DL Stashes: Beachy, Pineda, Luebke & Hudson (TJS & TLS returns)

Last week, I received a request on why there is not enough hype on Daniel Hudson’s return. Here is my response.

Whether you’re drinking a Pineda Colada on a Beachy, Luebke-ing up with lotion or you’re near the Hudson, don’t forget about these DL stashes:

Player	Stint	INJ	ETA	Status	Source
Michael Pineda	60 day DL	Torn Labrum	Early June	Live BP and bullpen sessions in extended spring training	NY Daily News
NYY		(Surgery)		Throwing full repertoire and hitting 95 (sitting at 93)	Yankees.mlb.com & Bryan Hoch on Twitter
				"No longer thinks about his shoulder when throwing"	LoHud Yankees Blog
Brandon Beachy	15 day DL	Elbow	Mid-June	MiLB rehab assignment approaching	David O'Brien on Twitter
ATL		(TJS)		No setbacks
				Live BP in extended spring training
Daniel Hudson	60 day DL	Elbow	June	Live BP and bullpen sessions every 5 days	Diamondbacks.mlb.com
ARZ		(TJS)		No setbacks
Cory Luebke	60 day DL	Elbow	ASB	Throwing from 135 ft at flat ground (4/22)	SAN broadcaster Andy Masur
SAN		(TJS)		Minor setback in early March; pitching program shut down	Corey Brock on Twitter

I am no injury expert, but here is a great post from Jeff Zimmerman at Fangraphs regarding pitching injury potential. The fantasy world’s version of Nationals’ J. Zimmerman(n) broke it down into two groups: The first is pitchers who throw a large percentage of breaking balls. The second is pitchers who had problems throwing strikes. Let’s take a look at these two variables prior to their injuries:

1) Pitchers who throw a large percentage of breaking balls:

For context, here are the top slider and curveball hurlers from 2011

Rank	Name	SL%		Rank	Name	CB%
1	Ervin Santana	38.40%		1	Wandy Rodriguez	37.20%
2	Bud Norris	36.20%		2	A.J. Burnett	33.10%
3	Edwin Jackson	33.70%		3	Erik Bedard	31.20%
4	Madison Bumgarner	32.40%		4	Gio Gonzalez	27.80%
5	Michael Pineda	31.50%		5	Jeff Niemann	23.70%
6	Ryan Dempster	31.10%		6	Jonathon Niese	22.90%
7	Francisco Liriano	28.80%		7	Brett Myers	22.70%
8	Bruce Chen	28.70%		8	Ivan Nova	22.40%
9	Felipe Paulino	28.30%		9	Philip Humber	21.70%
10	Alexi Ogando	27.70%		10	James Shields	21.00%

Oh look… Michael Pineda (and Ogando for that matter) wound up as #5 on the ‘Those Who Throw Slides Most list’ (yes, this is the official name).

Here’s the rest of our list with their respective career pitch type breakdown and velocity:

	FB%	SL%	CB%	CH%	BrBa pitch f/x%	FaCh pitch f/x%	FA-Chdiff
Michael Pineda	62.2% (94.7)	31.5% (84.1)		6.3% (87.6)	31.50%	68.50%	7.1 mph
Brandon Beachy	61.6% (91.6)	17.9% (82.2)	9.7% (73.4)	10.9% (80.2)	18%	72.50%	11.4 mph
Daniel Hudson	62.8% (93.0)	14.4% (86.4)	0.3% (74.2)	21.8% (83.4)	14.40%	85.30%	9.6 mph
Cory Luebke	66.6% (91.3)	21.2% (83.7)	3.4% (76.7)	8.8% (84.7)	21.23%	75.40%	6.6 mph

BrBa% = Breaking Ball%

FaCh% = Fastball & Changeup%

FA-Chdiff = Fastball Changeup differential

For reference, these BrBa percentages would have ranked each SP’s breaking ball (not specific to the slider) quantity as follows in 2012 for those that reached the minimum IP requirement:

Michael Pineda = 25^th

Brandon Beachy = 36^th

Daniel Hudson = 46^th

Cory Luebke = 74^th

Again, for reference, MLB pitchers on average last year used sliders 14.40% of the time at 83.1 mph on average (curveballs 10.4% of the time at 77 mph). Hudson threw sliders at last year’s league average rate while the other three guys hurled them well beyond.

2) Pitchers who have problems throwing strikes:

Let’s look at their career %Strikes, Zone% and NIBB% (non-intentional base on balls) and JZimm’s DL potential:

	Name	Strike%	Balls%	Zone%	K%	BB%
1	Brandon Beachy	63.70%	36.30%	44.50%	25.80%	8.40%
2	Cory Luebke	65%	35.00%	45.50%	25.60%	7.60%
3	Daniel Hudson	65%	35.10%	45.10%	19.40%	6.00%
4	Michael Pineda	66.50%	33.50%	47.90%	24.90%	7.90%

% Strikes	DL%		Zone%	DL%		NIBB%	DL%
>64%	38.30%		>51.5%	34.50%		<6.5%	36.30%
62% to 64%	36.50%		51.5% to 49%	41.20%		6.5% to 8%	35.20%
<62%	36.30%		<49%	41.40%		>8%	39.60%

I would say that all four guys before their injuries fit JZimm’s DL potential mold.

So assuming they all come back around the same time, what can we expect? There are some intangible factors that we’ll have to account for:

They may be limited from using their breaking pitches and/or mentally, they may be concerned about using their breaking pitches. In any case, Eno Sarris at Fangraphs points to this effect by way of 24 starters:

		SL DIFF	FC DIFF	CU DIFF	CH DIFF	FS DIFF
Brett Anderson	SP	-0.037		0.056	-0.019
Chris Capuano	SP	0.068		0.007	-0.145
Matt Chico	SP	-0.043		-0.017	0.016
Jorge de la Rosa	SP	-0.049		-0.059		0.151
Rubby de la Rosa	SP	-0.065		-0.01	-0.026
Jaime Garcia	SP	0.144	-0.385	-0.074	0.068
Shawn Hill	SP	-0.072		-0.057	0.178
Tim Hudson	SP	-0.077	0.084	0.046		0.018
Josh Johnson	SP	0.008		0.047	0.08
Jesse Litsch	SP	-0.185	0.153	-0.092	-0.028
Shaun Marcum	SP	-0.051	0.021	0.035	0.038
Daisuke Matsuzaka	SP	-0.091	0.076	0.064	-0.006	0.021
Kris Medlen	SP			0.052	-0.04
Sergio Mitre	SP	0.02		0.049	-0.11
Jamie Moyer	SP	-0.011	-0.021	0.022	0.097
Russ Ortiz	SP	-0.147	0.234	0.088	0.008
Mike Pelfrey	SP	-0.054		0.023		-0.04
Ben Sheets	SP			-0.006	0.146
Stephen Strasburg	SP			-0.063	-0.003
Edinson Volquez	SP	-0.002		0.104	-0.056
Adam Wainwright	SP	-0.024	0.105	0.011	-0.013
Jake Westbrook	SP	0.026	-0.009	0.041	-0.024	0.003
Jordan Zimmermann	SP	0.069		0.009	-0.041
Total >>>		-0.029	0.029	0.012	0.006	0.031

"If you discount any pitchers that showed opposite signs in their slider and cutter classifications, eight of 13 starting pitchers used the slider less after surgery." I’ll personally consider the other 5 guys ballsy.

Again, sticking with JZimm, there are these general rules of thumb regarding Tommy John Surgery:

1. Most pitchers regain their velocity seen a year or two prior to the operation. Don’t look at the year that the injury happen as it is probably down. Go back a year. Sometimes they lose velocity coming back, but rarely gain from their all time high.

2. It takes a year for a pitcher throwing in the majors to get back to where they were previously performing. Some return to their previous form faster, others take a little longer, if at all.

Pitch f/x and weighted on base average:

So let’s look at their velocity and weighted on base average for each pitch in the full year prior to their injuries (2011):

Brandon Beachy
Season	Pitch	Pitches	BB%	K%	BB/K	AVG	ISO	BABIP	wOBA	Career pf/x (mph)
2011	FA	1209	7.90%	28.50%	0.28	0.24	0.12	0.313	0.296	61.6% (91.6)
2011	SL	460	5.40%	40.80%	0.13	0.17	0.15	0.258	0.235	17.9% (82.2)
2011	CH	245	5.30%	20.00%	0.27	0.29	0.17	0.352	0.34	10.9% (80.2)
2011	CU	228	2.20%	15.60%	0.14	0.28	0.09	0.333	0.302	9.7% (73.4)
2011	FC	226	5.70%	26.40%	0.21	0.26	0.22	0.303	0.34	< 5%
Cory Luebke
Season	Pitch	Pitches	BB%	K%	BB/K	AVG	ISO	BABIP	wOBA	Career pf/x (mph)
2011	FA	1513	10.50%	28.90%	0.36	0.2	0.14	0.25	0.277	62.8% (93.0)
2011	SL	607	2.60%	31.40%	0.08	0.21	0.1	0.293	0.241	21.2% (83.7)
2011	CH	161	0.00%	9.50%	0	0.29	0.12	0.316	0.299	8.8% (84.7)
2011	FT	62	9.10%	18.20%	0.5	0.33	0	0.429	0.337	<5%
Daniel Hudson
Season	Pitch	Pitches	BB%	K%	BB/K	AVG	ISO	BABIP	wOBA	Career pf/x (mph)
2011	FA	2119	6.80%	16.40%	0.42	0.26	0.12	0.306	0.311	66.6% (91.3)
2011	CH	756	2.70%	20.40%	0.13	0.26	0.16	0.298	0.3	21.8% (83.4)
2011	SL	558	3.40%	22.40%	0.15	0.22	0.17	0.252	0.277	14.4% (86.4)

Cory Luebke went with his breaking ball over 21% of the time; Beachy 18% of the time and Hudson almost 14.5% of the time. Based on the above wOBA data, Beachy has the most to lose if he does somewhat stray away from his slider. His slider had the lowest wOBA and the rest of his pitches yield a wOBA close to or beyond .300. On the other hand, Luebke’s fastball is still dominating (.277 wOBA). Hudson is in the same boat as Beachy except his slider isn’t as nearly as dominating (.277 wOBA vs. .235/Beachy and .241/Luebke).

2011 skill set (prior to injury year):

Let’s look at their skill sets from 2011:

2011	Age	SIERA	GB/FB	K/BB	K%	BB%	CT%	SwStr%
MLB Avg >>>		3.88	1.33	2.48	19.80%	8.00%	79.70%	9.10%
Cory Luebke	26	2.89	1	3.5	27.80%	7.90%	76.40%	10.90%
Daniel Hudson	24	3.78	1.07	3.38	18.40%	5.40%	78.90%	9.90%
Brandon Beachy	24	2.94	0.75	3.67	28.60%	7.80%	74.10%	11.80%
Michael Pineda	22	3.36	0.81	3.15	24.90%	7.90%	75.80%	11.80%

Recommendations:

In a standard 5x5 league, the above data keeps me from truly wanting Daniel Hudson, but his K/BB as soon as 2014 could look similar to the other three because of his control. Beachy and Pineda can probably be considered the most dominating options from their contact rate and percentage of strikes that were swung and missed highlighted above. If you want the highest upside (pre-injury) I would lean toward Pineda or Beachy. Luebke may have the quickest success due to the success of his Fastball (and Changeup), but he’s also a Padre so keep that in mind if you need wins. With most of their workloads and pitch counts capped, it will be a concern for them all. Atlanta has the best bullpen if we’re dragging this thought out.

Thus far we focused mostly on the TJS guys so let’s quickly look at TLS (Torn Labrum Surgery):

Here is a great post by @injuryexpert (Will Carroll) regarding Torn Labrum Surgery. This quote about Michael Pineda sums it up:

But if pitchers with torn labrums were horses, they'd be destroyed. Of the 36 major-league hurlers diagnosed with labrum tears in the last five years, only midlevel reliever Rocky Biddle has returned to his previous level. Think about that when your favorite pitcher comes down with labrum trouble: He has a 3 percent chance of becoming Rocky Biddle.

The good news is, Michael Pineda is already sitting at 93 topping out at 95 and "isn’t even thinking about his shoulder when he throws." Keep in mind, we only had a one year sample to go off of, but check out this Pineada gif uploaded by Jeff Sullivan:

So nasty, his catcher at the time, Miguel Olivo was baffled, let alone the batter. Here are a slew of them for you to enjoy:

http://seattle.sbnation.com/seattle-mariners/2011/4/13/2109300/michael-pineda-pitch-gif-seattle-mariners-toronto-blue-jays

I really liked his repertoire, associated velocity, pitch selection and that nasty slider. I did not draft him but will try buying with the hopes of 90% of what he could have been pre-surgery. Buy and stash for now and hope he doesn’t fatigue.

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Dan Schwartz owns and contributes for Rotobanter.com - dedicated to fantasy baseball visitor requests and live discussion. You can follow him on twitter @rotobanter.