gr gr gr GREGORIUS

gr gr gr GREGORIUS

I’m more of an emo/alternative music type guy, but I can’t help chanting this to the tune of Notorious B.I.G.

I initially was attempting to sell high on him by pairing him with Beltran/Bautista + a prospect for Jean Segura (needed and still need SB quite a bit in this one league). Jean Segura has been a monster and even if he drops off, I expect him to approach 17hr/35+sb where his OBP and SLG would also be assets in this league. I posted on Mean Jean Segura and Starling Marte last week.

However, more and more, I am comfortable consuming my MI slot with Gregorius D.I.D.I. So let’s delve into him.

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Homerun potential:

As of 29May2013, Didi ranks 161^st on Jeff Zimmerman’s Homerun and Fly ball average distance leaderboards at 275.96 feet. 9.5% of his Fly balls have been belted for homeruns. For comparison-sake, let’s take a look at a few guys with average distances within a foot of Didi:

Rank	Name	Stance	Year	Hits	Distance	Angle	HR/FB	FB%	Ct%	HR	Park Factor
153	Jay Jon	L	2013	27	276.72	-7.52	10.3%	27.1%	81.6%	4	.93
154	Stubbs Drew	R	2013	25	276.67	5.07	6.5%	42.2%	70.8%	3	.93
159	Gardner Brett	L	2013	43	276.06	-5.65	9.4%	37.3%	86.6%	5	1.16
161	Gregorius Didi	L	2013	20	275.96	3.71	9.5%	46.2%	81.8%	4	1.02
162	Lowrie Jed	L	2013	31	275.85	5.86	5.2%	38.2%	88.2%	3	.94
163	Jackson Austin	R	2013	31	275.75	14.21	5.4%	31.6%	83.3%	2	1.04
166	Freeman Frederick	L	2013	27	275.62	-1.80	8.3%	31%	77%	3	.99
168	Carpenter Matt	L	2013	41	275.31	-4.48	6.9%	35.6%	90.7%	4	.93

Didi has the highest FB% among this group. His career MiLB FB% are 27.1% (OFB) and 12% (IFFB) totaling 39.1%. His MLB IFFB% this year is 11.9% giving him a 34.3% OFB%. In general, as players age, they learn to lift the ball more. I wouldn’t be surprised if his OFB slightly regresses, but he’s only 23 meaning his average distance should increase over time and into the next few years. Let’s say his Contact rate remains at 81%, in 400 at bats we should see something as follows:

400 AB * 81% Ct * 40% FB * 8.5% HR/FB = 11 HR.

Average:

His current contact rate of 81.8% is a fairly good translation from what it was in his MiLB career, but his batting average on balls in play (especially if his FB% remains elevated) should regress. Currently at .364, his expected BABIP based on his LD% is .340. Here on out we should expect a .320 to .340 giving way to an end average of about .285-.290.

Recommendation:

Didi should remain a MI asset, but if someone is desperate for a MI, I wouldn’t hesitate to sell high. If you’re in a keeper league and you plucked him off waivers, he could be a great cheap 85-18-58-8-.290 option as soon as next year (or this year if we’re lucky).

Send us offers you are fielding for him @Rotobanter on twitter or for longer more insightful responses, send us requests here at Rotobanter.com.

Related posts:

Freddie Freeman - His BIP Data is LD%-full and ISO-less

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Daniel Schwartz owns and contributes for Rotobanter.com – a fantasy baseball site dedicated to visitor requests and live discussion. You can follow him on twitter @Rotobanter or email him at rotobanter@gmail.com.