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Production Levels and Dexter Fowler

Fowler is off to a hot start. What will reductions to his 162 game pace look like?

By Craig Goldstein
Dustin Bradford

Last week Ray asked me to take a look at Dexter Fowler considering the start he's gotten off to. What I did was take his current stats and make a 162 game average out of them, and then start reducing from there. Obviously the home run pace is more than one can expect out of Fowler, but there's also the chance that he can pick up some value with extra stolen bases. Hopefully this look at what he can provide even with a reduction in his current onpace numbers can help you decide if you want to sell high on him. Again, I'd guess he underperform even the 60% home run numbers, but the other stats could be more at the 80% level.

PA AB BA OBP SLG R HR RBI SB
Baseline: 2013 (162 game pace) 687 594 .286 .382 .623 116 54 93 23










90% 687 594 .257 .341 .560 104 49 84 21
80% 687 594 .230 .308 .498 93 43 74 18
70% 687 594 .200 .274 .436 81 39 65 16
60% 687 594 .172 .239 .374 70 32 56 14














If there is anyone else off to a hot start that you'd like this done for, let me know. If these are useful, I'm happy to keep doing them so let me know.