Know the Host of the Party (Part 1)

My first week of college was a bit of an eye-opener. Plenty of lessons were learned and a lot of innocence was lost. One of the most important lessons my friends and I learned is to always, always, always know the host of the party, or at the very least, know someone who knows the host very, very well. This same rule can be applied to your fantasy baseball draft (and luckily without the possible legal repercussions if you violate the rule). Jason recently wrote a piece advocating for as many mock drafts as possible and touched on an issue that sparked the following question: How much do the host website's player rankings affect the outcome of the draft?

Quantifying this answer would require having the same group of managers conduct a draft on two different sites with the same draft order and similar rule settings. Even still this wouldn't provide a perfect answer as decisions made in the first draft will undoubtedly affect a manager's decision in the second. This problem led me to pose the question in a different manner: Which players have the most variance in their rankings across websites? Understanding which players are over/under valued on certain sites could help in deciding whether to reach for a certain player, or hold off a round or two and hope they fall. Most fantasy advice is not site-specific so have to put all ranking/ADP information in context of the site you are drafting on.

My research centered on the top 300 or so players because the variance between sites on players ranked lower than 300 is almost too high to make any sense of. This first part will focus on the hitters, and I will unveil the pitchers later in the week. My findings below will list 8 players for each of site (Yahoo!, ESPN, CBS Sports), 4 of which are overrated by the site and 4 that are underrated. Keep in mind that by overrated and underrated I only mean within the context of the other site's rankings. My personal opinions on each player are located in the blurb beneath each section. The table below each player's name represents that player's ranking on each site. Rankings are for hitters only and pitchers are excluded from the rankings.

Yahoo's Underrated

Yadier Molina

Yahoo	CBS	ESPN	Mock Draft Central
57	40	38	32

Matt Wieters

Yahoo	CBS	ESPN	Mock Draft Central
62	45	42	47

Mark Trumbo

Yahoo	CBS	ESPN	Mock Draft Central
89	61	73	54

Emilio Bonifacio

Yahoo	CBS	ESPN	Mock Draft Central
163	117	151	144

Molina and Wieters give you even more of a reason to wait on catching when playing on Yahoo. The position appears to be incredibly balanced from spots 5-12, but if you feel the need to grab one of the top tier players, you can probably get them later than usual. Trumbo and Bonifacio appear to be excellent late sources of power and speed. Trumbo's brutal 2^nd half could be causing his stock to sag a little bit and Yahoo owners should take advantage by grabbing him in the 10^th or 11^th Round. Bonifacio is a pure speed play, but if he sticks at 2B at the bottom of the Toronto lineup, he will have Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion batting behind him. That is big time upside.

Yahoo's Overrated

Pablo Sandoval

Yahoo	CBS	ESPN	Mock Draft Central
44	63	58	83

Carlos Beltran

Yahoo	CBS	ESPN	Mock Draft Central
67	97	84	80

Michael Cuddyer

Yahoo	CBS	ESPN	Mock Draft Central
108	133	135	127

Nick Markakis

Yahoo	CBS	ESPN	Mock Draft Central
90	102	136	114

These rankings are all pretty ugly in my opinion. Beltran entering his age 36 season, Sandoval's inability to stay healthy, and Cuddyer coming off a down year are all reasons to avoid reaching for these players. I really like Markakis' chances at a bounce back season and will have a post on him later this week, but leave the other three for the managers who rely too heavily on the site's rankings.

ESPN Underrated

Wilin Rosario

Yahoo	CBS	ESPN	Mock Draft Central
68	52	114	59

Paul Goldschmidt

Yahoo	CBS	ESPN	Mock Draft Central
36	41	52	19

Adam Dunn

Yahoo	CBS	ESPN	Mock Draft Central
104	120	150	104

Brian McCann

Yahoo	CBS	ESPN	Mock Draft Central
86	101	161	110

All 3 of these guys could be available for great value at ESPN leagues. Rosario coming off a huge rookie year would normally be a candidate for the overrated section, but if ESPN has him outside of the top 100 offensive players. I'm all aboard the Goldschmidt bandwagon and think he's going to put up great numbers for the next few season in Arizona. Dunn is another great source of power at around pick 150, and I like McCann for a rebound season after struggling in 2012. If you could get all 4 of these players at the spots listed above, you would be in great shape for 2013.

ESPN Overrated

Brandon Phillips

Yahoo	CBS	ESPN	Mock Draft Central
46	53	33	60

Michael Bourn

Yahoo	CBS	ESPN	Mock Draft Central
60	55	44	56

Austin Jackson

Yahoo	CBS	ESPN	Mock Draft Central
64	81	46	75

Alcides Escobar

Yahoo	CBS	ESPN	Mock Draft Central
118	130	91	138

A quick look at the results for "ESPN overrated" and the theme is obvious: Speed, speed, and more speed. Carlos Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, Michael Bourn, Desmond Jennings, Carlos Gomez, Brett Gardner, Dexter Fowler, and the 4 players listed above, all are being ranked higher on ESPN than any other website. You're going to have to pay full value for speed, but that means power will come a bit cheaper and you can stand to wait an extra round or two on the guys like Dunn and Rosario mentioned above.

CBS Underrated

B.J. Upton

Yahoo	CBS	ESPN	Mock Draft Central
38	57	37	21

Brett Lawrie

Yahoo	CBS	ESPN	Mock Draft Central
42	69	43	53

Eric Hosmer

Yahoo	CBS	ESPN	Mock Draft Central
73	92	70	68

Adam LaRoche

Yahoo	CBS	ESPN	Mock Draft Central
94	135	96	82

More excellent value picks here. I really like LaRoche at 135^th hitter off the board. If you don't have to worry about 1B and can fill up the rest of your infield with your earlier picks and still get 75/25/90/.270 production out of your first basemen slot, you're in great shape. I'm not entirely sold on Brett Lawrie yet, it could just be the over-the-top personality that turns me off, but getting the upside he provides as the 69^th hitter off the board isn't a bad pick.

CBS Overrated

Joe Mauer

Yahoo	CBS	ESPN	Mock Draft Central
49	35	49	46

Jose Altuve

Yahoo	CBS	ESPN	Mock Draft Central
69	47	61	74

Rickie Weeks

Yahoo	CBS	ESPN	Mock Draft Central
82	67	94	103

Will Middlebrooks

Yahoo	CBS	ESPN	Mock Draft Central
103	73	116	105

I actually don't have too many issues with where CBS has these players slotted. Weeks is not as bad as his 2012 stats reflect and he should return break-even value at the 67^th position. I'm also a big Will Middlebrooks believer and have a tendency to reach for him in most drafts anyways. Altuve will always be a favorite, if at the very least for nostalgic purposes as a tribute to the Up and In podcast.

These rankings are by no means a guarantee that you can get these players at the spot specified, however it is meant to be an additional input for your draft day decisions when debating whether to pull the trigger on a certain player or risk it that they fall to the next round.