2014 Minor League Keeper Thoughts: St. Louis Cardinals

The prospect staff here at Fake Teams will be taking an in-depth look at each major league organization, including our top 10 fantasy prospects, an overview of the organization's minor league system as a whole and potential opportunities for playing time in 2014. Our goal is to provide you with more information as you prepare for minor league drafts for dynasty and keeper leagues, as well as look at players that could potentially be worth watching during the spring, as they could be in line to potentially help your fantasy team. We will be reviewing two teams per week until we are through all 30 teams, and you can see the schedule of when your favorite team will be reviewed below.

System Schedule

Organizational Overview
By Brian Creagh(@briancreagh)

St. Louis appears to have found the perfect blend of scouting and analytics, culminating in a recipe for consistent success. In the past three seasons the Cardinals have made it to the NLCS each season, twice making it to the World Series, and once capturing the title in 2011. The depth and ingenuity of this franchise was on full display following their championship run as they seamlessly transitioned into a new era without longtime manager, Tony LaRussa, and future hall of fame first baseman, Albert Pujols. Both franchise staples were replaced by in-house options, Mike Matheny and Allen Craig, respectively.

Expectations for St. Louis in 2014 could not be any higher. The acquisitions of Peter Bourjos and Jhonny Peralta, along with the promotions of Kolten Wong and Oscar Taveras will bolster an already potent lineup. A full season of Michael Wacha, Trevor Rosenthal, and Carlos Martinez, plus the health of Jaime Garcia means the Cardinals have improved in every facet following their World Series runner-up finish in 2013.

2013 Graduates

The following players have surpassed their rookie maximums of 130 AB, 50 IP, or 45 days of service time prior to September 1st of this year.

Pete Kozma (at bats), Matt Adams (at bats), Shelby Miller (innings), Trevor Rosenthal (innings), Michael Wacha (innings), Seth Maness (innings), Tyler Lyons (innings)

Major League Opportunities in 2014
By Brian Creagh(@briancreagh)

The lineup, rotation, and back end of the bullpen appear all set heading into Spring Training, but there are two critical decisions left to be made. First, where will the Cardinals let Carlos Martinez exhibit his electric arm? A role as a starter is the obvious long-term solution, but given the crowded rotation of Wainwright, Miller, Wacha, Garcia, Lynn, and Kelly, plus Martinez's dominance in the 8th inning throughout the playoffs leaves many to wonder whether it's worth making the transition to starter right away. Recent reports suggest Martinez will enter Spring Training competing for a rotation spot, but the bullpen, as opposed to a return to AAA as a starter, seems to be his fallback option.

The second decision fantasy owners should be waiting on pins and needles for is where does Oscar Taveras find regular at-bats in a crowded St. Louis outfield? Assuming Matt Adams slides over to a full-time 1B role and Allen Craig settles in at RF, the rest of the outfield will be handled by Peter Bourjos and Matt Holliday. Craig may still see some time at 1B, but Jon Jay would then be the favorite off-the-bench bat to take the reps in the OF. Taveras' bat is elite and the talent he demonstrates will break through any roadblocks presented to him. He just might no longer be worth a flier in re-draft leagues.

Top to bottom. this St. Louis lineup is filled with players who should be rostered in standard formats. Kolten Wong might be the only exception, but he does have some upside in a position that is sorely lacking it. Peralta figures to be the biggest improvement by being their first offensively competent shortstop in quite some time. The rotation is equally loaded with Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, Michael Wacha, and Jaime Garcia being excellent options. Whoever emerges from spring training as the number 5 starter should also be heavily considered as rosterable in a standard format. Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly, and Carlos Martinez can all put up Top 100 SP numbers if given the innings. The closer's role is also settled with Trevor Rosenthal taking over the 9th inning despite expressing interest in being considered as a starter. His October dominance was too good to put anywhere else and he looks to be an easy Top 10 closer for the foreseeable future.

Top 10 Fantasy Prospects
By Jason Hunt(@jasonsbaseball)

Our top 10 fantasy prospect rankings are based upon standard 5x5 fantasy baseball leagues, with a balancing of ceiling and present value. While we are having discussions regarding these lists as a collective group, the top 10 fantasy prospect rankings are finalized by the writer listed above. Players are no longer considered prospects once they exceed either 130 at bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 days of service time in the Majors prior to September 1st.

The top prospect in a deep system a year ago, Taveras was signed out of the Dominican Republic back in 2008 for just $145K and debuted stateside in 2010 with a nice .322/.362/.526 slash line in the Appy League. He truly emerged as a potential top prospect after hitting .386 as a 19-year old over half a season in the Midwest League. The reports on Taveras at the time pointed to a ridiculous ability to make solid, hard contact with what appeared to be a violent swing.

Despite playing just half a season at Low-A, the Cardinals took the unusual step to skip Taveras past High-A and sent him directly to AA Springfield. He hit even better, posting a .321/.380/.572 slash line with 23 home runs, and vaulting into the top 10 on many prospect lists. He was invited to spring training in 2013, and was given an outside shot at winning a starting job in the Cardinals' outfield. He didn't end up winning that job, and was sent to AAA to start the year. Unfortunately, Taveras missed significant portions of the season due to a high ankle sprain, keeping him from appearing in more than 46 games.

Taveras is the real deal as a fantasy prospect. He is expected to hit for a high average on the strength of a plus to potentially plus-plus hit tool, consistently providing fantasy owners with batting averages over .300 on the strength of his elite bat speed. To go with that, Taveras should provide 20-25 home runs per season as well, with the potential for higher totals in some seasons. He also isn't expected to produce the high strikeout out totals that you would expect from a power hitter, which should improve his value somewhat for points leagues as well. He has decent speed, but that isn't necessarily expected to translate into more than a token few stolen bases each year.

The outfield in St. Louis is a bit crowded at the moment, with Holliday in left, Bourjos expected to take over in center, and potentially Jon Jay in right or Allen Craig headed there, it's unclear that Taveras will get a shot during Spring Training at a starting job. It won't be long before he is in the outfield for Cards, and has the upside to be an elite contributor in 4 categories.

As stacked as the Red Sox' system is, it could have potentially had another high-ceiling arm in Carlos Martinez. Originally signed by the Sox back in 2009 for under $150K, questions about his identity led to the contract being voided and a year suspension. It helped Martinez financially, as he ended up signing with the Cardinals for ten times that amount, a cool $1.5 million in 2010.

After spending the rest of that year in the DSL, Martinez moved quickly through both levels of A-ball in 2011, striking out 98 in 84 innings that year. He returned to High-A at the start of 2012 before a quick jump to AA after seven starts. He made three starts there in April 2013 before getting called up to the Majors to work out of the bullpen. He shuttled back and forth throughout the season, working in the bullpen in the majors and working as a starter while at AAA.

The first thing that stands out about Martinez is his fastball, an elite offering touching triple digits consistently while working in relief, but still can sit in the mid-90s in the rotation. He matches it up with a hard slider, which is also considered a plus offering. The development of a changeup will likely play a key role in whether or not he can return to the rotation, although there are also concerns about whether his frame will hold up for a starter's workload.

Martinez is expected to prepare as if he will be in the starting rotation, but it seems a lot more likely that he will be used (at least this season) out of the bullpen, providing the Cardinals with a killer one-two combination at the back end of the bullpen with Trevor Rosenthal. His ceiling as a starting pitcher remains a low #2/high #3 type starter, providing high strikeout totals which are partially negated by concerns regarding WHIP, but could also potentially be a shutdown closer if given the opportunity.

A first round pick out of the University of Hawaii in 2011, Wong enters the 2014 season in line to get at least a majority of the starts at second base for the Cardinals. After receiving a bonus of $1.3 million, Wong appeared in 47 games with Low-A Quad Cities that year, hitting .335 with 22 extra base hits and a 24:21 strikeout-to-walk-ratio. The organization moved Wong quickly, sending him straight to AA for the 2012 season, where he hit .287 with nine home runs and 21 stolen bases in 32 attempts. While mentioned as a potential candidate for the second base job during spring training in 2013, Wong instead was sent to AAA Memphis, where he continued at a similar pace, hitting 10 home runs and improving his stolen base success rate, going 21 for 22 before being called up to the Majors in late August. He was with the team through their World Series run, and unfortunately his most notable appearance in the postseason was being picked off to end game four of the World Series.

His main value to fantasy owners will come from his batting average (expected to be in the .285-.300 range on a consistent basis), and from his potential for stolen bases (potentially 20+ per season), while also providing more than token power in the 5-10 home run range. He also should provide owners in points and OBP leagues with slightly more value than expected, as he consistently posts solid contact rates while avoiding strikeouts as well. He is one of those players that doesn't necessarily do anything great, but does nearly everything at least solidly. While he will likely end up in the early 20's for our consensus 2014 rankings due to the presence of Mark Ellis, Wong has the potential to be a top 10 to top 15 second baseman when given a full season of playing time, and could end up a nice sleeper in deeper formats.

A graduate of the same high school as myself (Amador Valley in Pleasanton, CA), Piscotty was drafted by the Cardinals in the supplemental first round of the 2012 draft after a sterling college career at Stanford. The team sent him to Low-A Quad Cities for the remainder of the season, where he hit. 295/.376/.448 with four home runs and three stolen bases in 55 games. With the start of the 2013 season came a promotion to High-A Palm Beach, along with a position change from third base to right field. He hit well there for 63 games before being promoted to AA for the remainder of the season. He missed some time at AA due to a hamstring injury, but was sent to the Arizona Fall League to make up some of those at bats and hit .371 with nine stolen bases.

Piscotty will be carried by his batting average for fantasy owners, as he is considered to have an excellent approach at the plate and has the potential to be a .290-.300 hitter in the major leagues. The power that you would normally expect from a corner outfielder has not manifested itself yet, but it sounds like there is potential for him to be a 20+ home run per season bat down the line. If it doesn't, he will still likely be a 15-20 home run hitter with a bunch of doubles. It seems likely that he will only provide token stolen bases for fantasy owners, as he is no particularly effective at stealing bases currently.

The conversion to right field sounds as if it is going well, and Piscotty's arm will allow him to stay there rather than having to move to left field down the line. He will head to AAA Memphis this year, and could end up as one of the first outfielders called up should the team have a need in the future.

The top pick of the Cardinals in 2013 out of Gonzaga University, Gonzales is expected to be another in the line of quick moving college pitchers for the Cards. He was a two-way player in college, splitting his time between the mound and first base, but the Cardinals believe his long-term future is on the hill. He gave a glimpse of what is possible, striking out nearly a batter per inning in his brief professional tenure.

Gonzales is considered a very polished college pitcher, featuring an above-average fastball and what Baseball America rated as the best changeup in the system at the moment. He also throws a curveball which has shown good downward break, but is considered just his third-best offering. The delivery is very smooth, and gets good deception on his pitches as well.

He is expected to be moved fast, with AA as a very likely starting point for the 2014 season. If that happens, he could be in the majors before the end of the season, depending on the needs for a starter for the major league club. Gonzales profiles as a mid-rotation type starting pitcher, providing solid strikeout totals and decent ratios in a full season.

The path to the professional ranks for Alex Reyes was an interesting one, as he opted prior to graduating from high school to move to the Dominican Republic, which made him eligible after a year to sign as an international free agent with a team of his choosing rather than being drafted at all. He made his debut this season with an excellent strikeout rate in the rookie league, and the scouting reports are even more glowing.

Despite his young age, Reyes already features two above-average pitches, a mid-90s fastball as well as a solid curveball. He is extremely projectable in terms of his frame and overall performance, and could move way up this list for the 2015 season with a solid performance this year. For him to remain as a starting pitcher long-term, he'll need to develop a third pitch that can at least keep the hitters honest, but there is still a ton of time for that to happen. He will likely head to Low-A this season, although it remains to be seen whether it will be the full-season or short-season version.

The second of two first round picks by the Cardinals in the 2013 draft, New Jersey high schooler Rob Kaminsky was viewed as a potential first round pick despite being shorter than your average pitching prospect at 5'11". He signed for a bonus of just under $1.8 million, and was able to throw 22 innings with the Cardinals' GCL affiliate before the end of the season.

Kaminsky features a low-90's fastball which grades out as an above-average offering, to go along with a curveball which Baseball America rated as the best in the Cardinals' system right now. He combines that with a changeup which, while behind the other offerings, is expected to be at least average down the line. His size doesn't seem to cause him specific issue with getting downward plane on his pitches, and there don't seem to be the same concerns about holding up for a full season of starts despite the lower height.

Kaminsky is a long way from the Majors right now, and could potentially start the year in full-season Low-A. I personally want to see what he can do with more innings, and specifically whether he can keep up his strikeout rate over the long season. He has a potential mid-rotation ceiling down the line, which could translate into a top 50 starting pitcher in the major leagues.

Grichuk was traded by the Angels to the Cardinals earlier in the offseason, so his profile by Brian Creagh from our Angels' top 10 has been revised due to this change in his opportunity.

Having been in the Top 10 prospect discussions since 2009, there is a serious case of prospect fatigue with Randal Grichuk. He is a corner outfield prospect with a right field profile given the arm strength. Grichuk's power is his only plus tool, and he has always struggled to make enough contact to let the power play to its potential.

Grichuk spent all of 2013 in AA hitting 22 bombs with a .256/.306/.474 triple slash line. He has made tremendous strides in cutting his strikeout rate to below 20% in each of the past two seasons and this helped keep Grichuk from falling into prospect oblivion. Another promising trend in the past two seasons has been Grichuk's health. He was plagued with injuries in his first few professional seasons and he seems to have shaken off the injury risk label.

The ultimate ceiling here is an average corner outfield with solid power numbers and middling contact numbers. His defense should keep him in lineups if he struggles, but the ceiling isn't there for fantasy owners to get too excited over this guy. He seems to be more of an NL-only play because of a high likelihood of Grichuk maxing out to a platoon bat off the bench. With the depth of outfielders in the higher levels of the minors for the Cardinals, it is possibly we don't see Grichuk before the end of the 2015 season.

A tall, projectable lefty, Tim Cooney was drafted by the Cardinals in the 3rd round of the 2012 draft out of Wake Forest University. He threw 55 innings in his professional debut, striking out 43 and walking just 8 with the Cards' NY-Penn League affiliate. The team sent him to start the 2013 season to High-A Palm Beach, but was forced to move him to AA after just six starts to help fill out the rotation there. He pitched well enough to stay, making 20 starts and striking out more than a batter per inning while there.

None of the pitches in Cooney's repertoire grade out as being plus offerings, but he is considered to have an advanced approach to pitching to go with excellent command of all of his pitches. He throws a fastball which sits in the low-90s, as well as a solid changeup, a curveball and cutter. The changeup is considered above-average potentially, while the rest remain works in progress.

Based on the results and these reports, it seems like Cooney is set up well as a starting pitcher, not necessarily having the heat that we have seen from a number of recent pitching prospects for the Cardinals, but still has the potential to fit in the back-end of a starting rotation for the Cardinals. After nearly a full season at AA, he's well placed to head to AAA Memphis, and could potentially be in line for a call up at some point this year. For fantasy owners, he's worth a look in deeper formats, as he could be a nice innings-eater type at the back end of a rotation and a relatively low WHIP risk.

Ramsey was another of the Cardinals' first round picks in the 2012 draft, going at #23 overall and signing for a bonus of $1.6 million out of Florida State University. He struggled in his professional debut, hitting just .229/.333/.314 in 56 games at High-A. A brief 18 game return to Palm Beach lead to an early promotion to AA in 2013, where he hit .251/.356/.424 before a move to AAA Memphis for the last game of the year.

The reports on Ramsey point to a player who doesn't have a stand out tool particularly, but more that all of his tools are potentially at least average. He has played center field primarily in the minors, and is considered a good enough defender out there to stay in the long-term. There are questions about whether the power he showed at AA this year will continue, and makes me wonder if he ends up as a 4th outfielder long-term. There are literally no makeup questions regarding Ramsey, with Baseball America calling him a "gamer with great makeup". Long-term, he has the potential to be a solid hitter for batting average (.260 range) with 8-12 home runs and a few stolen bases per year if he plays everyday.

Other Interesting Prospects
By Jason Hunt (@jasonsbaseball)

Tyrell Jenkins - Often viewed as having a top-of-the-rotation ceiling, Jenkins struggled mightily this season amid injuries and a drop in his strikeout rate. It's hard to say that he doesn't still have that ceiling available to him, but the odds of it happening appear much lower than a year ago. He will likely return to High-A for the 2014 season, and could vault back up this list with a solid year.

Mike O'Neill - Since being drafted in the 31st round back in 2010, all O'Neill has done is hit, at every stop he's been at. He has put up some cartoon-like walk and strikeout numbers, having walked 222 times and struck out just 99 in over 1400 plate appearances as a professional, while hitting .328. It's an empty batting average, as he tripled his career home run total this year with two while at AA. He was added to the 40-man roster this offseason, and could get a shot as a backup outfielder at some point in 2014.

Oscar Mercado - A defensive minded shortstop taken in the 2nd round of the 2013 draft, there are legitimate questions regarding how much Mercado will hit as he continues to move up through the minors. A high school draftee, he's a name worth at least keeping an eye on over the next couple years, as he will stay at the position long-term.

Carson Kelly - An extremely young draftee in 2012, the Cardinals are working to convert Kelly from third base to catcher. The early reports on this have been solid, and point to that at least being a reasonably possibility. There's work to be done on the hitting side as well, and his development as a catcher could slow his work at the plate, but there's potential long-term for a very interesting catching prospect.

About the Authors

Jason Hunt is a contributing writer for Fake Teams, specializing in the minor leagues and prospects.
Follow him on Twitter @jasonsbaseball

Brian Creagh is a contributing writer for Fake Teams, specializing in fantasy baseball and the minor leagues.
Follow him on Twitter @BrianCreagh

Matt Mattingly is a contributing writer for Fake Teams, specializing in fantasy baseball and the minor leagues.
Follow him on Twitter @MattMattingly81

Sources

Baseball America
Baseball Prospectus
Baseball Reference
Fangraphs
Viva El Birdos
Vimeo
Youtube

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