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Today we head into the home stretch of our deep league drafting series to look at starting pitchers. Along with many fantasy experts I usually advocate a wait-on-pitching draft strategy, electing to eschew the guys on the bump until maybe round 4 or 5 depending on each unique draft situation. However, my research here was surprising and may cause me to rethink this strategy. If you have some thoughts about what I found please opine below in the comments.
First, though, the methodology. I looked at all starting pitchers from the 2011-13 seasons who completed the qualified amount of innings pitched (162 IP/season). Admittedly, this is going to make the list shorter than most might think as trying to throw a baseball really hard and fast is difficult on the arm, they say. At any rate, I then sorted the players by FIP- and xFIP-, (Fielding Independent Pitching, and expected Fielding Independent Pitching) the sabermetric equivalent to wRC+ for hitters. It's basically a way to easily categorize how well a pitcher performed against his peers. League average is 100, and any number at or below that number would be at or above average.
In fantasy this is what we want, especially as it pertains to pitchers. We want guys who will eat innings without getting injured, and we want guys who perform at least average or above average. Your team cannot win without these two factors. In the last three seasons there were 53, 48, and 52 pitchers who met these criteria. Considering that in most standard leagues you have to start at least two starting pitchers, and most people will roster 4-8 this could be a shallow pool from which to draw. Let's say a typical manager rosters 5 SPs. In your standard 12-team league, you've a pretty good chance to have a whole bunch of league average or better pitchers on your roster. However, deep leaguers know the challenge here. Chances are you'll have a couple of guys that are great, and then you'll have to really do some homework to find productive guys coming back from injury or rookies that haven't yet made a name for themselves.
More observations after the break:
2011 Stats
Player | Team | W | L | SV | G | GS | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP- | xFIP- | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Roy Halladay | Phillies | 19 | 6 | 32 | 32 | 233.2 | 8.47 | 1.35 | 0.39 | 0.298 | 78.10% | 50.90% | 5.10% | 2.35 | 56 | 70 | |
2 | Cliff Lee | Phillies | 17 | 8 | 32 | 32 | 232.2 | 9.21 | 1.62 | 0.7 | 0.291 | 81.40% | 46.30% | 9.00% | 2.4 | 67 | 69 | |
3 | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 21 | 5 | 33 | 33 | 233.1 | 9.57 | 2.08 | 0.58 | 0.269 | 78.60% | 43.20% | 6.70% | 2.28 | 67 | 74 | |
4 | CC Sabathia | Yankees | 19 | 8 | 33 | 33 | 237.1 | 8.72 | 2.31 | 0.64 | 0.318 | 77.00% | 46.60% | 8.40% | 3 | 69 | 75 | |
5 | Justin Verlander | Tigers | 24 | 5 | 34 | 34 | 251 | 8.96 | 2.04 | 0.86 | 0.236 | 80.30% | 40.20% | 8.80% | 2.4 | 73 | 77 | |
6 | Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 13 | 13 | 33 | 33 | 204.2 | 8.4 | 2.02 | 0.53 | 0.322 | 72.40% | 46.00% | 6.20% | 3.21 | 73 | 80 | |
7 | Brandon McCarthy | Athletics | 9 | 9 | 25 | 25 | 170.2 | 6.49 | 1.32 | 0.58 | 0.296 | 67.60% | 46.70% | 6.40% | 3.32 | 73 | 82 | |
8 | Matt Garza | Cubs | 10 | 10 | 31 | 31 | 198 | 8.95 | 2.86 | 0.64 | 0.306 | 69.70% | 46.30% | 7.70% | 3.32 | 74 | 83 | |
9 | Zack Greinke | Brewers | 16 | 6 | 28 | 28 | 171.2 | 10.54 | 2.36 | 1 | 0.318 | 69.80% | 47.30% | 13.60% | 3.83 | 76 | 66 | |
10 | C.J. Wilson | Rangers | 16 | 7 | 34 | 34 | 223.1 | 8.3 | 2.98 | 0.64 | 0.287 | 73.60% | 49.30% | 8.20% | 2.94 | 76 | 84 | |
11 | Cole Hamels | Phillies | 14 | 9 | 31 | 31 | 213 | 8.15 | 1.86 | 0.76 | 0.254 | 78.40% | 51.90% | 9.50% | 2.75 | 77 | 78 | |
12 | Dan Haren | Angels | 15 | 10 | 34 | 34 | 237.1 | 7.24 | 1.25 | 0.76 | 0.272 | 71.50% | 42.50% | 7.50% | 3.19 | 77 | 82 | |
13 | Doug Fister | - - - | 10 | 13 | 31 | 31 | 213.1 | 6.07 | 1.56 | 0.46 | 0.273 | 73.50% | 47.90% | 5.20% | 2.87 | 79 | 90 | |
14 | Ian Kennedy | Diamondbacks | 21 | 4 | 33 | 33 | 222 | 8.03 | 2.23 | 0.77 | 0.27 | 79.20% | 38.60% | 7.70% | 2.88 | 80 | 91 | |
15 | Matt Cain | Giants | 12 | 11 | 33 | 33 | 221.2 | 7.27 | 2.56 | 0.37 | 0.26 | 70.60% | 41.70% | 3.70% | 2.88 | 80 | 98 | |
16 | Chris Carpenter | Cardinals | 11 | 9 | 34 | 34 | 237.1 | 7.24 | 2.09 | 0.61 | 0.312 | 73.20% | 46.60% | 7.50% | 3.45 | 82 | 86 | |
17 | Matt Harrison | Rangers | 14 | 9 | 30 | 30 | 183.2 | 6.17 | 2.79 | 0.64 | 0.293 | 72.30% | 47.30% | 7.10% | 3.43 | 82 | 95 | |
18 | Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | 8 | 11 | 26 | 26 | 161.1 | 6.92 | 1.73 | 0.67 | 0.291 | 74.20% | 39.40% | 5.90% | 3.18 | 82 | 98 | |
19 | Daniel Hudson | Diamondbacks | 16 | 12 | 33 | 33 | 222 | 6.85 | 2.03 | 0.69 | 0.295 | 70.50% | 41.70% | 6.40% | 3.49 | 82 | 98 | |
20 | Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 14 | 14 | 33 | 33 | 233.2 | 8.55 | 2.58 | 0.73 | 0.307 | 72.70% | 50.20% | 9.50% | 3.47 | 83 | 78 | |
21 | Jered Weaver | Angels | 18 | 8 | 33 | 33 | 235.2 | 7.56 | 2.14 | 0.76 | 0.25 | 82.60% | 32.50% | 6.30% | 2.41 | 83 | 94 | |
22 | Justin Masterson | Indians | 12 | 10 | 33 | 33 | 215 | 6.57 | 2.68 | 0.46 | 0.303 | 72.80% | 55.10% | 6.30% | 3.22 | 84 | 90 | |
23 | Josh Beckett | Red Sox | 13 | 7 | 30 | 30 | 193 | 8.16 | 2.42 | 0.98 | 0.245 | 80.00% | 40.10% | 9.60% | 2.89 | 85 | 89 | |
24 | David Price | Rays | 12 | 13 | 34 | 34 | 224.1 | 8.75 | 2.53 | 0.88 | 0.281 | 73.30% | 44.30% | 9.70% | 3.49 | 86 | 82 | |
25 | Anibal Sanchez | Marlins | 8 | 9 | 32 | 32 | 196.1 | 9.26 | 2.93 | 0.92 | 0.31 | 75.00% | 44.30% | 10.40% | 3.67 | 86 | 84 | |
26 | Jaime Garcia | Cardinals | 13 | 7 | 32 | 32 | 194.2 | 7.21 | 2.31 | 0.69 | 0.318 | 66.80% | 53.60% | 8.90% | 3.56 | 86 | 86 | |
27 | Alexi Ogando | Rangers | 13 | 8 | 29 | 29 | 167 | 6.68 | 2.32 | 0.86 | 0.265 | 71.00% | 36.50% | 8.00% | 3.56 | 86 | 97 | |
28 | Tim Lincecum | Giants | 13 | 14 | 33 | 33 | 217 | 9.12 | 3.57 | 0.62 | 0.281 | 78.50% | 47.90% | 8.00% | 2.74 | 87 | 87 | |
29 | Ubaldo Jimenez | - - - | 10 | 13 | 32 | 32 | 188.1 | 8.6 | 3.73 | 0.81 | 0.314 | 65.00% | 47.20% | 9.30% | 4.68 | 87 | 95 | |
30 | Brandon Morrow | Blue Jays | 11 | 11 | 30 | 30 | 179.1 | 10.19 | 3.46 | 1.05 | 0.299 | 65.50% | 36.00% | 10.40% | 4.72 | 88 | 87 | |
31 | James Shields | Rays | 16 | 12 | 33 | 33 | 249.1 | 8.12 | 2.35 | 0.94 | 0.258 | 79.60% | 46.20% | 11.10% | 2.82 | 89 | 80 | |
32 | Tim Hudson | Braves | 16 | 10 | 33 | 33 | 215 | 6.61 | 2.34 | 0.59 | 0.273 | 72.40% | 56.70% | 8.70% | 3.22 | 89 | 90 | |
33 | Mat Latos | Padres | 9 | 14 | 31 | 31 | 194.1 | 8.57 | 2.87 | 0.74 | 0.284 | 71.40% | 42.80% | 7.30% | 3.47 | 89 | 91 | |
34 | Gavin Floyd | White Sox | 12 | 12 | 30 | 30 | 192.2 | 7.05 | 2.1 | 0.98 | 0.278 | 67.50% | 43.90% | 9.90% | 4.34 | 89 | 92 | |
35 | Edwin Jackson | - - - | 12 | 9 | 31 | 31 | 198.2 | 6.7 | 2.81 | 0.72 | 0.33 | 73.70% | 43.90% | 8.20% | 3.81 | 89 | 94 | |
36 | Michael Pineda | Mariners | 9 | 10 | 28 | 28 | 171 | 9.11 | 2.89 | 0.95 | 0.258 | 69.70% | 36.30% | 9.00% | 3.74 | 90 | 87 | |
37 | Ricky Nolasco | Marlins | 10 | 12 | 33 | 33 | 206 | 6.47 | 1.92 | 0.87 | 0.331 | 66.20% | 45.10% | 9.50% | 4.67 | 90 | 92 | |
38 | Jon Lester | Red Sox | 15 | 9 | 31 | 31 | 191.2 | 8.55 | 3.52 | 0.94 | 0.286 | 78.10% | 50.50% | 11.40% | 3.47 | 91 | 90 | |
39 | John Danks | White Sox | 8 | 12 | 27 | 27 | 170.1 | 7.13 | 2.43 | 1 | 0.313 | 70.10% | 43.80% | 9.90% | 4.33 | 91 | 94 | |
40 | Javier Vazquez | Marlins | 13 | 11 | 32 | 32 | 192.2 | 7.57 | 2.34 | 0.98 | 0.279 | 69.30% | 34.20% | 8.00% | 3.69 | 91 | 100 | |
41 | Yovani Gallardo | Brewers | 17 | 10 | 33 | 33 | 207.1 | 8.99 | 2.56 | 1.17 | 0.291 | 74.80% | 46.60% | 12.70% | 3.52 | 92 | 83 | |
42 | Derek Holland | Rangers | 16 | 5 | 32 | 32 | 198 | 7.36 | 3.05 | 1 | 0.305 | 72.80% | 46.40% | 11.00% | 3.95 | 92 | 93 | |
43 | Gio Gonzalez | Athletics | 16 | 12 | 32 | 32 | 202 | 8.78 | 4.05 | 0.76 | 0.287 | 77.10% | 47.50% | 8.90% | 3.12 | 93 | 92 | |
44 | Shaun Marcum | Brewers | 13 | 7 | 33 | 33 | 200.2 | 7.09 | 2.56 | 0.99 | 0.261 | 73.60% | 37.20% | 8.70% | 3.54 | 95 | 101 | |
45 | Mark Buehrle | White Sox | 13 | 9 | 31 | 31 | 205.1 | 4.78 | 1.97 | 0.92 | 0.294 | 73.30% | 44.90% | 8.60% | 3.59 | 95 | 102 | |
46 | Jhoulys Chacin | Rockies | 11 | 14 | 31 | 31 | 194 | 6.96 | 4.04 | 0.93 | 0.261 | 74.50% | 56.30% | 12.20% | 3.62 | 96 | 103 | |
47 | Ivan Nova | Yankees | 16 | 3 | 27 | 27 | 164.2 | 5.36 | 3.12 | 0.71 | 0.281 | 73.40% | 52.90% | 8.50% | 3.66 | 96 | 103 | |
48 | Derek Lowe | Braves | 9 | 17 | 34 | 34 | 187 | 6.59 | 3.37 | 0.67 | 0.327 | 65.90% | 59.00% | 10.20% | 5.05 | 97 | 95 | |
49 | Ryan Dempster | Cubs | 10 | 14 | 34 | 34 | 202.1 | 8.5 | 3.65 | 1.02 | 0.324 | 70.40% | 44.10% | 11.20% | 4.8 | 98 | 96 | |
50 | Rick Porcello | Tigers | 14 | 9 | 31 | 31 | 182 | 5.14 | 2.27 | 0.89 | 0.316 | 67.40% | 51.40% | 9.90% | 4.75 | 98 | 99 | |
51 | Kyle Lohse | Cardinals | 14 | 8 | 30 | 30 | 188.1 | 5.3 | 2.01 | 0.76 | 0.269 | 71.30% | 41.40% | 7.20% | 3.39 | 98 | 105 | |
52 | Max Scherzer | Tigers | 15 | 9 | 33 | 33 | 195 | 8.03 | 2.58 | 1.34 | 0.314 | 73.70% | 40.30% | 12.60% | 4.43 | 100 | 91 | |
53 | Jeff Francis | Royals | 6 | 16 | 31 | 31 | 183 | 4.48 | 1.92 | 0.93 | 0.316 | 68.80% | 47.10% | 8.50% | 4.82 | 100 | 106 |
2012 Stats
Player | Team | W | L | SV | G | GS | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP- | xFIP- | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Justin Verlander | Tigers | 17 | 8 | 33 | 33 | 238.1 | 9.03 | 2.27 | 0.72 | 0.273 | 76.40% | 42.30% | 8.30% | 2.64 | 69 | 80 | |
2 | Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 13 | 9 | 33 | 33 | 232 | 8.65 | 2.17 | 0.54 | 0.308 | 75.00% | 48.90% | 7.70% | 3.06 | 73 | 77 | |
3 | Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 21 | 8 | 32 | 32 | 199.1 | 9.35 | 3.43 | 0.41 | 0.267 | 74.10% | 48.20% | 5.80% | 2.89 | 73 | 87 | |
4 | Yu Darvish | Rangers | 16 | 9 | 29 | 29 | 191.1 | 10.4 | 4.19 | 0.66 | 0.295 | 70.50% | 46.20% | 9.10% | 3.9 | 75 | 85 | |
5 | Wade Miley | Diamondbacks | 15 | 11 | 29 | 29 | 186 | 6.87 | 1.6 | 0.63 | 0.299 | 71.50% | 42.40% | 6.60% | 3.34 | 75 | 95 | |
6 | Chris Sale | White Sox | 17 | 8 | 29 | 29 | 191 | 9 | 2.36 | 0.9 | 0.294 | 80.40% | 44.70% | 11.70% | 3.06 | 76 | 78 | |
7 | David Price | Rays | 20 | 5 | 31 | 31 | 211 | 8.74 | 2.52 | 0.68 | 0.285 | 81.10% | 53.10% | 10.50% | 2.56 | 77 | 75 | |
8 | Max Scherzer | Tigers | 16 | 7 | 32 | 32 | 187.2 | 11.08 | 2.88 | 1.1 | 0.333 | 76.50% | 36.50% | 11.60% | 3.74 | 77 | 78 | |
9 | CC Sabathia | Yankees | 15 | 6 | 28 | 28 | 200 | 8.87 | 1.98 | 0.99 | 0.288 | 71.60% | 48.20% | 12.50% | 3.38 | 78 | 77 | |
10 | Zack Greinke | - - - | 15 | 5 | 34 | 34 | 212.1 | 8.48 | 2.29 | 0.76 | 0.306 | 74.50% | 49.20% | 10.20% | 3.48 | 78 | 80 | |
11 | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 14 | 9 | 33 | 33 | 227.2 | 9.05 | 2.49 | 0.63 | 0.262 | 77.90% | 46.90% | 8.10% | 2.53 | 78 | 83 | |
12 | Cliff Lee | Phillies | 6 | 9 | 30 | 30 | 211 | 8.83 | 1.19 | 1.11 | 0.309 | 78.60% | 45.00% | 11.80% | 3.16 | 80 | 79 | |
13 | Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | 14 | 13 | 32 | 32 | 198.2 | 8.34 | 2.36 | 0.68 | 0.315 | 67.80% | 50.80% | 9.90% | 3.94 | 82 | 83 | |
14 | Johnny Cueto | Reds | 19 | 9 | 33 | 33 | 217 | 7.05 | 2.03 | 0.62 | 0.296 | 78.80% | 48.90% | 7.90% | 2.78 | 83 | 93 | |
15 | Cole Hamels | Phillies | 17 | 6 | 31 | 31 | 215.1 | 9.03 | 2.17 | 1 | 0.29 | 78.10% | 43.40% | 11.90% | 3.05 | 84 | 83 | |
16 | Jarrod Parker | Athletics | 13 | 8 | 29 | 29 | 181.1 | 6.95 | 3.13 | 0.55 | 0.29 | 74.30% | 44.30% | 6.80% | 3.47 | 85 | 95 | |
17 | R.A. Dickey | Mets | 20 | 6 | 33 | 33 | 232.2 | 8.9 | 2.09 | 0.89 | 0.276 | 80.20% | 46.00% | 10.90% | 2.67 | 86 | 84 | |
18 | Anibal Sanchez | - - - | 9 | 13 | 31 | 31 | 195.2 | 7.68 | 2.21 | 0.92 | 0.31 | 70.20% | 46.40% | 10.70% | 3.86 | 87 | 90 | |
19 | Josh Johnson | Marlins | 8 | 14 | 31 | 31 | 191.1 | 7.76 | 3.06 | 0.66 | 0.302 | 71.90% | 46.20% | 8.40% | 3.81 | 87 | 95 | |
20 | Jake Peavy | White Sox | 11 | 12 | 32 | 32 | 219 | 7.97 | 2.01 | 1.11 | 0.272 | 76.30% | 36.50% | 9.70% | 3.37 | 87 | 97 | |
21 | James Shields | Rays | 15 | 10 | 33 | 33 | 227.2 | 8.82 | 2.29 | 0.99 | 0.292 | 71.90% | 52.30% | 13.40% | 3.52 | 88 | 78 | |
22 | Jeff Samardzija | Cubs | 9 | 13 | 28 | 28 | 174.2 | 9.27 | 2.89 | 1.03 | 0.296 | 73.00% | 44.60% | 12.80% | 3.81 | 88 | 87 | |
23 | Ryan Dempster | - - - | 12 | 8 | 28 | 28 | 173 | 7.96 | 2.71 | 0.99 | 0.277 | 75.70% | 43.50% | 10.70% | 3.38 | 88 | 94 | |
24 | Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | 12 | 8 | 32 | 32 | 195.2 | 7.04 | 1.98 | 0.83 | 0.288 | 79.30% | 43.40% | 9.20% | 2.94 | 90 | 97 | |
25 | Hiroki Kuroda | Yankees | 16 | 11 | 33 | 33 | 219.2 | 6.84 | 2.09 | 1.02 | 0.281 | 77.70% | 52.30% | 13.00% | 3.32 | 91 | 89 | |
26 | Lance Lynn | Cardinals | 17 | 5 | 29 | 29 | 169 | 9.27 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.316 | 76.40% | 43.90% | 10.30% | 3.67 | 92 | 92 | |
27 | Rick Porcello | Tigers | 10 | 12 | 31 | 31 | 176.1 | 5.46 | 2.25 | 0.82 | 0.344 | 69.00% | 53.20% | 11.50% | 4.59 | 92 | 94 | |
28 | Matt Harrison | Rangers | 18 | 11 | 32 | 32 | 213.1 | 5.61 | 2.49 | 0.93 | 0.284 | 78.60% | 49.00% | 10.50% | 3.29 | 92 | 100 | |
29 | A.J. Burnett | Pirates | 16 | 10 | 31 | 31 | 202.1 | 8.01 | 2.76 | 0.8 | 0.294 | 74.10% | 56.90% | 12.70% | 3.51 | 93 | 87 | |
30 | Matt Cain | Giants | 16 | 5 | 32 | 32 | 219.1 | 7.92 | 2.09 | 0.86 | 0.259 | 79.00% | 37.40% | 8.40% | 2.79 | 93 | 98 | |
31 | Kyle Lohse | Cardinals | 16 | 3 | 33 | 33 | 211 | 6.1 | 1.62 | 0.81 | 0.262 | 77.20% | 40.50% | 8.20% | 2.86 | 93 | 101 | |
32 | Trevor Cahill | Diamondbacks | 13 | 12 | 32 | 32 | 200 | 7.02 | 3.33 | 0.72 | 0.289 | 71.40% | 61.20% | 12.30% | 3.78 | 94 | 96 | |
33 | Jered Weaver | Angels | 20 | 5 | 30 | 30 | 188.2 | 6.77 | 2.15 | 0.95 | 0.241 | 79.20% | 36.00% | 8.60% | 2.81 | 94 | 101 | |
34 | Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 16 | 11 | 32 | 32 | 208.1 | 8.25 | 2.12 | 0.99 | 0.276 | 73.50% | 47.90% | 11.70% | 3.37 | 95 | 88 | |
35 | Scott Diamond | Twins | 12 | 9 | 27 | 27 | 173 | 4.68 | 1.61 | 0.88 | 0.292 | 73.30% | 53.40% | 11.40% | 3.54 | 95 | 95 | |
36 | Jon Lester | Red Sox | 9 | 14 | 33 | 33 | 205.1 | 7.28 | 2.98 | 1.1 | 0.312 | 67.60% | 49.20% | 13.90% | 4.82 | 96 | 92 | |
37 | Mat Latos | Reds | 14 | 4 | 33 | 33 | 209.1 | 7.95 | 2.75 | 1.07 | 0.266 | 75.50% | 45.60% | 11.80% | 3.48 | 97 | 97 | |
38 | Lucas Harrell | Astros | 11 | 11 | 32 | 32 | 193.2 | 6.51 | 3.62 | 0.6 | 0.289 | 70.80% | 57.20% | 9.70% | 3.76 | 97 | 99 | |
39 | Tommy Milone | Athletics | 13 | 10 | 31 | 31 | 190 | 6.49 | 1.71 | 1.14 | 0.31 | 73.60% | 38.10% | 10.70% | 3.74 | 98 | 97 | |
40 | Tim Hudson | Braves | 16 | 7 | 28 | 28 | 179 | 5.13 | 2.41 | 0.6 | 0.27 | 71.10% | 55.50% | 8.30% | 3.62 | 98 | 105 | |
41 | Yovani Gallardo | Brewers | 16 | 9 | 33 | 33 | 204 | 9 | 3.57 | 1.15 | 0.29 | 78.40% | 47.70% | 14.90% | 3.66 | 99 | 91 | |
42 | Edwin Jackson | Nationals | 10 | 11 | 31 | 31 | 189.2 | 7.97 | 2.75 | 1.09 | 0.278 | 71.20% | 47.30% | 11.70% | 4.03 | 99 | 97 | |
43 | Ian Kennedy | Diamondbacks | 15 | 12 | 33 | 33 | 208.1 | 8.08 | 2.38 | 1.21 | 0.306 | 74.90% | 37.30% | 10.80% | 4.02 | 99 | 105 | |
44 | Joe Saunders | - - - | 9 | 13 | 28 | 28 | 174.2 | 5.77 | 2.01 | 1.08 | 0.305 | 71.60% | 43.10% | 10.20% | 4.07 | 99 | 107 | |
45 | Ricky Nolasco | Marlins | 12 | 13 | 31 | 31 | 191 | 5.89 | 2.21 | 0.85 | 0.309 | 69.30% | 46.60% | 9.10% | 4.48 | 99 | 107 | |
46 | Homer Bailey | Reds | 13 | 10 | 33 | 33 | 208 | 7.27 | 2.25 | 1.12 | 0.29 | 73.60% | 44.90% | 11.50% | 3.68 | 100 | 101 | |
47 | Josh Beckett | - - - | 7 | 14 | 28 | 28 | 170.1 | 6.97 | 2.75 | 1.11 | 0.294 | 69.40% | 42.50% | 10.80% | 4.65 | 100 | 103 | |
48 | Matt Moore | Rays | 11 | 11 | 31 | 31 | 177.1 | 8.88 | 4.11 | 0.91 | 0.293 | 72.90% | 37.40% | 8.60% | 3.81 | 100 | 105 |
2013 Stats
Player | Team | W | L | SV | G | GS | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP- | xFIP- | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Matt Harvey | Mets | 9 | 5 | 26 | 26 | 178.1 | 9.64 | 1.56 | 0.35 | 0.28 | 77.40% | 47.70% | 4.70% | 2.27 | 55 | 70 | |
2 | Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | 14 | 8 | 29 | 29 | 182 | 9.99 | 2.67 | 0.45 | 0.307 | 78.20% | 45.40% | 5.80% | 2.57 | 59 | 74 | |
3 | Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 12 | 10 | 31 | 31 | 204.1 | 9.51 | 2.03 | 0.66 | 0.314 | 75.10% | 51.40% | 10.00% | 3.04 | 66 | 67 | |
4 | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 16 | 9 | 33 | 33 | 236 | 8.85 | 1.98 | 0.42 | 0.251 | 80.60% | 46.00% | 5.80% | 1.83 | 66 | 76 | |
5 | Max Scherzer | Tigers | 21 | 3 | 32 | 32 | 214.1 | 10.08 | 2.35 | 0.76 | 0.259 | 74.40% | 36.30% | 7.60% | 2.9 | 68 | 80 | |
6 | Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | 19 | 9 | 34 | 34 | 241.2 | 8.16 | 1.3 | 0.56 | 0.305 | 74.50% | 49.10% | 8.10% | 2.94 | 70 | 74 | |
7 | Jose Fernandez | Marlins | 12 | 6 | 28 | 28 | 172.2 | 9.75 | 3.02 | 0.52 | 0.24 | 79.40% | 45.10% | 7.10% | 2.19 | 72 | 82 | |
8 | Cliff Lee | Phillies | 14 | 8 | 31 | 31 | 222.2 | 8.97 | 1.29 | 0.89 | 0.287 | 76.70% | 44.30% | 10.90% | 2.87 | 74 | 74 | |
9 | A.J. Burnett | Pirates | 10 | 11 | 30 | 30 | 191 | 9.85 | 3.16 | 0.52 | 0.305 | 71.80% | 56.50% | 9.10% | 3.3 | 76 | 77 | |
10 | Chris Sale | White Sox | 11 | 14 | 30 | 30 | 214.1 | 9.49 | 1.93 | 0.97 | 0.289 | 77.00% | 46.60% | 12.50% | 3.07 | 77 | 75 | |
11 | Yu Darvish | Rangers | 13 | 9 | 32 | 32 | 209.2 | 11.89 | 3.43 | 1.12 | 0.264 | 83.90% | 41.00% | 14.40% | 2.83 | 78 | 72 | |
12 | David Price | Rays | 10 | 8 | 27 | 27 | 186.2 | 7.28 | 1.3 | 0.77 | 0.298 | 70.00% | 44.90% | 8.60% | 3.33 | 80 | 82 | |
13 | Jhoulys Chacin | Rockies | 14 | 10 | 31 | 31 | 197.1 | 5.75 | 2.78 | 0.5 | 0.288 | 71.90% | 46.80% | 6.20% | 3.47 | 80 | 105 | |
14 | Doug Fister | Tigers | 14 | 9 | 32 | 32 | 207.2 | 6.85 | 1.91 | 0.61 | 0.332 | 73.40% | 54.60% | 9.00% | 3.68 | 81 | 86 | |
15 | Justin Verlander | Tigers | 13 | 12 | 34 | 34 | 218.1 | 8.95 | 3.09 | 0.78 | 0.316 | 74.50% | 38.40% | 7.80% | 3.46 | 81 | 92 | |
16 | Mat Latos | Reds | 14 | 7 | 32 | 32 | 210.2 | 7.99 | 2.48 | 0.6 | 0.299 | 74.60% | 45.10% | 6.90% | 3.16 | 81 | 95 | |
17 | Derek Holland | Rangers | 10 | 9 | 33 | 33 | 213 | 7.99 | 2.7 | 0.85 | 0.307 | 75.10% | 40.80% | 8.80% | 3.42 | 82 | 93 | |
18 | Bartolo Colon | Athletics | 18 | 6 | 30 | 30 | 190.1 | 5.53 | 1.37 | 0.66 | 0.294 | 80.00% | 41.50% | 6.00% | 2.65 | 84 | 100 | |
19 | Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 8 | 9 | 30 | 30 | 183 | 9.39 | 2.75 | 0.79 | 0.263 | 73.20% | 51.50% | 11.10% | 3 | 85 | 84 | |
20 | Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 13 | 9 | 31 | 31 | 201.1 | 8.9 | 2.77 | 0.67 | 0.251 | 75.70% | 46.80% | 8.20% | 2.77 | 86 | 88 | |
21 | Cole Hamels | Phillies | 8 | 14 | 33 | 33 | 220 | 8.26 | 2.05 | 0.86 | 0.295 | 72.50% | 42.70% | 9.10% | 3.6 | 86 | 91 | |
22 | James Shields | Royals | 13 | 9 | 34 | 34 | 228.2 | 7.71 | 2.68 | 0.79 | 0.298 | 79.50% | 41.60% | 8.60% | 3.15 | 86 | 94 | |
23 | Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | 14 | 6 | 33 | 33 | 219.2 | 7.58 | 1.72 | 1.02 | 0.252 | 81.90% | 48.70% | 11.80% | 2.66 | 87 | 83 | |
24 | Homer Bailey | Reds | 11 | 12 | 32 | 32 | 209 | 8.57 | 2.33 | 0.86 | 0.284 | 73.70% | 46.10% | 10.20% | 3.49 | 87 | 89 | |
25 | Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 14 | 8 | 32 | 32 | 208.1 | 7.69 | 2.33 | 0.82 | 0.283 | 75.90% | 46.70% | 10.10% | 3.41 | 87 | 92 | |
26 | Jon Lester | Red Sox | 15 | 8 | 33 | 33 | 213.1 | 7.47 | 2.83 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 73.70% | 45.00% | 8.30% | 3.75 | 87 | 98 | |
27 | Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | 16 | 6 | 30 | 30 | 167.2 | 6.01 | 3.33 | 0.59 | 0.303 | 75.40% | 47.30% | 7.70% | 3.49 | 87 | 108 | |
28 | Rick Porcello | Tigers | 13 | 8 | 29 | 29 | 172.2 | 7.25 | 2.19 | 0.94 | 0.317 | 69.50% | 55.10% | 14.20% | 4.43 | 88 | 81 | |
29 | Hiroki Kuroda | Yankees | 11 | 13 | 32 | 32 | 201.1 | 6.71 | 1.92 | 0.89 | 0.282 | 75.80% | 46.60% | 10.30% | 3.31 | 88 | 91 | |
30 | Justin Masterson | Indians | 14 | 10 | 29 | 29 | 189.1 | 8.94 | 3.57 | 0.62 | 0.286 | 75.10% | 58.00% | 10.80% | 3.52 | 89 | 85 | |
31 | Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | 19 | 9 | 32 | 32 | 213.1 | 6.79 | 1.69 | 0.8 | 0.271 | 74.40% | 47.60% | 9.50% | 3.25 | 89 | 92 | |
32 | Zack Greinke | Dodgers | 15 | 4 | 28 | 28 | 177.2 | 7.5 | 2.33 | 0.66 | 0.276 | 80.80% | 45.60% | 8.60% | 2.63 | 90 | 91 | |
33 | Ubaldo Jimenez | Indians | 13 | 9 | 32 | 32 | 182.2 | 9.56 | 3.94 | 0.79 | 0.304 | 76.50% | 43.90% | 9.00% | 3.3 | 90 | 91 | |
34 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | 14 | 8 | 30 | 30 | 192 | 7.22 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.296 | 78.20% | 50.60% | 8.70% | 3 | 90 | 92 | |
35 | Ricky Nolasco | - - - | 13 | 11 | 33 | 33 | 198.1 | 7.44 | 2.09 | 0.77 | 0.298 | 70.70% | 42.80% | 8.70% | 3.72 | 90 | 95 | |
36 | Mike Minor | Braves | 13 | 9 | 32 | 32 | 204.2 | 7.96 | 2.02 | 0.97 | 0.272 | 75.10% | 35.00% | 8.80% | 3.21 | 90 | 97 | |
37 | Lance Lynn | Cardinals | 15 | 10 | 33 | 33 | 201.2 | 8.84 | 3.39 | 0.62 | 0.314 | 71.80% | 43.10% | 7.40% | 3.97 | 90 | 97 | |
38 | Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 11 | 8 | 32 | 32 | 195.2 | 8.83 | 3.5 | 0.78 | 0.286 | 75.30% | 43.90% | 9.70% | 3.36 | 91 | 93 | |
39 | Andy Pettitte | Yankees | 11 | 11 | 30 | 30 | 185.1 | 6.22 | 2.33 | 0.83 | 0.308 | 72.90% | 46.00% | 9.10% | 3.74 | 91 | 98 | |
40 | Kris Medlen | Braves | 15 | 11 | 31 | 31 | 194 | 7.19 | 2.13 | 0.79 | 0.297 | 76.30% | 45.00% | 9.40% | 3.11 | 92 | 94 | |
41 | Andrew Cashner | Padres | 10 | 9 | 26 | 26 | 165.2 | 6.46 | 2.23 | 0.6 | 0.27 | 72.00% | 52.80% | 7.90% | 3.04 | 92 | 95 | |
42 | C.J. Wilson | Angels | 17 | 7 | 33 | 33 | 212.1 | 7.97 | 3.6 | 0.64 | 0.3 | 73.50% | 44.40% | 7.20% | 3.39 | 92 | 99 | |
43 | Jose Quintana | White Sox | 9 | 7 | 33 | 33 | 200 | 7.38 | 2.52 | 1.04 | 0.283 | 76.60% | 42.50% | 10.20% | 3.51 | 93 | 97 | |
44 | John Lackey | Red Sox | 10 | 13 | 29 | 29 | 189.1 | 7.65 | 1.9 | 1.24 | 0.281 | 76.90% | 46.80% | 13.30% | 3.52 | 94 | 88 | |
45 | Jeff Samardzija | Cubs | 8 | 13 | 33 | 33 | 213.2 | 9.01 | 3.29 | 1.05 | 0.314 | 71.70% | 48.20% | 13.30% | 4.34 | 97 | 92 | |
46 | Ervin Santana | Royals | 9 | 10 | 32 | 32 | 211 | 6.87 | 2.18 | 1.11 | 0.267 | 76.90% | 46.20% | 12.40% | 3.24 | 97 | 93 | |
47 | Edwin Jackson | Cubs | 8 | 18 | 31 | 31 | 175.1 | 6.93 | 3.03 | 0.82 | 0.322 | 63.30% | 51.30% | 9.90% | 4.98 | 97 | 102 | |
48 | Bud Norris | - - - | 10 | 10 | 30 | 30 | 174 | 7.4 | 3.26 | 0.88 | 0.331 | 73.20% | 39.90% | 8.20% | 4.14 | 97 | 106 | |
49 | Eric Stults | Padres | 11 | 13 | 33 | 33 | 203.2 | 5.79 | 1.77 | 0.8 | 0.302 | 69.60% | 40.40% | 6.90% | 3.93 | 98 | 110 | |
50 | Julio Teheran | Braves | 14 | 8 | 30 | 30 | 185.2 | 8.24 | 2.18 | 1.07 | 0.288 | 80.90% | 37.80% | 10.10% | 3.2 | 99 | 100 | |
51 | CC Sabathia | Yankees | 14 | 13 | 32 | 32 | 211 | 7.46 | 2.77 | 1.19 | 0.308 | 67.40% | 44.70% | 13.00% | 4.78 | 100 | 95 | |
52 | Travis Wood | Cubs | 9 | 12 | 32 | 32 | 200 | 6.48 | 2.97 | 0.81 | 0.248 | 77.40% | 33.20% | 6.90% | 3.11 | 100 | 120 |
Observations:
1. Max Scherzer went from barely making the list in 2011, to winning the Cy Young Award in 2013 and coming in at #4 on this list. He will go high in most drafts and I'm not saying sell high, but how much better can he get? I think the HR/FB ratio will regress back to the mean again, but thankfully his home park will help his fly ball tendencies. He's been extremely durable over his career, but realize if you are targeting him in trade right now or drafting him, you are paying TOP DOLLAR. Not a wise move, in general, for fantasy purposes.
2. Despite the less-than-sexy strikeout rates, Jordan Zimmermann continues to be a solid candidate for your rotation. However, his value may be inflated due to his 19-win season last year. However, he's still the same pitcher so don't overpay.
3. Another Tigers' pitcher, Anibal Sanchez saw his K-rate spike to 9.99/9 last year. Sure, he got lucky, LOB% increased 8%, HR/FB was cut in half to 5.8% so you can expect some regression. Add to this his injury history, and the fact that Max and Justin get most of the press in Detroit, and this guy still seems to fly under-the-radar. By the way, Max might have won the Cy Young, but Anibal led the team in ERA.
4. Look out below! That was C.C. Sabathia doing his best Wyle E. Coyote impersonation falling off a cliff last year. Expect a small bounce-back but the best is clearly behind him at this point.
5. Ricky Nolasco made the list three years in a row, and if he can maintain the K-rate from last year, or thereabouts (~7/9 IP), then he will also be a solid target come draft day.
6. I'm not advocating that Jhoulys Chacin deserves your attention. For many reasons he may just be a better in real-life than for fantasy purposes. I'm just saying that he's made the list 2 of the last three years, and he cracked the top 13 last year, ahead of Doug Fister, Justin Verlander, and Mat Latos. Deep leaguers could do worse than target this guy for the back end of your rotation.
Target:
Cole Hamels (SP-PHI).
Ok, naysayers, have a field day if you'd like. Last year was the first year in 6 years Hamels hasn't compiled double-digit wins although his FIP and xFIP supported a solid campaign. Yes, he's on the wrong side of 30, but at the same time he hasn't thrown less than 183 innings since 2007. There's no upside remaining here, but that's not why you draft him. You draft him because you know what you'll get: K-rate around 8+, BB/9 around 2, double-digit wins (hopefully), and good peripherals. His fastball velocity is still there, his underlying metrics all support his numbers-there's no noticeable decline coming as far as I can tell. He's a number 2 that won't fly off the draft board early because he only won 8 games last year and will return some great value.
Avoid
Mat Latos (SP-CIN)
This is not a reflection of Latos being a bad pitcher, he's actually quite good (and made the list all three years). He's durable, he's above average...and that's about it. He's still young-ish but just had bone chips removed from his elbow this offseason. When I start seeing pitchers show up on Jeff Zimmerman's MASH report, I begin to worry (along with a high slider usage-18th in the league overall in SL%). There are still people calling him an ace-in-waiting, but thus far in his career it seems as if he is what he is. The K-rate has more or less declined since 2010-13 (9.21 - 8.57 - 7.95 - 7.99), the BB-rate remains a shade south of 3 (2.72 BB/9 career), and the ERA is nice (mid 3s). With the bandbox in Cincinnati will never help him, he looks more like a #2-3 to me, but people continue drafting him for his potential. Let them. Unless he falls to you, why not look for a higher-upside play with his mound-mate, Homer Bailey.