:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/16797655/20130707_pjc_se9_260.0.jpg)
Tis been a while since I posted here. You can still send us requests here. Real life, vacation and adult baseball is to blame. In 4 games played, I’m currently 2 for 8 with 2 SO, 2 HBP, 3BB, 1 RBI and am currently unlucky in the BABIP department – freken 4 line drives caught for outs already (1 GB and 1 FB out as well). Watching baseball is great. Fantasy baseball is awesome, but playing baseball – there’s nothing better than knowing you can still catch up to a 80…okay 65-75 MPH fastball.
Anyways, time to get back into full swing here. So let’s take a look at a few SP options potentially still available. Recently, I had no choice but to pick up Chad Gaudin and Hector Santiago. Surprisingly both have been assets for me thus far. In his past 3 starts, Gaudin has gone 19 innings with a 22:5 (4.4) K/BB ratio – only 10 hits and 2 earned runs (0 HR). In Santiago’s last 3 starts, he’s gone 19.2 innings with a 21:5 K/BB ratio – only 13 hits and 5 earned runs (3 HR).
Let’s take a look at their Skill and Luck factors (relative to all pitchers with > 70 IP). As of 7/22, Gaudin was 38th in expected ERA/SIERA and contact rate, but has been very lucky in all three departments: HR/FB, left on base% and BABIP. Out of 129 pitchers, Gaudin has the 22nd highest BABIP differential between expected BABIP and actual BABIP as you can see below:
|
|
Name |
GB% |
FB% |
LD% |
IFFB% |
IFH% |
HR/FB |
LOB% |
BABIP |
xBABIP |
BABIPDiff |
|
1 |
Jeff Locke |
52.40% |
29.30% |
18.30% |
8.60% |
6.60% |
6.50% |
83.20% |
0.223 |
0.320 |
0.097 |
|
2 |
Jose Fernandez |
42.90% |
34.30% |
22.80% |
5.40% |
4.30% |
7.60% |
75.60% |
0.244 |
0.333 |
0.089 |
|
3 |
Clayton Kershaw |
44.80% |
35.10% |
20.10% |
10.30% |
6.90% |
6.60% |
79.30% |
0.23 |
0.317 |
0.087 |
|
4 |
Patrick Corbin |
46.80% |
32.40% |
20.80% |
9.60% |
5.40% |
7.80% |
81.90% |
0.246 |
0.321 |
0.075 |
|
5 |
Travis Wood |
33.70% |
44.00% |
22.30% |
13.00% |
5.10% |
5.80% |
76.50% |
0.227 |
0.301 |
0.074 |
|
6 |
Hiroki Kuroda |
46.00% |
33.00% |
21.00% |
9.40% |
6.20% |
9.40% |
81.90% |
0.251 |
0.325 |
0.074 |
|
7 |
Francisco Liriano |
52.10% |
24.70% |
23.30% |
1.90% |
9.80% |
7.50% |
82.60% |
0.295 |
0.367 |
0.072 |
|
8 |
Jordan Zimmermann |
48.20% |
29.10% |
22.70% |
13.40% |
6.60% |
10.10% |
74.10% |
0.26 |
0.330 |
0.070 |
|
9 |
Madison Bumgarner |
43.70% |
37.50% |
18.90% |
11.00% |
4.10% |
9.40% |
74.70% |
0.231 |
0.301 |
0.070 |
|
10 |
Jason Marquis |
52.30% |
27.10% |
20.50% |
6.10% |
3.10% |
18.20% |
77.30% |
0.261 |
0.330 |
0.069 |
|
11 |
Bronson Arroyo |
43.30% |
36.50% |
20.30% |
6.80% |
5.20% |
11.60% |
78.90% |
0.254 |
0.323 |
0.069 |
|
12 |
Matt Cain |
39.10% |
38.80% |
22.10% |
7.80% |
5.40% |
12.50% |
64.10% |
0.258 |
0.327 |
0.069 |
|
13 |
Yu Darvish |
43.90% |
35.60% |
20.50% |
8.10% |
6.60% |
15.20% |
80.70% |
0.26 |
0.328 |
0.068 |
|
14 |
Cliff Lee |
43.70% |
33.90% |
22.40% |
8.00% |
7.90% |
11.60% |
76.40% |
0.272 |
0.339 |
0.067 |
|
15 |
Chris Sale |
45.80% |
32.30% |
21.90% |
7.00% |
7.70% |
11.00% |
76.60% |
0.275 |
0.340 |
0.065 |
|
16 |
Gio Gonzalez |
46.90% |
34.50% |
18.60% |
7.20% |
6.00% |
9.90% |
79.30% |
0.255 |
0.318 |
0.063 |
|
17 |
Alex Cobb |
57.10% |
21.40% |
21.40% |
7.80% |
5.10% |
17.60% |
81.00% |
0.279 |
0.342 |
0.063 |
|
18 |
Jorge de la Rosa |
48.10% |
27.40% |
24.50% |
9.60% |
8.50% |
7.40% |
77.80% |
0.29 |
0.351 |
0.061 |
|
19 |
Tim Lincecum |
46.20% |
27.20% |
26.60% |
2.40% |
7.60% |
11.80% |
67.40% |
0.312 |
0.372 |
0.060 |
|
20 |
Ervin Santana |
47.90% |
33.60% |
18.50% |
7.80% |
6.00% |
12.40% |
77.10% |
0.259 |
0.319 |
0.060 |
|
21 |
Jeremy Guthrie |
43.10% |
36.50% |
20.50% |
5.80% |
6.00% |
14.20% |
77.20% |
0.273 |
0.330 |
0.057 |
|
22 |
Chad Gaudin |
39.20% |
39.20% |
21.60% |
11.80% |
5.30% |
5.30% |
84.00% |
0.253 |
0.308 |
0.055 |
|
23 |
Matt Garza |
39.80% |
38.80% |
21.40% |
7.70% |
5.00% |
10.30% |
80.00% |
0.266 |
0.321 |
0.055 |
|
24 |
A.J. Burnett |
55.00% |
26.20% |
18.80% |
2.80% |
8.10% |
11.30% |
75.70% |
0.288 |
0.343 |
0.055 |
|
25 |
Kyle Lohse |
38.10% |
38.90% |
23.00% |
9.40% |
4.10% |
12.80% |
80.10% |
0.269 |
0.323 |
0.054 |
|
26 |
Scott Feldman |
50.00% |
31.70% |
18.30% |
12.50% |
9.80% |
10.60% |
66.60% |
0.268 |
0.322 |
0.054 |
|
27 |
Stephen Strasburg |
50.80% |
32.00% |
17.20% |
6.20% |
9.10% |
10.30% |
73.60% |
0.274 |
0.328 |
0.054 |
|
28 |
Clay Buchholz |
48.80% |
30.10% |
21.10% |
11.10% |
2.90% |
3.20% |
84.10% |
0.258 |
0.311 |
0.053 |
|
29 |
Jarrod Parker |
42.30% |
41.70% |
16.00% |
7.00% |
5.50% |
11.20% |
74.40% |
0.248 |
0.300 |
0.052 |
|
30 |
Mike Leake |
50.10% |
31.70% |
18.10% |
9.20% |
4.30% |
11.80% |
81.20% |
0.259 |
0.311 |
0.052 |
|
31 |
Hisashi Iwakuma |
47.20% |
37.60% |
15.20% |
9.60% |
3.80% |
14.40% |
81.10% |
0.241 |
0.292 |
0.051 |
|
32 |
Esmil Rogers |
46.10% |
29.40% |
24.50% |
5.60% |
3.50% |
13.90% |
78.30% |
0.294 |
0.345 |
0.051 |
|
33 |
Dan Straily |
35.80% |
42.10% |
22.00% |
9.30% |
2.20% |
7.50% |
67.50% |
0.258 |
0.307 |
0.049 |
|
34 |
Jhoulys Chacin |
47.10% |
28.60% |
24.40% |
8.80% |
4.80% |
2.90% |
69.90% |
0.289 |
0.337 |
0.048 |
|
35 |
Paul Maholm |
50.90% |
23.90% |
25.20% |
5.50% |
4.60% |
14.30% |
70.40% |
0.308 |
0.355 |
0.047 |
|
36 |
Bartolo Colon |
44.40% |
36.80% |
18.80% |
6.80% |
10.30% |
5.60% |
81.00% |
0.28 |
0.327 |
0.047 |
|
37 |
Roberto Hernandez |
50.30% |
25.00% |
24.70% |
10.60% |
5.30% |
21.20% |
69.70% |
0.304 |
0.350 |
0.046 |
|
38 |
Tim Hudson |
54.80% |
27.00% |
18.30% |
3.90% |
5.30% |
9.80% |
67.90% |
0.283 |
0.328 |
0.045 |
|
39 |
Wily Peralta |
54.00% |
24.80% |
21.20% |
8.20% |
5.70% |
11.30% |
65.20% |
0.293 |
0.336 |
0.043 |
|
40 |
Trevor Cahill |
57.70% |
23.00% |
19.20% |
4.50% |
5.40% |
14.90% |
70.30% |
0.293 |
0.336 |
0.043 |
|
41 |
Carlos Villanueva |
42.40% |
35.20% |
22.40% |
5.70% |
3.80% |
10.20% |
72.60% |
0.287 |
0.330 |
0.043 |
|
42 |
Matt Harvey |
45.60% |
35.00% |
19.30% |
12.90% |
6.00% |
6.00% |
78.80% |
0.262 |
0.305 |
0.043 |
|
43 |
C.J. Wilson |
46.10% |
33.20% |
20.80% |
5.70% |
7.00% |
7.30% |
72.90% |
0.291 |
0.333 |
0.042 |
|
44 |
Kyle Kendrick |
50.70% |
31.10% |
18.20% |
9.10% |
9.80% |
9.80% |
73.80% |
0.287 |
0.329 |
0.042 |
|
45 |
CC Sabathia |
45.20% |
34.40% |
20.40% |
7.30% |
9.60% |
15.30% |
70.50% |
0.298 |
0.339 |
0.041 |
|
46 |
Miguel Gonzalez |
39.40% |
40.00% |
20.60% |
13.30% |
3.20% |
10.90% |
79.70% |
0.257 |
0.298 |
0.041 |
|
47 |
Jeremy Hefner |
44.60% |
36.90% |
18.50% |
8.90% |
6.70% |
12.90% |
70.10% |
0.275 |
0.315 |
0.040 |
|
48 |
Jerome Williams |
45.60% |
33.80% |
20.60% |
8.30% |
6.20% |
13.00% |
67.30% |
0.288 |
0.327 |
0.039 |
|
49 |
Kevin Correia |
45.70% |
32.50% |
21.80% |
4.70% |
4.40% |
14.10% |
78.80% |
0.298 |
0.336 |
0.038 |
|
50 |
Yovani Gallardo |
49.90% |
26.70% |
23.50% |
5.10% |
4.90% |
12.10% |
67.20% |
0.309 |
0.347 |
0.038 |
|
51 |
Jake Westbrook |
59.30% |
21.10% |
19.60% |
5.30% |
1.90% |
5.30% |
76.50% |
0.284 |
0.321 |
0.037 |
|
52 |
Hector Santiago |
35.00% |
42.50% |
22.60% |
13.50% |
6.30% |
10.40% |
77.90% |
0.273 |
0.309 |
0.036 |
More concerning is that he’s been the 4th luckiest pitcher as it relates to homeruns per flyball and left on base% as you can see here:
|
Name |
SIERA |
Ct% |
SwStr |
K% |
K/BB |
GB/FB |
HR/FB |
LOB |
BABIP |
|
Chad Gaudin |
38 |
38 |
46 |
34 |
57 |
107 |
4 |
4 |
22 |
|
Hector Santiago |
48 |
22 |
33 |
17 |
85 |
118 |
39 |
39 |
52 |
Recommendations:
Santiago has benefited much less in these 3 luck-relates categories, and has been even more impressive from a dominance perspective as we can see from his contact rate, swing and miss rate and K% above. He has the 22nd best contact rate in baseball right now. I benefit from being in a league that doesn’t use counting stats such as wins and saves – if you need K or K/9 or K% then Santiago is a must-start, but keep an eye on his BB% and GB/FB rate. Look to his 3.80 SIERA and not 3.30 ERA, but a sub 77.5% contact rate sure is great.
Gaudin is currently sporting a full sub .300 wOBA repertoire – he should have his spot in the rotation locked for the rest of the season, but in all likelihood they’ll catch-up to his fastball and he’ll regress, but he’s a must-start at home and against paltry offenses.
Make sure you look at our rest of season rankings here.
...And finally exciting Miami Marlins news here, where Jason Hunt delves into Yelich & Marisnick.
Dan owns and contributes for Rotobanter.com - dedicated to visitor requests and live banter. You can follow him on twitter @rotobanter