ADP Rankings Analysis: First Base

Today we take a look at the average draft position data for first basemen to see how our consensus first basemen rankings fared against the NFBC (National Fantasy Baseball Championship) ADP rankings courtesy of NESN.com.

Along with the NFBC ADP rankings, the NESN site also provides the Min Pick and Max Pick data, which tells readers where the player was drafted the highest and the lowest thus far in the NFBC drafts.

In addition, I thought it would be helpful to include the Fake Teams consensus first base rankings in the table below to see how close the collective rankings of eight independent writers fared vs the NFBC ADP rankings. The NFBC rankings are collected from all the NFBC drafts that have completed to date. Each of the NBC drafts consist of 15 teams and 30 rounds, so the data is a good barometer for where players are being drafted.

Quick Thoughts

First base seems to have a consensus across the industry as the first 12 - 13 first baseman are being drafted accordingly. There is no question who the #1 fantasy first baseman is, Miguel Cabrera, followed by the top first baseman from 2013, Paul Goldschmidt. Those two are followed by Chris Davis, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, Edwin Encarnacion and Freddie Freeman,

In fact, if you want one of the top seven first baseman, you will have to select them within the first two rounds of drafts this season, as they all own an ADP of 23 or lower. I participated in a 12 team, mixed mock draft on Tuesday night with some other fantasy writers, and the top six first baseman were drafted in the first 14 picks of the draft, in this order:

Cabrera

Goldschmidt

Votto

Davis

Encarnacion

Fielder

Freeman was drafted with the 43rd overall pick in the middle of the fourth round, followed by Eric Hosmer with the 44th overall pick. Diamondbacks outfielder Mark Trumbo, who also qualifies at first base, was drafted with the 46th overall pick. So, the results of this draft tell you two things: 1) if you want a top first baseman, grab one early, and 2) power is being drafted early (Pedro Alvarez was selected at #55 overall).

Getting back to the ADP data, after the top 12-13 first baseman are off the board, that is where the differences of opinion come into play, as there are some differences of opinion on when to draft White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu and Cardinals first baseman Matt Adams. Both have big time power, and are break out candidates in 2014.

There is a wide difference of opinion toward the end of the top 30 first baseman, as Fake Teams writers did not rank four of the last five first baseman in the top 30 first baseman being drafted in the NFBC drafts, including Adam Dunn, Yonder Alonso, James Loney and Mitch Moreland.

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