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Earlier this week, I referenced my woulda-coulda-shoulda teams while looking at Jean Segura, Starling Marte and Carlos Gomez. We're just over a quarter-way through the season now, and I couldn't wait until the All Star break to share one so let's look at 2013v1.0. We'll redo the list half-way through and at seasons’ end.
In v2 and v3, we’ll make it a bit more official (depicting the average draft position from public and expert mock drafts). The team will be inherently unrealistic so there are obvious reaches/assumptions built-in i.e. our first pick is Miguel Cabrera meaning we picked let’s say in the top 3 picks in odd rounds and bottom 3 picks in even rounds. I have the pleasure of owning him in my favorite league (probably because I own him).
Instead of calling the team irrational, let’s just say we had some fantasy baseball draft BABIP or VBADP (Value Beyond Average Draft Position):
Without further ado:
1
|
Miguel Cabrera
|
3b
|
2
|
Buster Posey
|
c;1b
|
3
|
Paul Goldschmidt
|
1b
|
4
|
Adam Jones
|
of1
|
5
|
Shin Soo Choo
|
of2
|
6
|
Jason Kipnis
|
2b
|
7
|
Alex Rios
|
of3
|
8
|
Wilin Rosario
|
c2
|
9
|
Matt Harvey
|
sp1
|
10
|
Anibal Sanchez
|
sp2
|
11
|
Clay Buchholz
|
sp3
|
12
|
Chris Davis
|
ci
|
13
|
Shelby Miller
|
sp4
|
14
|
Trevor Cahill
|
sp5
|
15
|
Alex Cobb
|
sp6
|
16
|
Carlos Gomez
|
of4
|
17
|
Manny Machado
|
u
|
18
|
Addison Reed
|
cl1
|
19
|
Starling Marte
|
of5
|
20
|
Everth Cabrera
|
ss
|
21
|
Jean Segura
|
mi
|
22
|
Bobby Parnell
|
cl2
|
23
|
Hisashi Iwakuma
|
sp7
|
24
|
Justin Masterson
|
b
|
25
|
Patrick Corbin
|
b
|
26
|
Edward Mujica
|
cl3
|
27
|
Jim Henderson
|
cl4
|
28
|
Mark Reynolds
|
b
|
29
|
Vernon Wells
|
b
|
Here’s the team (standard CBS roster) with their ESPN player rater value and notes on the right if you want to know what I think from a buy/sell perspective based on skill/luck (scroll right):
|
ESPN PR
|
as of 5/24/13
|
AVG
|
R
|
HR
|
RBI
|
SB
|
Notes
|
c
|
118
|
Buster Posey
|
0.3
|
19
|
6
|
28
|
0
|
|
c
|
68
|
Wilin Rosario
|
0.28
|
21
|
9
|
27
|
3
|
#37 on the HR & FB Batted Ball Avg. Dist. Leaderboard. May lack discipline, but the more FB in play, the more HR
|
1b
|
6
|
Paul Goldschmidt
|
0.32
|
31
|
12
|
36
|
4
|
#1 HR & FB Batted Ball Avg. Dist. Validates HR/FB
|
2b
|
57
|
Jason Kipnis
|
0.25
|
22
|
7
|
24
|
9
|
|
3b
|
1
|
Miguel Cabrera
|
0.39
|
39
|
14
|
55
|
1
|
Can't say enough so here's a great GIF. How he turned and spanked that high inside FB for a HR, I have no idea
|
ss
|
35
|
Everth Cabrera
|
0.25
|
25
|
2
|
15
|
18
|
Meh but 18 SB
|
ci
|
5
|
Chris Davis
|
0.33
|
30
|
15
|
44
|
0
|
#5 HR & FB Batted Ball Avg. Dist.; Don't Sell High b/c of solid Trends (GB/FB; BB/K);^Ct%
|
mi
|
3
|
Jean Segura
|
0.35
|
26
|
7
|
20
|
14
|
Surprised to see him at #31 on the HR & FB Avg. Dist list (300+ ft); FB% (only 25%) should prevent HR total that approaches 20
|
of
|
7
|
Adam Jones
|
0.32
|
34
|
7
|
31
|
8
|
|
of
|
27
|
Shin-Soo Choo
|
0.3
|
37
|
9
|
19
|
5
|
|
of
|
10
|
Alex Rios
|
0.31
|
28
|
10
|
27
|
8
|
|
of
|
29
|
Carlos Gomez
|
0.33
|
23
|
6
|
20
|
9
|
Sell high! Ct%, BB/K identical to '12 but .405 BABIP to date unsustainable
|
of
|
14
|
Starling Marte
|
0.31
|
35
|
5
|
17
|
11
|
Sell high candidate but should still end w/ 14 HR/28 SB campaign
|
u
|
25
|
Manny Machado
|
0.33
|
32
|
5
|
28
|
4
|
Maybe Miggy saw this comp which motivated him to take-off
|
b
|
41
|
Mark Reynolds
|
0.26
|
26
|
12
|
40
|
1
|
No truly defining luck other than a somewhat inflated HR/FB but #13 Avg. Dist; Slight drop in K% but same Ct%. Buy if you're in OBP/SLG leagues.
|
b
|
47
|
Vernon Wells
|
0.29
|
24
|
10
|
24
|
4
|
17.5% HR/FB is freken impressive since 20% of his FB are IFFB, which is nothing new for him. Maybe some luck in BABIP but Ct% in line with what we should expect from a 34 year-old wells. With continued health and similar peripherals we could see 70-25-70-9-.270 or better which is playable in almost all leagues (assuming Ichiro doesn't take off and steal PT)
|
|
|
TOTAL:
|
0.31
|
452
|
136
|
455
|
99
|
|
|
ESPN PR
|
as of 5/24/13
|
W
|
SV
|
K
|
ERA
|
WHIP
|
Notes
|
sp
|
12
|
Matt Harvey
|
5
|
0
|
74
|
1.93
|
0.83
|
K/BB;GB/FB;HR/FB - all the right trends. Luck in BABIP is offset by Bad Luck due to little or no offensive support. C'mon Mets!
|
sp
|
89
|
Anibal Sanchez
|
4
|
0
|
68
|
2.77
|
1.23
|
2.77 ERA validated by even better 2.68 SIERA! Elite K/BB & better than avg. GB/FB ratios (actually has an elevated BABIP)
|
sp
|
13
|
Clay Buchholz
|
7
|
0
|
73
|
1.73
|
1.05
|
Nice GB/FB and K/BB trend, but great example of luck (3.7% HR/FB; 84.7% LOB); BABIP somewhat in line (.263). He's more of a 3.5 ERA guy (3.46 SIERA)
|
rp
|
53
|
Addison Reed
|
1
|
16
|
24
|
2.14
|
1.05
|
|
rp
|
100
|
Bobby Parnell
|
4
|
6
|
18
|
2.21
|
0.89
|
|
rp
|
78
|
Edward Mujica
|
0
|
13
|
19
|
2.25
|
0.65
|
Perfect example why you shoudlnt spend to much for a closer. Him & Hendy below have provided quite the ROI thus far
|
p
|
81
|
Jim Henderson
|
2
|
9
|
23
|
0.95
|
0.79
|
Samsies
|
p
|
33
|
Shelby Miller
|
5
|
0
|
62
|
1.74
|
0.93
|
Only 2 real pitches & 1st full season. He's a sell high in re-draft leagues as hitters will learn/catch-up.Still no reason to expect worse than a 3.5 ERA
|
p
|
143
|
Trevor Cahill
|
3
|
0
|
44
|
2.81
|
1.17
|
Along with Cobb, he's a GB/FB master; K/BB not nearly as nice as Cobb's which gives him an expected ERA slightly above 4.00. BABIP, HR/FB and LOB should regress negatively
|
b
|
77
|
Alex Cobb
|
5
|
0
|
54
|
2.73
|
1.13
|
Unlike Cahill, here's a GB/FB master with a great K/BB ratio approaching 4.0. Luck in the LOB% but bad luck in the HR/FB. Skill & Luck combined, he's should be a true 3.33 guy moving forward
|
b
|
30
|
Hisashi Iwakuma
|
5
|
0
|
61
|
2.37
|
0.87
|
5.55 K/BB with regression is still elite. xBABIP more like .260+ (currently .220 BABIP). Luck in the LOB dept as well. If GB/FB doesn't pick up to the elite level it was last year, we need more/continued luck in the HR/FB dept and the K/BB needs to remain elevated. SIERA says 3.10. Expect 3.5 to 3.7 here on out
|
b
|
37
|
Justin Masterson
|
7
|
0
|
71
|
2.83
|
1.13
|
The fly balls will turn into line drives jumping his BABIP back up to 3.00 (currently .278). If HR/FB and LOB% both regress his ERA will approach his expected ERA before you know it (3.5+)
|
b
|
18
|
Patrick Corbin
|
7
|
0
|
51
|
1.44
|
0.98
|
Epitomic example of luck. K/BB regressed from last year, but HR/FB (3.9%), LOB (88.2%) and BABIP (.246) all unsustainable althought the ^Velocity and great GB/FB ratio will keep him sub 3.75
|
|
|
TOTAL:
|
55
|
44
|
642
|
2.26
|
1.04
|
|
What would you have done differently in your league(s)? How good is your team? Send me your requests here for quick insight beyond a simple twitter response.
Otherwise, just comment below and Roto Banter away.
…
Daniel Schwartz owns and contributes for Rotobanter.com – a fantasy baseball site dedicated to answering visitor requests and promoting live discussion. You can follow him on twitter @Rotobanter.