2014 Minor League Keeper Thoughts: San Francisco Giants

The prospect staff here at Fake Teams has been taking an in-depth look at each major league organization, including our top 10 fantasy prospects, an overview of the organization's minor league system as a whole and potential opportunities for playing time in 2014. Our goal is to provide you with more information as you prepare for minor league drafts for dynasty and keeper leagues, as well as look at players that could potentially be worth watching during the spring, as they could be in line to potentially help your fantasy team. You can find links to the previous posts in the series below.

System Schedule

AL East	AL Central	AL West	NL East	NL Central	NL West
Baltimore	Chicago	Houston	Atlanta	Chicago	Arizona
Boston	Cleveland	Los Angeles	Miami	Cincinnati	Colorado
New York	Detroit	Oakland	New York	Milwaukee	Los Angeles
Tampa Bay	Kansas City	Seattle	Philadelphia	Pittsburgh	San Diego
Toronto	Minnesota	Texas	Washington	St. Louis	San Francisco

Organizational Overview
By Brian Creagh(@briancreagh)

In an uncharacteristically down year, the San Francisco Giants failed to make the playoffs in defending their second World Series title in the previous 3 years. They finished the season 76-86 good for 3^rd in the NL West. The season was marred by poor starting pitching performances as starters Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito, and Ryan Vogelsong consistently buried the team into deep holes the offense couldn't dig them out of. An efficient offense remained one of the Top 10 in the majors and even saw the breakout of long-hyped prospect Brandon Belt. All in all a disappointing year for the franchise, but the pieces are still in place to make some noise in the West this season.

It all starts with best fantasy battery, Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner. Posey has already reached the positional zenith and I believe Bumgarner has a legitimate shot to pass Kershaw this season. 26 and 24 years old respectively, this nucleus will be a formidable tandem as they approach their prime together. They are mixed with an assortment of other pieces hitting their peak position on the aging curve: Pablo Sandoval, Hunter Pence, Brandon Belt, Matt Cain, and Tim Lincecum, and this group certainly has the talent to contend for a playoff berth. The NL West figures to be loaded this season as the Dodgers have built themselves into a powerhouse and the Diamondbacks are poised to have a great rotation and above-average offense. The Giants should be in the race until the end and could get a nice mid-season boost from some high-level prospects ready to make the jump.

The San Francisco farm system lacks high-upside talent, but is deep in pitching prospects and a few advanced bats that could make an impact this season. Crick, Stratton, and Blackburn are three prospects worth owning in every dynasty format and should all evolve into solid rotation pieces. Mac Williamson and Gary Brown are two college bats with some fantasy upside. Brown struggled mightily in AAA but his speed and defense can still help him carve out a role. Williamson is more of a power play and another year away, but could take over in LF and establish himself as an everyday regular. The system is rounded out by some borderline rotation/bullpen arms in Escobar, Mejia, and Hembree. Not much upside here, but a handful of guys who could prove to be fantasy relevant down the line.

2013 Graduates

The following players have surpassed their rookie maximums of 130 AB, 50 IP, or 45 days of service time prior to September 1st of this year.

Jean Machi (innings), George Kontos (innings), Sandy Rosario (service time), Nick Noonan (service time)

Major League Opportunities in 2014
By Brian Creagh(@briancreagh)

The outlook is bleak if you are prospect mining in San Francisco for 2014 fantasy value. The everyday lineup is filled with players in their prime and coming off of solid seasons, leaving no room for a rookie to breakthrough. The free agent acquisition of Michael Morse sealed up the only gaping hole, Left field, which had an outside shot of giving Gary Brown an opportunity pending a strong spring showing. Looking down the line into possibly next season, 2B could provide some opportunity with a then 39 year old Marco Scutaro manning the keystone. 3B could also open up depending on the resolution of free agent to-be Pablo Sandoval. I would imagine he sticks around given his ties with the organization, but not much else comes off the books for 2015 so he's the only name of note.

The rotation offers a little bit more hope. Cain, Bumgarner, and Lincecum are locked up for at least the next two seasons, but recently acquired Tim Hudson and Ryan Vogelsong are doubtful to start a full 30 game season in 2014. This opens the doors for some of the plethora of pitching prospects to fill the void. Arms like Edwin Escobar, Tyler Blach, and Kyle Crick could see time this season if an extended injury were to occur in the rotation. The bullpen is currently solidified with Lopez, Romo, and Casilla locking down the backend. There aren't any fantasy-relevant names to consider for a future closers role or for a brief bullpen appearance just to get some work in. I'm not sure a sleeper prospect exists in this system when considering only a 2014 return.

By Matt Mattingly(@mattmattingly81)

Our top 10 fantasy prospect rankings are based upon standard 5x5 fantasy baseball leagues, with a balancing of ceiling and present value. While we are having discussions regarding these lists as a collective group, the top 10 fantasy prospect rankings are finalized by the writer listed above. Players are no longer considered prospects once they exceed either 130 at bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 days of service time in the Majors prior to September 1st.

In a system that lacks high-end talent, Crick stands alone at the top. An easy pick for the #1 fantasy prospect in this organization, the big right-hander should be the next homegrown talent to join Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, and Tim Lincecum in the rotation for the San Francisco Giants. With quality stats across the board throughout his time in the minors, everything is in place for this young phenom to have success as a future frontline starter in the major leagues.

The Giants drafted Crick in the 1^st round of the MLB Draft in 2011 with the 49^th overall pick. The 6'4" righty was taken out of Sherman High School in Texas. After signing, Crick logged 7 IP towards the end of the 2011 minor league season. He returned in 2012 to make 22 starts in the South Atlantic League, and put up a 2.51 ERA to go with 10.4 K / per 9 IP. That performance raced Crick up prospect lists as we began to see his name surface near the front of Giants top 10 lists going into 2013, just 18 months after completing high school. If there were any questions as to who this organizations' top prospect was headed into 2013, those thoughts were quickly erased after the season began.

The Texas native was moved up to the High-A California League to begin the 2013 season. After his first 3 starts in 2013, Crick suffered an oblique injury that put him on the shelf for the next 2 months. He returned from injury in mid-June, and shortly after was selected to play in the Future's Game. Crick finished the season in the CAL League and recorded 14 starts with a 1.57 ERA and 12.5 K / per 9 IP on the year. After the season ended, Crick played in the Arizona Fall League and pitched well against some of the best prospects in baseball.

The 21 year-old appears to be ticketed to begin the 2014 season in Double-A with the Richmond Flying Squirrels. If Crick stays on his current pace, we could see him in San Francisco sometime during the 2015 season. His ability to miss bats should play immediately at AT&T Ballpark. The Giants' top prospect could become a top 20 fantasy SP in the future, with the ability to make his way onto strikeout leaderboards on a yearly basis. Crick often draws comparisons to teammate Matt Cain. If Crick can have a career similar to that of Cain, which seems to be a realistic expectation, fantasy managers will be very fortunate to have this SP on their squad in the future.

#2 Chris Stratton (RHP)
FANTASY STATISTICS (ALL LEVELS)
W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
9	0	3.27	1.33	123
SECONDARY STATISTICS
IP	HR/9	GO/AO	BB%	K%
132	0.34	1.13	8.5%	22.2%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE ON 1/1/2014	B/T	ROSTER STATUS		LEVELS
23	R/R	Not On 40 Man Roster (Protect After 2015 Season)		A

This is where things start to get really interesting. The most popular websites have been ranking Stratton anywhere from 2^nd to completely leaving him off of Giants top 10 prospect lists. Stratton was actually one of the highest ranked prospects going into a draft that this organization boasts. But the verdict is still out on this 6'3" right handed pitching prospect. The Giants seem to be sold, as they went all in on Stratton and made him their 1^st round selection in 2012.

The 23 year-old played college ball at Mississippi State, where he made the 2011 freshman SEC All-Star Team. Stratton established himself as a top draft prospect when he opened the 2012 college season by outdueling Louisiana State right-hander Kevin Gausman. Stratton made scouts take notice by striking out 17 batters in that game. One thing was for sure, the Giants took notice, as they selected Stratton in the 1st round of the 2012 MLB Draft with the 20th overall pick. Fantasy owners are hoping those strikeouts in college will translate to the big league level.

Stratton logged 16.3 innings after signing towards the end of the 2012 season. He returned in 2013 to play his first full season of profession ball in the SAL League for the Augusta GreenJackets. There he recorded 132 innings pitched with a 3.27 ERA and 123 K's. Already hitting 92-95 with his fastball, Statton's best pitch is actually his swing-and-miss slider, which he uses as his out pitch. At the age of 23, Stratton seems to be low in the system as the Giants have been handling him with caution. We could start to see him move more quickly, with Double-A as a possible starting point to begin the 2014 season. There is still a wide range of possible outcomes for this pitching prospect, with hopes that he will become a quality #3 SP in fantasy leagues.

#3 Clayton Blackburn (RHP)
FANTASY STATISTICS (ALL LEVELS)
W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
7	0	3.65	1.10	138
SECONDARY STATISTICS
IP	HR/9	GO/AO	BB%	K%
133	0.81	1.33	6.4%	25.2%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE ON 1/1/2014	B/T	ROSTER STATUS		LEVELS
21	L/R	Not On 40 Man Roster (Protect After 2015 Season)		A+

The Giants selected Blackburn in the 16th round with the 507th overall pick in the 2011 MLB Draft. The big righty was ready to attend the University of Oklahoma, but opted to sign with the Giants after being selected late in the draft. Baseball America's post-draft report card listed Blackburn as having the third best pro debut from a high-school prospect in the draft. So far, Blackburn has turned out to be quite a find, impressing at each stop in the minors up to this point.

After quickly signing with the Giants, Blackburn reported to the Arizona Rookie League, where he posted a 1.08 ERA in 33 innings pitched. In 2012, Blackburn jumped up to the South Atlantic League, where he made 22 starts on the year. He was just as impressive with a 2.54 ERA and 143 K's in 131.3 IP. The hurler headed to the CAL League in 2013, where he made 23 starts as his ERA rose up to 3.65 on the year. He was still striking out over a batter an inning as he kept his walk rate down once again. Blackburn's fastball is recorded at 95 mph, while his best attribute is his pinpoint control. Blackburn has totaled 297.7 innings pitched in his minor league career thus far, but he is still at a point in his development where his ceiling and floor are still very far apart.

There are many different possible outcomes for this pitching prospect, and many different websites will give you their own unique view on what Blackburn might offer in the future. The truth is, only this 21 year-old will decide where he is headed next. If Blackburn can get his ERA back down in 2014, while keeping his walk totals low and strikeouts rates high, he could start to show up on top prospect lists rankings. But if the Oklahoma native continues to head in the wrong direction, he could become the forgotten man in a system filled with similar pitching prospects.

#4 Mac Williamson (OF)
FANTASY STATISTICS (ALL LEVELS)
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.292	94	25	89	10
SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
599	0.375	0.504	8.5%	22.0%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE ON 1/1/2014	B/T	ROSTER STATUS		LEVELS
23	R/R	Not on 40 Man Roster (Protect After 2015 Season)		A+

The Wake Forest Demon Deacon was selected by the Giants in the 3^rd round of the 2012 MLB Player draft. Williamson was a pitcher throughout his high-school days, but an arm injury forced the move to the outfield, which has worked out well for the prospect. As you can tell from the other player write-ups, the Giants like their large prospects, and Williamson is no different. This right-handed hitting outfielder checks in at 6'5" and 240 pounds.

Williamson has done nothing but hit since signing with the Giants. After signing, he split time between two levels in 2012. Williamson totaled a .321 BA, 9 HR, and 32 RBI in just 33 games played. The outfielder spent his first full season playing for the San Jose Giants in the CAL League. There he amassed one of the finest stat lines in the league with a .292 BA, 25 HR, 89 RBI, 94 R, and 10 SB. The 23 year-old prospect will likely head to Double-A Richmond to begin the 2014 season. Williamson's power tool is very loud, albeit very raw as well. There are concerns about his hit tool, but the performance in the low minors so far speaks for itself. If Williamson hits like he has in the past as he tackles the higher levels of the minor leagues, he could take Gary Brown's old tag as their top hitting prospect and left fielder of the future very quickly.

#5 Martin Agosta (RHP)
FANTASY STATISTICS (ALL LEVELS)
W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
9	0	2.07	1.10	109
SECONDARY STATISTICS
IP	HR/9	GO/AO	BB%	K%
91.2	0.39	0.63	11.6%	29.3%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE ON 1/1/2014	B/T	ROSTER STATUS		LEVELS
22	R/R	Not On 40 Man Roster (Protect After 2015 Season)		A

This right-handed pitching prospect was selected in the 2^nd round of the 2012 MLB Player Draft with the 84^th overall pick. Agosta doesn't feature overpowering stuff, as his fastball tops out at 92 mph. The righty relies on his command and keeping hitters guessing, but can still rack up the strikeouts. The Giants sent Agosta to the SAL League for his first full-season of pro ball. The 22 year-old performed admirably, recording a 9-3 record, along with a 2.06 ERA and 109 K's in 91.2 IP. The verdict is still out on this prospect, as some view him as a potential starter, and others see a future in the bullpen.

The Giants could skip Martin Agosta and Chris Stratton over the hitter-friendly CAL League, so there is the chance they could join a loaded rotation in Double-A San Jose that could feature many of this system's top pitching prospects. Agosta would likely slide in behind Kyle Crick, Clayton Blackburn, Chris Stratton, and join Ty Blach in the back-end of the rotation. Once that wave of pitching starts to make its way to San Francisco, it is difficult to see where everyone would fit in. How these prospects develop in 2014 will be key in determining whether they will become starters, relievers, or trade bait for the Giants.

This left-handed pitching prospect was also selected in the 2012 MLB Draft with a 5^th round pick out of Creighton University. At the age of 23, Blach is expected to move quickly through the system. He did not start his professional career until 2013, but the Giants aggressively placed him at High-A ball in San Jose. Blach didn't disappoint, posting a 2.90 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and 117 K's in 130.3 IP in the hitter-friendly environment of the California League. After pitching alongside Kyle Crick and Clayton Blackburn in 2013, it will be interesting to see how each of these prospects progress going forward.

Blach's fastball is his primary weapon, which usually sits around 89-92 mph, but can reach as high as 95 mph. He uses his change-up as his secondary pitch, which Baseball America considers his best off-speed pitch. The lefty also uses a curve ball that can come in on right-handed hitters' feet and cause a lot of swing-and-misses. Scouts consider his command to be advanced, which will aid him in his quick progression through the minor leagues. If Blach continues at this rate, he will be racing this organization's other top pitching prospects to the majors in a wave that could be coming sometime in 2015. Once he arrives, Blach could settle nicely into the back end of the pitching rotation or become a valuable piece of the bullpen in San Francisco.

Escobar was signed by the Texas Rangers organization in July of 2008. The Giants traded for the rights to this lefty in 2010 for LHP Ben Snyder. Until 2012, Escobar was very inconsistent throughout his minor league career. After the prospect posted a career ERA over 5 in the minors throughout the 2011 season, something started to click. In 2012, Escobar spent the year in the SAL League and posted a 2.97 ERA to go with close to a strikeout an inning. He then followed that up by splitting time between the CAL and Eastern Leagues in 2013, while posting a 2.80 ERA and 10.2 K / per 9 IP. After solid back-to-back campaigns, Escobar has firmly established himself as a legitimate prospect.

It appears as though Escobar has finally started to tap into his potential over the past two seasons, and scouts have taken notice. Like many of the Giant's other top pitching prospects, command is one of Escobar's greatest strengths. The left-handed prospect might not need much more time to develop in the minor leagues. It will be interesting to see if the Giants send Escobar back to Double-A to begin the 2013 season, or if they feel he is ready for Triple-A. Either way, we should see him progress his way through the minors and into AT&T Ballpark soon.

#8 Adalberto Mejia (LHP)
FANTASY STATISTICS (ALL LEVELS)
W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
7	0	3.33	1.14	91
SECONDARY STATISTICS
IP	HR/9	GO/AO	BB%	K%
92	1.27	0.71	6.6%	24.1%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE ON 1/1/2014	B/T	ROSTER STATUS		LEVELS
20	L/L	Not On 40 Man Roster (Protect After 2015 Season)		A+, AAA

The Giants signed Mejia out of the Dominican Republic in February of 2011. He was sent to full season ball at the age of 18, and recorded a 1.42 ERA in 76 IP. Mejia returned in 2012 to pitch in the SAL League, where his numbers weren't quite as impressive. He spent the year there, and totaled a 3.97 ERA in 106.7 IP. In 2013, Mejia demonstrated more consistency while putting up a 3.33 ERA and 91 K's in 92 IP. Like so many other prospects on this list, the lefty has been up and down from year to year. In a system full of mysteries, Mejia remains quite the enigma himself.

Mejia was sent to the Arizona Fall League, where his performance left something to be desired. In just 17 innings pitched, the right-hander gave up 16 earned runs. After making 1 start for the Triple-A Fresno Grizzlies to end the 2013 season, Mejia has the potential to return there to begin 2014. After raising his prospect stock in 2013, it will be interesting to see where the lefty takes things from here. Mejia is closer to the majors than many of the pitchers listed above, and should get his shot soon. The 6'3" lefty could eventually slide into the back of the rotation in San Francisco, and his performance will dictate whether he stays in the rotation or becomes another bullpen arm for the Giants.

This catching prospect was selected out of Oregon State University in the 2^nd round of the 2011 MLB Player Draft. During his sophomore season at OSU, Susac sustained a wrist injury that ended his sophomore season before entering the draft. This along with concerns over signability issues were considered the main reasons this prospect fell out of the 1^st round of the draft. His future outlook is still murky, after never accumulating more than 100 at-bats in either of his two college seasons. How this prospect develops over the 2014 season should give us a better indication of what we might be able to expect in the future.

Susac receives much of his prospect stock from his defensive abilities on the field. Although his performance with the bat leaves more to be desired, his defense should allow him to settle in as an everyday catcher at the big league level. Susac has hit for a batting average around .250 in his first 2 full minor league seasons. The right-handed bat has displayed enough power and has continued to make improvements throughout his time in the minors. The possibility of Susac developing into a fantasy relevant catcher, capable of hitting 10 to 15 HR's a year, is not out of the question.

The 25 year-old relief pitcher has been found on Giants' top 10 prospect lists for years now. But after putting up dominant ratios in his first two seasons in the minors, the righty has posted an ERA over 4 each of the past 2 years. His excellent 2011 season earned him the tag of "closer of the future" for this ball club. Even after recent struggles in 2012 and 2013, Hembree is still carrying that label and has been racking up saves at every stop in the minors so far. Hembree has accumulated 84 saves while putting up nice strikeout totals in the minors over the past 3 years.

After spending the 2013 season in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League, Hembree is knocking on the door to the big leagues. With the emergence of Sergio Romo as the team's closer, Hembree will most likely be ticketed for a set-up role to begin his career in the majors. Romo is still just 31 years-old to enter the 2014 season, so he could hold onto the role for the foreseeable future. Hembree will be awaiting his chance to close out games, but he might have to settle in as a long-term set-up man. We could see Hembree get promoted sometime during the 2014 season, with a chance to make the club out of spring training.

Other Interesting Prospects
By Matt Mattingly (@mattmattingly81)

Gary Brown - Once considered one of the top prospects in this system, Brown's recent performance has killed his prospect stock. If the outfielder would have continued to perform at the level we saw in 2011, there is no doubt he would be the starting left fielder at AT&T Ballpark by now. But after a downtick in performance in 2012, followed by a crash in 2013, Brown is starting to look more and more like a future 4^th outfielder in the major leagues.

Christian Arroyo - The Giants 2013 1st round pick will make his way onto many websites top 10 lists. But that has to do more with his arm strength and positional value rather than his bat. Arroyo is a decent contact hitter, which could lead to a respectable batting average in the majors. But his other tools are in question, as the 2013 1^st round selection lacks enough power or speed to become a relevant fantasy option in the future.

About the Authors

Jason Hunt is a contributing writer for Fake Teams, specializing in the minor leagues and prospects.
Follow him on Twitter @jasonsbaseball

Brian Creagh is a contributing writer for Fake Teams, specializing in fantasy baseball and the minor leagues.
Follow him on Twitter @BrianCreagh

Matt Mattingly is a contributing writer for Fake Teams, specializing in fantasy baseball and the minor leagues.
Follow him on Twitter @MattMattingly81

Sources

Baseball America
Baseball Prospectus
Baseball Reference
Fangraphs
McCovey Chronicles
MLB.com
MILB.com
Bleacher Report
Minor League Ball
Vimeo
Youtube