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Earlier this week, I referenced my woulda-coulda-shoulda teams while looking at Jean Segura, Starling Marte and Carlos Gomez. We're just over a quarter-way through the season now, and I couldn't wait until the All Star break to share one so let's look at 2013v1.0. We'll redo the list half-way through and at seasons’ end.
In v2 and v3, we’ll make it a bit more official (depicting the average draft position from public and expert mock drafts). The team will be inherently unrealistic so there are obvious reaches/assumptions built-in i.e. our first pick is Miguel Cabrera meaning we picked let’s say in the top 3 picks in odd rounds and bottom 3 picks in even rounds. I have the pleasure of owning him in my favorite league (probably because I own him).
Instead of calling the team irrational, let’s just say we had some fantasy baseball draft BABIP or VBADP (Value Beyond Average Draft Position):
Without further ado:
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1
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Miguel Cabrera
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3b
|
|
2
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Buster Posey
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c;1b
|
|
3
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Paul Goldschmidt
|
1b
|
|
4
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Adam Jones
|
of1
|
|
5
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Shin Soo Choo
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of2
|
|
6
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Jason Kipnis
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2b
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|
7
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Alex Rios
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of3
|
|
8
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Wilin Rosario
|
c2
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|
9
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Matt Harvey
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sp1
|
|
10
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Anibal Sanchez
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sp2
|
|
11
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Clay Buchholz
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sp3
|
|
12
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Chris Davis
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ci
|
|
13
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Shelby Miller
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sp4
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|
14
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Trevor Cahill
|
sp5
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|
15
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Alex Cobb
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sp6
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|
16
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Carlos Gomez
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of4
|
|
17
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Manny Machado
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u
|
|
18
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Addison Reed
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cl1
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|
19
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Starling Marte
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of5
|
|
20
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Everth Cabrera
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ss
|
|
21
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Jean Segura
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mi
|
|
22
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Bobby Parnell
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cl2
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|
23
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Hisashi Iwakuma
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sp7
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|
24
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Justin Masterson
|
b
|
|
25
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Patrick Corbin
|
b
|
|
26
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Edward Mujica
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cl3
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|
27
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Jim Henderson
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cl4
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|
28
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Mark Reynolds
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b
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|
29
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Vernon Wells
|
b
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Here’s the team (standard CBS roster) with their ESPN player rater value and notes on the right if you want to know what I think from a buy/sell perspective based on skill/luck (scroll right):
|
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ESPN PR
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as of 5/24/13
|
AVG
|
R
|
HR
|
RBI
|
SB
|
Notes
|
|
c
|
118
|
Buster Posey
|
0.3
|
19
|
6
|
28
|
0
|
|
|
c
|
68
|
Wilin Rosario
|
0.28
|
21
|
9
|
27
|
3
|
#37 on the HR & FB Batted Ball Avg. Dist. Leaderboard. May lack discipline, but the more FB in play, the more HR
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|
1b
|
6
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Paul Goldschmidt
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0.32
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31
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12
|
36
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4
|
#1 HR & FB Batted Ball Avg. Dist. Validates HR/FB
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|
2b
|
57
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Jason Kipnis
|
0.25
|
22
|
7
|
24
|
9
|
|
|
3b
|
1
|
Miguel Cabrera
|
0.39
|
39
|
14
|
55
|
1
|
Can't say enough so here's a great GIF. How he turned and spanked that high inside FB for a HR, I have no idea
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|
ss
|
35
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Everth Cabrera
|
0.25
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25
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2
|
15
|
18
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Meh but 18 SB
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|
ci
|
5
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Chris Davis
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0.33
|
30
|
15
|
44
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0
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#5 HR & FB Batted Ball Avg. Dist.; Don't Sell High b/c of solid Trends (GB/FB; BB/K);^Ct%
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|
mi
|
3
|
Jean Segura
|
0.35
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26
|
7
|
20
|
14
|
Surprised to see him at #31 on the HR & FB Avg. Dist list (300+ ft); FB% (only 25%) should prevent HR total that approaches 20
|
|
of
|
7
|
Adam Jones
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0.32
|
34
|
7
|
31
|
8
|
|
|
of
|
27
|
Shin-Soo Choo
|
0.3
|
37
|
9
|
19
|
5
|
|
|
of
|
10
|
Alex Rios
|
0.31
|
28
|
10
|
27
|
8
|
|
|
of
|
29
|
Carlos Gomez
|
0.33
|
23
|
6
|
20
|
9
|
Sell high! Ct%, BB/K identical to '12 but .405 BABIP to date unsustainable
|
|
of
|
14
|
Starling Marte
|
0.31
|
35
|
5
|
17
|
11
|
Sell high candidate but should still end w/ 14 HR/28 SB campaign
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|
u
|
25
|
Manny Machado
|
0.33
|
32
|
5
|
28
|
4
|
Maybe Miggy saw this comp which motivated him to take-off
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|
b
|
41
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Mark Reynolds
|
0.26
|
26
|
12
|
40
|
1
|
No truly defining luck other than a somewhat inflated HR/FB but #13 Avg. Dist; Slight drop in K% but same Ct%. Buy if you're in OBP/SLG leagues.
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|
b
|
47
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Vernon Wells
|
0.29
|
24
|
10
|
24
|
4
|
17.5% HR/FB is freken impressive since 20% of his FB are IFFB, which is nothing new for him. Maybe some luck in BABIP but Ct% in line with what we should expect from a 34 year-old wells. With continued health and similar peripherals we could see 70-25-70-9-.270 or better which is playable in almost all leagues (assuming Ichiro doesn't take off and steal PT)
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|
|
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TOTAL:
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0.31
|
452
|
136
|
455
|
99
|
|
|
|
ESPN PR
|
as of 5/24/13
|
W
|
SV
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K
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ERA
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WHIP
|
Notes
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|
sp
|
12
|
Matt Harvey
|
5
|
0
|
74
|
1.93
|
0.83
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K/BB;GB/FB;HR/FB - all the right trends. Luck in BABIP is offset by Bad Luck due to little or no offensive support. C'mon Mets!
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|
sp
|
89
|
Anibal Sanchez
|
4
|
0
|
68
|
2.77
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1.23
|
2.77 ERA validated by even better 2.68 SIERA! Elite K/BB & better than avg. GB/FB ratios (actually has an elevated BABIP)
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|
sp
|
13
|
Clay Buchholz
|
7
|
0
|
73
|
1.73
|
1.05
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Nice GB/FB and K/BB trend, but great example of luck (3.7% HR/FB; 84.7% LOB); BABIP somewhat in line (.263). He's more of a 3.5 ERA guy (3.46 SIERA)
|
|
rp
|
53
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Addison Reed
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1
|
16
|
24
|
2.14
|
1.05
|
|
|
rp
|
100
|
Bobby Parnell
|
4
|
6
|
18
|
2.21
|
0.89
|
|
|
rp
|
78
|
Edward Mujica
|
0
|
13
|
19
|
2.25
|
0.65
|
Perfect example why you shoudlnt spend to much for a closer. Him & Hendy below have provided quite the ROI thus far
|
|
p
|
81
|
Jim Henderson
|
2
|
9
|
23
|
0.95
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0.79
|
Samsies
|
|
p
|
33
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Shelby Miller
|
5
|
0
|
62
|
1.74
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0.93
|
Only 2 real pitches & 1st full season. He's a sell high in re-draft leagues as hitters will learn/catch-up.Still no reason to expect worse than a 3.5 ERA
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|
p
|
143
|
Trevor Cahill
|
3
|
0
|
44
|
2.81
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1.17
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Along with Cobb, he's a GB/FB master; K/BB not nearly as nice as Cobb's which gives him an expected ERA slightly above 4.00. BABIP, HR/FB and LOB should regress negatively
|
|
b
|
77
|
Alex Cobb
|
5
|
0
|
54
|
2.73
|
1.13
|
Unlike Cahill, here's a GB/FB master with a great K/BB ratio approaching 4.0. Luck in the LOB% but bad luck in the HR/FB. Skill & Luck combined, he's should be a true 3.33 guy moving forward
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|
b
|
30
|
Hisashi Iwakuma
|
5
|
0
|
61
|
2.37
|
0.87
|
5.55 K/BB with regression is still elite. xBABIP more like .260+ (currently .220 BABIP). Luck in the LOB dept as well. If GB/FB doesn't pick up to the elite level it was last year, we need more/continued luck in the HR/FB dept and the K/BB needs to remain elevated. SIERA says 3.10. Expect 3.5 to 3.7 here on out
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|
b
|
37
|
Justin Masterson
|
7
|
0
|
71
|
2.83
|
1.13
|
The fly balls will turn into line drives jumping his BABIP back up to 3.00 (currently .278). If HR/FB and LOB% both regress his ERA will approach his expected ERA before you know it (3.5+)
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|
b
|
18
|
Patrick Corbin
|
7
|
0
|
51
|
1.44
|
0.98
|
Epitomic example of luck. K/BB regressed from last year, but HR/FB (3.9%), LOB (88.2%) and BABIP (.246) all unsustainable althought the ^Velocity and great GB/FB ratio will keep him sub 3.75
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|
|
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TOTAL:
|
55
|
44
|
642
|
2.26
|
1.04
|
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What would you have done differently in your league(s)? How good is your team? Send me your requests here for quick insight beyond a simple twitter response.
Otherwise, just comment below and Roto Banter away.
…
Daniel Schwartz owns and contributes for Rotobanter.com – a fantasy baseball site dedicated to answering visitor requests and promoting live discussion. You can follow him on twitter @Rotobanter.