Fantasy Average: Positional breakdown

There's no "way" to win at fantasy baseball. I assume you know that, but it's worth repeating. You can go pitching-heavy, homer-happy, all leadoff hitters, lefties only, limit yourself to just guys from San Pedro da Macoris. If you hit on the right guys, you can win with any of them.

A couple seasons ago, I tried to Moneyball my main league. My list of potential keepers was uninspired, and I knew a few things about my leaguemates - they undervalued saves and steals as fantasy categories (a couple guys literally never owned relievers). In addition to that, I used a very aggressive campaign to get us to move to K/9 over K's, plus a few other moves to rate stats over counting ones.

The result, then, was that I loaded up on guys who were undervalued in the traditional categories. High-OBP guys with steals and runs scored. Homers and RBI were fine if I ended up with them, but I wasn't going that way. And I totally punted on wins, only getting enough starters to meet the innings minimum while grabbing every closer I could, locking up saves while hopefully rolling through the rate categories.

And it would have worked too, if it wasn't for those meddling kids and their dog. (In this case, "those meddling kids and their dog" means "injuries to Joey Votto, Mariano Rivera, Ryan Madson, Brett Gardner, Brandon Beachy, Cory Luebke, Wilson Ramos ..." I lost something like a dozen guys to season-ending injury that season.)

Anyway, the point is that any strategy can work, but you're still always looking for that market inefficiency. Going heavy on the power? You'll probably be fine with like eight different first basemen, but who are you going to use at shortstop? Need steals? Catcher's going to be a tough position for you.

Those who have been around the last week or two probably saw my Fantasy Average piece, in which I attempted to use standard deviations to present every offensive players' fantasy contributions in terms of a batting average-like number. That presentation is a useful ranking tool and, since it's on a scale we're all familiar with, is a heck of a shorthand for overall strength. If your guy hit ".300" by Fantasy Average, he's a heck of a player.

Well, the obvious next step in Fantasy Average - suggested by more than a few on the original piece - was to break it down by position. In my initial calculations, I weighed each player against every offensive player with 400 or more plate appearances. That's all well and good, but how often are you actually considering the prospect of Elvis Andrus vs. Mark Trumbo? No, it's more likely you're wondering whether Jonathan Lucroy or Wilin Rosario is the catcher for you, or if Paul Goldschmidt's well-rounded game does enough to overtake Chris Davis' power.

So I went back and found each player's Fantasy Average against only his position mates, lowering the threshold to 300 plate appearances so as to have sufficient player population to make standard deviations worth considering. I then re-ranked every player by his position-only Fantasy Average.

As you might expect, most players didn't see a huge difference from their overall numbers, particularly the outfielders. Robinson Cano, who puts up good numbers for a generic hitter but great numbers for a second baseman, saw his Fantasy Average climb from .299 to .311, and his overall rank climb from ninth to fifth. Fellow second baseman Jason Kipnis and shortstop Ian Desmond, both of whom supply power numbers at power-starved positions, reached the top 10, as did the leading base-stealer among catchers, Jonathan Lucroy.

Below, I have listed the top 25 at each position (75 in the outfield), and the top 200 overall. Some players played multiple positions and had different Fantasy Averages based on each position; in the top 200, I have listed only each player's highest score.

One note: In addition to being a handy little sorting tool (at least in my opinion), I'm running these pieces as a sort of statistical crowd-sourcing. I'm planning to figure a longer-range (three years, probably) Fantasy Average for regulars, in an effort to track consistency and see if I can offer more predictiveness to the tool. But I'm happy to hear any other critiques/suggestions for fine-tuning the metric as I go. Let's see what we can do with this puppy.

Catcher

This was the position that was probably the most interesting. Catchers, as a rule, just don't produce on a level comparable to many of the other positions - they naturally tend to play fewer games, and they wear down more quickly. But when they are just scaled against one another, the top tend to rise a lot. It was also notable how low Buster Posey - the widely accepted position leader - ranked against his own position mates. It's true 2013 wasn't as good as 2012 for him, but I was still surprised by his low rank.

Rank	Player	Fantasy Average
1	Jonathan Lucroy	.301
2	Wilin Rosario	.294
3	Carlos Santana	.290
4	Yadier Molina	.289
5	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	.280
6	Buster Posey	.279
7	Matt Wieters	.277
8	Jason Castro	.274
9	Russell Martin	.273
10	Salvador Perez	.268
	A.J. Pierzynski	.268
12	Joe Mauer	.267
13	Evan Gattis	.260
14	Brian McCann	.258
15	Ryan Doumit	.255
	Yan Gomes	.255
17	John Buck	.251
	Wilson Ramos	.251
19	J.P. Arencibia	.247
	Derek Norris	.247
21	Welington Castillo	.244
22	A.J. Ellis	.242
23	Nick Hundley	.240
24	Miguel Montero	.238
25	Alex Avila	.237

First Base

The guys who get steals did well here. Paul Goldschmidt and Eric Hosmer - the only first basemen to steal double-digit bases last year - did the best against their own position. For those who are trying a strategy like the one I outlined at the top, guys like Goldschmidt and Hosmer who do something no one else at the position can do offer huge value.

Rank	Player	Fantasy Average
1	Paul Goldschmidt	.326
2	Chris Davis	.315
3	Edwin Encarnacion	.296
4	Eric Hosmer	.291
5	Joey Votto	.289
6	Freddie Freeman	.286
7	Mark Trumbo	.280
8	Prince Fielder	.276
9	Brandon Moss	.274
10	Allen Craig	.273
11	Adrian Gonzalez	.272
12	Brandon Belt	.270
13	Mike Napoli	.267
	Anthony Rizzo	.267
15	Adam Lind	.264
16	James Loney	.262
17	Chris Carter	.259
	Adam Dunn	.259
19	Adam LaRoche	.257
20	Nick Swisher	.256
21	Justin Morneau	.253
22	Mark Reynolds	.249
23	Albert Pujols	.248
24	Matt Adams	.247
	Yonder Alonso	.247
	Mitch Moreland	.247

Second Base

Someone like Brandon Phillips, who was blown out of the water in WAR among second basemen, ranking 13^th in 2013, does really well in FA, which just takes his gaudy RBI total as a gaudy statistic, so he came in sixth at the position. It's a nice reminder of the difference between fantasy value and real value.

Rank	Player	Fantasy Average
1	Robinson Cano	.311
2	Jason Kipnis	.307
3	Matt Carpenter	.299
	Daniel Murphy	.299
5	Dustin Pedroia	.295
6	Brandon Phillips	.289
7	Ian Kinsler	.288
8	Chase Utley	.285
9	Jose Altuve	.284
10	Ben Zobrist	.281
11	Brian Dozier	.280
12	Jedd Gyorko	.273
	Howie Kendrick	.273
14	Omar Infante	.272
15	Neil Walker	.264
16	Emilio Bonifacio	.261
17	Aaron Hill	.259
18	DJ LeMahieu	.256
	Dan Uggla	.256
20	Mark Ellis	.255
21	Marco Scutaro	.254
22	Eric Sogard	.251
23	Nick Franklin	.250
24	Gordon Beckham	.248
25	Daniel Descalso	.247
	Anthony Rendon	.247

Third Base

Miguel Cabrera had the single biggest lead at any position, which makes some level of sense. Even with guys like Adrian Beltre, David Wright, and Evan Longoria (in some order - you rank them, I dare you) at the position, Cabrera as a pure offensive player is pretty unparalleled.

Rank	Position	Fantasy Average
1	Miguel Cabrera	.333
2	Adrian Beltre	.298
	Josh Donaldson	.298
4	David Wright	.297
5	Evan Longoria	.290
	Ryan Zimmerman	.290
7	Kyle Seager	.285
8	Pedro Alvarez	.283
	Manny Machado	.283
10	Martin Prado	.275
11	Todd Frazier	.269
	Chris Johnson	.269
13	Chase Headley	.265
14	Pablo Sandoval	.263
15	Matt Dominguez	.261
	Juan Uribe	.261
17	Mike Aviles	.260
18	Brett Lawrie	.259
	Mark Reynolds	.259
20	Nolan Arenado	.254
	David Freese	,254
22	Aramis Ramirez	.253
	Michael Young	.253
24	Jose Iglesias	.252
	Trevor Plouffe	.252

Shortstop

Elvis Andrus, top shortstop in the American League. Sure, that's in part because Jose Reyes was limited to 93 games, but Andrus as a fantasy contributor is seriously underrated. For more on that, check out Zach Smith's piece from Tuesday.

Rank	Player	Fantasy Average
1	Ian Desmond	.301
2	Troy Tulowitzki	.300
3	Jean Segura	.296
4	Elvis Andrus	.295
5	Hanley Ramirez	.294
6	J.J. Hardy	.287
	Jed Lowrie	.287
8	Alexei Ramirez	.278
9	Andrelton Simmons	.276
10	Asdrubal Cabrera	.271
11	Zack Cozart	.269
	Stephen Drew	.269
	Jose Reyes	.269
14	Erick Aybar	.268
	Everth Cabrera	.268
	Jhonny Peralta	.268
17	Jimmy Rollins	.263
18	Yunel Escobar	.262
19	Alcides Escobar	.259
20	Starlin Castro	.258
21	Mike Aviles	.257
22	Brandon Crawford	.253
23	Pedro Florimon	.250
24	Brad Miller	.249
25	Jose Iglesias	.248

Outfield

There weren't as many surprises here, owing to the deeper position and the lack of a positional "stereotype." Outfielders can be speedsters (Jacoby Ellsbury), sluggers (Jose Bautista), or anything in between, meaning the position statistical profile is pretty similar to the all-hitter one.

Rank	Player	Fantasy Average
1	Mike Trout	.319
2	Adam Jones	.306
3	Andrew McCutchen	.304
4	Hunter Pence	.301
5	Carlos Gomez	.298
6	Alex Rios	.297
	Alfonso Soriano	.297
8	Matt Holliday	.295
9	Jacoby Ellsbury	.294
	Jayson Werth	.294
11	Jay Bruce	.293
12	Michael Cuddyer	.291
	Carlos Gonzalez	.291
14	Shin-Soo Choo	.289
15	Torii Hunter	.285
16	Carlos Beltran	.284
	Coco Crisp	.284
18	Marlon Byrd	.283
	Justin Upton	.283
20	Allen Craig	.282
	Alex Gordon	.282
	Shane Victorino	.282
23	Domonic Brown	.281
24	Jose Bautista	.280
	Starling Marte	.280
26	Alejandro De Aza	.278
27	Yoenis Cespedes	.275
	Yasiel Puig	.275
	Will Venable	.275
30	Michael Brantley	.273
	Bryce Harper	.273
32	Nelson Cruz	.272
	Brett Gardner	.272
34	Josh Hamilton	.271
	Daniel Nava	.271
36	Austin Jackson	.270
	Desmond Jennings	.270
	Leonys Martin	.270
39	Chris Carter	.269
	Nate McLouth	.269
41	Norichika Aoki	.268
42	Jon Jay	.267
	Colby Rasmus	.267
44	Michael Bourn	.266
45	Dexter Fowler	.265
	Nick Markakis	.265
	Nate Schierholtz	.265
	Denard Span	.265
	Eric Young Jr.	.265
50	Raul Ibanez	.264
	Gerardo Parra	.264
	Giancarlo Stanton	.264
53	Chris Denorfia	.263
54	Rajai Davis	.262
	Wil Myers	.262
56	Carl Crawford	.257
	Andre Ethier	.257
	A.J. Pollock	.257
59	Evan Gattis	.256
	Matt Joyce	.256
	Ichiro Suzuki	.256
62	Justin Ruggiano	.255
63	Jason Heyward	.254
	Michael Saunders	.254
	J.B. Shuck	.254
	Drew Stubbs	.254
67	Dayan Viciedo	.253
68	Emilio Bonifacio	.251
	Lorenzo Cain	.251
	Andy Dirks	.251
	Ryan Doumit	.251
	Carlos Quentin	.251
	Josh Reddick	.251
74	Gregor Blanco	.250
	Jonny Gomes	.250
	Kelly Johnson	.250
	Ben Revere	.250

Overall

Just as a reminder, these numbers are the position-only results sorted together. Robinson Cano's .311 is still just what he scored against other second basemen, but it illustrates his overall draft value.

Rank	Player	Fantasy Average
1	Miguel Cabrera	.333
2	Paul Goldschmidt	.326
3	Mike Trout	.319
4	Chris Davis	.315
5	Robinson Cano	.311
6	Jason Kipnis	.307
7	Adam Jones	.306
8	Andrew McCutchen	.304
9	Ian Desmond	.301
	Jonathan Lucroy	.301
	Hunter Pence	.301
12	Troy Tulowitzki	.300
13	Matt Carpenter	.299
	Daniel Murphy	.299
15	Adrian Beltre	.298
	Josh Donaldson	.298
	Carlos Gomez	.298
18	Alex Rios	.297
	Alfonso Soriano	.297
	David Wright	.297
21	Edwin Encarnacion	.296
	Jean Segura	.296
23	Elvis Andrus	.295
	Matt Holliday	.295
	Dustin Pedroia	.295
26	Jacoby Ellsbury	.294
	Hanley Ramirez	.294
	Wilin Rosario	.294
	Jayson Werth	.294
30	Jay Bruce	.293
31	Michael Cuddyer	.291
	Carlos Gonzalez	.291
	Eric Hosmer	.291
34	Evan Longoria	.290
	Carlos Santana	.290
	Ryan Zimmerman	.290
37	Shin-Soo Choo	.289
	Yadier Molina	.289
	Brandon Phillips	.289
	Joey Votto	.289
41	Ian Kinsler	.288
42	J.J. Hardy	.287
	Jed Lowrie	.287
44	Freddie Freeman	.286
45	Torii Hunter	.285
	Kyle Seager	.285
	Chase Utley	.285
48	Jose Altuve	.284
	Carlos Beltran	.284
	Coco Crisp	.284
51	Pedro Alvarez	.283
	Marlon Byrd	.283
	Manny Machado	.283
	Justin Upton	.283
55	Allen Craig	.282
	Alex Gordon	.282
	Shane Victorino	.282
58	Domonic Brown	.281
	Ben Zobrist	.281
60	Jose Bautista	.280
	Brian Dozier	.280
	Starling Marte	.280
	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	.280
	Mark Trumbo	.280
65	Buster Posey	.279
66	Alejandro De Aza	.278
	Alexei Ramirez	.278
68	Matt Wieters	.277
69	Prince Fielder	.276
	Andrelton Simmons	.276
71	Yoenis Cespedes	.275
	Martin Prado	.275
	Yasiel Puig	.275
	Will Venable	.275
75	Jason Castro	.274
	Brandon Moss	.274
77	Michael Brantley	.273
	Jedd Gyorko	.273
	Bryce Harper	.273
	Howie Kendrick	.273
	Russell Martin	.273
82	Nelson Cruz	.272
	Brett Gardner	.272
	Adrian Gonzalez	.272
	Omar Infante	.272
86	Asdrubal Cabrera	.271
	Josh Hamilton	.271
	Daniel Nava	.271
89	Brandon Belt	.270
	Austin Jackson	.270
	Desmond Jennings	.270
	Leonys Martin	.270
93	Chris Carter	.269
	Zack Cozart	.269
	Stephen Drew	.269
	Todd Frazier	.269
	Chris Johnson	.269
	Nate McLouth	.269
	Jose Reyes	.269
100	Norichika Aoki	.268
	Erick Aybar	.268
	Everth Cabrera	.268
	Jhonny Peralta	.268
	Salvador Perez	.268
	A.J. Pierzynski	.268
106	Jon Jay	.267
	Joe Mauer	.267
	Mike Napoli	.267
	Colby Rasmus	.267
	Anthony Rizzo	.267
111	Michael Bourn	.266
112	Dexter Fowler	.265
	Chase Headley	.265
	Nick Markakis	.265
	Nate Schierholtz	.265
	Denard Span	.265
	Eric Young Jr.	.265
118	Raul Ibanez	.264
	Adam Lind	.264
	Gerardo Parra	.264
	Giancarlo Stanton	.264
	Neil Walker	.264
123	Chris Denorfia	.263
	Jimmy Rollins	.263
	Pablo Sandoval	.263
126	Rajai Davis	.262
	Yunel Escobar	.262
	James Loney	.262
	Wil Myers	.262
130	Emilio Bonifacio	.261
	Matt Dominguez	.261
	Juan Uribe	.261
133	Mike Aviles	.260
	Evan Gattis	.260
135	Chris Carter	.259
	Adam Dunn	.259
	Alcides Escobar	.259
	Aaron Hill	.259
	Brett Lawrie	.259
	Mark Reynolds	.259
141	Starlin Castro	.258
	Brian McCann	.258
143	Carl Crawford	.257
	Andre Ethier	.257
	Adam LaRoche	.257
	A.J. Pollock	.257
147	Matt Joyce	.256
	DJ LeMahieu	.256
	Ichiro Suzuki	.256
	Nick Swisher	.256
	Dan Uggla	.256
152	Ryan Doumit	.255
	Mark Ellis	.255
	Yan Gomes	.255
	Justin Ruggiano	.255
156	Nolan Arenado	.254
	David Freese	.254
	Jason Heyward	.254
	Michael Saunders	.254
	Marco Scutaro	.254
	J.B. Shuck	.254
	Drew Stubbs	.254
163	Brandon Crawford	.253
	Justin Morneau	.253
	Aramis Ramirez	.253
	Dayan Viciedo	.253
	Michael Young	.253
168	Jose Iglesias	.252
	Trevor Plouffe	.252
170	John Buck	.251
	Lorenzo Cain	.251
	Alberto Callaspo	.251
	Andy Dirks	.251
	Carlos Quentin	.251
	Wilson Ramos	.251
	Josh Reddick	.251
	Eric Sogard	.251
178	Gregor Blanco	.250
	Pedro Florimon	.250
	Nick Franklin	.250
	Jonny Gomes	.250
	Kelly Johnson	.250
	Ben Revere	.250
184	Will Middlebrooks	.249
	Brad Miller	.249
186	Gordon Beckham	.248
	Jayson Nix	.248
	Angel Pagan	.248
	Albert Pujols	.248
190	Matt Adams	.247
	Yonder Alonso	.247
	J.P. Arencibia	.247
	Daniel Descalso	.247
	Garrett Jones	2.47
	Mitch Moreland	.247
	Derek Norris	.247
	Anthony Rendon	.247
	Vernon Wells	.247
199	Brandon Barnes	.246
	David DeJesus	.246