A monthly subscriber to Cosmopolitan magazine, my "girlfriend" loves to find out who I really am by running me through the rigors of their deep personality quizzes. After answering yes or no to several open-ended questions I'm usually given some middle-of-the-road diagnosis to the question at hand (although I must admit I passed the "Do you have sexy confidence" quiz with flying colors). Jealous? Well ladies, today is your lucky day. Let's find out.....What Kind of Trading Partner Are You?
I will ask a series of questions, jot down your answer to each and at the end I'll give you a scoring scale for each question. Sum up your points and find out what type of trading partner you are! Please keep in mind that this applies only for those in keeper/dynasty leagues. You re-draft leaguers are too promiscuous - and there's no point in selling in a re-draft league.
For those who play H2H
1. How many games out of a playoff spot are you? Take this value and divide it by the number of weeks remaining in the regular season.
2. How many players do you currently own from this list?
3. How many times do you face a team currently in the bottom 1/4^{th} of the league? Take this value and divide it by the number of weeks remaining.
4. How many players do you currently have on the Disabled List?
5. What percentage of players on your starting roster are 30 years old or older?
For those who play Roto
1. Are you ahead of pace on Innings Pitched?
2. How many players do you currently own from this list?
3. In how many categories are you in the bottom half of the league?
4. How many players do you currently have on the Disabled List?
5. How many players on your starting roster are 30 years old or older?
Scoring
We'll start with H2H Questions. This section will display only the points, for a detailed analysis of why the question was asked, keep reading.
H2H Quiz
Question 1 - If the value of your answer is less than 2, give yourself 1 point. If it is greater than 2, you get 0 points
Question 2 - If your answer is 3 or greater, you get 1 point. If it is 2 or less, you get 0 points
Question 3 - If your answer is greater than 25%, you get 1 point, otherwise you get 0 points
Question 4 - If your answer is greater than 2, you get 1 point, otherwise you get 0 points
Question 5 - If your answer is greater than 33%, you get 1 point, otherwise you get 0 points
Roto Quiz
Question 1 - If you answered "No", you get 1 point, otherwise you get 0 points
Question 2 - If your answer is 3 or greater, you get 1 point. If it is 2 or less, you get 0 points
Question 3 - If your answer is greater than 1 but less than 4, you get 1 point otherwise you get 0 points
Question 4 - If your answer is greater than 2, you get 1 point, otherwise you get 0 points
Question 5 - If your answer is greater than 33%, you get 1 point, otherwise you get 0 points
Results
Use the following table to determine what type of Trade Partner you are:
Points |
Type of Trade Partner |
3+ |
Buyer! |
0-2 |
Seller! |
Analysis
Ok so maybe this ended up a little bit like a Cosmo personality quiz, but that was my intention. The purpose of this article wasn't necessarily to provide an across-the-board framework for determining if you should sell or buy this trade deadline, rather to get you thinking about factors you may not have otherwise considered. Let's take a look, question by question, to understand why each was asked.
H2H Question 1 - You need to understand how far away you are from a playoff spot...this is obvious. What isn't obvious is setting a realistic expectation for how much ground you can make up. A meaningful trade typically only offers a slight improvement on a W/L record so if you need to make up more than 2 games per week, forget about it. Anything less, and you're within striking distance.
Roto Question 1 - If you're already ahead of pace on innings pitched, there isn't a ton of opportunity to improve your pitching staff. Yes you can get better SP's and bolster your rate stats, but the fact is you have less innings remaining then most of the league so your upside in counting stats is limited. More important than your pace of innings pitched is your nearest competitors. Do you have more bullets to fire for the rest of the season or do you need to focus on being more efficient with less ammo?
Question 2 - If you want to be a buyer (and that's everyone's ultimate goal) you need assets to trade. The best asset is minor league talent because you give up nothing in the current year and get something valuable to help you this season. The more top prospects you own, the more reason you have to buy this season.
H2H Question 3 - Remaining strength of schedule is another crucial consideration. Are you facing playoff contenders the rest of the way, or have you already worked through the toughest part of your schedule? This goes hand in hand with determining what a reasonable amount of ground to make up is in Question 1. Be sure to compare your remaining strength of schedule to the other playoff contenders and be aggressive if this works in your favor. You might be able to make up more ground than you think.
Roto Question 3 - This answer might seem counterintuitive, but if you are in the bottom half of the league in 2 or 3 categories you have an opportunity to make up a ton of points. You can also easily identify what types of players to target in trades. If you're slightly above average in all categories, it is difficult to pick which categories to attack and you don't have much strength to deal from.
Question 4 - Players on the DL can be the same as a mid-season trade. Adam Eaton, Wandy Rodriguez, Chris Carpenter, and Josh Willingham could provide solid second halfs after not providing a ton of help in the first half. If you've had a few guys stashed on the DL, you are in a better position as a buyer as you have more help on the way.
Question 5 - Consider the age of your team's core. This has a lot to do with your current window of opportunity and if over 1/3^{rd} of your lineup is on the wrong side of 30, now might be your best chance to make a run at it. If less than 1/3^{rd} is over 30, then part ways with the old folks and re-load for a future run.
If you take into consideration all of these factors, plus any I may have not highlighted above, you will be able to make an informed decision on whether to buy or sell this trade deadline. Don't take the points framework above too seriously...it's kind of like Whose Line Is It Anyway? - Everything is made up and the points don't matter. Hell even my "girlfriend" at the beginning of this article was made up. Surprisingly, writing fantasy sports articles all day doesn't do too well with the ladies.