Chris Davis - 27 ... the Magical Mystery Kind

Earlier this season, I posted this about Chris Davis on Rotobanter.com. I included some GIF’s as well that show the (little) amount of effort it takes for his fly balls to leave the yard. He’s currently 5^th on Jeff Zimmerman’s homerun and fly ball average distance leaderboard, and Camden Yards has provided the 2^nd best park factor for left-handed hitters from a homerun perspective.

It’s time to validate his performance and throw myself under his bus. I figured some regression to the mean/career-average, wouldn’t you?

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Earlier in the season, I said this:

Prior to the season, I went with the following projection for Chris Davis:

506 AB*68.1 Ct%*38.25 FB%*19.50 HR/FB%=26 HR with a .264/.468/.791 avg/slg/ops. I am still pretty comfortable with the contact rate (up to 70%) and FB% which I looked at as a trend (35.8>36.8>37.5% the past three years). At 27 with a full season finally under his belt, he should continue to lift the ball. The 25.2% HR/FB should regress slightly, but Camden should keep it inflated, so I am inclined to up his HR/FB% a bit.

New Homerun Total Projection:

Let’s say he does amass a few more at-bats this year and project 520. If he can keep his Ct% at 70%, lift the ball to a 38.25% clip with a 21.18% HR/FB ratio (averaging the above list), then we should see 30 HR again. At this point a repeat of his HR & RBI total is likely.

According to CBS sports, he’s on pace for about 575 at bats so we’ll keep this projection in mind.

Contact Rate:

His contact rate remains elevated (74.5%) which has trended upward since 2011 and is back close to (but under) his 2010 rate of 75.10%. We can validate his contact rate by looking at the following matrix:

Season	Team	O-Swg%	Z-Swg%	Swg%	O-Ct%	Z-Ct%	Ct%	Zone%	F-Str%	SwStr%
2010	Rangers (AAA)
2010	Rangers	30.20%	70.40%	48.40%	58.50%	83.70%	75.10%	45.40%	55.90%	11.10%
2011	Rangers (AAA)
2011	2 Teams	45.60%	73.70%	57.00%	58.10%	77.90%	68.50%	40.50%	67.10%	17.40%
2012	Orioles	39.80%	77.60%	54.90%	56.00%	82.50%	71.00%	40.00%	62.60%	15.50%
2013	Orioles	33.30%	76.50%	51.60%	54.90%	86.10%	74.50%	42.40%	57.70%	12.50%
Total	- - -	37.40%	75.10%	53.90%	53.80%	79.00%	69.10%	43.60%	62.00%	16.10%

Customized profile courtesy of FanGraphs

He’s doing everything right. He’s swinging less overall (6+ % less at balls outside of the zone), he’s making more contact inside of the zone and missing less strikes at a nice trendy clip– basically enhancements across the board.

Balls in Play (BIP) Data:

Similar to his contact rate, he’s shown excellent BIP trends:

Season	Team	BABIP	GB/FB	LD%	GB%	FB%	IFFB%	HR/FB
2010	Rangers (AAA)	0.407
2010	Rangers	0.275	1.17	22.20%	42.00%	35.80%	6.90%	3.40%
2011	Rangers (AAA)	0.412
2011	2 Teams	0.366	1.04	25.00%	38.20%	36.80%	4.00%	10.00%
2012	Orioles	0.335	1.05	23.20%	39.30%	37.50%	3.10%	25.20%
2013	Orioles	0.398	0.75	24.30%	32.40%	43.20%	1.60%	31.30%
Total	- - -	0.343	0.92	23.30%	36.80%	39.80%	3.70%	20.90%

His expected BABIP this season based on his Line Drive rate should be closer to his 2011 BABIP of .363 so even if we were closer to that, he would be batting .322 right now instead of .357.

He isn’t one for popping balls up, but he’s got a miniscule infield fly ball% and perhaps is best improvement is his tremendous GB/FB ratio – his GB% dropped almost 7% from last year while his FB% jumped 5.7%. At 27, it’s no surprise he’s learned to lift the ball more. If his FB% remains above 40%, with his HR/FB ratio, we really are seriously talking 50 homeruns this year.

HR/FB:

Even a 25% HR/FB ratio would be impressive, but 30% is glorious. Here’s the list of players since 2010 with HR/FB ratios beyond 21%:

2012	Name	Team	Age	AB	Contact%	FB%	IFFB%	HR/FB	HR	xHR(600AB)
1	Adam Dunn	White Sox	32	539	69.70%	43.60%	8.60%	29.30%	41	53.4
2	Josh Hamilton	Rangers	31	562	64.70%	41.10%	4.20%	25.60%	43	40.8
3	Chris Davis	Orioles	26	515	71.00%	37.50%	3.10%	25.20%	33	40.3
4	Pedro Alvarez	Pirates	25	525	70.90%	34.50%	2.50%	25.00%	30	36.7
5	Curtis Granderson	Yankees	31	596	72.00%	44.00%	8.40%	24.20%	43	46.0
6	Robinson Cano	Yankees	29	627	82.80%	25.80%	9.50%	24.10%	33	30.9
7	Miguel Cabrera	Tigers	29	622	83.00%	36.00%	4.70%	23.00%	44	41.2
8	Ryan Braun	Brewers	28	598	80.10%	38.10%	6.10%	22.80%	41	41.7
9	Mike Trout	Angels	20	559	81.80%	33.00%	4.30%	21.60%	30	35.0
10	Chase Headley	Padres	28	604	74.80%	32.10%	6.90%	21.40%	31	30.8
11	Josh Willingham	Twins	33	519	75.90%	43.00%	12.70%	21.20%	35	41.5
12	Ike Davis	Mets	25	519	74.70%	40.00%	11.80%	21.10%	32	37.8
13	Kendrys Morales	Angels	29	484	75.50%	28.30%	7.60%	21.00%	22	26.9
2011	Name	Team	Age	AB	Contact%	FB%	IFFB%	HR/FB	HR
1	Giancarlo Stanton	Marlins	21	516	66.80%	38.50%	10.20%	24.80%	34	38.3
2	Mark Reynolds	Orioles	27	534	65.00%	47.80%	11.00%	22.70%	37	42.3
3	Jose Bautista	Blue Jays	30	513	79.60%	47.00%	15.20%	22.50%	43	50.5
4	Prince Fielder	Brewers	27	569	80.80%	37.10%	6.30%	21.80%	38	39.2
5	Ryan Howard	Phillies	31	557	67.90%	39.00%	2.60%	21.70%	33	34.5
6	Matt Kemp	Dodgers	26	602	73.30%	40.50%	2.20%	21.40%	39	38.1
7	Michael Morse	Nationals	29	522	76.80%	36.50%	4.80%	21.20%	31	35.7
2010	Name	Team	Age	AB	Contact%	FB%	IFFB%	HR/FB	HR
1	Joey Votto	Reds	26	547	77.70%	34.80%	0.00%	25.00%	37	40.6
2	Jose Bautista	Blue Jays	29	569	80.70%	54.50%	14.90%	21.70%	54	57.3
3	Adam Dunn	Nationals	30	558	68.20%	49.00%	6.70%	21.30%	38	42.7
4	Carlos Pena	Rays	32	484	69.90%	40.60%	9.80%	21.20%	28	36.1
5	Ryan Howard	Phillies	30	550	68.20%	37.10%	1.40%	21.10%	31	32.0

As you can see, if we cut the list off at 25%, we’re talking 5 performances (Dunn, Hamilton, Alvarez along with Davis last year and Votto from 2010). Still a short list, here’s what we have for 2013:

2013	Name	Team	Age	AB	Contact%	FB%	IFFB%	HR/FB	HR	xHR(600AB)
1	Chris Davis	Orioles	27	199	74.50%	43.20%	1.60%	31.30%	20	60.4
2	Domonic Brown	Phillies	25	202	80.40%	32.50%	11.30%	30.20%	16	47.3
3	Pedro Alvarez	Pirates	26	166	63.60%	34.60%	10.80%	29.70%	11	39.2
4	Bryce Harper	Nationals	20	150	76.00%	33.90%	7.30%	29.30%	12	45.3
5	Paul Goldschmidt	Diamondbacks	25	202	77.70%	32.50%	4.00%	26.00%	13	39.4
6	Justin Upton	Braves	25	197	69.90%	40.30%	9.30%	25.90%	14	43.8
7	Miguel Cabrera	Tigers	30	226	82.10%	36.10%	7.20%	24.60%	17	43.7
8	Robinson Cano	Yankees	30	221	86.60%	31.00%	8.80%	24.60%	14	39.6
9	Michael Morse	Mariners	31	173	70.40%	35.40%	2.20%	24.40%	11	36.5
10	Mark Reynolds	Indians	29	188	68.10%	42.10%	8.90%	23.20%	13	39.9
11	Adam Dunn	White Sox	33	181	68.50%	46.80%	3.80%	23.10%	12	44.4
12	Chris Carter	Astros	26	188	65.40%	43.60%	14.60%	22.90%	11	39.2
13	Shin-Soo Choo	Reds	30	205	78.40%	29.30%	0.00%	22.70%	10	31.3
14	Carlos Gonzalez	Rockies	27	213	73.90%	40.80%	9.70%	22.60%	14	40.9
15	Mark Trumbo	Angels	27	225	71.00%	35.40%	12.10%	22.40%	13	33.8
16	Joey Votto	Reds	29	214	78.40%	27.30%	0.00%	22.20%	10	28.5
17	Jose Bautista	Blue Jays	32	190	80.20%	36.80%	14.30%	21.40%	12	37.9

At this current rate, if Davis doesn’t slow down, he would approach Maris. Realistically, the rest of the way we could/should see the following:

376 AB * 73.5% contact rate * 39.5% fly ball rate * 27% HR/FB = 29-30 more homeruns meaning our first 50 HR season in a while, but even a slight drop off across the board and we see something like:

360 AB * 72% contact rate * 38.5% fly ball rate * 25.5% HR/FB = 25-26 more homeruns.

45-50 homeruns with 100 runs and 120 rbi’s will provide enough of a return on investment for where any of you drafted him or even bought high, but he’s on pace right now for 120-57-150.

While we would expect some regression in the B/KK department (BB% close to doubled and a 7% drop in K%), he’s showing enough signs where it would regress back to somewhere between this year and last and not right back to his career average meaning he should end the year with a .300-.320 avg.

Ah the mystical age 27 season. Chris Davis is exacerbating this irrational magical number.

Dan Schwartz owns and contributes for Rotobanter.com – a fantasy baseball site dedicated to answering visitor requests and promoting live discussion. Send us your requests here.