Early ADP Trends: Starting Pitchers

Starting pitchers are becoming more and more dominant over the past few seasons, with run scoring and home runs down, and strikeouts in an up trend. Is it time to start drafting starting pitchers earlier in drafts? Like first round early? I think it might be time to do so.

Mock fantasy drafts are starting as well as some real fantasy drafts, so it's time to analyze what the early draft data is telling us, if anything. The ADP data tells us what the early draft tendencies are of fantasy owners, some experts, in the early drafts that have already completed. The ADP data changes as more drafts occur, and could change drastically once spring training begins and we start hearing about injuries and who wins positions that are up for grabs this season.

The NFBC drafts have already begun and today I bring you what the early ADPs look like for starting pitching. But before I do so, here is sone data from Baseball HQ, on the the ERA, WHIP and K/9 trend for the top 30 starting pitchers over the last ten years:

It is becoming pretty obvious that the top starting pitchers in baseball are providing much more value to fantasy owners over the last 3-4 years, and fantasy owners are starting to take notice. Here is the early NFBC ADP data for the top 40 starting pitchers is as follows, courtesy of NESN.com:

The NFBC leagues are 15 team mixed leagues, and the early NFBC ADP data shows that there are 10 starting pitchers being drafted in the first three rounds, give or take a pick. Compare this to the 15 team Tout Wars draft I participated in last season, and the 10th starter was taken with the fifth pick in the 4th round, or pick 50.

In addition, the first starting pitcher wasn't taken until pick 20 in the Tout Wars draft last season, while the NFBC data shows that Clayton Kershaw is being selected very early in drafts thus far, with an ADP of 5.47. Rangers ace Yu Darvish has an ADP of 16.26, so he is being drafted right outside the first round, on average.

Marlins ace Jose Fernandez is getting quite a bit of love this offseason, as he is now the fourth starting pitcher off NFBC draft boards currently, ahead of aces Felix Hernandez, Stephen Strasburg, Cliff Lee, Adam Wainwright and others. Fernandez was very dominating in his first full season in the big leagues, but I find it hard to draft him ahead of these aces at this point.

A few other young starters, Michael Wacha, Gerrit Cole, Danny Salazar and Tony CIngrani are also getting plenty of love by NFBC drafters right now, as they are being drafted at #17, #19, #32 and #33 respectively. Wacha is being drafted in the first half of the fifth round, while Cole is going early in the sixth round. Cingrani and Salazar are coming off the board in the latter half of the ninth round.

In summary, the young starters, and possible future aces, are coming off the board very early in the early NFBC drafts that have completed to date. Which starting pitcher stands out for you?

Is Jose Fernandez getting too much love this offseason, or is it deserving? Let's hear your thoughts and opinions in the poll and comments section below.

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