2014 Minor League Keeper Thoughts: Miami Marlins

The prospect staff here at Fake Teams will be taking an in-depth look at each major league organization, including our top 10 fantasy prospects, an overview of the organization's minor league system as a whole and potential opportunities for playing time in 2014. Our goal is to provide you with more information as you prepare for minor league drafts for dynasty and keeper leagues, as well as look at players that could potentially be worth watching during the spring, as they could be in line to potentially help your fantasy team. We will be reviewing two teams per week until we are through all 30 teams, and you can see the schedule of when your favorite team will be reviewed below.

System Schedule

AL East	AL Central	AL West	NL East	NL Central	NL West
Baltimore	Chicago	Houston	Atlanta	Chicago (12/23)	Arizona (1/9)
Boston	Cleveland	Los Angeles	Miami (Today)	Cincinnati (12/26)	Colorado (1/13)
New York	Detroit	Oakland	New York (12/12)	Milwaukee (12/30)	Los Angeles (1/16)
Tampa Bay	Kansas City	Seattle	Philadelphia (12/16)	Pittsburgh (1/2)	San Diego (1/20)
Toronto	Minnesota	Texas	Washington (12/19)	St. Louis (1/6)	San Francisco (1/23)

Organizational Overview
By Brian Creagh (@briancreagh)

For all the criticism the Marlins received for the Reyes, Buehrle, Johnson, Buck, and Bonifacio blockbuster, Miami only lost 7 more games in 2013 without them. In fact, it's not a difficult argument to make that the Marlins are now much better off as a result of the trade. Josh Johnson was useless this year and the Marlins would not have received much for his expiring contract at the deadline. Reyes managed only 93 games as his string of injuries continued and the $82 Million he's owed for the next 4 years looks more and more like an albatross. Buehrle managed a full 200 innings of league-average performance, but the $18 Million he's owed the next two seasons wouldn't net more than a B-level prospect on the trade market. For these three players the Marlins received a useful rotation piece and recent no-hit performer Henderson Alvarez, a future big-league centerfielder in Jake Marisnick, and another rotation piece and Top 5 prospect Justin Nicolino. At the very least, the Marlins were able to flip some expensive contracts for cheap major league caliber players whose peak seasons will better align with the timeline of the rest of Miami's organization.

This timeline is driven by the young, impact talent recently promoted to Miami and the top-heavy prospect list on the cusp of the big leagues. Andrew Heaney is primed to front the Miami rotation; and Justin Nicolino, Adam Conley, and Anthony DeSclafani are all in AA and ready to give the rotation a plethora of arms with 55-60 grade ceilings. Combine these 4 arms with stud Jose Fernandez, the power arm of Nate Eovaldi, and intriguing arms of Jacob Turner, and Henderson Alvarez and the Marlins could have one of the deepest stables of arms in the majors.

The offense will build around all-pro slugger Giancarlo Stanton, the previously mentioned Jake Marisnick, 2013 first round draft pick Colin Moran, and future star Christian Yelich. The Marlins are also a near lock to acquire a future offensive monster in either Alex Jackson or Trea Turner with the second pick in the 2014 Amateur Draft. Combine all this young talent with the financial flexibility that comes with having only one player guaranteed money in 2015, and the Marlins are on an accelerated track to playoff contention.

The Miami organization has been the center of a lot of negative publicity thanks to the shady dealings of Jeffrey Loria, but deserving or not, this franchise can turn things around in a hurry. Unfortunately, the fan base may not be coming back any time soon, as evidenced by the anemic attendance numbers in 2013. Winning fixes everything, and the development of a few key prospects could put the Marlins in playoff contention in the next 2 or 3 years.

2013 Graduates

The following players have surpassed their rookie maximums of 130 AB, 50 IP, or 45 days of service time prior to September 1st of this year.

Marcell Ozuna (at bats), Christian Yelich (at bats), Ed Lucas (at bats), Derek Dietrich (at bats), Rob Brantly (at bats), Adeiny Hechavarria (at bats), Jose Fernandez (innings), Tom Koehler (innings), A.J. Ramos (innings), Dan Jennings (service time)

Major League Opportunities in 2014
By Brian Creagh (@briancreagh)

Teams that lose 100 games in a season are assumed to have plenty of opportunities for playing time the following season. The Marlins are no exception. Heading into the offseason only Christian Yelich and Giancarlo Stanton locked up LF and RF, respectively. Marisnick showed the defensive capability to handle the starting CF gig but his offense could use some work. The Marlins won't be playing for much in 2014 so the position will be his to lose heading into spring training.

The entire infield is up for grabs with Adeiny Hechevarria looking like the only holdover in a starting role come spring training. The Marlins made a few moves early in free agency, as Jarrod Saltalamacchia will be the team's starting catcher for the next three seasons, and Rafael Furcal will attempt a comeback as the team's starting 2B. Third base still appears to be wide open and Jimmy Paredes, Donovan Solano and Ed Lucas should compete in spring training for the starting job. The Marlins appear close to adding Garrett Jones, which would all but guarantee a trade of Logan Morrison. Offense will still be tough to come by in 2014, but it should be drastically improved from 2013.

The starting rotation is a few months away from being a packed house. Jose Fernandez, Henderson Alvarez and Nate Eovaldi are mainstays, and Andrew Heaney, Justin Nicolino and Adam Conley could join the rotation sometime in 2014. Jacob Turner, and Tom Koehler also figure to be in the mix early until the reinforcements arrive. From a fantasy perspective, only Fernandez and Eovaldi figure to be of relevance until Heaney gets the promotion. The bullpen is a bit of a mess, but Steve Cishek will head into the season in the closer's role and there doesn't seem to too many challengers looking to dethrone him.

Top 10 Fantasy Prospects
By Jason Hunt(@jasonsbaseball)

Our top 10 fantasy prospect rankings are based upon standard 5x5 fantasy baseball leagues, with a balancing of ceiling and present value. While we are having discussions regarding these lists as a collective group, the top 10 fantasy prospect rankings are finalized by the writer listed above. Players are no longer considered prospects once they exceed either 130 at bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 days of service time in the Majors prior to September 1st.

Heaney was the Marlins' top draft pick in the 2012 draft, taken 9th overall out of Oklahoma State University. The team split his time that first season between the GCL and full season Low-A, striking out 30 and walking 6 across 27 innings pitched. He got a late start to his season this year due to a lat strain, and did not pitch until May 20th. Regardless, he was dominant this year between High-A and AA, striking out nearly a batter per inning and allowing just 76 hits in 95 innings pitched.

Heaney features a fastball which sits in the low 90s, but reports have it hitting as high as 97 at times. He gets good movement on the pitch, and also appears to be able to command the pitch very well. He pairs that with a slider, which is considered a plus offering, as well as a changeup which is considered at least average but, as with most prospects, could use some work before reaching the majors. He has a nice and easy delivery, which bodes well for his ability to repeat it throughout each start. There aren't any concerns really about his ability to stay in a rotation long term, although since his 95 innings this year are his highest total as a professional, there are questions about whether he can jump to a full workload within a year.

I wrote up Heaney before the season, and had this little chestnut of analysis:

Heaney seems a bit like a mixed bag for fantasy owners. Nearly every report I read other than Baseball America's thought that Heaney was an overdraft at the #9 overall pick, and that while he has a solid Major League ceiling, it isn't as high as you would hope for with that pick. The fact that he translates to a mid-rotation starting pitcher could be good, but the fact that his arsenal is not expected to translate into high strikeout totals downgrades him some for fantasy owners. We did not even discuss Heaney as a potential top 50 pitching prospect when we were preparing our rankings, and it doesn't really seem like we were too off-base with that. He's an interesting player, but someone to target in much deeper dynasty formats (14+ team, or NL-only).

Oops. Can't get 'em all right.

Heaney has the ceiling to be a #2 starter for the Marlins, which could play up a bit more given his likely home park. With Heaney, we could be looking at a top 30 starting pitcher, capable of providing nearly a strikeout per inning while posting solid numbers in ERA and WHIP. It remains to be seen whether the team will push him in the same manner that they pushed Jose Fernandez, especially given the limited innings he has thrown to this point. That said, we probably see Heaney at some point during the 2014 season, and now should be targeted in nearly all dynasty formats. He's a top 100 fantasy prospect for me, and anticipate him being in Miami by September.

Moran was the Marlins' top draft pick in this year's amateur draft out of the University of North Carolina, where he was the ACC player of the year.. He signed for a bonus of just over $3.5 million about a month after the draft, and was sent immediately to Low-A Greensboro, where he hit just under .300 over the last month and a half of the season. The team also sent him to the Arizona Fall League, but he struggled at the plate, which could be a result of the long season.

Moran's calling card is his hit tool, as he has shown an advanced approach at the plate and is expected to provide fantasy owners with a high batting average on a consistent basis. He starts from an open stance at the plate, and his swing is very clean and fluid from the left side. He makes a lot of contact and has shown an ability to take a walk already as well. He's not likely to provide speed as a professional, but it sounds like he's not completely a baseclogger either.

The questions about Moran begin with his ability to hit for power. Moran plays a position that is traditionally associated with power hitters, and while it's not a requirement, there seems to be some varying reports on how much power he could show down the line. He's not likely to turn into a big power threat, with his ceiling more likely to end up in the 20-25 home run range at best. More likely, he ends up in the 13-17 range on a consistent basis, and isn't likely to be helped out by his home park. On defense, Moran is anticipated to turn into at least an average third baseman, and doesn't really have a lot blocking him from the majors at the position right now.

Moran is considered an extremely safe bet to hit for a high batting average (around .300) on a consistent basis, with solid but not spectacular power. He's also likely to have more value in leagues where OBP is a category, as well as in points leagues given his lower strikeout rates. I wouldn't expect him to reach the majors in 2014, but I think it's a distinct possibility that he's the opening day starter in 2015.

Marisnick was drafted by the Blue Jays in the 3rd round of the 2009 draft out of a California high school, and really announced himself to fantasy players after a breakout 2011 season. In 118 games at Low-A Lansing that year, Marisnick hit 14 home runs, drove in 77, stole 37 bases in 45 attempts, and hit .320. He was the main prospect acquired by the Marlins in the great salary shedding last offseason, and split his season this year primarily between AA and even getting an extended look over 40 games in the bigs.

Marisnick is likely the toolsiest prospect left in the minors for the Marlins, as he could potentially be a five category contributor while playing potentially elite defense in center field. He is ready to contribute in the majors defensively, and has also shown plus speed despite it not always translating into high stolen base totals thus far. He is considered to have the potential to provide solid power totals, but it doesn't translate fully due to limitations surrounding his approach. His hit tool has the potential to be above average, but a lack of contact (~23% strikeout rate) and a nearly 3:1 K/BB ratio in the minors will likely keep him from reaching that full potential.

Marisnick can be a very valuable fantasy player down the line, with possibilities of 20 HR/30 SB seasons to go along with a solid batting average (.265-.270 range), but those numbers are far from a guarantee. The approach could derail those numbers to some extent, but Marisnick's defense will still keep him in the majors for a long time. With a crowded outfield currently at the major league level, look for Marisnick to return to the minors to start the 2014 campaign, and more likely return at some point in the year.

A second round pick out of a Florida high school by the Blue Jays in 2010, Nicolino moved through the Blue Jays' system with their other top pitching prospects at the time, Noah Syndergaard and Aaron Sanchez. While he doesn't have their potential ceiling, he had an excellent season at Low-A in 2012, striking out 119 and walking just 21 in 124 innings there. He was also included in the big trade with the Blue Jays, and the Marlins sent him to High-A Jupiter to start the 2013 campaign. After an impressive 18 starts there, he finished the year up with six starts at AA Jacksonville.

Nicolino may not have the highest ceiling in the system, but he is a near certainty to click at the major league level because of his high floor. He features a low-90s fastball, which he pairs with a curveball and changeup which could both be average offerings. The thing that jumps out with Nicolino is his excellent command, which helps his repertoire play up past its' expected level.

Nicolino sits as a high probability middle of the rotation starting pitcher with the potential to be better than that at times. His command is going to help out fantasy owners, even if the strikeout totals don't end up as high as a result. He could debut at some point during the 2014 season, with 2015 being more likely.

A left handed starter drafted in 2011 out of Washington State, Adam Conley has moved through the Marlins' system quickly. He started this year in AA after pitching at both A-ball levels in 2012, and notched 129 strikeouts against 37 walks in 138 innings pitched.

Conley is considered to have one of the better fastballs in the whole system, sitting in the mid-90s and touching even higher at times. He features both an above-average changeup and an above-average slider, and gets good movement on his pitches as well. His delivery is a bit unique, but doesn't seem to be causing him any specific control issues.

I would expect Conley to start the season at AAA New Orleans, and the Marlins can give him enough time to continue to develop. He will likely be up at some point during the 2014 season, and could potentially provide near a strikeout per inning and solid if not spectacular ratios. He profiles as a potential mid-rotation starting pitcher, which could lead to a solid back-end option in 12+ team leagues with a full season of work.

Acquired from the Tigers as a part of last year's Anibal Sanchez trade, Brian Flynn started his season back in AA before making 23 starts at AAA and another 4 in the majors in September. The starts in the majors weren't really reflective of his performance overall, which was very solid in a hitters' league (PCL).

The first thing that stands out about Flynn is his height (6'7"), which allows him to get good downward plane on his pitches but also causes him some difficulties with repeating his delivery consistently. His fastball sits in the low 90s, and he also features an above-average slider as his main breaking ball. He is also working on a changeup, which reports project to be an average pitch in the majors, giving him the possibility of three average or better offerings.

Flynn doesn't really have much left to prove at AAA, so it wouldn't surprise me if the team took a shot with him in the rotation to start the spring. They don't necessarily have a spot for him, so he will likely have to pitch well in the spring to nail that down. I think Flynn can be a back of the fantasy rotation starter in deeper formats, especially given that he'll be making half his starts in Miami. To me, he appears right now as an interesting streaming option in shallower leagues, as he has the potential to post a great start each time out. The part that is likely to drive you nuts is that he won't always do that, or necessarily even come close to that either.

#7 Anthony DeSclafani (RHP)
FANTASY STATISTICS (ALL LEVELS)
W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
9	0	2.65	1.12	115
SECONDARY STATISTICS
IP	HR/9	GO/AO	BB%	K%
129	0.70	1.52	4.4%	22.2%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE ON 1/1/2014	B/T	ROSTER STATUS		LEVELS
21	R/R	Not on 40 Man Roster (Protect After 2014 Season)		A+, AA

Another prospect involved in the trade with the Blue Jays, DeSclafani was a 6th round draft pick by the Jays out of the University of Florida in 2011. He spent 2012 at Low-A Lansing with Nicolino and crew, striking out 92 and walking 25 over 123 innings pitched. He split his 2013 season between the Marlins' High-A and AA affiliates, pitching well at both stops.

DeSclafani features a fastball in the low 90s, as well as an average slider and a changeup which has the potential to be average. He'll also throw a curveball from time to time, but it sounds like it's not likely to be much of an offering. He has shown excellent control to this point, and reports on his command are extremely complimentary as well. The delivery appears to have some effort, but not so much as to limit his role specifically.

DeSclafani has the potential to be a mid-rotation starting pitcher, which would translate to a back-end fantasy rotation in all likelihood. There are questions long-term about whether he will stay in the rotation, as his repertoire would work well out of the bullpen as well. He gets good reviews on his makeup and specifically his competitiveness, so either option could end up working out well for him long term. He could start the year at AAA, but a return to AA for at least half the season seems more likely. Look for DeSclafani to debut sometime in 2015, regardless of the role he's in.

#8 Jesus Solorzano (OF)
FANTASY STATISTICS (ALL LEVELS)
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.285	72	15	66	33
SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
523	0.325	0.450	4.6%	21.2%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE ON 1/1/2014	B/T	ROSTER STATUS		LEVELS
23	R/R	Not on 40 Man Roster (Protect This Offseason)		A

Solorzano was signed by the Marlins out of Venezuela back in 2009, and spent the first two seasons of his professional career in the Dominican Summer League before playing in two different short season leagues during the 2011 and 2012 seasons. He made his full season debut this year with Greensboro, and hit for average, power and provided stolen bases all while playing all three outfield positions.

Solorzano is another prospect to dream on, as he has shown the ability to hit for a high average, hit for solid to above-average power, and steal a ton of bases. He is considered a five-tool prospect, but there are questions about whether he will be able to continue this type of performance as he moves up the system. His walk rate leaves a lot to be desired, but I'd be curious to see more information about whether it is a specific approach which can be adjusted. It appears that he is eligible to be selected in the Rule V draft this offseason, but I don't know if someone takes a chance on him as a defensive fifth outfielder and potentially stunt his development given his age.

If it all comes together, you have an outfielder that can provide double digit power and steals with a solid batting average, but with Solorzano the odds of that seem low. I'll be interested to see what happens this year, as he is likely to head to High-A to start the season and could be forced to move quickly given his age.

#9 Trevor Williams (RHP)
FANTASY STATISTICS (ALL LEVELS)
W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
0	0	2.38	1.15	24
SECONDARY STATISTICS
IP	HR/9	GO/AO	BB%	K%
34	0.00	2.25	5.5%	16.6%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE ON 1/1/2014	B/T	ROSTER STATUS		LEVELS
21	R/R	Not on 40 Man Roster (Protect After 2016 Season)		Rk, A-, A

The Marlins drafted Williams in the 2nd round this year out of Arizona State, and gave him a bonus of just over $1.25 million to sign on the dotted line. Williams spent most of his season with the Marlins' short season NY-Penn League affiliate, but also made a start at Low-A before the end of the year. Overall, he struck out 24 and walked 8 in 34 innings while getting a ton of ground ball outs as well.

Williams features a fastball which sits in the low 90s, and pairs it with an average changeup as well as a show-me slider and curveball. He was never really a big strikeout guy during college (6.13 per 9 IP), but has always had excellent control. He has a solid build to provide innings as a starting pitcher, but it seems like the results don't always match up with what you would expect of that frame.

Williams profiles as a back of the rotation starting pitcher in all likelihood, but there is some upside if he can improve his secondary offerings. He can be a nice back-end starting pitcher for fantasy either way, and more likely a streaming option if he remains as a fastball-changeup pitcher primarily.

#10 Avery Romero (2B)
FANTASY STATISTICS (ALL LEVELS)
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.276	32	3	35	3
SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
275	0.341	0.391	6.9%	14.2%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE ON 1/1/2014	B/T	ROSTER STATUS		LEVELS
20	R/R	Not on 40 Man Roster (Protect After 2016 Season)		A-, A

Romero was drafted by the Marlins in the 3rd round of the 2012 draft, and signed for a bonus of $700K. He split his time that year between two short season levels, as well as playing both second and third base. He returned to the NY Penn League to start 2013, appearing in 56 games there before a late season promotion to Greensboro.

Coming into the draft, Romero was known for being a solid hitter, although not necessarily one with a specific carrying tool. Reports point to him having above-average power, but as of now that hasn't shown through in-game. It could turn into double-digit home runs down the line, which would have solid value at second base. The organization decided to move him to second base permanently, and it sounds like his defense there is expected to be at least average, which helps his profile play a bit more.

At this point, we are really just hoping that the reports on Romero's power potential come together and manifest in game on a consistent basis. He'll likely return to full season Low-A to start the season, and should hopefully give us a better idea of whether things will come together for him. He's probably worth a look in deep NL-only leagues right now, as the position will limit his value to some extent as well as his profile. Best case scenario seems to be a solid hitter (.270-.280) with 10-12 home runs and solid runs and RBI totals. We should have a better idea after the 2014 season how likely that is to happen, but he'll still be just 20 years old in full-season ball.

Other Interesting Prospects
By Jason Hunt (@jasonsbaseball)

Jacob Realmuto - A better real life prospect than fantasy one, Realmuto's ticket to the majors is going to be punched with his defense. He could provide decent power numbers if he were a starter, which became a lot less likely with the signing of Jarrod Saltalamacchia to a three year contract. Realistically, he could be up as the backup catcher in late 2014/early 2015, but isn't likely to be fantasy relevant without playing time.

Kyle Jensen - Jensen is an interesting name to watch if only because of the power potential. He hit 28 home runs last year between AA and AAA, but it came with a poor batting average and minimal speed as well. Add in that he turns 26 in May, and there's not much left to project for Jensen. A name potentially worth watching in NL-only leagues, but only as a reserve pick late in drafts.

Viosergy Rosa - Another big power producer, Rosa hit 23 home runs and drew 74 walks in 133 games at Low-A Greensboro in 2013. It's a bit hard to project him toward a major league career path as of now given that he will be 24 this year and has not escaped Low-A yet, but another year of power production could move him onto this list next year.

Brent Keys - Keys led the Marlins' minor leaguers with a .341 batting average this year, and his hit tool is going to be what gets him to the majors, if it happens. However, it's a truly empty batting average, as he's not expected to provide any power and minimal speed. His defense isn't considered good enough to let that profile play in an everyday role, which makes it hard to see him providing fantasy value in the future either unfortunately. Regardless, he was added to the 40-man roster, and as such could be in line for a call up if the team runs short on outfielders for some reason.

For more on the Marlins, be sure to check out SBNation's Fish Stripes. For more on the minor leagues and prospects in general, check out SBNation's Minor League Ball.

About the Authors

Jason Hunt is a contributing writer for Fake Teams, specializing in the minor leagues and prospects.
Follow him on Twitter @jasonsbaseball

Andrew Ball is a contributing writer for Beyond the Box Score and Fake Teams, specializing in fantasy baseball and the minor leagues.
Follow him on Twitter @Andrew_Ball

Brian Creagh is a contributing writer for Fake Teams, specializing in fantasy baseball and the minor leagues.
Follow him on Twitter @BrianCreagh

Matt Mattingly is a contributing writer for Fake Teams, specializing in fantasy baseball and the minor leagues.
Follow him on Twitter @MattMattingly81

Sources

Baseball America
Baseball Prospectus
Baseball Reference
Fangraphs
Fish Stripes
Vimeo
Youtube