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Saturday was a quiet day for trades and free agent signings, so my mind started thinking about 2014 fantasy drafts, specifically guys who could be late round stolen base candidates. Predicting stolen bases is easy to a certain extent, as you know from year to year who the main stolen base targets will be. But, who are the guys who can surprise in the stolen base category.
So, I headed over the FanGraphs and exported data for all hitters with more than 200 plate appearances in 2013.
I added some data points I wanted to look at including stolen base attempts, stolen base efficiency percentage (stolen bases/stolen base attempts), and OBP. I then parsed this list for only those hitters who had a stolen base efficiency of 75% or higher, and an OBP of .325 or higher. Why so low? The MLB average OBP was just .318 in 2013, so these hitters are better than league average at getting on base. I also added a column indicating GREEN light or RED light for hitters who met this criteria. Here is the list that resulted:
|
Name |
Team |
SB |
CS |
Total SB Attempts |
SB Eff. |
OBP |
Green Light/Red Light |
|
Christian Yelich |
10 |
0 |
10 |
100.0% |
0.374 |
GREEN |
|
|
Jonathan Lucroy |
9 |
1 |
10 |
90.0% |
0.343 |
GREEN |
|
|
Chris Denorfia |
11 |
0 |
11 |
100.0% |
0.340 |
GREEN |
|
|
Jayson Werth |
10 |
1 |
11 |
90.9% |
0.404 |
GREEN |
|
|
Hanley Ramirez |
10 |
2 |
12 |
83.3% |
0.411 |
GREEN |
|
|
Kyle Seager |
9 |
3 |
12 |
75.0% |
0.340 |
GREEN |
|
|
Michael Cuddyer |
10 |
3 |
13 |
76.9% |
0.398 |
GREEN |
|
|
Ben Zobrist |
11 |
3 |
14 |
78.6% |
0.360 |
GREEN |
|
|
Alex Gordon |
11 |
3 |
14 |
78.6% |
0.337 |
GREEN |
|
|
Carl Crawford |
Dodgers |
15 |
4 |
19 |
78.9% |
0.333 |
GREEN |
|
David Wright |
17 |
3 |
20 |
85.0% |
0.400 |
GREEN |
|
|
Michael Brantley |
17 |
4 |
21 |
81.0% |
0.332 |
GREEN |
|
|
Dustin Pedroia |
Red Sox |
17 |
5 |
22 |
77.3% |
0.377 |
GREEN |
|
Carlos Gonzalez |
Rockies |
21 |
3 |
24 |
87.5% |
0.372 |
GREEN |
|
Shane Victorino |
Red Sox |
21 |
3 |
24 |
87.5% |
0.344 |
GREEN |
|
Hunter Pence |
22 |
3 |
25 |
88.0% |
0.344 |
GREEN |
|
|
Coco Crisp |
21 |
5 |
26 |
80.8% |
0.339 |
GREEN |
|
|
Craig Gentry |
24 |
3 |
27 |
88.9% |
0.376 |
GREEN |
|
|
Ian Desmond |
Nationals |
21 |
6 |
27 |
77.8% |
0.334 |
GREEN |
|
Jordan Schafer |
22 |
6 |
28 |
78.6% |
0.332 |
GREEN |
|
|
Jimmy Rollins |
22 |
6 |
28 |
78.6% |
0.326 |
GREEN |
|
|
Brett Gardner |
24 |
8 |
32 |
75.0% |
0.342 |
GREEN |
|
|
Nate McLouth |
30 |
7 |
37 |
81.1% |
0.329 |
GREEN |
|
|
Jason Kipnis |
Indians |
30 |
7 |
37 |
81.1% |
0.368 |
GREEN |
|
Jarrod Dyson |
Royals |
34 |
6 |
40 |
85.0% |
0.326 |
GREEN |
|
Mike Trout |
33 |
7 |
40 |
82.5% |
0.446 |
GREEN |
|
|
Carlos Gomez |
Brewers |
40 |
7 |
47 |
85.1% |
0.341 |
GREEN |
|
Everth Cabrera |
Padres |
37 |
12 |
49 |
75.5% |
0.347 |
GREEN |
|
Alex Rios |
- - - |
42 |
7 |
49 |
85.7% |
0.326 |
GREEN |
|
Jacoby Ellsbury |
Red Sox |
52 |
4 |
56 |
92.9% |
0.357 |
GREEN |
|
Jean Segura |
Brewers |
44 |
13 |
57 |
77.2% |
0.329 |
GREEN |
From this list, I looked at only those hitters who had less than 20 stolen base attempts in 2013, and here are the results:
|
Name |
Team |
SB |
CS |
Total SB Attempts |
SB Eff. |
OBP |
Green Light/Red Light |
|
Christian Yelich |
Marlins |
10 |
0 |
10 |
100.0% |
0.374 |
GREEN |
|
Jonathan Lucroy |
Brewers |
9 |
1 |
10 |
90.0% |
0.343 |
GREEN |
|
Chris Denorfia |
Padres |
11 |
0 |
11 |
100.0% |
0.340 |
GREEN |
|
Jayson Werth |
Nationals |
10 |
1 |
11 |
90.9% |
0.404 |
GREEN |
|
Hanley Ramirez |
Dodgers |
10 |
2 |
12 |
83.3% |
0.411 |
GREEN |
|
Kyle Seager |
Mariners |
9 |
3 |
12 |
75.0% |
0.340 |
GREEN |
|
Michael Cuddyer |
Rockies |
10 |
3 |
13 |
76.9% |
0.398 |
GREEN |
|
Ben Zobrist |
Rays |
11 |
3 |
14 |
78.6% |
0.360 |
GREEN |
|
Alex Gordon |
Royals |
11 |
3 |
14 |
78.6% |
0.337 |
GREEN |
|
Carl Crawford |
Dodgers |
15 |
4 |
19 |
78.9% |
0.333 |
GREEN |
I have never used this analysis in my preseason draft prep before, so it is new. I want to see if we can predict hitters who can exceed expectations in stolen bases in the coming year. It may prove to be futile, but I had to give it a shot.
The results of the above analysis is based on the idea that hitters who get on base at an above league average rate, who are efficient base stealers, and for some reason or another did not attempt many stolen bases in the prior year, and could outperform expectations in the following year.
Some of the hitters above aren't what you call real speed threats. It is pretty obvious guys like Jonathan Lucroy, Michael Cuddyer, and Chris Denorfia won't be running more in 2014. I can see Christian Yelich, Jayson Werth, and Carl Crawford doubling their stolen base totals from 2013, assuming all stay healthy. There is a health risk with Werth and Crawford, so that is something to consider on draft day as well.
