2014 Minor League Keeper Thoughts: Los Angeles Dodgers

The prospect staff here at Fake Teams will be taking an in-depth look at each major league organization, including our top 10 fantasy prospects, an overview of the organization's minor league system as a whole and potential opportunities for playing time in 2014. Our goal is to provide you with more information as you prepare for minor league drafts for dynasty and keeper leagues, as well as look at players that could potentially be worth watching during the spring, as they could be in line to potentially help your fantasy team. We will be reviewing two teams per week until we are through all 30 teams, and you can see the schedule of when your favorite team will be reviewed below.

System Schedule

Organizational Overview
By Matt Mattingly(@mattmattingly81)

The Los Angeles Dodgers were a tale of two different teams during the 2013 season. On June 3^rd, the team was struggling with a record of 23-32. Manager Don Mattingly was on the hot seat as injuries started to mount and the team was not living up to expectations. Then, the Dodgers decided it was time to call-up Yasiel Puig. The Cuban sensation recorded three homeruns in his first four games, which helped to spark the ball club on a hot streak that would propel them to the top of the National League West and never look back.

After Puig's debut, the Dodgers went 69-38 and earned a spot in the National League Division Series versus the Atlanta Braves. The Dodgers won the series, but eventually lost in the NL Championship Series against the St. Louis Cardinals. By the end of the season, Mattingly went from the hot seat to receiving Manager of the Year considerations. Management recently extended Mattingly's contract to keep him with the organization thru the 2016 season. The Dodgers' front office is looking to reload and make another run deep into the playoffs in 2014. Management has shown the willingness to spend whatever it takes to give this team what it needs to compete for a World Championship. Expectations are sky high once again for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2014.

Magic Johnson teamed with Chicago's Guggenheim Partners to purchase the Dodgers franchise in March of 2012, and quickly made the McCourt tenure of controversy and financial restraint a distant memory in Los Angeles. The new management team came in and immediately opened their deep wallets to quickly turn this roster into a perennial playoff contender. Magic & Co. helped to solidify the pitching rotation by signing Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu before the 2013 season. Dan Haren was also signed this offseason to add rotation depth. One of management's first significant trades brought in Hanley Ramirez and Randy Choate for Nate Eovaldi and Scott McGough. This group also constructed the massive trade with the Red Sox during the 2012 season that brought in Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Nick Punto.

With the acquisitions of starting pitchers Zack Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Josh Beckett, and Dan Haren over the past two years added to Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley, the rotation is stocked. The bullpen is deep as well, with a young closer in Kenley Jansen to go with a stable of top set-up men. The offense added Cuban Alexander Guerrero to compete for the current opening at second base. After the re-signing of Juan Uribe, the rest of the starting infield will be returning in 2014. Even with the trade rumors swirling around Matt Kemp, Carl Crawford, and Andre Ethier, the team has all four of their starting outfielders still on the roster. The Dodgers look to be the team to beat again in the National League West headed into the 2014 season.

2013 Graduates

The following players have surpassed their rookie maximums of 130 AB, 50 IP, or 45 days of service time prior to September 1st of this year.

Tim Federowicz (at bats), Yasiel Puig (at bats), Scott Van Slyke (at bats), Hyun-Jin Ryu (innings), Paco Rodriguez (innings), Stephen Fife (innings), Chris Withrow (service time)

Major League Opportunities in 2014
By Matt Mattingly(@mattmattingly81)

Although the Dodgers have a few prospects knocking on the door, it might take an injury to create an opening for any prospects to make an impact in 2014. The main opening on the roster is at second base, where Cuban mystery man Alexander Guerrero seems to be the frontrunner for the job. General Manager Ned Colletti recently announced there will be a competition between Guerrero, Dee Gordon and Miguel Rojas in spring training for the position. The rest of the infield is back in place, with A.J. Ellis, Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez and Juan Uribe set to return.

As mentioned above, the four starting outfielders from last year are all still currently on the roster. Management considered bringing up Joc Pederson last year instead of Yasiel Piug. It appears they made the right decision in promoting Puig, and now it seems that a trade or injury will need to take place before a starting spot is opened for Pederson. But the young prospect could provide a nice mix of power and speed immediately upon arrival.

With Clayton Kershaw, Zack Grienke, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Josh Beckett, Chad Billingsley, and Dan Haren making up the 6-man starting rotation, the pitching staff is set for now. It could take multiple injuries before an opening presents itself here. The bullpen is deep as well, with former All-Star closers Brian Wilson, Chris Perez, and Brandon League under contract to set-up current closer Kenley Jansen. Paco Rodriguez and J.P. Howell also give the club two quality left-handed options. The Dodgers have a few prospects that are close to being ready to contribute in the bullpen, but will have to earn one of the last remaining spots, or wait for an opening to present itself.

Top 10 Fantasy Prospects
By Jason Hunt(@jasonsbaseball)

Our top 10 fantasy prospect rankings are based upon standard 5x5 fantasy baseball leagues, with a balancing of ceiling and present value. While we are having discussions regarding these lists as a collective group, the top 10 fantasy prospect rankings are finalized by the writer listed above. Players are no longer considered prospects once they exceed either 130 at bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 days of service time in the Majors prior to September 1st.

Taken in the 11th round of the 2010 draft, Pederson has slowly been making his way toward the Majors. He was viewed by Baseball America as potentially a better prospect than that, and the Dodgers appear to have thought so as well by giving him a bonus of $600K despite his late draft round.

Pederson appeared very late that season, and essentially debuted in 2011 between the Pioneer League and full season Midwest League. The strength of a .323/.407/.503 slash line between the two stops led BA to rank him as the #9 prospect in the system, and was expected to return to Low-A after playing just 16 games there that year. However, the Dodgers moved him even quicker, and Pederson responded just as strongly.

He went to Rancho Cucamonga in the California League for the 2012 season, and established himself as a potential top 100 prospect with a .313/.396/.513 line with 18 home runs and 26 stolen bases. Moved up to AA for 2013, Pederson played alongside phenom Yasiel Puig for the first part of the season, but more than held his own at AA as well.

Pederson is considered a solid all-around outfielder, capable of providing fantasy owners with a solid batting average to go along with solid power and a decent amount of stolen bases. There are questions about his L/R splits which could manifest as an issue as he moves up, as well as his efficiency on the basepaths. Long-term, he is expected to be able to stay in center field defensively, although at the moment it's hard to tell exactly where Pederson could play for the Dodgers in the outfield any time soon.

Pederson will likely head to AAA to start the 2014 season, and could be called up should the Dodgers need an outfielder for an extended period of time. It's possible he ends up as a trade chip, and could headline a package to acquire a major piece.

The brother of Mariners' 3B Kyle Seager, Corey may actually be the better player down the line. The Dodgers drafted Seager with the 18th overall pick in the 2012 draft, and were able to sign him for a bonus of $2.35 million soon enough for him to appear in 46 games with their rookie league team in Ogden, hitting .309/.383/.520 with eight home runs and eight stolen bases.The organization sent him to full season Low-A to start the 2013 campaign, and despite missing nearly a month due to a hamstring injury, was promoted to High-A before the end of the season. He played in the Arizona Fall League, but did not perform well, which has been attributed in part to the wear of a very long season.

The biggest question mark seems to surround whether Seager can stay at shortstop long-term, or if a move to third base will be necessary. In an interview with Chad Moriyama back in July, Dodgers' VP of Amateur Scouting Logan White noted that the organization believes he can stay there a while. Seager projects to be an above-average hitter, providing a solid batting average or better to go along with above-average power. He has shown the ability to take a walk so far, and the scouting reports match up with the idea that he will have additional value in OBP leagues as well.

Seager will likely return to High-A Rancho Cucamonga to start the 2014 season, and it would not surprise me if the organization tried to move Seager toward the majors on a timetable to match up with the end of Juan Uribe's contract after the 2015 season. He is still a long way from the majors, but Seager is an easy top 50 fantasy prospect who could provide 20+ home runs in the future from either shortstop or third base.

Urias may be one of the more unique prospects in the minors right now, and could be one of youngest to reach the majors if it all clicks. The Dodgers signed Urias out of the Mexican League in 2012, and despite not having pitched stateside prior, sent him to full season Low-A Great Lakes for the 2013 season, as a 16 year old. On a strict innings limit, Urias was nothing short of spectacular, striking out 67 and walking 16 in 54 innings pitched across 18 starts.

Urias relies upon his advanced repertoire, which includes a mid-90s fastball, a potentially plus curveball, and potentially plus changeup. In addition, reports on Urias point to a pitcher who has a feel for pitching which is extremely advanced for his age, as well as excellent command of all three pitches. This combination of present stuff and control would be exciting from a 20-year old pitching prospect out of the Midwest League, but the fact that Urias will be 17 for most of next season just ramps up the helium. Jason Parks noted on the Fringe Average podcast that he had heard reports from scouts that they believed Urias could get batters out in AA right now, despite the large age difference. Urias is not considered projectable in terms of his frame, sitting 5'11" and 185 lbs, which keeps him from that truly elite grouping of pitching prospects. He also had a tumor removed from his eye previously, but that issue is not considered to be a hindrance to his sight.

Long term, Urias most likely projects to be a mid-rotation starting pitcher for the Dodgers, and could potentially debut well before his 20th birthday. He will remain on an innings limit for the 2014 season as well, but could potentially see AA before the end of the year. He is still a long way from the Majors, but there's a lot to be excited about here.

Taken with the 28th pick in the 2010 draft, Lee was viewed at the time as practically unsignable due to his commitment to be the quarterback at LSU. It was a huge surprise when the Dodgers were able to get an agreement, giving Lee over $5 million reasons to skip campus. He did not pitch that year, and was sent to full season Low-A for the 2011 season, where he posted solid numbers. A promotion at the start of the 2012 season led Lee to High-A, where he made 12 starts before moving again to AA. He returned to Chattanooga for the 2013 season, where he had easily his best season as a professional.

Lee features a four pitch repertoire consisting of a low-90s fastball, both a slider and a curveball, as well as a changeup. None of the pitches project as above-average offerings, but all four could be average, and when combined with solid command, gives Lee a profile of a back-end starter with the possibility of some seasons of mid-rotation performance.

Lee will likely head to AAA Albuquerque to start the season, and could be in line for a call up should the team need a starting pitcher at some point during the season. It's unclear that the team would need a starter unless there is an injury, and it is possible that Lee ends up as a trade chip for the team instead.

The Dodgers drafted Anderson out of Jacksonville University with their top pick in the 2013 draft, and were able to get him signed to a bonus of just over $1 million. He was sent directly to full season Low-A, where he was able to make 12 starts before the end of the season.

Anderson features a mid-90s fastball, an above-average slider, along with a changeup and curveball. All of his offspeed pitches are considered to be in progress, but have the potential to be at least average offerings down the line. He has a good build for an innings-eating starting pitcher, standing 6'4", 215 lbs already. He struggled with his command this year, but it seems that is out of line with his performance in college and is expected to improve as well.

Anderson is expected to move up to High-A to start the 2014 season, and it is possible he could be moved to AA quickly if he pitches well there. He could potentially slot in toward the back-end of a fantasy rotation, providing solid but not spectacular numbers, with an estimated ETA of late 2015/early 2016.

While the Dodgers had been rumored to be a suitor for top free agent Robinson Cano, they instead opted to sign international free agent Alexander Guerrero, who had defected from Cuba previously to a 4 year, $28 million major league contract.

The reports on Guerrero that are available point to a player who could be an above-average hitter at an up-the-middle position. He has shown above-average power in Cuba, but it is unclear if that will translate into a 20 home run bat, or a 10 home run bat in the major leagues. He has played some shortstop in the past, but is not considered strong enough defensively to play the position on a consistent basis, and will move to second base instead. There are questions surrounding how potent his bat will be as he is exposed to major league pitching, which leaves a wide range of outcomes despite him being expected to be in the lineup on Opening Day.

Guerrero was signed to be the starting second baseman in the majors as soon as this year, although there have been issues acquiring a work visa for Guerrero, which could delay his arrival at Spring Training. I have Guerrero ranked as my #26 second baseman for 2014 as of right now, due in large part to the number of unknowns with regard to his potential and expected playing time. We should have a better idea of what he could be once he arrives in Spring Training and we start to see him in games.

The Dodgers followed up their selection of Anderson with a college left hander from the University of Minnesota, Tom Windle. Windle came into the draft viewed as a potential first round pick on the strength of a strong season in the Cape Cod League in 2012, but ended up falling into the 2nd round where the Dodgers gave him a bonus of just under $1 million dollars. The Dodgers sent him to their Low-A affiliate, where he pitched well across 53 innings of work.

The reports on Windle point to a potential mid-rotation starting pitcher if everything comes together. He features a fastball which sits in the low-90s, along with an excellent slider, giving him two potentially above-average pitches. He was converted to starting in his last season at Minnesota, so his changeup remains a bit rough so far. The development of that pitch will likely be the determining factor for what he can be for the Dodgers, as he'll likely end up in the bullpen if it doesn't end up as at least an average offering.

Windle could return to Low-A to start the season in order to work on his changeup, although it wouldn't surprise me if he went to High-A with his draft mate. Even if he ends up in the bullpen, he could be a high strikeout reliever and potentially have value if given an opportunity for saves, but for now will continue to work as a starting pitcher.

Drafted out of Texas A&M by the Rockies in the 9th round of the 2011 draft, Stripling did not sign, and ended up taken in the 5th round as a senior by the Dodgers the following year. The organization sent him to Ogden after signing, where he posted a 37/6 K:BB ratio in 36 innings pitched that year. He was sent directly to High-A to start the 2013 season, but made just six starts there before being promoted to AA Chattanooga.

Stripling relies upon a low-90s fastball, which he pairs with a 12-to-6 curveball, changeup and slider. None of his offerings project as above-average offerings down the line, but all of his offerings have the potential to be at least average pitches in the majors. He profiles more as a back-end of the rotation type of pitcher, but should be able to stick in the rotation given his profile and repertoire.

Stripling is likely ticketed for the AAA rotation with Lee and Magill, and could also get a shot at starting should the big club need one during the season. He profiles more as streaming option for fantasy owners, and is worth a look in very deep NL-only leagues as a spot start option. He will likely be ready by the end of 2014, regardless of whether there is an opening in the rotation for him or not.

A 31st round pick back in 2008, Magill has been slowly working his way up the organization. He has progressed at a level per year since 2010, reaching AA in 2012, and was added to the 40-man roster following a season in which he posted career highs in strikeouts-per-nine (10.3) and innings pitched (146). He moved to AAA for the start of the 2013, and was called up after injuries ravaged the Dodgers' rotation in late April. He returned to AAA to stay after his start on June 9th, but missed a few weeks in July due to tightness in his forearm. He was able to return, and finished up with 11 starts before the end of the AAA season.

Magill doesn't have an above-average pitch, but instead has three different offerings which are projected to be at least average (fastball, slider, changeup), with the slider working well to notch strikeouts. He still needs to work on his command, as his walk rate ballooned to over five per nine innings in the minors (and was even worse in the majors), but could potentially have some of that risk offset with higher strikeout totals.

Magill seems destined at this point to return to AAA for the start of the season, but he could potentially get a call up should the team need a spot starter since he is already on the 40-man roster. He has the potential to be a back-end starting pitcher, which makes him most interesting in deeper formats and NL-only leagues, specifically as a hedge on the other Dodgers' starters.

The Dodgers drafted Schebler out of an Iowa junior college in the 26th round of the 2010 draft, and were able to entice him to sign with a bonus of $300K. He was moved along slowly, spending his first two pro seasons in short-season leagues before a full-season debut in 2012 in Low-A Great Lakes. His performance there was solid, with six home runs and 17 stolen bases to go with a .260 batting average. Sent to the California League for 2013, Schebler finished in the top 10 in home runs (27), runs batted in (91), and OPS (.941).

Schebler projects as a potentially solid hitter, providing a decent amount of power and speed to go with a solid batting average, if everything works out. He will likely end up in a corner outfield spot defensively, with left field the most likely spot based on his arm. As a result, the pressure on his bat to provide the additional value in left field will be high. Ben Badler also noted this in his top 10 chat:

The scouts I talked to had concerns that there's some Cal League smoke and mirrors going on with his performance, and that his trouble handling inside pitches is going to become magnified as he moves up.

At this point, it's hard to tell if Schebler is just another in a long line of prospects that look amazing in the southern half of the Cal League, only to be eaten up by better prospects at AA and higher. He remains a bit of a lottery ticket, and worth watching at this point for deep NL-only leagues.

Other Interesting Prospects
By Jason Hunt (@jasonsbaseball)

Alex Santana - Drafted as a shortstop back in 2011, Santana was moved to third base as a professional, and has been a bit slow to develop as a hitter. He has shown above-average raw power, but has not been able to translate that in-game as of yet. It's a possibility that he turns into an above-average contributor at third base, but as of right now that is a long way from a guarantee.

Noel Cuevas - An intriguing power prospect out of Puerto Rico, Cuevas hit well at the California League with 12 home runs and 38 stolen bases to go with a .284 average. Whether he is a Cal League illusion or not will be determined next year at AA, and there is pressure on his bat since he profiles as a left field prospect most likely.

Onelki Garcia - Garcia debuted in the majors this season, and his likely role long-term remains in relief. He's an interesting prospect for NL-only leagues, as he could provide strikeouts on the back-end of a fantasy pitching staff with a (very) outside shot at stealing a few saves in the future.

About the Authors

Jason Hunt is a contributing writer for Fake Teams, specializing in the minor leagues and prospects.
Follow him on Twitter @jasonsbaseball

Brian Creagh is a contributing writer for Fake Teams, specializing in fantasy baseball and the minor leagues.
Follow him on Twitter @BrianCreagh

Matt Mattingly is a contributing writer for Fake Teams, specializing in fantasy baseball and the minor leagues.
Follow him on Twitter @MattMattingly81

Sources

Baseball America
Baseball Prospectus
Baseball Reference
Fangraphs
True Blue LA
Vimeo
Youtube

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