Bump Him Up Your '14 Lists: Freddie Freeman

When I think about potential names for my first-born, naturally, the first thing I do is look to those impactful on my fantasy team: Miguel Schwartz…doesn't really roll off the tongue nicely; Matthew (Harvey)…maybe; Freddie?! My wife said yes if it wasn’t for Freddie Kreueger.

If you read my Ballsy Forecast and my recent Review, you know I have a man crush on him. And here’s why…

Eno Sarris on FanGraphs points out (ironically on Freddie Freeman), we should see max ISO for at least another year (age 24 to 25), and while previous data dictates that, we see more and more elite hitters continuing to mash into their late 20’s. He’s only 23! Freddie Freeman will continue to lift the ball, hit more HR/FB and should improve his contact rate – in fact, look at his 2013 relative to ’11 & ’12:

Season	Team	Age	FB%	HR/FB	Contact%	BB%	K%	BABIP	LD%	GB%	FB%	IFFB%	xBABIP
2010	Braves	20	37.50%	16.70%	75.60%	0.00%	33.30%	0.2	18.80%	43.80%	37.50%	0.00%
2011	Braves	21	34.60%	14.00%	77.40%	8.30%	22.40%	0.339	23.00%	42.40%	34.60%	4.70%
2012	Braves	22	36.90%	14.80%	77.60%	10.30%	20.80%	0.295	26.00%	37.10%	36.90%	7.70%
2013	Braves	23	34.40%	13.00%	77.00%	10.70%	19.70%	0.37	27.40%	38.20%	34.40%	2.80%	0.361

stats & customizable player profiles courtesy of FanGraphs

Batting Average:

While he does have somewhat of an inflated BABIP (.370, which is driven by MLB’s 5^th best line drive rate, 27.40%), his expected BABIP this year is .361. A career low fly ball rate (34.4%) and miniscule 2.8% infield fly ball rate helped the cause. The LD% and BABIP should regress next year, but increased discipline and an age-related contact increase should keep the average between .290 and .305.

Homerun Potential:

In the past, this was the concern with Freddie Freeman, and I think the homerun potential will always be limited to a HR total sub-30 without luck factoring in. This year he’s on pace for about 20, but missed a few weeks in April, which has affected the counting stats although he is still 10^th in the majors in RBI’s. Let’s take a look at his average distance according to Jeff Zimmerman’s Baseball Heatmap’s Average Distance Leader board:

	Rank	Stance	Year	Hits	Distance	Angle	FB%	HR/FB
2011	42	L	2011	135	292.56	-6.09	34.60%	14.00%
2012	76	L	2012	134	288.96	-3.43	36.90%	14.80%
2013	65	L	2013	83	290.6	-1.18	34.40%	13.00%
Total:							35.40%	14.10%

A slight increase in distance from last year but a small HR/FB drop. I predict his distance to rise again next year – with the ability to lift the ball more and some luck (and skill/authority driving the ball farther), we should see the HR/FB ratio jump as well. With some additional contact, we should see something along these lines:

580 At-bats * 77.75% contact rate * 36.25% fly ball rate * 16% HR/FB = 26 HR. But combine that with 95 R, 115+ RBI and a .290+ Avg. and we’re talking a top 3-5 1B and top 20 fantasy talent. Again, he missed a few weeks early on this year, but according to ESPN’s Player Rater, he’s 47^th overall, the 30^th best hitter and 7^th best 1b. I don’t expect Chris Davis to repeat or Michael Cuddyer to stay healthy enough to keep Freeman out of the top 5.

Some have pointed to his minor league numbers and ISO-deflated stats, but he was never older than 20 in the minors! I (erroneously and admittedly) drafted him over Paul Goldschmidt this year, but I do think as of next year he has a chance to hold off Fielder, Encarnacion and Votto for the #2 overall 1B in standard 5x5 leagues.

*You can see where all us Fake Teams contributors ranked Freddie Freeman in our mid-season rankings.

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Dan Schwartz owns and contributes for Rotobanter.com – a site dedicated to fantasy baseball requests and live discussion. You can follow him on twitter @Rotobanter.