nick Swisher | .256 |
21 | Justin Morneau | .253 |
22 | Mark Reynolds | .249 |
23 | Albert Pujols | .248 |
24 | Matt Adams | .247 |
Yonder Alonso | .247 | |
Mitch Moreland | .247 |
Second Base
Someone like Brandon Phillips, who was blown out of the water in WAR among second basemen, ranking 13th in 2013, does really well in FA, which just takes his gaudy RBI total as a gaudy statistic, so he came in sixth at the position. It's a nice reminder of the difference between fantasy value and real value.
Rank | Player | Fantasy Average |
1 | Robinson Cano | .311 |
2 | Jason Kipnis | .307 |
3 | Matt Carpenter | .299 |
Daniel Murphy | .299 | |
5 | Dustin Pedroia | .295 |
6 | Brandon Phillips | .289 |
7 | Ian Kinsler | .288 |
8 | Chase Utley | .285 |
9 | Jose Altuve | .284 |
10 | Ben Zobrist | .281 |
11 | Brian Dozier | .280 |
12 | Jedd Gyorko | .273 |
Howie Kendrick | .273 | |
14 | Omar Infante | .272 |
15 | Neil Walker | .264 |
16 | Emilio Bonifacio | .261 |
17 | Aaron Hill | .259 |
18 | DJ LeMahieu | .256 |
Dan Uggla | .256 | |
20 | Mark Ellis | .255 |
21 | Marco Scutaro | .254 |
22 | Eric Sogard | .251 |
23 | Nick Franklin | .250 |
24 | Gordon Beckham | .248 |
25 | Daniel Descalso | .247 |
Anthony Rendon | .247 |
Third Base
Miguel Cabrera had the single biggest lead at any position, which makes some level of sense. Even with guys like Adrian Beltre, David Wright, and Evan Longoria (in some order - you rank them, I dare you) at the position, Cabrera as a pure offensive player is pretty unparalleled.
Rank | Position | Fantasy Average |
1 | Miguel Cabrera | .333 |
2 | Adrian Beltre | .298 |
Josh Donaldson | .298 | |
4 | David Wright | .297 |
5 | Evan Longoria | .290 |
Ryan Zimmerman | .290 | |
7 | Kyle Seager | .285 |
8 | Pedro Alvarez | .283 |
Manny Machado | .283 | |
10 | Martin Prado | .275 |
11 | Todd Frazier | .269 |
Chris Johnson | .269 | |
13 | Chase Headley | .265 |
14 | Pablo Sandoval | .263 |
15 | Matt Dominguez | .261 |
Juan Uribe | .261 | |
17 | Mike Aviles | .260 |
18 | Brett Lawrie | .259 |
Mark Reynolds | .259 | |
20 | Nolan Arenado | .254 |
David Freese | ,254 | |
22 | Aramis Ramirez | .253 |
Michael Young | .253 | |
24 | Jose Iglesias | .252 |
Trevor Plouffe | .252 |
Shortstop
Elvis Andrus, top shortstop in the American League. Sure, that's in part because Jose Reyes was limited to 93 games, but Andrus as a fantasy contributor is seriously underrated. For more on that, check out Zach Smith's piece from Tuesday.
Rank | Player | Fantasy Average |
1 | Ian Desmond | .301 |
2 | Troy Tulowitzki | .300 |
3 | Jean Segura | .296 |
4 | Elvis Andrus | .295 |
5 | Hanley Ramirez | .294 |
6 | J.J. Hardy | .287 |
Jed Lowrie | .287 | |
8 | Alexei Ramirez | .278 |
9 | Andrelton Simmons | .276 |
10 | Asdrubal Cabrera | .271 |
11 | Zack Cozart | .269 |
Stephen Drew | .269 | |
Jose Reyes | .269 | |
14 | Erick Aybar | .268 |
Everth Cabrera | .268 | |
Jhonny Peralta | .268 | |
17 | Jimmy Rollins | .263 |
18 | Yunel Escobar | .262 |
19 | Alcides Escobar | .259 |
20 | Starlin Castro | .258 |
21 | Mike Aviles | .257 |
22 | Brandon Crawford | .253 |
23 | Pedro Florimon | .250 |
24 | Brad Miller | .249 |
25 | Jose Iglesias | .248 |
Outfield
There weren't as many surprises here, owing to the deeper position and the lack of a positional "stereotype." Outfielders can be speedsters (Jacoby Ellsbury), sluggers (Jose Bautista), or anything in between, meaning the position statistical profile is pretty similar to the all-hitter one.
Rank | Player | Fantasy Average |
1 | Mike Trout | .319 |
2 | Adam Jones | .306 |
3 | Andrew McCutchen | .304 |
4 | Hunter Pence | .301 |
5 | Carlos Gomez | .298 |
6 | Alex Rios | .297 |
Alfonso Soriano | .297 | |
8 | Matt Holliday | .295 |
9 | Jacoby Ellsbury | .294 |
Jayson Werth | .294 | |
11 | Jay Bruce | .293 |
12 | Michael Cuddyer | .291 |
Carlos Gonzalez | .291 | |
14 | Shin-Soo Choo | .289 |
15 | Torii Hunter | .285 |
16 | Carlos Beltran | .284 |
Coco Crisp | .284 | |
18 | Marlon Byrd | .283 |
Justin Upton | .283 | |
20 | Allen Craig | .282 |
Alex Gordon | .282 | |
Shane Victorino | .282 | |
23 | Domonic Brown | .281 |
24 | Jose Bautista | .280 |
Starling Marte | .280 | |
26 | Alejandro De Aza | .278 |
27 | Yoenis Cespedes | .275 |
Yasiel Puig | .275 | |
Will Venable | .275 | |
30 | Michael Brantley | .273 |
Bryce Harper | .273 | |
32 | Nelson Cruz | .272 |
Brett Gardner | .272 | |
34 | Josh Hamilton | .271 |
Daniel Nava | .271 | |
36 | Austin Jackson | .270 |
Desmond Jennings | .270 | |
Leonys Martin | .270 | |
39 | Chris Carter | .269 |
Nate McLouth | .269 | |
41 | Norichika Aoki | .268 |
42 | Jon Jay | .267 |
Colby Rasmus | .267 | |
44 | Michael Bourn | .266 |
45 | Dexter Fowler | .265 |
Nick Markakis | .265 | |
Nate Schierholtz | .265 | |
Denard Span | .265 | |
Eric Young Jr. | .265 | |
50 | Raul Ibanez | .264 |
Gerardo Parra | .264 | |
Giancarlo Stanton | .264 | |
53 | Chris Denorfia | .263 |
54 | Rajai Davis | .262 |
Wil Myers | .262 | |
56 | Carl Crawford | .257 |
Andre Ethier | .257 | |
A.J. Pollock | .257 | |
59 | Evan Gattis | .256 |
Matt Joyce | .256 | |
Ichiro Suzuki | .256 | |
62 | Justin Ruggiano | .255 |
63 | Jason Heyward | .254 |
Michael Saunders | .254 | |
J.B. Shuck | .254 | |
Drew Stubbs | .254 | |
67 | Dayan Viciedo | .253 |
68 | Emilio Bonifacio | .251 |
Lorenzo Cain | .251 | |
Andy Dirks | .251 | |
Ryan Doumit | .251 | |
Carlos Quentin | .251 | |
Josh Reddick | .251 | |
74 | Gregor Blanco | .250 |
Jonny Gomes | .250 | |
Kelly Johnson | .250 | |
Ben Revere | .250 |
Overall
Just as a reminder, these numbers are the position-only results sorted together. Robinson Cano's .311 is still just what he scored against other second basemen, but it illustrates his overall draft value.
Rank | Player | Fantasy Average |
1 | Miguel Cabrera | .333 |
2 | Paul Goldschmidt | .326 |
3 | Mike Trout | .319 |
4 | Chris Davis | .315 |
5 | Robinson Cano | .311 |
6 | Jason Kipnis | .307 |
7 | Adam Jones | .306 |
8 | Andrew McCutchen | .304 |
9 | Ian Desmond | .301 |
Jonathan Lucroy | .301 | |
Hunter Pence | .301 | |
12 | Troy Tulowitzki | .300 |
13 | Matt Carpenter | .299 |
Daniel Murphy | .299 | |
15 | Adrian Beltre | .298 |
Josh Donaldson | .298 | |
Carlos Gomez | .298 | |
18 | Alex Rios | .297 |
Alfonso Soriano | .297 | |
David Wright | .297 | |
21 | Edwin Encarnacion | .296 |
Jean Segura | .296 | |
23 | Elvis Andrus | .295 |
Matt Holliday | .295 | |
Dustin Pedroia | .295 | |
26 | Jacoby Ellsbury | .294 |
Hanley Ramirez | .294 | |
Wilin Rosario | .294 | |
Jayson Werth | .294 | |
30 | Jay Bruce | .293 |
31 | Michael Cuddyer | .291 |
Carlos Gonzalez | .291 | |
Eric Hosmer | .291 | |
34 | Evan Longoria | .290 |
Carlos Santana | .290 | |
Ryan Zimmerman | .290 | |
37 | Shin-Soo Choo | .289 |
Yadier Molina | .289 | |
Brandon Phillips | .289 | |
Joey Votto | .289 | |
41 | Ian Kinsler | .288 |
42 | J.J. Hardy | .287 |
Jed Lowrie | .287 | |
44 | Freddie Freeman | .286 |
45 | Torii Hunter | .285 |
Kyle Seager | .285 | |
Chase Utley | .285 | |
48 | Jose Altuve | .284 |
Carlos Beltran | .284 | |
Coco Crisp | .284 | |
51 | Pedro Alvarez | .283 |
Marlon Byrd | .283 | |
Manny Machado | .283 | |
Justin Upton | .283 | |
55 | Allen Craig | .282 |
Alex Gordon | .282 | |
Shane Victorino | .282 | |
58 | Domonic Brown | .281 |
Ben Zobrist | .281 | |
60 | Jose Bautista | .280 |
Brian Dozier | .280 | |
Starling Marte | .280 | |
Jarrod Saltalamacchia | .280 | |
Mark Trumbo | .280 | |
65 | Buster Posey | .279 |
66 | Alejandro De Aza | .278 |
Alexei Ramirez | .278 | |
68 | Matt Wieters | .277 |
69 | Prince Fielder | .276 |
Andrelton Simmons | .276 | |
71 | Yoenis Cespedes | .275 |
Martin Prado | .275 | |
Yasiel Puig | .275 | |
Will Venable | .275 | |
75 | Jason Castro | .274 |
Brandon Moss | .274 | |
77 | Michael Brantley | .273 |
Jedd Gyorko | .273 | |
Bryce Harper | .273 | |
Howie Kendrick | .273 | |
Russell Martin | .273 | |
82 | Nelson Cruz | .272 |
Brett Gardner | .272 | |
Adrian Gonzalez | .272 | |
Omar Infante | .272 | |
86 | Asdrubal Cabrera | .271 |
Josh Hamilton | .271 | |
Daniel Nava | .271 | |
89 | Brandon Belt | .270 |
Austin Jackson | .270 | |
Desmond Jennings | .270 | |
Leonys Martin | .270 | |
93 | Chris Carter | .269 |
Zack Cozart | .269 | |
Stephen Drew | .269 | |
Todd Frazier | .269 | |
Chris Johnson | .269 | |
Nate McLouth | .269 | |
Jose Reyes | .269 | |
100 | Norichika Aoki | .268 |
Erick Aybar | .268 | |
Everth Cabrera | .268 | |
Jhonny Peralta | .268 | |
Salvador Perez | .268 | |
A.J. Pierzynski | .268 | |
106 | Jon Jay | .267 |
Joe Mauer | .267 | |
Mike Napoli | .267 | |
Colby Rasmus | .267 | |
Anthony Rizzo | .267 | |
111 | Michael Bourn | .266 |
112 | Dexter Fowler | .265 |
Chase Headley | .265 | |
Nick Markakis | .265 | |
Nate Schierholtz | .265 | |
Denard Span | .265 | |
Eric Young Jr. | .265 | |
118 | Raul Ibanez | .264 |
Adam Lind | .264 | |
Gerardo Parra | .264 | |
Giancarlo Stanton | .264 | |
Neil Walker | .264 | |
123 | Chris Denorfia | .263 |
Jimmy Rollins | .263 | |
Pablo Sandoval | .263 | |
126 | Rajai Davis | .262 |
Yunel Escobar | .262 | |
James Loney | .262 | |
Wil Myers | .262 | |
130 | Emilio Bonifacio | .261 |
Matt Dominguez | .261 | |
Juan Uribe | .261 | |
133 | Mike Aviles | .260 |
Evan Gattis | .260 | |
135 | Chris Carter | .259 |
Adam Dunn | .259 | |
Alcides Escobar | .259 | |
Aaron Hill | .259 | |
Brett Lawrie | .259 | |
Mark Reynolds | .259 | |
141 | Starlin Castro | .258 |
Brian McCann | .258 | |
143 | Carl Crawford | .257 |
Andre Ethier | .257 | |
Adam LaRoche | .257 | |
A.J. Pollock | .257 | |
147 | Matt Joyce | .256 |
DJ LeMahieu | .256 | |
Ichiro Suzuki | .256 | |
Nick Swisher | .256 | |
Dan Uggla | .256 | |
152 | Ryan Doumit | .255 |
Mark Ellis | .255 | |
Yan Gomes | .255 | |
Justin Ruggiano | .255 | |
156 | Nolan Arenado | .254 |
David Freese | .254 | |
Jason Heyward | .254 | |
Michael Saunders | .254 | |
Marco Scutaro | .254 | |
J.B. Shuck | .254 | |
Drew Stubbs | .254 | |
163 | Brandon Crawford | .253 |
Justin Morneau | .253 | |
Aramis Ramirez | .253 | |
Dayan Viciedo | .253 | |
Michael Young | .253 | |
168 | Jose Iglesias | .252 |
Trevor Plouffe | .252 | |
170 | John Buck | .251 |
Lorenzo Cain | .251 | |
Alberto Callaspo | .251 | |
Andy Dirks | .251 | |
Carlos Quentin | .251 | |
Wilson Ramos | .251 | |
Josh Reddick | .251 | |
Eric Sogard | .251 | |
178 | Gregor Blanco | .250 |
Pedro Florimon | .250 | |
Nick Franklin | .250 | |
Jonny Gomes | .250 | |
Kelly Johnson | .250 | |
Ben Revere | .250 | |
184 | Will Middlebrooks | .249 |
Brad Miller | .249 | |
186 | Gordon Beckham | .248 |
Jayson Nix | .248 | |
Angel Pagan | .248 | |
Albert Pujols | .248 | |
190 | Matt Adams | .247 |
Yonder Alonso | .247 | |
J.P. Arencibia | .247 | |
Daniel Descalso | .247 | |
Garrett Jones | 2.47 | |
Mitch Moreland | .247 | |
Derek Norris | .247 | |
Anthony Rendon | .247 | |
Vernon Wells | .247 | |
199 | Brandon Barnes | .246 |
David DeJesus | .246 |