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Production Levels and Torii Hunter

After one hell of an April, what is Torii Hunter's 162 game pace? And what will it look like if (when) he falls short?

Jesse Johnson-US PRESSWIRE

Last week a reader asked if I could run the numbers on Torii Hunter's hot start, and see what his numbers would look like in each area with some decline. Obviously the batting average has been a major boon to fantasy owners, but the rest of his line worries me, enough that I'd consider selling high on Torii:

Baseline: 2013 (162 game pace) 765 712 .355 .398 .473 116 6 90 0

90% 765 712 .319 .356 .425 111 5 81 0
80% 765 712 .283 .319 .378 98 5 72 0
70% 765 712 .248 .281 .330 86 4 63 0
60% 765 712 .212 .244 .283 74 4 54 0

As we can see, because of the lack of slugging and speed even at his current pace, he quickly reaches a point f very little value. That said, it's unlikely that Hunter hits for such little power for the whole season, but just as unlikely (if not moreso) that he is able to sustain his batting average (and batting average driven OBP). His context driven stats should be fine given the lineup he's in, but that's not enough to stop me from trying to sell high, while the numbers look nice and shiny.

If there's anyone else you'd like a look at, please drop a line in the comments.